Saturday
Jul252009
A Turning Point in Iran: The Eclipse of the President
Saturday, July 25, 2009 at 7:51
Iran Timeline: How the Supreme Leader Vanquished His President
The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in little more than name. Last night's dramatic turn of events, with the First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "resigning", was the most public of humiliations for Ahmadinejad, even if many in the non-Iranian media were slow to figure out what had occurred.
We were saying as early as 16 June that the President was a relatively weak actor in the post-election play. His position was almost completely dependent on the Supreme Leader's decision to declare his electoral "victory", and after his far too-bold declaration of triumph over the "dust" of his opposition on 13-14 June, he quickly disappeared from the central stage. There were halting attempts to regain some authority, such as a national television address and an appearance in Mashaad, but these turned from serious political drama into farce. (In retrospect, the moment when a Giant Mysterious Bug defeated Ahmadinejad during his TV speech may be the symbolic moment when the President was put in his place, although the YouTube video of Mahmoud and his Multi-Coloured Charts should not be missed, either.)
Many in the media, however, especially in the "West", relied upon the simple formula of Supreme Leader + President = Regime, thus missing the reality of Ahmadinejad's parlous situation. Thus, it was only yesterday, when many journalists belatedly noticed Ayatollah Khamenei's opposition to the Rahim-Mashai appointment, that the President's weakness was exposed. This was not just a case of a Supreme Leader slapdown; Ahmadinejad had alienated a large number of his political and religious supporters. "Conservative" politicians, members of parliaments, senior clerices, and even students in the Basiji movement were publicly insisting that the Vice President be dismissed as soon as possible.
So exit Stage Right, Mahmoud, for your loss is our gain. With the apparent resolution of this dispute within the regime, the battlefront again becomes the extent of the opposition's challenge to the regime. Does the Green Movement and powerful figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani concentrate on the continued pounding of Ahmadinejad into "dust" or do they go further, calling for institutional change to reduce the Presidency to near-vassal status? I doubt that will be the case (no least because one Hashemi Rafsanjani may still have Presidential ambitions, either for himself or a close ally, as does one Mir Hossein Mousavi).
So how do the opposition leaders re-position the Presidency in relation to the Supreme Leader? And will the activists in the Movement, both behind the scenes and on the street, accept the extent of the reform?
Put bluntly, will the weakening of the President now lead to the prospect of the weakening of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in little more than name. Last night's dramatic turn of events, with the First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "resigning", was the most public of humiliations for Ahmadinejad, even if many in the non-Iranian media were slow to figure out what had occurred.We were saying as early as 16 June that the President was a relatively weak actor in the post-election play. His position was almost completely dependent on the Supreme Leader's decision to declare his electoral "victory", and after his far too-bold declaration of triumph over the "dust" of his opposition on 13-14 June, he quickly disappeared from the central stage. There were halting attempts to regain some authority, such as a national television address and an appearance in Mashaad, but these turned from serious political drama into farce. (In retrospect, the moment when a Giant Mysterious Bug defeated Ahmadinejad during his TV speech may be the symbolic moment when the President was put in his place, although the YouTube video of Mahmoud and his Multi-Coloured Charts should not be missed, either.)
Many in the media, however, especially in the "West", relied upon the simple formula of Supreme Leader + President = Regime, thus missing the reality of Ahmadinejad's parlous situation. Thus, it was only yesterday, when many journalists belatedly noticed Ayatollah Khamenei's opposition to the Rahim-Mashai appointment, that the President's weakness was exposed. This was not just a case of a Supreme Leader slapdown; Ahmadinejad had alienated a large number of his political and religious supporters. "Conservative" politicians, members of parliaments, senior clerices, and even students in the Basiji movement were publicly insisting that the Vice President be dismissed as soon as possible.
So exit Stage Right, Mahmoud, for your loss is our gain. With the apparent resolution of this dispute within the regime, the battlefront again becomes the extent of the opposition's challenge to the regime. Does the Green Movement and powerful figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani concentrate on the continued pounding of Ahmadinejad into "dust" or do they go further, calling for institutional change to reduce the Presidency to near-vassal status? I doubt that will be the case (no least because one Hashemi Rafsanjani may still have Presidential ambitions, either for himself or a close ally, as does one Mir Hossein Mousavi).
So how do the opposition leaders re-position the Presidency in relation to the Supreme Leader? And will the activists in the Movement, both behind the scenes and on the street, accept the extent of the reform?
Put bluntly, will the weakening of the President now lead to the prospect of the weakening of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
Reader Comments (3)
These questions may sound rhetorical, but I don't mean them that way-- I'd really like to know...
Is the repositioning of the presidency actual or is it just the matter of public acknowledgment? Was the real status of a president ever very different than it now is revealed to be (plus or minus a few degrees of freedom)?
Khamenei can be said to be redefining the formerly apolitical role of Supreme Leader, but, in my understanding, only the image is changing-- he avoided being overtly political till recently. Either way, he now is making sure that this change is irreversible... after prematurely validating the election results and ordering suppression of political demonstrations, he now publicly has interfered in a political appointment.
In every country there are political conveniences that many people accept but others reject. Here in the US, the concept of 'impartial' judges comes to mind. Then there are contradictions most people acknowledge, but we live with them, pruning back excess with occasional reform-- ex, the role of Congress & the power of lobbyists. I'm not suggesting that these examples are on the same order of magnitude as the current state of affairs in Iran-- just trying understand
Addendum:
Changes in image and perception can be as significant as a redefinition of roles. In either case there is a shift of power because people no longer see each other the same way. Relationships change... just look at the last year of the Bush II presidency.
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