Thursday
Jul162009
Iran: How Friday's Prayers Might Develop
Thursday, July 16, 2009 at 9:30
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani’s Prayers
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I was planning a full analysis, building on our morning update, of what might happen at the Friday prayers led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, but wiser minds have overtaken me. As we mentioned in the update, Maryam at Keeping the Change is outstanding in the assessment of a possible Rafsanjani move for compromise. Now an Enduring America correspondent has sent in a latest update with an equally convincing reading. (Some of this echoes the possibilities that Fintan Dunne and I discussed earlier this week: Rafsanjani, under the umbrella call for "unity", may set out possibilties through electoral reform, some "reformist" involvement in the Government, and the release of detainees.)
After reading these, my not-so-wise mind jumps ahead. If this is the path that Rafsanjani takes, what will be the reaction of the opposition politicians and protesters? And is our correspondent right that, irrespective of the statement tomorrow, no compromise is possible?
The speaker giving the introductory lecture to the Friday prayers has been changed. Previously the Friday Prayers organization declared that the Minister of Economics was supposed to give this lecture, subsequently it has been declared that Hojattoleslam Taghavi, the former Chairman of the Parliamentary Culture Committee, is replacing the minister.
This change in speakers is an important issue.
The introductory lecture is not a ritual part of Friday prayers, in contrast to Rafsanjani's speech, the Khotbeh. After the revolution these introductory lectures were introduced as a political complement to the prayers. These introductions played a myriad of roles: one role was to strengthen the message of the Khotbeh; conversely, these lectures could also give a forum to present the viewpoint of a faction other than that of the khotbeh speaker.
This change may be:
1) A tactical retreat by the Ahmadinejad faction.(An introductory lecture giving veiled threats and insinuations would allow ample room for rebuttal in the Khotbeh. On the other hand, a tame lecture by the Ahmadinejad faction would be tantamount to accepting defeat).
2) A signal that Rafsanjani is in a strong enough position to demand that the introductory lecture not be given by an Ahmadinejad spokesman, the Minister of Economics.
3) This is some kind of compromise effected behind closed doors, signalling the begining of a detente between the factions.
Personally, I do not think that option 3 is viable in the long run, even if Rafsanjani gives a warm and fuzzy speech as Maryam of Keeping the Change suggests. The reformers must be convinced by now that the Ahmadinejad faction abides by no rules, plays for the kill, and takes no prisoners. Any compromise will just be be treated by the Ahmadinejad and Khamenei factions as an oppurtunity to carry out their agenda for stifling reform. Indeed Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's daughter, in her most recent statements harshly criticized Khatami's policy of seeking a detente with Khamenei.
The wave of green is a second chance given to reformist politicians to redeem themselves and the concept of the Islamic Republic in the eyes of the Iranian public. It is a responsibility that I am sure has disturbed the nocturnal rest of many politicians, far more than a lack of sleep caused by the fear of persecution by the associates of Ahmadinejad and Khameini.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
I was planning a full analysis, building on our morning update, of what might happen at the Friday prayers led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, but wiser minds have overtaken me. As we mentioned in the update, Maryam at Keeping the Change is outstanding in the assessment of a possible Rafsanjani move for compromise. Now an Enduring America correspondent has sent in a latest update with an equally convincing reading. (Some of this echoes the possibilities that Fintan Dunne and I discussed earlier this week: Rafsanjani, under the umbrella call for "unity", may set out possibilties through electoral reform, some "reformist" involvement in the Government, and the release of detainees.)After reading these, my not-so-wise mind jumps ahead. If this is the path that Rafsanjani takes, what will be the reaction of the opposition politicians and protesters? And is our correspondent right that, irrespective of the statement tomorrow, no compromise is possible?
The speaker giving the introductory lecture to the Friday prayers has been changed. Previously the Friday Prayers organization declared that the Minister of Economics was supposed to give this lecture, subsequently it has been declared that Hojattoleslam Taghavi, the former Chairman of the Parliamentary Culture Committee, is replacing the minister.
This change in speakers is an important issue.
The introductory lecture is not a ritual part of Friday prayers, in contrast to Rafsanjani's speech, the Khotbeh. After the revolution these introductory lectures were introduced as a political complement to the prayers. These introductions played a myriad of roles: one role was to strengthen the message of the Khotbeh; conversely, these lectures could also give a forum to present the viewpoint of a faction other than that of the khotbeh speaker.
This change may be:
1) A tactical retreat by the Ahmadinejad faction.(An introductory lecture giving veiled threats and insinuations would allow ample room for rebuttal in the Khotbeh. On the other hand, a tame lecture by the Ahmadinejad faction would be tantamount to accepting defeat).
2) A signal that Rafsanjani is in a strong enough position to demand that the introductory lecture not be given by an Ahmadinejad spokesman, the Minister of Economics.
3) This is some kind of compromise effected behind closed doors, signalling the begining of a detente between the factions.
Personally, I do not think that option 3 is viable in the long run, even if Rafsanjani gives a warm and fuzzy speech as Maryam of Keeping the Change suggests. The reformers must be convinced by now that the Ahmadinejad faction abides by no rules, plays for the kill, and takes no prisoners. Any compromise will just be be treated by the Ahmadinejad and Khamenei factions as an oppurtunity to carry out their agenda for stifling reform. Indeed Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's daughter, in her most recent statements harshly criticized Khatami's policy of seeking a detente with Khamenei.
The wave of green is a second chance given to reformist politicians to redeem themselves and the concept of the Islamic Republic in the eyes of the Iranian public. It is a responsibility that I am sure has disturbed the nocturnal rest of many politicians, far more than a lack of sleep caused by the fear of persecution by the associates of Ahmadinejad and Khameini.