In Case You Missed It: Saudi Permission for Israel Attack on Iran?

LATEST Iran: Joe Biden’s “Green Light” and an Israeli Airstrike

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Editor's Note: In my focus on US Vice President Joe Biden's statements on Sunday about Israeli sovereignty and possible attack against Iran, I set aside the other big signal, which came out of Israel's favourite British PR firm, The Sunday Times of London. Thanks to Ali Yenidunya for reviing this.

Although Israel and Saudi Arabia have no formal relationships, theSunday Times reported that Saudi officials tacitly confirmed the use of its airspace in case of a possible Israeli air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. It is claimed that the head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, held secret talks with Saudis earlier this year. According to a diplomatic source quoted by the British newspaper, "The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia."

Publicly, the story was denied both by the Netanyahu Government and by Saudi officials. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office issued a statement on Sunday: “The Sunday Times report is fundamentally false and completely baseless."

Meanwhile, John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, stated that Israel's use of Saudi airspace was “entirely logical”. He added: “None of them [several Arab leaders he talked to during his recent visit to the Persian Gulf] would say anything about it publicly but they would certainly acquiesce in an overflight if the Israelis didn’t trumpet it as a big success.”

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2015 GMT: A very quiet few hours, with only a few ripples of political activity that we're chasing. So we've taken the opportunity to work on a mystery: who are the "Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom", who released a statement criticising the Government yesterday?

1400 GMT: A series of detentions and releases: Press TV reports that Iason Athanasiadis (Jason Fowden), a freelance journalist who reports for newspapers such as The Washington Times, has been released in a gesture of goodwill to Greece. The "mothers for mourning" demonstrators arrested in Laleh Park last week and supporters such as women's rights activist Zeynab Peyghambarzadeh have also been freed.

However, Jalal Mohammadou, another leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front Party, has been arrested, and there are reports that journalist Masood Bastani has been detained. Bastani's pregnant wife Mahsa Amirabadi, also a journalist, has been in prison since the early days of the crisis.

1200 GMT: A series of political developments: Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement says people must continue fighting despite the difficulties ahead. He notes that President Ahmadinejad has asked officials to find Neda Agha Soltan's killer while some of those same forces have killed at least 19 other people and attacked dormitories and houses."

The "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi is forming a new politcal party, while reformist advisor Alireza Beheshti has called on the Iranian Parliament to dismiss President Ahmadinejad.

There are also reports that politician Saeed Hajjarian, who is disabled and in poor health, has been transferred from Evin prison to a hospital in Tehran.

1030 GMT: Today's Washington Post finally catches up with the story, more than 24 hours old, of the criticisms of the election posted by the Mousavi campaign:
[blockquote] In a 24-page document posted on his Web site, Mousavi's special committee studying election fraud accused influential Ahmadinejad supporters of handing out cash bonuses and food, increasing wages, printing millions of extra ballots and other acts in the run-up to the vote.

The committee, whose members were appointed by Mousavi, said the state did everything in its power to get Ahmadinejad reelected, including using military forces and government planes to support his campaign....

The report released by Mousavi pointed out that the Interior Ministry, which counted the votes, is headed by Sadegh Mahsouli, a longtime friend of Ahmadinejad. The secretary of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, had publicly supported Ahmadinejad, as had six others on the 12-member council despite a law requiring them to remain impartial, according to the report.

"The law here was completely broken," said Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, a top Mousavi campaign official. "What these documents prove is that the two entities that organized the elections were biased and in favor of one candidate."[/blockquote]

1000 GMT: Reports, via British Foreign Office, that one local staffer of the British Embassy in Iran will be released but one will remain in custody.

0710 GMT: Press TV English Irony Watch.

Number of minutes given in morning news update to Israel's detention of former US Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney: 5.
Number of minutes given to Iran's detention of hundreds: 0.

0600 GMT: The pattern is now woven in Iran: the daily demonstrations continue, scattered and limited in size by the State's restrictions, but still very present. However, there is unlikely to be high-profile movement until Thursday, with the planned mass march in Tehran.

On Saturday, supporters and mothers of the killed and detained gathered in Laleh Park; at least one prominent women's rights activist, Zeynab Peyghambarzadeh, was arrested. At Kamran University, a non-violent protest was marred by the reported death of a faculty member shot in the head.

It was a quieter day for opposition leaders, with no significant statements. Support did come from the Association of Instructors and Researchers at the seminary in Qom, with their statement calling the Government illegitimate. Meanwhile, a lawyer for jailed reformist leaders said they would be tried on charges of threatening national security leaders.

The regime, including Ahmadinejad also kept a lower profile on Saturday. News continued to be dominated by Friday's threats to prosecute "enemies" from British Embassy staff to Mir Hossein Mousavi. President Ahmadinejad's reported national broadcast after the evening news, if it ever took place, has left no ripples. Instead, his rather silly challenge to President Obama --- let's have a debate at the United Nations --- filled Iranian media space.

So the most significant intervention came from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, as he spoke to detainees' families. This was not a call for open resistance, but a more measured re-assertion that the election process had been corrupted. Rafsanjani's goal? Continue to avoid a conflict with the Supreme Leader while putting pressure on President Ahmadinejad.

Overseas, a bit of disturbing silliness is going on. The Israelis are stirring up the image of the Iranian nuclear threat, with the prominent spokesman (now Ambassador to the US) Michael Oren talking of a Tehran bomb wiping out Israel "within seconds", and The Sunday Times of London --- a regular channel for Tel Aviv's propaganda --- claiming that Saudi Arabia has sanctioned an Israeli attack on Iran by allowing the use of its airspace.

Iran: Did Joe Biden Just "Green Light" an Israeli Air Strike?

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On Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden was granting ABC News a showpiece interview during his stay in Iraq. He began with comments on this country, insisting the US would hope to its timetable of withdrawal of combat forces by 2011, and then turned to neighbouring Iran. Initially, he held the Obama line keeping engagement with Tehran open while condemining the post-election violence.

Then, however, Biden ventured into uncharted political waters:

HOST GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it pretty clear that he agreed with President Obama to give until the end of the year for this whole process of engagement to work. After that, he’s prepared to make matters into his own hands.

Is that the right approach?

BIDEN: Look, Israel can determine for itself — it’s a sovereign nation — what’s in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Whether we agree or not?

BIDEN: Whether we agree or not. They’re entitled to do that. Any sovereign nation is entitled to do that. But there is no pressure from any nation that’s going to alter our behavior as to how to proceed.

What we believe is in the national interest of the United States, which we, coincidentally, believe is also in the interest of Israel and the whole world. And so there are separate issues.

If the Netanyahu government decides to take a course of action different than the one being pursued now, that is their sovereign right to do that. That is not our choice.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But just to be clear here, if the Israelis decide Iran is an existential threat, they have to take out the nuclear program, militarily the United States will not stand in the way?

BIDEN: Look, we cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do when they make a determination, if they make a determination that they’re existentially threatened and their survival is threatened by another country.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You say we can’t dictate, but we can, if we choose to, deny over-flight rights here in Iraq. We can stand in the way of a military strike.

BIDEN: I’m not going to speculate, George, on those issues, other than to say Israel has a right to determine what’s in its interests, and we have a right and we will determine what’s in our interests.

So did the US Vice President just say that Washington would stand aside in the event of an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities? The Jerusalem Post certainly thinks so: within minutes of the interview, it was headlining, "Biden: US will not stand in Israel's way on Iranian issue." So does Ha'aretz: "Biden: U.S. won't stop Israeli strike on Iran."

Biden has been known to speak carelessly --- indeed, he's a Daily Show favourite for going verbally off the rails. So maybe he meant to say that Israel would have to make its own determination, and then the US would have to decide whether it would approve of Tel Aviv's action. However, his line that "we cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do...if they make a determination that they’re existentially threatened" seems to be a de facto bow-down to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rhetoric, if not an actual green light for Israeli operations.

And that in turn means that Biden has just bought into Israel's Iran-first strategy, which was precisely what his President had been trying to avoid through recent months and in the midst of the Israeli settlements issue.

So, if Joe misspoke, the White House better un-misspoke pretty quickly. Otherwise, it gets the worst of all worlds. Its Middle East strategy stalls, and Israel is emboldened to think of the military course of action. Oh, yes, and Iran's regime gets the perfect soundbite to say that the "foreign enemies" are workening together for regime change.

Video: "An Iranian Atomic Bomb Can Wipe Israel off the Map in a Matter of Seconds"

Iran: Did Joe Biden Just “Green Light” an Israeli Air Strike?

On Thursday, speaking to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic magazine, the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, claimed that an Iranian atomic bomb can “wipe Israel off the map in a matter of seconds.”



Oren did address the key immediate issue in US-Israeli relations: “The Israeli and American sides are working earnestly, ardently to try to find a compromise over the question of the degree to which construction can continue in settlements to accord what we call the normal life. And I am confident that we will find a solution for this.”

However, Oren just as quickly tried to shift attention to Iran, rather than Palestine, as the question that needed resolution: “I never said settlements are not an issue… but they're not the issue.” While the Netanyahu Government continues to hold out against any local concession, it will look for action against Tehran's "existential threat": "Everyone is waiting to see what will come out of this, but while we're waiting, while we're watching, the [nuclear] clock is ticking.”

To learn more about “the Iranian threat", one can read Oren’s own words from May 2009:

The principal sponsor of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is inextricably linked to the terrorist threat. But when the Islamic Republic achieves nuclear weapons-capability—as early as this year, according to Israeli intelligence estimates—the threat will amplify manifold.

A nuclear-armed Iran creates not one but several existential threats. The most manifest emanates from Iran’s routinely declared desire to “wipe Israel off the map,” and from the fact that cold war calculi of nuclear deterrence through mutually assured destruction may not apply to Islamist radicals eager for martyrdom. Some Israeli experts predict that the Iranian leadership would be willing to sacrifice 50 percent of their countrymen in order to eradicate Israel.

Beyond the perils of an Iranian first-strike attack against Israel, the possibility exists that Iran will transfer its nuclear capabilities to terrorist groups, which will then unleash them on Israel via the country’s porous ports and border crossings.

A nuclear Iran will also deny Israel the ability to respond to terrorist attacks: in response to an Israeli retaliation against Hezbollah, for example, Iran would go on nuclear alert, causing widespread panic in Israel and the collapse of its economy. Finally, and most menacing, many Middle Eastern states have declared their intention to develop nuclear capabilities of their own once Iran acquires the bomb.

Israel will swiftly find itself in a profoundly unstable nuclear neighborhood prone to violent revolutions and miscalculations leading to war. As former Labor Party minister Efraim Sneh says, under such circumstances, all Israelis who can leave the country will.

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2110 GMT: According to his son, pro-reform journalist Isa Saharkhiz has been seized and taken to an undisclosed location.

2015 GMT:Reports that women's rights activist Zeynab Peyghambarzadeh was arrested today in the "Mothers of Martyrs" rally in Laleh Park.

2000 GMT: Now This is Interesting. According to Iran Labor News Agency, Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a meeting with the families of detainees, has said post-election events had caused "bitterness" while denying there was a power struggle in the Islamic state: "I don't think that (anybody with a) vigilant conscience is satisfied with the current situation."

Rafsanjani's manoeuvre should be seen as an attempt to get as much political leverage as possible while distancing himself from any call for massive change: "I hope with good management and wisdom the issues would be settled in the next days and the situation could improve ... We should think about protecting the system's long-term interests."

So Iran's ultimate politician is not going to make any challenge to the Supreme Leader. But here is the unknown from the interview: what does he propose as the fate of President Ahmadinejad?

1805 GMT: We're waiting to get details from a reported national TV broadcast by the Iranian President after the evening news. Meanwhile, here's a bit of political humour from Mr Ahmadinejad:

Addressing Iranian heads of medical universities on Saturday, President Ahmadinejad offered to debate President Obama at the United Nations headquarters in New York before the eyes of all nations of the world.

Given that the legitimacy of the 12 June election has yet to be accepted by a significant portion of the Iranian population, let alone the international community, we can only presume that Mr Ahmadinejad made the offer with a very wide smile on his face.

1650 GMT: Etemade Melli has published a lengthy account of Mehdi Karroubi's meetings with the families of detainees, including former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

1630 GMT: Another intervention in the clerical debate. The Assembly of Instructors and Researchers at the seminary in Qom have issued a statement calling the Government illegitimate.

1330 GMT: Lawyer Saleh Nikbakht says that Iranian authorities are going to try detained reformist leaders and Newsweek journalist Maziar Bahari on charges on endangering national security. Those facing trial include former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, former Deputy Minister of Economics Mohsen Safaei Farahani, former Presidential spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, and former Minister of Industry Behzad Nabavi.

1300 GMT: Irony Alert. Iran's Press TV English spends several minutes on the "illegal detention" of former US Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and other activists in Israel and, with apparent innocence, never mentions the possibility of "illegal detentions" closer to home.

Later in the broadcast, Press TV spends an excruciating five minutes, propped up by British journalist Yvonne Ridley, on its full and fair coverage of the post-election conflict and the contrasting intrigue and manipulation of the BBC.

1245 GMT: We're waiting for any news on the "protest in the parks" by mothers of the detained and killed and by other members of the opposition campaign.

Meanwhile, Fintan Dunne has picked up on Robert Dreyfuss's challenging article in The Nation, "Iran's Green Wave". Dreyfuss, who was in Iran in the run-up to the election, is dramatic in his analysis, "A victory by the opposition--as unlikely as it appears in the wake of the regime's crackdown--might let in a lot of fresh air....It's that scenario that Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their IRGC and Basij allies are determined to resist at all costs. And they're prepared to unleash Tiananmen Square levels of violence to make sure it doesn't happen."

Indeed, I think is over-dramatic, both in the portrayal of the aims of the challenge to the election process and its aftermath and in the easy invocation of "Tiananmen Square". As an observation by an empassioned observer who had first-hand experience of the excitement up to the 12 June crisis, however, it's well worth a read.

1030 GMT: As always, Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summary on Anonymous Iran is worth a read. Most of the developments have also been reported here, but this information is new to us and of possible significance:

The main University of Sistan o Baluchistan has been shut-down by the government, according to unconfirmed reports. Furthermore, students from the university were dragged out of their dorms and sent home....The Association of Iranian University Graduates has released a statement claiming that, “the government was out to suppress opposition by any means possible escalating from the rigged elections.” Dozens of Iranian university professors have a signed a letter expressing deep anger for the attacks made by security forces on Iranian universities and students.

0945 GMT: More on yesterday's story that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had declined to lead Friday prayers in Tehran. Media close to Rafsanjani report today that this indicates Rafsanjani is "resigning" from his clerical and political roles.

0910 GMT: More on the Manoeuvring Amongst the Clerics. Friday prayers in Qom, the religious centre of Iran, offer an important clue to a "middle ground" solution. Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini, who is also a leading member of the Assembly of Experts, said "errors had occurred" during the election and called on all four Presidential candidates to "come together and give help and cooperation".

0900 GMT: Piling on the Pressure. In an editorial in the "conservative" newspaper Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, an advisor to the Supreme Leader, has accused Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami of "horrible crimes and treason" and added, ""It has to be asked whether the actions of (Mousavi and his supporters) are in response to instructions by American authorities." Shariatmadari asserts that Mousavi is trying to "escape punishment for murdering innocent people, holding riots, cooperating with foreigners and acting as America's fifth column inside the country."

0845 GMT: Nothing to See Here. Go Away. Today's coverage on the Press TV website of the situation in Iran?

"Tokyo has taken a neutral stance towards the recent post-election unrest in Iran, undermining the mainstream portrayal of the events in Tehran" and....

“Western countries have now realized their stance on the Iranian elections was undoubtedly out of line,” head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Boroujerdi said.

Not a single word on the site about the internal political manoeuvres, either of the regime or the opposition campaign.