The Latest from Iran (26 July): Four Days to The Green Movement's Next Wave

The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

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2115 GMT: Meanwhile, Rafsanjani Plays It Cool. Amidst the Government chaos, the former President is playing down talk of a serious rift within the regime. According to Mehr News Agency, Rafsanjani praised the Supreme Leader, "He is a progressive and forward-looking thinker in different subjects. The propaganda by the foreign media who try to suggest that there is a power struggle in the top level of the regime is unfair injustice to the Islamic revolution."

The statement appears to be a continuation of Rafsanjani's strategy to show allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei while manoeuvring against a weakened President: "I have hope in the supreme leader to solve the current problems based on his knowledge and experience and I still stick to the solutions I offered in the Friday prayer."

With these comments, Rafsanjani is also maintaining his position against the "hard-line" members of the Assembly of Experts, who attempted to undermine him in a statement earlier this week.

2100 GMT: Well, This is a Fine Mess. Conflicting reports all night over the state of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Some accounts now say that the President fired only Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and has not dismissed the other three (Culture, Health, and Labour); Ahmadinejad apparently realised he would face a vote of confidence in Parliament if all four ministers were removed from office.

Other accounts say Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi resigned in protest. Still others say both Ejeie and Saffar-Harandi were sacked.

1700 GMT: Confusion. There are reports that President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn the dismissal of Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi (and presumably other ministers), as he did not realise that the Cabinet could no longer meet without a vote of confidence from the Iranian Parliament.

1642 GMT: Our correspondent Mani confirms our suspicions (1325 GMT) that Press TV and Fars News misrepresented the statement of Mehdi Karroubi, which supposedly criticised other opposition politicians for supporting Hashemi Rafsanjani. The "genuine" statement of Karroubi is in Etemade Melli.

1638 GMT: Abdolhossein Roohul Amini, the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention, has published a statement after the cancellation of his son's funeral. He has thanked all people expressing their sympathies to his family and said the memorial was cancelled to prevent any violence against the public by "oppurtunistic factions".

1635 GMT: Confirming earlier news --- President Ahmadinejad's inauguration has been scheduled for 5 August.

1630 GMT: Darius Ghanbari, a "reformist" Member of Parliament, has said, "Decisions regarding the participation of reformist MPs in the swearing-in ceremonies of Ahmadinejad, in the votes of confidence in Ahmadinejad's cabinet, and on interaction with the overnment has been postponed to the general meeting of the reformist fraction that will convene this Tuesday."

1615 GMT: Ayatollah Hashim Hashim-Zadeh Hareesi, the representative of East Azerbaijan in the Assembly of Experts, has denied that the statement signed by 16 members, which denounced Hashemi Rafsanjani, represented the opinion of the 86 representatives in the Assembly. Hareesi told journalists, "Collecting signatures by telephone, while most members of the Assembly of Experts are scattered in various cities, cannot constitute a statement."

1445 GMT: Ayatollah Yousef Sanei has declared his readiness to attend the 30 July "40th Day" ceremony for those killed by security forces on 20 June.

1430 GMT: Another Iranian official has joined the chorus against television confessions. Mohammad-Javad Larijani, Secretary of the Human Rights Headquarters of Iran's judiciary, said, “I am against the broadcasting of confessions. I think it is the judiciary officials who should explain to the people the issues and violations of election laws by the Reformists.”

The Press TV article is notable, however, for other reasons. Larijani is a possible successor to the current head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, and his interview raises other issues about detention: "When asked why some of the detainees have not been allowed to contact their families yet, Larijani stressed that all the rights of the detainees should be respected." And it breaks the silence on suspicions over abuse of prisoners, prompted by the high profile of one death: "At least one of the detainees, named Mohsen Roholamini [son of an ally of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei], has died in prison."

Larijani is the most possible candidate to replace Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi.

1325 GMT: Meanwhile, on Press TV. The state network's website says nothing about the dramatic news of Ministers being fired. Instead, it runs an article trying to break Mehdi Karroubi away from the Green Movement.

The supposed quotes from Karroubi initially portray a leader accepting the election results and working for changes in his party: “Times have changed and there is an urgent need for far-reaching party reforms. We should review the post-election developments and plan our actions accordingly."

There is a hint of Karroubi's wider concerns in his statement, “After all, we are working in an environment that is biased and unfair. Our rivals are well-equipped and we are empty-handed, in the same way we were during the elections," but Press TV then emphasises the difference between Karroubi and other challengers to the Government: "It is most interesting how the very Reformist figures, who had criticized Hashemi-Rafsanjani and had stated that his political heyday is over, are now supporting him. This is not right.”

That attack both on Rafsanjani and other opposition leaders overshadows the final sentences of the article: "Karroubi asserted that he would continue his challenge to the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad government: 'I will not step down from my complaints to the election results for as long as I live.'"

1305 GMT: The Government Breaks Apart. Now Tabnak reports that Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has been dismissed. Like Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi, also fired by the President (see 1255 GMT), Ejeie challenged Ahmadinejad in a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday over the selection of the First Vice President.

There are unconfirmed reports that the Minister of Health and the Minister of Labour have also been removed from office.

1255 GMT: Is the Ahmadinejad Government Imploding? Mehr News reports that the President has fired his Minister of Culture, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi. Earlier this week Saffar-Harandi walked out of a Cabinet meeting amidst heated debate over the appointment of the First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1245 GMT: Despite its recent setbacks, the Government seems intent on provoking a fight. It is being reported that the funeral of Mohsen Roohul Amini, the son of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's campaign manager, has been cancelled because of pressure from the authorities. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had announced they would attend the funeral of Roohul Amini, who died in detention (see 0640 GMT).

0800 GMT: In our first update just over an hour ago, we asked our Big Question: after the successes of the last week, what will be the next steps for the opposition?

Our correspondent Mani has just given us the Big Answer. Mir Hossein Mousavi Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have sent the following request to the Minister of the Interior:

We take the oppurtunity to inform you that we intend to hold a memorial service to commemorate fellow citizens of our country who lost their lives due to to the recent horrific events. We request permission to hold this memorial service on mordad 8 1388 [30 July 2009], the 40th day after the starting of these events, at the grand prayer centre of Tehran. We would like to mention that this service will not include any speeches and will only involve listening to recitations from the Holy Koran. We will also request that the participants show their respects to the departed by maintaining silence.

Significantly, this Thursday, 30 July, is not the 40th day after the 12 June election or after the first mass demonstrations (and first deaths of protestors) on 15 June. Instead it is the 40th day after 20 June, when dozens of demonstrators, including Neda Agha Soltan, were killed by Iranian security forces.

(Agence France Press now has the story, which originally appeared in the Iranian Students News Agency.)

0750 GMT: After recent reports, including footage on BBC Persian, indicating that its members have been working with Iranian security forces, Lebanon's Hezbollah has denied any involvement: these are rumours "spreading sedition and division between the two brother nations of Lebanon and Iran".

0740 GMT: The "Power Overload" Protest. Remember the recent attempts to black out Iranian cities, at the start of the 9 p.m. national news, by turning on all applicances to overload the electrical grid?

The Revolutionary Guard certainly does. General Seyed Mohammad Hejazi has announced, "The plugging in of irons at 9 pm every night is an act of subversive sabotage."


0735 GMT: More Cabinet Difficulties. The Ministry of Industry, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, has been found guilty of fraudulently trying to register an invention of another researcher as his own. Last year, the Minister of Science was forced to resign when he falsely claimed to hold a Ph.D. from Oxford University.

0725 GMT: Larijani Breaks Ranks? The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, is resigning his position as Majority Whip. Officially, the reason is that he "understands that there is a conflict of interest" between the two roles. Given that the conflict is pretty obvious, it is more likely that Larijani is distancing himself from pro-Ahmadinejad MPs. Larijani has never sat comfortable alongside the President's supporters, and relations were further strained after the election when the Speaker called for investigations of security forces' raids on Tehran University and criticised the Guardian Council.

0715 GMT: Two weeks ago, we reported on the protest of Mohammad Reza Shajarian, the leading Iranian classical singer, against President Ahmadinejad's portrayal of his opposition as "dust". Shajarian has refused to allow Iranian state media to broadcast any of his music.

Etemade Melli has the latest on the dispute, with Shajarian promising to use all legal means to prevent any airplay.

0705 GMT: I Didn't Give In....Really. President Ahmadinejad may have been forced to dismiss the First Vice President, but he is still trying to save some face in the showdown. He has put Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in charge of his office staff.

0640 GMT: Another boost for the Green Movement yesterday with the impressive show of support in "United4Iran" gatherings across the world. As news came in of more than 2000 people in New York, the "green scroll" from the Eiffel Tower in Paris, and other demonstrations from Amsterdam to Dubai, there was a notable lifting of spirits amongst Iran activists.

Now, however, the opposition has to think through its next steps. Today "reformists" will decide whether to attend next week's inauguration of President Ahmadinejad. In an act of great political as well as humanitarian significance, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have announced they will attend the funeral of Mohsen Roohul Amini. Roohul Amini was the son of the campaign manager of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei; he died in prison after he was detained on 9 July.


Meanwhile, the regime is trying to repair internal relations. The Kayhan newspaper, having played a significant role in the pressure on President Ahmadinejad to get rid of his First Vice President, offered a limited apology to restore the image of Ahmadinejad acting in line with the Supreme Leader (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking to the participants in the 26th Koran competition, said:

The meaning of unity is that we must agree on fundamentals. Although we may disagree on less important issues this must not lead to disunity....Absolute ostracizing of others over these less important issues is not good [for the establishment] everyone must help in rebuilding the country....[The issues of the last few days] must not increase divisions, and one should not defame an individual and subsequently reject all of his capabilities based on a single issue....The Islamic republic allows people [that believe in the establishment] to have different viewpoints.

There was, however, a possible rebuke to Ahmadinejad in the Supreme Leader's warning, "These differences should not be mixed with sinful personal ambitions.

The Latest from Iran (24 July): Waiting for the Next Move

NEW Iran: How the "New Media" Tore Down the Gates of the "Mainstream"
Iran: A Clerical Front Against the Supreme Leader?
The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

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2055 GMT: Associated Press now has the Rahim-Mashai story. It quotes Presidential assistant Hashemi via the Islamic Republic News Agency: ""After the announcement of the exalted supreme leader's order, Mashai doesn't consider himself first vice president."

2030 GMT: Coincidence of the Day. When the news arrived at Enduring America, via a reader, that Vice President Rahim-Mashai had resigned, I was working on another entry. The title? "Iran: How the 'New Media' Tore Down the Gates of the 'Mainstream'".

The story arrived at EA at 1931 GMT. We verified and posted at 2000 GMT. As of now, no mainstream media outside Iran have noticed the story.

2010 GMT: From the Fars story on Rahim-Mashai resignation: The senior assistant to President Ahmadinejad, Seyed Mojtaba Hashemi Tamreh, answering a question from a Fars reporter over the Supreme Leader's letter demanding the withdrawal of Rahim-Mashai's appointment, said that the First Vice President had resigned.

2000 GMT: URGENT NEWS FLASH --- Fars News Agency is reporting that First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned.

1840 GMT: Now the "Conservative" Students Turn Against Ahmadinejad. The "Student Movement for Justice and Equality" has announced that, if First Vice President Rahim-Mashai is not removed by Sunday, they will have a protest sit-in in Pasteur Square. They will do so on behalf of the 24 million people who voted for the President and in defense of the rule of the Constitution and Velayet-e-Faqih (clerical authority).

1825 GMT: Another Air Tragedy. An Arbatour flight from Tehran crashed when trying to land at Mashaad in eastern Iran, apparently because of malfunctioning landing gear. The death toll is currently estimated at between 20 and 30 out of the 160 passengers and crew. The plane, like the one that crashed recently just outside Tehran killing 168 people, was Russian-made.

1800 GMT: Another "Conservative" Critic of the Government. The Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, has joined the chorus calling on the President to get rid of his First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The statement is blunt: Rahim-Mashai and his wife are both "hypocrites".

1700 GMT: Fars News has released the text of the Supreme Leader's demand that President Ahmadinejad revoke the appointment of his First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The two-sentence letter says that Rahim-Mashai has spoken "against the interests of the Government" and caused frustration and differences.

There are reports that IRIB state television has broadcast the text.

1500 GMT: Update on Son Killed, Father Detained. Yesterday we wrote about the case of 27-year-old Masoud Hashemzadeh, killed on 20 June by a single gunshot. Iranian authorities refused the family's request for a mourning ceremony, and security forces subsequently raided the house.

Reports have now come in that Hashemzadeh's father, detained in the raid, has been released on bail.

1430 GMT: Fighting Back. Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami used his leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran to strike at former President Rafsanjani and, possibly, the clerics challenging the legitimacy of the Government and the Supreme Leader's position.

Khatami declared, "We know of some insulting private meetings. We know about the plots against the leader but you (who hold these meetings) should know that you will not be able to stand against the people. Our people will defend the leader until the last drop of their blood."

Khatami's address should be considered in conjunction with yesterday's letter, issued by "conservative" members of the Assembly of Experts, seeking to reinforce Ayatollah Khamenei and undermine Rafsanjani. Conversely, I am now watching for the response of senior clerics, whether individually or as a bloc, who are criticising Ahmadinejad.

1000 GMT: A quick note about a new video resource. An Iranian activist has uploaded hundreds of clips on post-election events to a YouTube channel.

0715 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting that the son of Dr Abdolhossein Ruhol Amini, one of the top consultants to Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has died in Evin Prison. The family were informed via phone on Tuesday of the death of Mohsen Ruhol Amini, who was arrested during the 18 Tir protests on 9 July.

0650 GMT: More on "Foreign Forces". Just after I posted the entry below on BBC Persian's footage of a Hezbollah member amongst plainsclothes Iranian security forces, a reader pointed me to the video testimony of Ali Zare, a photographer for the Iranian newspaper Hamshahri who was detained amidst protests in Enqelab Square: "Somebody came to me and said, 'Please come with us.' He was Iranian but the other two persons who arrested me, they are from Lebanon."

Zare also says that, during questioning, he was threatened with a knife and with electricity. Still, he laughs about the comment of one interrogator: "Don't move. I want to cut your finger artistically because you are an artist and you need to have a nice finger."

0640 GMT: The First Wave of the Political Front? Following Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement that he will not stop protesting until all detainees are released, his advisor has reportedly said that the committee on the situation of those arrested will start work on Saturday. It is a shrewd political as well as humanitarian move: the detention issue is one that can be used without pause against the Government, uniting the various factions in the Green Movement.

0615 GMT: One of the most provocative rumours, amidst the demonstrations after the elections, was that the Iranian Government was using "foreign fighters", especially from Lebanon's Hezbollah, against the protests.

BBC Persian follows up the story, claiming that footage of a raid of Mousavi headquarters by Government plainclothes officers includes a prominent member of Lebanese Hezbollah. The broadcaster adds, however, that this is the only known case of participation by a Hezbollah member, so it is not known whether this is an isolated incident or part of a wider pattern.

0530 GMT: Most of the news this morning is catching up with a flurry of events yesterday, including the spate of clerical fatwas challenging the Government and the divisions within the Ahmadinejad camp.

Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page prints an English translation of the fatwa of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjan (pictured), issued in response to a follower's question: "Does the Supreme Leader’s confirmation return the legitimacy to the tenth administration and the president?" The answer is even blunter than we reported on Thursday:

If someone finds confidence that the mentioned individual has come to power by illegitimate means and by forgery, his confirmation by the Supreme Leader as the president and the completion of the inauguration ceremony will not legitimize him.

Ansar News offers a new version of the heated argument in the Presidential Cabinet over Ahmadinejad's insistence on the First Vice President, Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai. According to the report, when ministers asked the President to explain his decision, he left the room and put Rahim-Mashai in charge of the meeting. This in turn angered three ministers, who walked out in protest.

Opposition leaders were fairly quiet on Thursday. The most prominent statement came from Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who confirmed the detention of her brother soon after the 12 June election: “The government can fabricate as many lies as it wants to, but the people of Iran will never believe any of the allegations against my detained brother. My brother is only one amongst many other Iranian brothers and sisters who have been imprisoned – this is why I have not given his name to the media.”

Israel and the Middle East: France Jumps In

Over the last week, Paris has sent three signals of concern to Tel Aviv. First,President Nicolas Sarkozy said last Wednesday that an Israeli attack on Iran would be an “absolute catastrophe”.

Second, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner held talks on Friday with a Hezbollah legislator. Responding to Israeli criticisms, Kouchner said: "Hezbollah is part of the parties that participated in the recent parliamentary elections. It is natural to meet with its representatives."

And on Saturday, Ha'aretz reported, via Israel Radio,  that Kouchner had told his Lebanese interlocutors in Beirut that Washington had given Tel Aviv 6 months to halt expansion of settlements in the West Bank: "The U.S. could extend the six-month deadline, though Washington will not provide sponsorship to a renewed peace process if Jerusalem continues settlement construction."

If true, Kouchner has just set up a two-way message to Israel and Iran: while Tehran has its deadline --- negotiate by September or face tougher economic sanctions --- the Israelis are now on notice over the Palestinian process. The question is whether the French have developed this with the US.  If Tehran fails to satisfy the demands of the international community, Washington and Paris will lean more to the Israeli demand for stricter sanctions on the Islamic Republic. However, if Tehran moves to meet the demands, Washington will start ignoring the classic Israeli rhetoric on Iran's nuclear threat unless Tel Aviv halts its policy on settlements.

Video: "An Iranian Atomic Bomb Can Wipe Israel off the Map in a Matter of Seconds"

Iran: Did Joe Biden Just “Green Light” an Israeli Air Strike?

On Thursday, speaking to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic magazine, the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, claimed that an Iranian atomic bomb can “wipe Israel off the map in a matter of seconds.”



Oren did address the key immediate issue in US-Israeli relations: “The Israeli and American sides are working earnestly, ardently to try to find a compromise over the question of the degree to which construction can continue in settlements to accord what we call the normal life. And I am confident that we will find a solution for this.”

However, Oren just as quickly tried to shift attention to Iran, rather than Palestine, as the question that needed resolution: “I never said settlements are not an issue… but they're not the issue.” While the Netanyahu Government continues to hold out against any local concession, it will look for action against Tehran's "existential threat": "Everyone is waiting to see what will come out of this, but while we're waiting, while we're watching, the [nuclear] clock is ticking.”

To learn more about “the Iranian threat", one can read Oren’s own words from May 2009:

The principal sponsor of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is inextricably linked to the terrorist threat. But when the Islamic Republic achieves nuclear weapons-capability—as early as this year, according to Israeli intelligence estimates—the threat will amplify manifold.

A nuclear-armed Iran creates not one but several existential threats. The most manifest emanates from Iran’s routinely declared desire to “wipe Israel off the map,” and from the fact that cold war calculi of nuclear deterrence through mutually assured destruction may not apply to Islamist radicals eager for martyrdom. Some Israeli experts predict that the Iranian leadership would be willing to sacrifice 50 percent of their countrymen in order to eradicate Israel.

Beyond the perils of an Iranian first-strike attack against Israel, the possibility exists that Iran will transfer its nuclear capabilities to terrorist groups, which will then unleash them on Israel via the country’s porous ports and border crossings.

A nuclear Iran will also deny Israel the ability to respond to terrorist attacks: in response to an Israeli retaliation against Hezbollah, for example, Iran would go on nuclear alert, causing widespread panic in Israel and the collapse of its economy. Finally, and most menacing, many Middle Eastern states have declared their intention to develop nuclear capabilities of their own once Iran acquires the bomb.

Israel will swiftly find itself in a profoundly unstable nuclear neighborhood prone to violent revolutions and miscalculations leading to war. As former Labor Party minister Efraim Sneh says, under such circumstances, all Israelis who can leave the country will.