The Latest from Iran (24 July): Waiting for the Next Move

NEW Iran: How the "New Media" Tore Down the Gates of the "Mainstream"
Iran: A Clerical Front Against the Supreme Leader?
The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

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2055 GMT: Associated Press now has the Rahim-Mashai story. It quotes Presidential assistant Hashemi via the Islamic Republic News Agency: ""After the announcement of the exalted supreme leader's order, Mashai doesn't consider himself first vice president."

2030 GMT: Coincidence of the Day. When the news arrived at Enduring America, via a reader, that Vice President Rahim-Mashai had resigned, I was working on another entry. The title? "Iran: How the 'New Media' Tore Down the Gates of the 'Mainstream'".

The story arrived at EA at 1931 GMT. We verified and posted at 2000 GMT. As of now, no mainstream media outside Iran have noticed the story.

2010 GMT: From the Fars story on Rahim-Mashai resignation: The senior assistant to President Ahmadinejad, Seyed Mojtaba Hashemi Tamreh, answering a question from a Fars reporter over the Supreme Leader's letter demanding the withdrawal of Rahim-Mashai's appointment, said that the First Vice President had resigned.

2000 GMT: URGENT NEWS FLASH --- Fars News Agency is reporting that First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned.

1840 GMT: Now the "Conservative" Students Turn Against Ahmadinejad. The "Student Movement for Justice and Equality" has announced that, if First Vice President Rahim-Mashai is not removed by Sunday, they will have a protest sit-in in Pasteur Square. They will do so on behalf of the 24 million people who voted for the President and in defense of the rule of the Constitution and Velayet-e-Faqih (clerical authority).

1825 GMT: Another Air Tragedy. An Arbatour flight from Tehran crashed when trying to land at Mashaad in eastern Iran, apparently because of malfunctioning landing gear. The death toll is currently estimated at between 20 and 30 out of the 160 passengers and crew. The plane, like the one that crashed recently just outside Tehran killing 168 people, was Russian-made.

1800 GMT: Another "Conservative" Critic of the Government. The Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, has joined the chorus calling on the President to get rid of his First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The statement is blunt: Rahim-Mashai and his wife are both "hypocrites".

1700 GMT: Fars News has released the text of the Supreme Leader's demand that President Ahmadinejad revoke the appointment of his First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The two-sentence letter says that Rahim-Mashai has spoken "against the interests of the Government" and caused frustration and differences.

There are reports that IRIB state television has broadcast the text.

1500 GMT: Update on Son Killed, Father Detained. Yesterday we wrote about the case of 27-year-old Masoud Hashemzadeh, killed on 20 June by a single gunshot. Iranian authorities refused the family's request for a mourning ceremony, and security forces subsequently raided the house.

Reports have now come in that Hashemzadeh's father, detained in the raid, has been released on bail.

1430 GMT: Fighting Back. Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami used his leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran to strike at former President Rafsanjani and, possibly, the clerics challenging the legitimacy of the Government and the Supreme Leader's position.

Khatami declared, "We know of some insulting private meetings. We know about the plots against the leader but you (who hold these meetings) should know that you will not be able to stand against the people. Our people will defend the leader until the last drop of their blood."

Khatami's address should be considered in conjunction with yesterday's letter, issued by "conservative" members of the Assembly of Experts, seeking to reinforce Ayatollah Khamenei and undermine Rafsanjani. Conversely, I am now watching for the response of senior clerics, whether individually or as a bloc, who are criticising Ahmadinejad.

1000 GMT: A quick note about a new video resource. An Iranian activist has uploaded hundreds of clips on post-election events to a YouTube channel.

0715 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz is reporting that the son of Dr Abdolhossein Ruhol Amini, one of the top consultants to Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has died in Evin Prison. The family were informed via phone on Tuesday of the death of Mohsen Ruhol Amini, who was arrested during the 18 Tir protests on 9 July.

0650 GMT: More on "Foreign Forces". Just after I posted the entry below on BBC Persian's footage of a Hezbollah member amongst plainsclothes Iranian security forces, a reader pointed me to the video testimony of Ali Zare, a photographer for the Iranian newspaper Hamshahri who was detained amidst protests in Enqelab Square: "Somebody came to me and said, 'Please come with us.' He was Iranian but the other two persons who arrested me, they are from Lebanon."

Zare also says that, during questioning, he was threatened with a knife and with electricity. Still, he laughs about the comment of one interrogator: "Don't move. I want to cut your finger artistically because you are an artist and you need to have a nice finger."

0640 GMT: The First Wave of the Political Front? Following Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement that he will not stop protesting until all detainees are released, his advisor has reportedly said that the committee on the situation of those arrested will start work on Saturday. It is a shrewd political as well as humanitarian move: the detention issue is one that can be used without pause against the Government, uniting the various factions in the Green Movement.

0615 GMT: One of the most provocative rumours, amidst the demonstrations after the elections, was that the Iranian Government was using "foreign fighters", especially from Lebanon's Hezbollah, against the protests.

BBC Persian follows up the story, claiming that footage of a raid of Mousavi headquarters by Government plainclothes officers includes a prominent member of Lebanese Hezbollah. The broadcaster adds, however, that this is the only known case of participation by a Hezbollah member, so it is not known whether this is an isolated incident or part of a wider pattern.

0530 GMT: Most of the news this morning is catching up with a flurry of events yesterday, including the spate of clerical fatwas challenging the Government and the divisions within the Ahmadinejad camp.

Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page prints an English translation of the fatwa of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjan (pictured), issued in response to a follower's question: "Does the Supreme Leader’s confirmation return the legitimacy to the tenth administration and the president?" The answer is even blunter than we reported on Thursday:

If someone finds confidence that the mentioned individual has come to power by illegitimate means and by forgery, his confirmation by the Supreme Leader as the president and the completion of the inauguration ceremony will not legitimize him.

Ansar News offers a new version of the heated argument in the Presidential Cabinet over Ahmadinejad's insistence on the First Vice President, Esfandiari Rahim-Mashai. According to the report, when ministers asked the President to explain his decision, he left the room and put Rahim-Mashai in charge of the meeting. This in turn angered three ministers, who walked out in protest.

Opposition leaders were fairly quiet on Thursday. The most prominent statement came from Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who confirmed the detention of her brother soon after the 12 June election: “The government can fabricate as many lies as it wants to, but the people of Iran will never believe any of the allegations against my detained brother. My brother is only one amongst many other Iranian brothers and sisters who have been imprisoned – this is why I have not given his name to the media.”

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

NEW Iran Video: Mr Ahmadinejad and His Wonderful, Brightly-Coloured Charts
NEW Iran: Protest Through "The Rooftop Project"
NEW Iran: How Strong is the G8 Statement on the Nuclear Programme?
NEW Getting Iran (Loudly) Wrong: Posturing for Mr Ahmadinejad and Mr Hitchens
NEW Iran: How Big Were the 18 Tir Protests?
The Latest from Iran (18 Tir/9 July): Day of Reckoning?
LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)

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2155 GMT: Fancy a laugh? Spend a few minutes with President Ahmadinejad as he, and his brightly-coloured charts, propose the reform of the Iranian military back to 331 B.C.

Or, if you prefer a more serious but high-quality end to the evening, check out Al Jazeera's documentary inside the Iranian protests, filled with new footage on the early days of the post-election conflict.

1835 GMT: The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that academic Kian Tajbakhsh was arrested on Thursday night. Tajbakhsh is a specialist in local government reform, urban planning, public health, and social policy who has taught at both American and Iranian universities.

1830 GMT: A new website, "The Rooftop Project", is trying to compile a present a full record of the nightly "Allahu Akhbar" (God is Great) protests from just before the election to the present. We've posted a note and sample footage in a separate entry.

1810 GMT: A lull in developments inside Iran, so EA's Ali Yenidunya has looked at developments elsewhere, "It’s not the statement of the G8 Summit [on the Iranian nuclear programme] that poses the questions over future relations with Iran. Those are in the post-summit positions now being considered in Washington and Paris, not to mention Moscow and Beijing.

1510 GMT: And Your Latest New Media Advance. A reader alerts us to the launch of "IranianYouTube.com".

1500 GMT: Foreign Intrigue Story of the Day. Fars News Agency says a BBC recording studio was discovered in one of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign offices.

1420 GMT: Here's Your Concession? Press TV summarises Ayatollah Kashani's address at Friday prayers. It does not begin with "foreign enemies", the news is Kashani's assertion that "a parliamentary revision of the presidential election law is needed to prevent post-vote unrest in the future".

Press TV implies, however, that Kashani was not giving way to "Green" critics of the Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami hue; instead, it refers to "Tehran's mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf,...the first to propose the revision of the electoral code of conduct in Iran".

1220 GMT: Friday prayers at the University of Tehran were led, as had been rumoured earlier this week, by Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani. We're still trying to get information on the content of the address.

1145 GMT: We've been mired in the reading of some very dubious analysis of Iran. To "celebrate" the occasion, I've posted a separate blog, "Getting Iran (Loudly) Wrong".

1100 GMT: Collateral Damage. Reports that the British Embassy in Tehran has not issued any visas since 28 June. Those affected include entrants into British universities this autumn.

1045 GMT: A reader offers another valuable link, Sabz Films, for videos to add to our own collection.

1000 GMT: The Ups and Downs of Iran-Watching. The excellent Juan Cole both misses and hits this morning.

The "miss" is his too-easy recitation of the Associated Press overview of the 18 Tir protests, which repeat (and may have launched) the unsupported figure of 2000-3000 protesters. (To be fair, Cole does note, "What AP does not say on is that numerous small demonstrations are reported to have taken place all over the country, including in the southwestern city of Shiraz and elsewhere.")

His big hits are a good collection of videos and this story, which I have not seen elsewhere, from the US Government's Open Source Center:

Alef and Peiknet noted on 8 July that there is no information on the whereabouts of . . .[Shahaboddin] Metaji, head of Tehran Refinery. He was arrested several days ago and taken to an unknown location.

Metaji's colleagues, according to the report, said he was arrested because his family was chanting "Allah-O-Akbar" (God is Great) on the roof of their homes as a sign of protest to last month's presidential election results. His employees reportedly said: "The officials are trying to create fear among us, but that will not help. Our chanting has not stopped and will not stop.

In one of his visits, (Iranian President Mahmud) Ahmadinezhad told one of the oil officials to use big tankers instead of barrels when exporting petroleum. The employees couldn't believe how uninformed he is. The employees of the oil industry are angry because hundreds of small and big energy projects are now suspended, and now the employees are counting the seconds to exit this crisis. The structure of the oil industry is very much against Ahmadinezhad.

0800 GMT: The information from "citizen journalists" has been compiled in a new "underground" newspaper, which is well above ground on the Internet.

0720 GMT: After a near-shutdown of video out of Iran in the last two weeks, we were overwhelmed yesterday by the claimed footage of the 18 Tir protests. We've put up a selection of the best footage, but for even more coverage, we recommend the YouTube channel of "peive17" and Fintan Dunne.

0645 GMT: #BBCFail? The BBC, the target of the Iranian Government for its foreign evil after the election, faces a new set of critics this morning. Opposition activists are questioning why BBC Persian gave so little coverage to the demonstrations yesterday.

Can't confirm that lack of content; however, the BBC's main website hasn't bothered to update its Iran story since 1700 GMT yesterday and, like CNN, offers the bland headline, "Iran police tear gas protesters".

0530 GMT: It may seem callous to say this, after the success of the 18 Tir protests on Thursday (see our final updates), but the opposition challenge already faces the challenge of "And Now?".

Unless all the reports and videos are lies, the turnout in Tehran was far bigger than the "hundreds" declared initially by news agencies like Reuters. It was a question of where you looked: if eyes stared at the centre of Enqelab (Revolution) Square (or if they worked for Iran's Press TV), they saw an effective lockdown by security forces, with only a scattering of demonstrators being prevented from assembling. If the gaze widened, however, there were protests in squares, avenues, and roads across the city.

The size of gatherings outside Tehran is unknown, however (at present, I have seen only one claimed video, a small protest in Rasht that we posted, and reports are sketchy and unconfirmed), and defenders of the regime will argue that those who showed up in the capital are not representative of Iran's majority.News outlets like CNN have missed the political significance of the challenge, focusing inside on "Iranian forces disperse protesters with batons, tear gas". So, fairly or unfairly, the challenge will now fall on the politicians and clerics: what moves do they make to sustain the momentum of yesterday?

The mirror-image question can be put to the Iranian Government. It will be hard to deny that, in Tehran at least, there is still an opposition movement of some significance. So matters have not been closed off by the Guardian Council's "recount" of the Presidential vote, the threats of tough action from ayatollahs close to the Supreme Leader and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, and certainly not the latest speech of President Ahmadinejad.

A possible response may come at Friday prayers at Tehran University. We're still waiting for confirmation of the leader, but let's just say that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (rumoured to have withdrawn his name) will not fill the required role of a firm speech that all has been resolved.

The Latest from Iran (18 Tir/9 July): Day of Reckoning?

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)
The Latest from Iran (8 July): The Day Before….?
Iran: A Counter-coup against the Supreme Leader’s Son Mojtaba?
Iran: Human Rights Watch Statement on Abuse of Detainees

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1945 GMT: Thanks to Fintan Dunne: my interview with him (summarised at 1910 GMT) is now on-line.

1935 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports on an attack by security forces on the dormitories at Amir Kabir University.

1910 GMT: Earlier this evening, I chatted with Fintan Dunne about the day's events and their political significance. He'll be posting the audio on his blog later, but a couple of points that stood out for me:

1. If a "victory" had to be declared, it went to the opposition challenge. Despite all the Government detentions, threats, and disruptions of communications, thousands (and, while exact numbers cannot be determined, it appears from reports and video footages to be thousands rather than hundreds) gathered at locations across Tehran. The weeks of pressure had not broken the protests.

There were "bonuses" for the opposition as well in a reduction in violence by security forces (for whatever reason), which bolstered confidence amongst demonstrators as the day developed, the lack of any indication that the protesters were sponsored by "foreign enemies", and the first significant video footage in weeks to come out of Tehran. And, while one has to be cautious in generalising from the audio on that footage, there were bold chants of "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein" and criticism of the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

2. That, however, is only part of the story. There are two halves to the challenge: the public protest and the manoeuvres of the political leadership. So far Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have not followed up the marches with statements and indications of next steps.

3. And what of the political manoeuvres within the regime? Already attention moves from today to tomorrow. The issue at Friday prayers at the University of Tehran is not only who will be leading them but who will not. Has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined and does that mark, in addition to this week's criticism of the government as "illegitimate" by a political party linked to him, his challenge to President Ahmadinejad and pressure for changes in the Iranian system?

1900 GMT: This, word for word, is Press TV English's current summary of today's demonstrations in their "News in Brief", under the headline "No Major Protests in Tehran": "

A few hundred demonstrators have gathered on the sidewalks in the streets leading to Tehran University. Police used tear gas in one locality to disperse the crowd. Security has been tight in the streets of downtown Tehran Thursday but onlookers did gather to watch the demonstrations.

The website summary puts out a similar line.
1840 GMT: Reports that "Allahu Akhbars" (God is Great) are ringing out from Tehran rooftops.

1730 GMT: CNN's website offers a summary of the account of Iason Athanasiadis, the Anglo-Greek journalist detained for three weeks in Iran.

1710 GMT: The pattern of demonstrations reported earlier (1345 GMT) appears to have continued throughout day. Rather than one large demonstration, there were a series of gatherings --- either by design or in reaction to the security forces' preventing a mass grouping --- throughout Tehran. The reports of clashes, including alleged use of tear gas and gunfire to disperse crowds, are still sketchy. It is also unclear how much activity there was outside Tehran.

1700 GMT: Just going through latest reports and posting latest claimed video of today's demonstrations. Meanwhile, Tehran Bureau, Fintan Dunne, and Nico Pitney at Huffington Post offer useful updates.

1500 GMT: Cellphone reception now blocked in central Tehran.

1445 GMT: Reports of demonstrations at Vanak Square, Vali-e Asr Square, Ferdosi, Tehran University, and Polytechnic University.

1430 GMT: Amidst the news of the demonstrations, it should be noted that Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a human rights lawyers and founder of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi's human rights group, has been arrested.

1345 GMT: There are general reports from various sources of security forces "beating" protesters. Unconfirmed reports of use of tear gas and gunshots at Enqelab and/or Vanak Square. Clashes at Karegar Shomali Street nearr Enqelab Square.

It is not possible at this point to measure both the size of the demonstrations and the scale of the violence. Some "mainstream" media are rushing out the story that "only 250" people have gathered. That appears to be a limited, if not wholly inaccurate, view. What appears to be happening, instead, is that groups of people are meeting at different locations (latest report is several hundred in front of the Polytechnic in Tehran).

1315 GMT: Latest Situation. Reports of Army units replacing police at key points such as Enqelab Square. The square is not completely closed, but police are trying to identify "key" protesters. Also people gathering at Vanak Square. A Revolutionary Guard unit has been placed in front of the Interior Ministry.

Unconfirmed reports of protests in Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahwaz, Babol, Kerman, Mashaad, and Sari.

1145 GMT: It is now after 4 p.m. local time in Iran. Reports:

There is a "heavy presence of security forces at Enqelab Square", with military helicopters flying over Enqelab Square, Azadi Square, and Laleh Park. Main entrances to Tehran University have been blocked. Phone service has been disrupted.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Government says US military officials have transferred to Iraqi custody five Iranians held since March 2007 in an American raid in Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

0815 GMT: A Kind and Gentle Reminder to Those Who Might Protest. Morteza Tamedon, the Governor of Tehran (not to be confused with the Mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf), has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "No permission for a gathering or march has been requested or issued. But if some people make moves that are contrary to security initiatives under the influence of anti-revolutionary networks, they will be trampled under the feet of our alert people."

0615 GMT: Battle of the Broadcasters. No significiant news yet from Tehran. Meanwhile, Press TV English sets out its strategy: don't mention any demonstrations but do mention Western interference, using the misleading and outdated claim that the US Government has authorised "hundreds of millions of dollars" for regime change (the reality under the Obama Administration is far less dramatic) and highlighting the claim that the US is supporting the insurgent group Jundallah (probably true in the past, but of little relevance to the post-election events).

CNN counters by raising the question of a split amongst the clerics and giving a brief historical perspective through the 18 Tir demonstrations of 1999.

Another big clue to the US-centred view of Iran comes in the online newspaper, The Daily Beast, which highlights an interview by Reza Aslan (one of the most prominent US-based commentators on Iranian affairs) of Ahmad Batebi, the student activist whose picture became an icon of the 1999 demonstrations.

0530 GMT: Today is the day that may continue or close "Phase 1" of the post-election conflict in Iran. For more than a week, opposition efforts have pointed towards mass marches on 18 Tir, the date in the Iranian calendar, which is the 10th anniversary of student-led demonstrations that called for reform and were suppressed violently. Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises, "Cities confirmed to protest include: Ahvaz, Arak, Adrabil, Bandar Abbas, Birjand, Bojnurd, Bushehr, Esfehan, Ghazvin, Ghom, Gorgan, Hamedan, Ilam, Kerman, Kermanshah, Khorramabad, Mashhad, Rasht, Sanandaj, Sari, Semnan, Shahrekord, Shiraz, Tabriz, Urmieh, Yasuj, Yazd, Zahedan and Zanjan."

If the marches take place, despite all the Government efforts to block them through detentions, limits on communications, and open threats, then the public protest over the 12 June Presidential election continues. If they fizzle out into scattered gatherings with no cohesive centre, then the regime will have succeeded in its immediate effort to curb the challenge not only to President Ahmadinejad but to the  Iranian system of politics and governance.

Yet, even if the demonstrations are limited, the "Phase 1" analysis remains. Those opposed to the election of President Ahmadinejad and to a system that has suppressed dissent have promised that they will maintain their resistance through general, often symbolic, action. Equally important, inside the system, there have been politicians and clerics who have been unsettled by the developments. Added to those who were already challenging the Presidency and even (though often in a limited way) the Supreme Leader, that disquiet points to continued manoeuvres for power.

Those manoeuvres are now cloaked in uncertainty and rumour. Later today, we'll update our entry on the resistance allegedly provoked by the role of the Supreme Leader's son Mojtaba in events on and after 12 June (put bluntly, we think The Guardian of London story, based on a single source, that summarised a serious challenge is exaggerated and came via "Western" channels rather than directly from Tehran). We'll also be looking carefully at the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is refusing to lead Friday prayers. And we're reading through a lengthy, challenging analysis that claims the idea of a clerical opposition to the post-election conduct of the regime has been exaggerated --- we'll post the analysis and our thoughts later this morning.

UPDATED Iran: A Counter-coup against the Supreme Leader's Son Mojtaba?

The Latest from Iran (8 July): The Day Before….?

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UPDATE (9 JULY, 1200 GMT): After double-checking and reflecting on details, my opinion is that The Guardian story is an exaggeration of the tensions within the Iranian system. It is wrong in both factual details, such as Ali Larijani's position and that of Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari, but also in the general portrayal of a sweeping move against the Supreme Leader through the anger over Mojtaba Khameini.

But there is an important curiosity about the way this story appeared. Julian Borger is an excellent reporter and now Diplomatic Editor for The Guardian, but to my knowledge he has little experience in the Middle East and Iran. Robert Tait has been the long-time Tehran correspondent for the newspaper, and Ian Black, who has been the Middle Eastern correspondent, has filed recent stories. In contrast, Borger has generally been based in the US and Europe.

So how does a high-ranking Iranian politician come to Borger with the story? I suspect that there is a Western "broker" here, in other words, a Government or private institution (probably American or British) who knew of this Iranian politician's views and put him in contact with Borger or vice-versa.

That does not mean that The Guardian, Julian Borger, and the Iranian politician are just "puppets" of Western intrigue. Instead, it's a case of how very real internal tensions in Iran make their way out as "news".

So who is the source? The answer to that would tell you how serious this tale of a "counter-coup" could be.

On Wednesday afternoon, the website of The Guardian of London posts a story, based on “a politician with strong connections to the security apparatus”, publicising what has been discussed amongst Iranian activists for weeks: the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei (pictured), is now in charge of Iran’s paramilitary Basiji.

That, however, is only the beginning of the story. The Iranian source adds that victory over the protest — both on the streets and behind the scenes — has not been achieved, “This game has not finished. The game has only just started.”

Indeed, according to the politician, we may now be witnessing the counter-move against an election night seizure of power led by the Supreme Leader's son:

Mojtaba is the commander of this coup d'etat. The basiji are operating on Mojtaba's orders, but his name is always hidden in all of this. The government never mentions him. Everyone is angry about this. The maraji [Iran's most senior ayatollahs] and the clerics are angry, the conservatives are very angry and strongly critical of Mojtaba. This situation cannot continue with so many people on the top against it.

The source portrays a situation where, in part because of the anger against Mojtaba, the Supreme Leader can rely on only a minority of senior clerics, politicians like Ali Larijani, Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei have been alienated, and key commanders of the Revolutionary Guard such as General Ali Jafari have been angered.

It must be emphasised that this is a single-source story. There are elements which are shaky: for example, General Jafari has swung behind the regime's crackdown on dissent. The extent of political opposition within the regime also seems exaggerated. Larijani, for one, appears to be sitting on the fence.

Still, there is much here which corresponds with our own sources on divisions in the clerical and political leadership. Definitely a story, if not the story, to watch in forthcoming days.