The Latest from Iran (18 Tir/9 July): Day of Reckoning?

The Latest from Iran (10 July): What Next?

LATEST Video: The 18 Tir Protests (9 July)
The Latest from Iran (8 July): The Day Before….?
Iran: A Counter-coup against the Supreme Leader’s Son Mojtaba?
Iran: Human Rights Watch Statement on Abuse of Detainees

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1945 GMT: Thanks to Fintan Dunne: my interview with him (summarised at 1910 GMT) is now on-line.

1935 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports on an attack by security forces on the dormitories at Amir Kabir University.

1910 GMT: Earlier this evening, I chatted with Fintan Dunne about the day's events and their political significance. He'll be posting the audio on his blog later, but a couple of points that stood out for me:

1. If a "victory" had to be declared, it went to the opposition challenge. Despite all the Government detentions, threats, and disruptions of communications, thousands (and, while exact numbers cannot be determined, it appears from reports and video footages to be thousands rather than hundreds) gathered at locations across Tehran. The weeks of pressure had not broken the protests.

There were "bonuses" for the opposition as well in a reduction in violence by security forces (for whatever reason), which bolstered confidence amongst demonstrators as the day developed, the lack of any indication that the protesters were sponsored by "foreign enemies", and the first significant video footage in weeks to come out of Tehran. And, while one has to be cautious in generalising from the audio on that footage, there were bold chants of "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein" and criticism of the Supreme Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

2. That, however, is only part of the story. There are two halves to the challenge: the public protest and the manoeuvres of the political leadership. So far Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have not followed up the marches with statements and indications of next steps.

3. And what of the political manoeuvres within the regime? Already attention moves from today to tomorrow. The issue at Friday prayers at the University of Tehran is not only who will be leading them but who will not. Has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined and does that mark, in addition to this week's criticism of the government as "illegitimate" by a political party linked to him, his challenge to President Ahmadinejad and pressure for changes in the Iranian system?

1900 GMT: This, word for word, is Press TV English's current summary of today's demonstrations in their "News in Brief", under the headline "No Major Protests in Tehran": "

A few hundred demonstrators have gathered on the sidewalks in the streets leading to Tehran University. Police used tear gas in one locality to disperse the crowd. Security has been tight in the streets of downtown Tehran Thursday but onlookers did gather to watch the demonstrations.

The website summary puts out a similar line.
1840 GMT: Reports that "Allahu Akhbars" (God is Great) are ringing out from Tehran rooftops.

1730 GMT: CNN's website offers a summary of the account of Iason Athanasiadis, the Anglo-Greek journalist detained for three weeks in Iran.

1710 GMT: The pattern of demonstrations reported earlier (1345 GMT) appears to have continued throughout day. Rather than one large demonstration, there were a series of gatherings --- either by design or in reaction to the security forces' preventing a mass grouping --- throughout Tehran. The reports of clashes, including alleged use of tear gas and gunfire to disperse crowds, are still sketchy. It is also unclear how much activity there was outside Tehran.

1700 GMT: Just going through latest reports and posting latest claimed video of today's demonstrations. Meanwhile, Tehran Bureau, Fintan Dunne, and Nico Pitney at Huffington Post offer useful updates.

1500 GMT: Cellphone reception now blocked in central Tehran.

1445 GMT: Reports of demonstrations at Vanak Square, Vali-e Asr Square, Ferdosi, Tehran University, and Polytechnic University.

1430 GMT: Amidst the news of the demonstrations, it should be noted that Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a human rights lawyers and founder of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi's human rights group, has been arrested.

1345 GMT: There are general reports from various sources of security forces "beating" protesters. Unconfirmed reports of use of tear gas and gunshots at Enqelab and/or Vanak Square. Clashes at Karegar Shomali Street nearr Enqelab Square.

It is not possible at this point to measure both the size of the demonstrations and the scale of the violence. Some "mainstream" media are rushing out the story that "only 250" people have gathered. That appears to be a limited, if not wholly inaccurate, view. What appears to be happening, instead, is that groups of people are meeting at different locations (latest report is several hundred in front of the Polytechnic in Tehran).

1315 GMT: Latest Situation. Reports of Army units replacing police at key points such as Enqelab Square. The square is not completely closed, but police are trying to identify "key" protesters. Also people gathering at Vanak Square. A Revolutionary Guard unit has been placed in front of the Interior Ministry.

Unconfirmed reports of protests in Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahwaz, Babol, Kerman, Mashaad, and Sari.

1145 GMT: It is now after 4 p.m. local time in Iran. Reports:

There is a "heavy presence of security forces at Enqelab Square", with military helicopters flying over Enqelab Square, Azadi Square, and Laleh Park. Main entrances to Tehran University have been blocked. Phone service has been disrupted.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Government says US military officials have transferred to Iraqi custody five Iranians held since March 2007 in an American raid in Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

0815 GMT: A Kind and Gentle Reminder to Those Who Might Protest. Morteza Tamedon, the Governor of Tehran (not to be confused with the Mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf), has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "No permission for a gathering or march has been requested or issued. But if some people make moves that are contrary to security initiatives under the influence of anti-revolutionary networks, they will be trampled under the feet of our alert people."

0615 GMT: Battle of the Broadcasters. No significiant news yet from Tehran. Meanwhile, Press TV English sets out its strategy: don't mention any demonstrations but do mention Western interference, using the misleading and outdated claim that the US Government has authorised "hundreds of millions of dollars" for regime change (the reality under the Obama Administration is far less dramatic) and highlighting the claim that the US is supporting the insurgent group Jundallah (probably true in the past, but of little relevance to the post-election events).

CNN counters by raising the question of a split amongst the clerics and giving a brief historical perspective through the 18 Tir demonstrations of 1999.

Another big clue to the US-centred view of Iran comes in the online newspaper, The Daily Beast, which highlights an interview by Reza Aslan (one of the most prominent US-based commentators on Iranian affairs) of Ahmad Batebi, the student activist whose picture became an icon of the 1999 demonstrations.

0530 GMT: Today is the day that may continue or close "Phase 1" of the post-election conflict in Iran. For more than a week, opposition efforts have pointed towards mass marches on 18 Tir, the date in the Iranian calendar, which is the 10th anniversary of student-led demonstrations that called for reform and were suppressed violently. Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises, "Cities confirmed to protest include: Ahvaz, Arak, Adrabil, Bandar Abbas, Birjand, Bojnurd, Bushehr, Esfehan, Ghazvin, Ghom, Gorgan, Hamedan, Ilam, Kerman, Kermanshah, Khorramabad, Mashhad, Rasht, Sanandaj, Sari, Semnan, Shahrekord, Shiraz, Tabriz, Urmieh, Yasuj, Yazd, Zahedan and Zanjan."

If the marches take place, despite all the Government efforts to block them through detentions, limits on communications, and open threats, then the public protest over the 12 June Presidential election continues. If they fizzle out into scattered gatherings with no cohesive centre, then the regime will have succeeded in its immediate effort to curb the challenge not only to President Ahmadinejad but to the  Iranian system of politics and governance.

Yet, even if the demonstrations are limited, the "Phase 1" analysis remains. Those opposed to the election of President Ahmadinejad and to a system that has suppressed dissent have promised that they will maintain their resistance through general, often symbolic, action. Equally important, inside the system, there have been politicians and clerics who have been unsettled by the developments. Added to those who were already challenging the Presidency and even (though often in a limited way) the Supreme Leader, that disquiet points to continued manoeuvres for power.

Those manoeuvres are now cloaked in uncertainty and rumour. Later today, we'll update our entry on the resistance allegedly provoked by the role of the Supreme Leader's son Mojtaba in events on and after 12 June (put bluntly, we think The Guardian of London story, based on a single source, that summarised a serious challenge is exaggerated and came via "Western" channels rather than directly from Tehran). We'll also be looking carefully at the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is refusing to lead Friday prayers. And we're reading through a lengthy, challenging analysis that claims the idea of a clerical opposition to the post-election conduct of the regime has been exaggerated --- we'll post the analysis and our thoughts later this morning.

Comments

[JP]

Great coverage.

Any sense about the economic impact of the post-election period?

I would guess that the impact must be fairly significant. Even without a full-blown national strike the economic wheels must be running at less than full-throttle -- especially with the government sanctioned interruptions in communication networks -- both phone and internet. Also, the state must be burning cash at a steady pace in order to maintain its high-level security presence (going on now for almost a month now in several cities).

[Scott Lucas]

JP,

Great question and one we'll have to consider if/when the political crisis eases.

My immediate sense is that the economy could go through some constriction in the short-term. While I don't think Ahmadinejad's management has been effective, to say the least, the base of oil revenues and some increase in productivity in industrial sectors offsets the sanctions.

Beyond that, however, I think your instinct is right. An important clue came in the story yesterday that Iranian Government is looking to reduce subsidies on household energy costs.

S.

[sophie]

this is no joke, every1 i know in tehran has got about 10+ emails about this, right now is 4:00 pm july 9th and im sitting in my house in tehran my bros wife has gone out to demonstrate with her family i was just at her house and i cant go cuz im just 15, last night i was yelling "allah o akbar" along with 30 other voices coming from all over, my bros wife was even worried to go out today cuz today is probably going to be the biggest demonstration since the election, my internet can cut off any second now, i hope she'll be fine im worried, tonight ill probably hear the loudest "allah o akbar"s, the demonstrations are going to start in about half an hour or so, i wish i could go out there with them i feel like im nothing now, if u need any info about these stuff going on, my email is sophie.mousavi@yahoo.com

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

Repost of Sophie:

"i feel like im nothing now"

Sophie, you are EVERYTHING. Your voice, and hundreds like it, make it possible for the world to witness what is going on in your country. Every time a people, a group, a nation fights for its freedom and rights, we should all hear about it. Your voice puts light on the brave actions of the others in your country: without that light, crushing 'official' hands can reach out of the shadows, abusing the power they were given by the people whom they now grab. Keep shining the light for Iran, for us, for the world.
You are not "nothing": you are EVERYTHING.
With the Utmost Admiration for You and Your Countrymen,
Dr. Charles E. Gannon
Distinguished Professor of English, St. Bonaventure University
Fulbright Senior Specialist (2004-9)

[Jon Holz]

I'm a little confused about your statement regarding US funding. If I recall correctly just over a year ago the press reported that the Bush admin channeled $400m for covert ops in Iran. That kind of money takes about a year to work its wonders. Are you suggesting that the Obama admin has pulled that funding or just not renewed it?

Recent history shows a continuous line of US involvement in Iran--from the '53 coup, through the Shah's years, into Reagan's Iran/Contra affairs and our involvement in the real Gulf War (between Iran and Iraq).

Do you have references to support your statement that our current involvement is "far less dramatic?" With the Obama admin driving the same policy regarding Gitmo prisoners, high finance, Iraq, global warming, etc. as the Bush admin, I find it hard to believe he would step on the brakes of the neocon Iranian policy. It certainly deserves more than a parenthetical comment.

[ChrisE]

According to Richard Sale (Middle East Times Intelligence Correspondent).

“President Obama cancelled any covert action operations against Iran soon
after he came to office, but Farsi anti-regime propaganda programs are
still ongoing.”

You can read Timmerman’s disgust at the end of funding for opposition groups here: http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/Obama_Democracy_Iran/2009/06/19/227155.html

I also believe that the Bush admin struggled to spend all that money and most of it went to opposition groups in the US and on foreign broadcasting. A significant amount went unspent.

[Farhad Abdolian]

Could you please clarify these items here "using the misleading and outdated claim that the US Government has authorised “hundreds of millions of dollars” for regime change (the reality under the Obama Administration is far less dramatic) and highlighting the claim that the US is supporting the insurgent group Jundallah (probably true in the past, but of little relevance to the post-election events)."

As far as I know, Obama administration has not frozen the $400M assigned for regime change in Iran by the Bush administration in the past and there has been no major changes in US policy toward Iran since Obama's election.

Money send to 'oposition' groups just don't evaporate in the air like in the Mission Impossible movies, they have long term affect and as long as Obama actively end the US support of terrorist groups like Jundollha (the Al-Qaida insipred sunni-insurgents in Baluchestan) your claims are nothing but pure white washing of the US history.

Press TV is a joke, everyone knows it, but if you write articles like this one, you are not much better than them.

[Farhad Abdolian]

ChrisE,
Since when has Kenneth Timmerman any accountability in what he writes, he is a BS:eter and 90% of what he writes have nothing to do with reality. Funny to see him being used as a source of 'information'!

[canuckistan]

there's more on where the $400 million has supposedly gone here:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

Re: Mr. Abdollian's first post.

I note, with appreciation, the many times that exogenous commentators on Iran (such as those from Enduring America) are (rightly) upbraided for not having an adequate understanding of the reality (or more precisely, the ecology of *real politik*) that defines and contextualizes the political processes within that country.

With respect, I would suggest that an equal and reciprocal appreciation of the domain of American "real politik" is also desirable. I commend you to study, with a close eye to detail, how line items are funded in the US budget. You are absolutely right that monies do not "disappear". The flip side of that reality is that neither can funding allowances be rescinded without tumbling a number of very problematic dominoes of further political consequences. Obama spends his political and popular capital very wisely; of course he's not going to change funding (or any positions) until he has determined exactly what he's going to do, and that is, in large measure, going to be determined by just how much political capital he has to spend to secure support for that course of action (either from Congress, the body politic, or both). And note the following from the July 2008 New Yorker article, cited by one of the other commentators:

"A member of the House Appropriations Committee acknowledged that, even with a Democratic victory in November [2008], “it will take another year before we get the intelligence activities under control.” He went on, “We control the money and they can’t do anything without the money. Money is what it’s all about. But I’m very leery of this Administration.” He added, “This Administration has been so secretive.” {note: given date, this refers to the Bush Administration}

So is the money still earmarked? Yes: that water is still in the tank, ready to flow. Does that mean the spigot is on? Who knows? I live alongside, and routinely interact with, Beltway insiders: there is very little talk about that, which in this administration usually means the situation is being observed, pending a decision. Note that if the money is RELEASED from its earmark, then it goes back into the public tills. It is no longer available for anything that falls under the "special operations" heading--which can magically transmogrify into humanitarian aid, infrastructure reconstruction, etc.

Real Politick axiom one: never give away earmarked money. With it, the Executive Branch has immense flexibility re: it potential use, and in the current volatile situation in Iran, that "use" could take on many forms. It would be very "clarifying" if Obama were to plough that money back into the budget--clarifying, but not *wise*. In a cash strapped America, Obama has an Iran-committed line of credit: if he gives it up, he will not get it replaced, not in the current economic climate.

Does this mean he's holding the money to fund further covert ops in Iran, more perfidious and pernicious than the neocons? It cannot be ruled out. Is he envisioning the money as a means to fund prosocial action that is non-military in nature? Equally possible--and probably more plausible. Does he have full control of the situation? That's a particularly good question, since we've seen that Obama has been having an ill-conceald shoving match with the military (not so much with CIA, but they've never been the major movers on the combat-related spec ops).

However, there is no reason to conclude that Obama's silence on the money, and his failure to pull it out of its current earmark, is proof positive that he is continuing or expanding the same operational template that Bush/Cheney were committed to. It COULD be going down that way--but real politick analysis of "Belway Business" suggests other alternatives which are far more consistent with the totality of Obama's policies and strategies to date.

With respects,
Dr. CE Gannon
Distinguished Professor, SBU
Fulbright Senior Specialist (2004-9)

[Jon Holz]

The Timmerman article is at best beside the point. It discusses requests through the State department, not intelligence/covert ops funding.

Our military has bases in almost every country touching Iran. Given our historical preoccupation with Persian resources, I think it naive to suggest that we have backed away from creating opportunites to rock their boat--unless you have specific facts to support that notion. Obama has quickly shown himself to be a statesman that likes to speak softly while wielding a big stick. Covert ops and diplomacy are not mutually exclusive.

[ChrisE]

Abdolian,

Timmerman is executive director of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran. I assume that, as one of those who strongly advocate covert ops and was a recipient of NED funding, his complaints about funding for such activities being dropped may be significant.

No one is suggesting a white wash of US history. Many, including myself, perceive a different policy being developed. One which doesn't include the pursuit of regime change through covert operations.

Rather than hold Obama hostage to history, and assume that policy in Iran has been set on an unstoppable trajectory towards regime change via covert ops, I would suggest you cite some proof of current US covert operations in Iran.

Conjecture based on the policies of Bush, which Obama opposed, is not proof.

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

re: Mr. Holz:

I am certainly not saying that Obama is folding up the field tents and dismantling the bases. Furthermore, that would reduce his options--and Mr. Obama likes having MANY options. Regardless of political stripe, no smart Executive operates otherwise. Bush showed himself both a pawn and untalented (leaving aside the ethical atrocities for one moment of surprassing blindness) by committing to courses of action which left him with very few options other than "forward" or "reverse" (and, oh yes, "ignore").
However, to conjecture that all remains as it was from the Bush Administration because of:
1) the continued existence of the bases,
2) the retention of earmarked fund, and
3) a rather selective/subjective characterization of Obama with the phrase associated with Teddy Roosevelt

--is a bit of analytical alchemy, wherein two facts and one ad hominem opinion are alloying into what seems a confident assertion of activity. I am not saying the position/conclusion is inaccurate. I'm simply wondering aloud if, at this point, there's really any basis for such certitude re: ANY alternative. There are certainly many possibilities: there also seem to be woefully insufficient facts to support any of them conclusively.

Respects,
CEG

[sophie]

heh thanks charles that made me so happy and i cried :D i went on our roof along with my cousins and uncle just got back an hour ago and yep, i havent hered ppl yelling so loud before ^^, my bro went to the u.s about 3 weeks ago and hes trying to get in interviews but he doesnt want to be heared at all in the media cuz they might not let him back in iran! my bros wife went demonstrating but she came back she told me there were a lot of basijs and police and they were using tear gas and her head was dizzy and she didnt feel too good, i moved to the u.s with my mom about 9 months ago. i got here on sunday to visit my family and stuff ill be going back to the u.s in a month. my bro is studying political sciences and he estimated that it will take AT LEAST 1-2 years for this thing in iran to happen. i took some videos from my roof tonight but i cant upload them on youtube whenever i do my comp restarts i dont know why :( ill figure it out later. in case u were wondering how i can get in these sites with irans internet filter i have a badass anti filter program here xD gosh this government is so screwed up i was even afraid to go on my roof tonight cuz they have snipers out there -.- even if they can spot u they'll come to ur house and arrest u, some are even cautious of what they shout on the roof a lot of ppl will yell "marg bar dictator" (death to the dictator) but it takes a whole lot of courage. i know a few ppl that have been arrested but thank god they're out now, so much i want to talk about but nothing comes to my mind right now =P again if any1 has any Qs about tehran my email is sophie.mousavi@yahoo.com

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

Dear Sophie:
I continue to be amazed at your courage and what you report. If I had your permission, I would repost what you have written on Facebook. If you like, I would do so and withhold your name, for sake of your safety.

Now a practical matter: you are unable to upload graphics. The problem might not be with your computer--or not directly. It may be that the state-run server loops a command back at your computer which forces it to reboot. This could (I certainly can't be sure, but it COULD) be a measure employed by your nation's security apparatus. My advice: be VERY VERY careful. As much as we want images, we want you to remain safe. Remember: your computer has a distinctive IP address--has to use it every time you handshake with another system, particularly if you are sending out data packages like graphics, videos, etc. And if "they" are recording the IPs that are trying to send out images...well, you see where I'm going with this. Do not risk attracting the attention of the security forces. You are already doing more than enough--more than any 15 y/o woman (not girl: WOMAN) should need or be called upon to do.
Please: for yourself, and for us all, stay safe.
With Best Wishes and Concern,
CEG
PS: there must be a dozen folks reading these posts who know far better than I do if Sophie's attempts to upload images is diagnostic of a security filter, and what, if any, risk it entails for her. Please: help her and speak up. Share your expertise!

[sophie]

gah let them come and get me, the point is to free iran no matter how many lives must be lost, they cant trace me by my ip address anyway and they do do that, only trouble i could get in is cuz i live in america im not worried about that either, none of my accounts in different internet sites i use in tehran have any info about me this isnt even my real name lol, dont worry

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

Dear Sophie:
Good to hear, and I presumed/hoped much of what you wrote. But Iran spent a LOT of money on some very high-end internet/IT security (from Siemens, I believe). I admire your courage and confidence--but still: be careful. Maybe more lives must be lost--but as few as possible, yes? You are familiar with the saying, "don't tempt fate?" Uh..."don't." ;^)
One more time: be careful.
Best always,
CEG

[Dr. Charles E. Gannon]

BTW, do I have your permission to share your postings on Facebook? I know a lot of authors who'd be very interested in your story/ies....

Best,
CEG

[sophie]

mhmm i dont know.. it might be a bit risky for me, but sure ok, if u think its ok, just dont use a name for me, u know like a girl or whatever, dont use sophie. im on facebook but i dont really do anything lol i just mostly use it to stay connected with my family

[JP]

Sophie,

You might try posting some information over at http://iran.whyweprotest.net/

Many of the posters over at the site have technical knowledge and can explain ways to get the video clips posted. My non-technical sense is that the state filters are probably limiting internet speed, which makes it more difficult to post video clips online (e.g. videos eat up much more bandwidth than text).

Your brother might want to try contacting http://tehranbureau.com/ if he wants to share his story and protect his identity. Tehran Bureau's writer is based in Boston, MA in the US -- they're connected with Harvard University. Some of the bigger news organization reporters like Jim Sciutto and Lara Setrakian with ABC News in the states have been following the stories. If he has a compelling story to share they might be able to get coverage of it. He can reach them through Twitter. CNN too has it's "ireport" function on its website, which he could use to share a story and protect his identity.

Stay safe. It is crazy that people need to suffer this much just to have their voices heard and their votes counted. Hopefully everything works out OK. I admire the courage and restraint that ordinary people are showing in Iran. It is pretty amazing to witness -- even from a safe distance.

[sophie]

thanks JP, yeah ive been to both of those sites, my brother is always on news sites and into all this stuff im sure he'll find something. enduringamerica and tehranbureau arent filtered im surprised i guess its not as bad as i thought, but the internet speed here is reallyyyyy low. i remember about a year ago when i was in tehran facebook and myspace were filtered but not youtube and a lot of iranians were using yahoo 360. i was just out with my cousin and im not sure if she heared right but she told me that her dad told her they've arrested my brothers co-worker (he works in an embassy) and he was at their house hiding, im not sure tho i have to ask him myself. my bros wife told me that 2 of their friends are still arrested but the rest that have been arrested are out now. my brother is coming to tehran tonigh, i dont think he'll have a problem getting in.