Thursday
Jul092009
UPDATED Iran: A Counter-coup against the Supreme Leader's Son Mojtaba?
Thursday, July 9, 2009 at 13:10
The Latest from Iran (8 July): The Day Before….?
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UPDATE (9 JULY, 1200 GMT): After double-checking and reflecting on details, my opinion is that The Guardian story is an exaggeration of the tensions within the Iranian system. It is wrong in both factual details, such as Ali Larijani's position and that of Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari, but also in the general portrayal of a sweeping move against the Supreme Leader through the anger over Mojtaba Khameini.
But there is an important curiosity about the way this story appeared. Julian Borger is an excellent reporter and now Diplomatic Editor for The Guardian, but to my knowledge he has little experience in the Middle East and Iran. Robert Tait has been the long-time Tehran correspondent for the newspaper, and Ian Black, who has been the Middle Eastern correspondent, has filed recent stories. In contrast, Borger has generally been based in the US and Europe.
So how does a high-ranking Iranian politician come to Borger with the story? I suspect that there is a Western "broker" here, in other words, a Government or private institution (probably American or British) who knew of this Iranian politician's views and put him in contact with Borger or vice-versa.
That does not mean that The Guardian, Julian Borger, and the Iranian politician are just "puppets" of Western intrigue. Instead, it's a case of how very real internal tensions in Iran make their way out as "news".
So who is the source? The answer to that would tell you how serious this tale of a "counter-coup" could be.
On Wednesday afternoon, the website of The Guardian of London posts a story, based on “a politician with strong connections to the security apparatus”, publicising what has been discussed amongst Iranian activists for weeks: the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei (pictured), is now in charge of Iran’s paramilitary Basiji.
That, however, is only the beginning of the story. The Iranian source adds that victory over the protest — both on the streets and behind the scenes — has not been achieved, “This game has not finished. The game has only just started.”
Indeed, according to the politician, we may now be witnessing the counter-move against an election night seizure of power led by the Supreme Leader's son:
The source portrays a situation where, in part because of the anger against Mojtaba, the Supreme Leader can rely on only a minority of senior clerics, politicians like Ali Larijani, Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei have been alienated, and key commanders of the Revolutionary Guard such as General Ali Jafari have been angered.
It must be emphasised that this is a single-source story. There are elements which are shaky: for example, General Jafari has swung behind the regime's crackdown on dissent. The extent of political opposition within the regime also seems exaggerated. Larijani, for one, appears to be sitting on the fence.
Still, there is much here which corresponds with our own sources on divisions in the clerical and political leadership. Definitely a story, if not the story, to watch in forthcoming days.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
UPDATE (9 JULY, 1200 GMT): After double-checking and reflecting on details, my opinion is that The Guardian story is an exaggeration of the tensions within the Iranian system. It is wrong in both factual details, such as Ali Larijani's position and that of Revolutionary Guard commander Jafari, but also in the general portrayal of a sweeping move against the Supreme Leader through the anger over Mojtaba Khameini.But there is an important curiosity about the way this story appeared. Julian Borger is an excellent reporter and now Diplomatic Editor for The Guardian, but to my knowledge he has little experience in the Middle East and Iran. Robert Tait has been the long-time Tehran correspondent for the newspaper, and Ian Black, who has been the Middle Eastern correspondent, has filed recent stories. In contrast, Borger has generally been based in the US and Europe.
So how does a high-ranking Iranian politician come to Borger with the story? I suspect that there is a Western "broker" here, in other words, a Government or private institution (probably American or British) who knew of this Iranian politician's views and put him in contact with Borger or vice-versa.
That does not mean that The Guardian, Julian Borger, and the Iranian politician are just "puppets" of Western intrigue. Instead, it's a case of how very real internal tensions in Iran make their way out as "news".
So who is the source? The answer to that would tell you how serious this tale of a "counter-coup" could be.
On Wednesday afternoon, the website of The Guardian of London posts a story, based on “a politician with strong connections to the security apparatus”, publicising what has been discussed amongst Iranian activists for weeks: the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei (pictured), is now in charge of Iran’s paramilitary Basiji.
That, however, is only the beginning of the story. The Iranian source adds that victory over the protest — both on the streets and behind the scenes — has not been achieved, “This game has not finished. The game has only just started.”
Indeed, according to the politician, we may now be witnessing the counter-move against an election night seizure of power led by the Supreme Leader's son:
Mojtaba is the commander of this coup d'etat. The basiji are operating on Mojtaba's orders, but his name is always hidden in all of this. The government never mentions him. Everyone is angry about this. The maraji [Iran's most senior ayatollahs] and the clerics are angry, the conservatives are very angry and strongly critical of Mojtaba. This situation cannot continue with so many people on the top against it.
The source portrays a situation where, in part because of the anger against Mojtaba, the Supreme Leader can rely on only a minority of senior clerics, politicians like Ali Larijani, Mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei have been alienated, and key commanders of the Revolutionary Guard such as General Ali Jafari have been angered.
It must be emphasised that this is a single-source story. There are elements which are shaky: for example, General Jafari has swung behind the regime's crackdown on dissent. The extent of political opposition within the regime also seems exaggerated. Larijani, for one, appears to be sitting on the fence.
Still, there is much here which corresponds with our own sources on divisions in the clerical and political leadership. Definitely a story, if not the story, to watch in forthcoming days.
Reader Comments (12)
It's a very interesting story, but I'm skeptical. Most of the other evidence indicates the Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei Jr and Sr are the closest allies in this.
http://www.wiserthanthecrowd.com/2009/07/dust-settling-in-iran.html
Just more idiotic rumour mongering
if there has been any coup in the first place which is unlikely to me, who is said to be in charge of the counter-coup?
m.s.
The "coup" allegation still rests on the idea that security services either supported or pressed the Supreme Leader in ensuring that Ahmadinejad was declared the victor. Some add the element of Moqtaba being the key organiser of events.
The "counter-coup" thesis is not quite so dramatic. It rests on key politicians (Rafsanjani, for example) and senior clerics insisting on Ahmadinejad's removal from office and a curb on the Supreme Leader's authority. The most extreme versions of the thesis have elements of the Revolutionary Guard supporting those politicians and clerics.
I'll update later but, having sifted through evidence, I think The Guardian exaggerates a more gradual, subtle story of manoeuvring by a number of individuals and groups within the system. Whether this means a compromise between the Supreme Leader and politicians like Rafsanjani and even Mousavi is open to question.
S.
Scot,
Thank you for the explanation. I think a compromise is likely to be reached soon, or maybe I hope so!
m.s.,
Fingers very much crossed for that hope!
S.
Even if the specifics described in the Guardian are not accurate, I wonder if there is a growing perception in Iran that Mojtaba's role is significant in the events around & following the election. I've seen this translation of protesters' chants in a couple of places now:
--- quote from article:
Chanting a bitter new rallying cry, thousands of Iranians marched through Tehran Thursday [...]
"Mojtaba, we wish you dead, and never to become the leader," was the new cry in the streets, referring to the son of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to many analysts, Khamenei's son holds the real power in Iran and along with Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi was responsible for a virtual coup before the votes were counted to keep President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in office.
source:
Thousands rally in Tehran with bitter new cry
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/world/AP/story/1135106.html
-----
Also Nico Pitney today:
12:21 PM ET -- More video reportedly from today
[YouTube video]
In this video, via reader Chas, demonstrators are chanting, "Mojtabah, die, so we will not see you become the leader," referencing Khamenei's son (who reportedly is now leading the Basij).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/09/iran-uprising-blogging-th_n_228454.html?page=2
-----
Any thoughts on the new cry?
Amy,
I noted the reports of the chants as well. I'm being cautious because it's hard to generalise from a few reports/videos. The wider evidence of Mojtaba as the target of anger, especially "within" the system, is still elusive. Best, I think, to keep watching with the knowledge that, if there is growing hostility to Mojtaba, then that implies disappointment (and possibly more) with the Supreme Leader as well.
S.
This story has been around since the very first days of the coupe. People in Iran were passing it around. Since before the election there was word that people started talking about Mojtaba being groomed to take over from his father, the anger at the British for freezing Mojtaba's assets was also around for 3 weeks now. The hatred towards him is genuene. He is considered an Agha zadeh and near useless. Also a piece of news missed in the Guardian article was the move by Ahmadinejad to make the constitutional change to have the two term limit removed. The idea is that Ahmadinejad takes over permanent presidency as his fried Chavez and Mojtaba takes over the leadership mantle when daddy dies as their other friend Psycho Kim ...
This story circulated as early as 13th to 14th of June. What is relevant is that the Guardian has now published it and this in itself gives it some credibility. In addition there has been word that for a 30% cut, Mojtaba's assets will be unfrozen and that the British media will be instructed to back off, in return the government will stop vilifying the British and move towards normalization of ties.
whereismyvote,
MOH...The first part of what you said sounds reasonable and bears watching. Some analysts suggest that Khamenei has been positioning Mojtaba to succeed him. What you said about Ahmadinejad is consistent with that line of thought. I do agree with Scott that corroboration is needed. I think it's important to consider and discuss these possibilities, especially for the people of Iran, in order to plan for the possibility. It's equally important to label the scenarios as theory until there is more evidence. What we have been discussing is consistent with the events, but verification is needed.
As to the last point, to me it sounds very unlikely for 3 reasons:
1. I'm in the USA, but I just can't imagine the UK government doing such a thing, based in morality and ethics alone. Not that either of our governments is pure when it comes to ethics, but there are some lines I think would never be crossed.
2. Such a thing could not be kept quiet. The press would find out or a participant would leak. Something of that magnitude could not be kept secret very long. Manipulating data on WMD I could see, but not taking a cut of the frozen assets.
3. Instructing the media to back off would be an exercise in futility. It would serve to draw attention to the likelihood that somebody wants to hide something, hastening #2.
Just my thoughts
correction-- the comment "Manipulating data on WMD I could see, but not taking a cut of the frozen assets." was supposed to go at the end of #1, not #2. It was an afterthought I edited in, but botched the location ;p
[...] Mojtaba Khamenei – Tehran Bureau A response to the Guardian article: [I don't trust this site!] UPDATED Iran: A Counter-coup against the Supreme Leader’s Son Mojtaba? | Enduring America What started all of this was: پيک نت peiknet Here is the translated version: Leadership [...]