The Latest from Iran (26 July): Four Days to The Green Movement's Next Wave

The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

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2115 GMT: Meanwhile, Rafsanjani Plays It Cool. Amidst the Government chaos, the former President is playing down talk of a serious rift within the regime. According to Mehr News Agency, Rafsanjani praised the Supreme Leader, "He is a progressive and forward-looking thinker in different subjects. The propaganda by the foreign media who try to suggest that there is a power struggle in the top level of the regime is unfair injustice to the Islamic revolution."

The statement appears to be a continuation of Rafsanjani's strategy to show allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei while manoeuvring against a weakened President: "I have hope in the supreme leader to solve the current problems based on his knowledge and experience and I still stick to the solutions I offered in the Friday prayer."

With these comments, Rafsanjani is also maintaining his position against the "hard-line" members of the Assembly of Experts, who attempted to undermine him in a statement earlier this week.

2100 GMT: Well, This is a Fine Mess. Conflicting reports all night over the state of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Some accounts now say that the President fired only Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and has not dismissed the other three (Culture, Health, and Labour); Ahmadinejad apparently realised he would face a vote of confidence in Parliament if all four ministers were removed from office.

Other accounts say Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi resigned in protest. Still others say both Ejeie and Saffar-Harandi were sacked.

1700 GMT: Confusion. There are reports that President Ahmadinejad has withdrawn the dismissal of Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi (and presumably other ministers), as he did not realise that the Cabinet could no longer meet without a vote of confidence from the Iranian Parliament.

1642 GMT: Our correspondent Mani confirms our suspicions (1325 GMT) that Press TV and Fars News misrepresented the statement of Mehdi Karroubi, which supposedly criticised other opposition politicians for supporting Hashemi Rafsanjani. The "genuine" statement of Karroubi is in Etemade Melli.

1638 GMT: Abdolhossein Roohul Amini, the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in detention, has published a statement after the cancellation of his son's funeral. He has thanked all people expressing their sympathies to his family and said the memorial was cancelled to prevent any violence against the public by "oppurtunistic factions".

1635 GMT: Confirming earlier news --- President Ahmadinejad's inauguration has been scheduled for 5 August.

1630 GMT: Darius Ghanbari, a "reformist" Member of Parliament, has said, "Decisions regarding the participation of reformist MPs in the swearing-in ceremonies of Ahmadinejad, in the votes of confidence in Ahmadinejad's cabinet, and on interaction with the overnment has been postponed to the general meeting of the reformist fraction that will convene this Tuesday."

1615 GMT: Ayatollah Hashim Hashim-Zadeh Hareesi, the representative of East Azerbaijan in the Assembly of Experts, has denied that the statement signed by 16 members, which denounced Hashemi Rafsanjani, represented the opinion of the 86 representatives in the Assembly. Hareesi told journalists, "Collecting signatures by telephone, while most members of the Assembly of Experts are scattered in various cities, cannot constitute a statement."

1445 GMT: Ayatollah Yousef Sanei has declared his readiness to attend the 30 July "40th Day" ceremony for those killed by security forces on 20 June.

1430 GMT: Another Iranian official has joined the chorus against television confessions. Mohammad-Javad Larijani, Secretary of the Human Rights Headquarters of Iran's judiciary, said, “I am against the broadcasting of confessions. I think it is the judiciary officials who should explain to the people the issues and violations of election laws by the Reformists.”

The Press TV article is notable, however, for other reasons. Larijani is a possible successor to the current head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, and his interview raises other issues about detention: "When asked why some of the detainees have not been allowed to contact their families yet, Larijani stressed that all the rights of the detainees should be respected." And it breaks the silence on suspicions over abuse of prisoners, prompted by the high profile of one death: "At least one of the detainees, named Mohsen Roholamini [son of an ally of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei], has died in prison."

Larijani is the most possible candidate to replace Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi.

1325 GMT: Meanwhile, on Press TV. The state network's website says nothing about the dramatic news of Ministers being fired. Instead, it runs an article trying to break Mehdi Karroubi away from the Green Movement.

The supposed quotes from Karroubi initially portray a leader accepting the election results and working for changes in his party: “Times have changed and there is an urgent need for far-reaching party reforms. We should review the post-election developments and plan our actions accordingly."

There is a hint of Karroubi's wider concerns in his statement, “After all, we are working in an environment that is biased and unfair. Our rivals are well-equipped and we are empty-handed, in the same way we were during the elections," but Press TV then emphasises the difference between Karroubi and other challengers to the Government: "It is most interesting how the very Reformist figures, who had criticized Hashemi-Rafsanjani and had stated that his political heyday is over, are now supporting him. This is not right.”

That attack both on Rafsanjani and other opposition leaders overshadows the final sentences of the article: "Karroubi asserted that he would continue his challenge to the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad government: 'I will not step down from my complaints to the election results for as long as I live.'"

1305 GMT: The Government Breaks Apart. Now Tabnak reports that Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has been dismissed. Like Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi, also fired by the President (see 1255 GMT), Ejeie challenged Ahmadinejad in a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday over the selection of the First Vice President.

There are unconfirmed reports that the Minister of Health and the Minister of Labour have also been removed from office.

1255 GMT: Is the Ahmadinejad Government Imploding? Mehr News reports that the President has fired his Minister of Culture, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi. Earlier this week Saffar-Harandi walked out of a Cabinet meeting amidst heated debate over the appointment of the First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1245 GMT: Despite its recent setbacks, the Government seems intent on provoking a fight. It is being reported that the funeral of Mohsen Roohul Amini, the son of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's campaign manager, has been cancelled because of pressure from the authorities. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had announced they would attend the funeral of Roohul Amini, who died in detention (see 0640 GMT).

0800 GMT: In our first update just over an hour ago, we asked our Big Question: after the successes of the last week, what will be the next steps for the opposition?

Our correspondent Mani has just given us the Big Answer. Mir Hossein Mousavi Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have sent the following request to the Minister of the Interior:

We take the oppurtunity to inform you that we intend to hold a memorial service to commemorate fellow citizens of our country who lost their lives due to to the recent horrific events. We request permission to hold this memorial service on mordad 8 1388 [30 July 2009], the 40th day after the starting of these events, at the grand prayer centre of Tehran. We would like to mention that this service will not include any speeches and will only involve listening to recitations from the Holy Koran. We will also request that the participants show their respects to the departed by maintaining silence.

Significantly, this Thursday, 30 July, is not the 40th day after the 12 June election or after the first mass demonstrations (and first deaths of protestors) on 15 June. Instead it is the 40th day after 20 June, when dozens of demonstrators, including Neda Agha Soltan, were killed by Iranian security forces.

(Agence France Press now has the story, which originally appeared in the Iranian Students News Agency.)

0750 GMT: After recent reports, including footage on BBC Persian, indicating that its members have been working with Iranian security forces, Lebanon's Hezbollah has denied any involvement: these are rumours "spreading sedition and division between the two brother nations of Lebanon and Iran".

0740 GMT: The "Power Overload" Protest. Remember the recent attempts to black out Iranian cities, at the start of the 9 p.m. national news, by turning on all applicances to overload the electrical grid?

The Revolutionary Guard certainly does. General Seyed Mohammad Hejazi has announced, "The plugging in of irons at 9 pm every night is an act of subversive sabotage."


0735 GMT: More Cabinet Difficulties. The Ministry of Industry, Ali Akbar Mehrabian, has been found guilty of fraudulently trying to register an invention of another researcher as his own. Last year, the Minister of Science was forced to resign when he falsely claimed to hold a Ph.D. from Oxford University.

0725 GMT: Larijani Breaks Ranks? The Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, is resigning his position as Majority Whip. Officially, the reason is that he "understands that there is a conflict of interest" between the two roles. Given that the conflict is pretty obvious, it is more likely that Larijani is distancing himself from pro-Ahmadinejad MPs. Larijani has never sat comfortable alongside the President's supporters, and relations were further strained after the election when the Speaker called for investigations of security forces' raids on Tehran University and criticised the Guardian Council.

0715 GMT: Two weeks ago, we reported on the protest of Mohammad Reza Shajarian, the leading Iranian classical singer, against President Ahmadinejad's portrayal of his opposition as "dust". Shajarian has refused to allow Iranian state media to broadcast any of his music.

Etemade Melli has the latest on the dispute, with Shajarian promising to use all legal means to prevent any airplay.

0705 GMT: I Didn't Give In....Really. President Ahmadinejad may have been forced to dismiss the First Vice President, but he is still trying to save some face in the showdown. He has put Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in charge of his office staff.

0640 GMT: Another boost for the Green Movement yesterday with the impressive show of support in "United4Iran" gatherings across the world. As news came in of more than 2000 people in New York, the "green scroll" from the Eiffel Tower in Paris, and other demonstrations from Amsterdam to Dubai, there was a notable lifting of spirits amongst Iran activists.

Now, however, the opposition has to think through its next steps. Today "reformists" will decide whether to attend next week's inauguration of President Ahmadinejad. In an act of great political as well as humanitarian significance, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have announced they will attend the funeral of Mohsen Roohul Amini. Roohul Amini was the son of the campaign manager of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei; he died in prison after he was detained on 9 July.


Meanwhile, the regime is trying to repair internal relations. The Kayhan newspaper, having played a significant role in the pressure on President Ahmadinejad to get rid of his First Vice President, offered a limited apology to restore the image of Ahmadinejad acting in line with the Supreme Leader (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking to the participants in the 26th Koran competition, said:

The meaning of unity is that we must agree on fundamentals. Although we may disagree on less important issues this must not lead to disunity....Absolute ostracizing of others over these less important issues is not good [for the establishment] everyone must help in rebuilding the country....[The issues of the last few days] must not increase divisions, and one should not defame an individual and subsequently reject all of his capabilities based on a single issue....The Islamic republic allows people [that believe in the establishment] to have different viewpoints.

There was, however, a possible rebuke to Ahmadinejad in the Supreme Leader's warning, "These differences should not be mixed with sinful personal ambitions.

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Breathing Space

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2045 GMT: Two new videos have emerged which purport to show protests in Shiraz today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgZjgvo09R8[/youtube]

The second video is here.

2035 GMT: The Guardian reports that 36 Iranian army officers were arrested after planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's sermon in uniform in uniform, "as an act of political defiance." (via IranWire)

2030 GMT: Abbasali Kadkhodai, in an interview with FarsNews, responded to the criticisms of Rafsanjani and commented upon the Zanganeh and Akhondi letter.

Kadkhodai claimed that "the Guardian Council applied all possible legal means to ensure maximum trust in the election process". He also said that when we were investigating the election Larijani suggested  ".... that a committee compromised of  heads of the national auditory office, national prosecution office and a member of the Guardian Council be formed to investigate the complaints of the opposition candidates". Kadkhodai continued by claiming "... although this suggestion [of Larijani's] was problematic we accepted it ... but Mousavi and Karroubi rejected the proposal".

Kadkhodai claimed that contrary to the statement of Rafsanjani, "that in the given five days the Guardian Council used all opportinities to ensure trust [in the election process]." Commenting upon the fact that the Guardian council has been at the receiving end of critical statements, Kadkhodai said "unfortunately some prominent men made no effort to solve these problems. If they had done so, maybe the worries of Mr. Rafsanjani would have been addressed. Kadkhodai closed his interview by stating that "the Guardian Council has not shirked in performing its legal duties in the presidential election process and has left a good performance record".

2015 GMT: Another twist in the tale of Ahmadinejad's VP- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has just updated his personal website with a statement that says: "rumours of my resignation have been propagated by ill-intentioned people who intend to force my resignation and thereby cause the collapse of the government.  These rumours are absolute falsehoods." The confusion over his current status within the Ahmadinejad government could indicate infighting amongst Iranian conservatives.

2000 GMT: A few hours ago (see 1700 GMT) we linked to a post by Juan Cole, which suggested that Iranian hard liners weren't happy. A reader informs us that Cole has confused Ayatollah Misbah Yazdi, an ultra-hardline cleric. with Ayatollah Yazdi, also a hardline cleric.

1930 GMT: Iranian press are reporting that former President Khatami has called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government.

1700 GMT: Abbas Palizdar, who exposed the corruption of many officials including Ayatollah Yazdi, has been freed. (via IranRiggedElect)

Juan Cole thinks that the hard liners aren't happy.

1630 GMT: The Government buckles. Esfandiar Rahim Mashai- whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son- has declined appointment as 1st Vice President after pressure from Members of Parliament.

Rumour of the Day: In a meeting last Tuesday, the Supreme Leader asked Hashemi Rafsanjani to attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration. Rafsanjani angrily refused.

1500 GMT: A significant development? Conservative site Jahan News is reporting that Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned his post as Ahmadinejad's VP pick.



1445 GMT: Parlemanews also reports that 20 pro-reformist members of Parliament are officially placing a question to the Minister of the Interior Mahsooli and Minister of Information Ejehi: "these members have asked the ministers to state under what charges these individuals- many of whom have been officials of previous governments and/or previous members of parliament- have been detained."

Another 24 reformist MPs also asked the Interior Minister: "why has a political problem been treated as a security issue?" and  have also asked for clarification about the "attack to on Tehran University Dormitories".

Mehdi Karroubi, meanwhile, has continued to visit the families of detainees, and also went to the the church of St. Sarkis in Tehran to pay his respects to the Armenian-Iranian casualties of the recent plane crash. While there he offered his condolences to the family of Dr. Leon Davidian (an Armenian member of parliament of the 6th Majlis) who was amongst the casualties. Karroubi is the highest ranking politician to have paid personal respects to the Armenian casualties- the Iranian government has come under some criticism for not demonstrating enough sympathy to the Armenian-Iranian victims.

UPDATE 1430 GMT: Parlemannews has revealed new details of Rafsanjani's pilgrimage: Rafsanjani is visiting Mashad to consult with Ayatollahs Makarem-Shirazi and Safi-Golpayegani who are also on a pilgrimage to Mashad. Parlemannews states that both Ayatollahs are strongly against Ahamdinehad's Vice Presidential pick, and also reminds its readers that Ayatollah Ezeddin Zanjani, the highest ranking cleric in Mashad is in the pro-reform fraction.



0750 GMT: The New Political Front? Rassool Montajebnia, Mehdi Karroubi's deputy in the Etemade Melli reformist party, has said that it would be very useful if former President Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi established strong political parties with well-defined objectives to rally and organize their supporters. The resulting party or parties could then join forces with other parties such as Etamade Melli to advance the reformist agenda.

So, for the Karroubi camp, progress through established parties is the way forward. Montajebnia stated that the current political front of Mousavi is  currently in a rather vague state and does not have a well-defined pattern.

0745 GMT: It looks like that Russia may be growing uncomfortable with its backing of President Ahmadinejad. The "conservative" news site Khabar Online writes, "A specialist from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies has acknowledged significant irregularities in the election results, concluding that Ahmadinejad may have won but not with such a great margin".

0730 GMT: A Trip to Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani is in Mashaad on a pilgrimage to Imam Reza. The visit comes only 72 hours after President Ahmadinejad went to the city.

Meanwhile, the Government faces more pressure with criticism of the choice of Vice Presidents (see yesterday's updates), now being seen in some "conservative" press. The reformist Member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari is actively investigating methods to impeach Ahmadinejad and may use the VP issue as a rallying cry.

0700 GMT: Unsurprisingly a relatively quiet Saturday after all the tension of the day before. Both the Government and opposition appeared to be taking time to reposition.

However, another clear sign of the dynamic between Hashemi Rafsanjani's now-public position and the opposition challenge came in an open letter, published in both "conservative" and "reformist" outlets, from two advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason  with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- addressed to Ali Larijani.

The letter was originally sent to Larijani on 20 June, the day after the Supreme Leader spoke at Friday prayers. However, "regretfully these suggestions were not attended to by people in charge", so Zanganeh and Akhoondi "hope that public knowledge of this letter may be of some use". Parleman News adds the political significance: the publication of this letter is "in direct response to the critics of Mr Rafsanjani's recent speech, especially to those that take issue with Rafsanjani's statement that the Guardian Council did not effectively use the five extra days given to them [to resolve the election's irregularities]".

The letter is a useful platform, echoing Rafsanjani's address, for political progress rather than a manifesto of changes. 1) Trust must be reestablished between the two opposing sides; .2) The right to protest the election results must be officially accepted, respecting rights guaranteed by the Iranian constitution. These rights include the right to congregate to protest peacefully, the right to have a public voice, and the right to be fairly represented in other national media. Specifically, Mir Hossein Mousavi must be given the opportunity to state his position in national television.

Significantly, Zanganeh and Akhoondi follow this, in the re-publication of the 30 June letter, with an indication that the Mousavi camp has not given up the challenge to the 12 June election. Given the Guardian Council blatant support of President Ahmadinejad during and after the election, a body "comprised of prominent Iranians that are universally considered to be trustworthy" should be formed for arbitration.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi intervened in an interview with Deutsche Welle, saying that Hashemi Rafsanjani told the truth about the regime but not all the truth.

Reports contnue of arrests on Friday, including youth group members of Mir Hossein Mousavi's party.