Israel's Facebook Campaign

The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz reports, "The realization that young people are increasingly living life through their Facebook accounts recently gave birth to a new and potentially powerful tool in the fight for Israel's image." A group of 23 student from Hebrew University in Jerusalem have developed a software application which allows users to use the Facebook status line "to inform hundreds of thousands of users at any given moment about positive facts about Israel".

According to the article, "Israpedia, the Facebook application, automatically replaces run-of-the-mill musings or common tidbits with what the group's staff considers interesting though little known facts about Israel, like the fact that it is the second biggest book publisher per capita in the world, or that it has over 200 wineries producing red, white and bubbly."

The application's superiority to "run-of-the-mill musings" is built-in. While "users can always override the Israpedia status line and write their own thing" such as "Taking in the views from the security fence" or "Bibi looks absolutely ravishing today", the developers explain, "If the new user-added line stays unchanged for two days, the Israpedia application will change it to an Israel fact." Their next goal is "to take the Israpedia lines and automatically turn them into messages in Twitter".

The more cynical among you might ponder this advance in social media in the same week that Israeli authorities removed any not-so-positive references to the Nakba, the 1948 displacement of Palestinians from their land and homes, in school textbooks.

I, on the other hand, will celebrate this achievement. After all, it's an improvement on January, when pro-Israeli users were destroying Facebook groups calling attention to the damage and civilian casualties caused by Israel's invasion of Gaza.

Israel and the Middle East: France Jumps In

Over the last week, Paris has sent three signals of concern to Tel Aviv. First,President Nicolas Sarkozy said last Wednesday that an Israeli attack on Iran would be an “absolute catastrophe”.

Second, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner held talks on Friday with a Hezbollah legislator. Responding to Israeli criticisms, Kouchner said: "Hezbollah is part of the parties that participated in the recent parliamentary elections. It is natural to meet with its representatives."

And on Saturday, Ha'aretz reported, via Israel Radio,  that Kouchner had told his Lebanese interlocutors in Beirut that Washington had given Tel Aviv 6 months to halt expansion of settlements in the West Bank: "The U.S. could extend the six-month deadline, though Washington will not provide sponsorship to a renewed peace process if Jerusalem continues settlement construction."

If true, Kouchner has just set up a two-way message to Israel and Iran: while Tehran has its deadline --- negotiate by September or face tougher economic sanctions --- the Israelis are now on notice over the Palestinian process. The question is whether the French have developed this with the US.  If Tehran fails to satisfy the demands of the international community, Washington and Paris will lean more to the Israeli demand for stricter sanctions on the Islamic Republic. However, if Tehran moves to meet the demands, Washington will start ignoring the classic Israeli rhetoric on Iran's nuclear threat unless Tel Aviv halts its policy on settlements.

Israel’s Plan B on Iran: Paralyzing Sanctions?

After U.S. Vice President Joe Biden stated last week that Israel would decide for itself whether to attack Iran, a senior Israeli government official offered a "Plan B" of paralyzing sanctions against Tehran as soon as it is established that there is no hope for a dialogue: "Israel is adjusting its messages to the new circumstances created by the unrest in Iran… These things must be stated clearly now so that there is no confusion about our position.”

The official added:

Before the protests in Iran began, Israel's assessment was that the planned American-Iranian dialogue had little chance of succeeding. But in light of the protests, and the need of Iranian hard-liners to shore up their rule, Israel's intelligence community believes the chances of the dialogue even beginning, much less succeeding, are near zero… In the situation that has arisen following the protests in Iran, there is much greater international readiness for harsh steps against the regime in Tehran.

However US officials reportedly have again rejected Israel’s Plan B because the groundwork for stiffer sanctions would signal that the Obama Administration is not serious about dialogue with Tehran.

So back to Square One. What is Tel Aviv's next step in the manoeuvres between the US and Iran?

Israel-Palestine: A US-Israeli Deal on the Settlements?

Haaretz states, via the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv, that US officials are allowing the Israeli Government to continue construction of 2,500 housing units in the West Bank

Israeli Government spokesman Mark Regev would not confirm speculations but said that the US and Israel have been trying to find a common ground on the sensitive settlement issue. Washington has been silent, but "Western officials" stated that, having made some concessions, Israel could at least finish off some existing projects which are close to completion or bound to private contracts that cannot be broken.

Following Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s meetings in Washington and with US envoy George Mitchell in London, this speculation raises the question: Is the US acceptance of the 2500 units due to the specifics of private contracts and Israeli law on settlements, or have the two sides found common ground where both sides meet with some concessions?

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UPDATE (7 July, 0800 GMT): There is still a lively debate over what Joe Biden "really meant" with his words on Sunday. That seems to miss the point that the significance is what others think he meant or how they turn his words to their advantage. The latest reaction comes from the Iranian Government. where Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani issued a stern warning at a meeting in Qatar on Monday:

We will consider the Americans responsible in any adventure launched by the Zionist entity….No politician or person in the world can imagine that the Zionist entity can lead an operation without getting the green light from the United States.

Marc Lynch, always perceptive and well-informed, shares my concern with Joe Biden's Sunday statement that "Israel can determine for itself — it’s a sovereign nation — what’s in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else". He is especially concerned with how it is being interpreted by Israeli and regional media.

Lynch adds, however: "A senior White House source tells me that this is being misreported, and points me to this from White House spokesman Tommy Vietor:
'The Vice President refused to engage hypotheticals, and he made clear that our policy has not changed. Our friends and allies, including Israel, know that the President believes that now is the time to explore direct diplomatic options, as with the P5+1[talks on Iran's nuclear programme].'"

For another challenging interpretation that sees Biden's statement as part of a shrewd and subtle White House strategy on both Israel and Iran, see Josh Mull ("UJ") in the comments on the original post: "If [Obama's advisors] backpedal, I’m willing to give in and say that yes Biden gaffed. If the administration stays quiet, or even better defends Biden, then I think my reading will be in the neighborhood of accurate."

Meanwhile, the Israelis --- in line with Lynch's concern --- are quite happy to run with the idea that Biden has given them the go-ahead. Last night the Israeli Consulate in New York, via Twitter, eagerly sent out the message, "Biden on whether US would block Israeli att 2 target Iran's nuclear facilities. 'ISR has a right 2 determine its intrests.'"

The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz offers an alternative approach from Tel Aviv:

Israel is urging the United States and other countries to start preparing now for the possibility that Washington's proposed dialogue with Iran will fail, by readying a "Plan B" that includes "paralyzing sanctions" and other measures against Tehran. The U.S. has resisted this idea so far.

The Israeli messages - sent against the background of the recent unrest in Iran - have been delivered to the White House, the State Department and senior officials in the U.S. intelligence community by senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office and the Foreign Ministry. Similar messages have been sent to senior officials in Germany, Russia, France and Japan.