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Entries in Josh Mull (1)

Tuesday
Jul072009

LATEST Iran: Joe Biden's "Green Light" and an Israeli Airstrike

Video: Obama’s “No Green Light to Israel” on CNN
In Case You Missed It: Saudi Permission for Israel Attack on Iran?
Iran: Did Joe Biden Just “Green Light” an Israeli Air Strike?
Transcript: Vice President Biden on Iraq, Iran, Economy on “This Week” (5 July)
Video: “An Iranian Atomic Bomb Can Wipe Israel off the Map in a Matter of Seconds”

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BIDEN2UPDATE (7 July, 0800 GMT): There is still a lively debate over what Joe Biden "really meant" with his words on Sunday. That seems to miss the point that the significance is what others think he meant or how they turn his words to their advantage. The latest reaction comes from the Iranian Government. where Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani issued a stern warning at a meeting in Qatar on Monday:
We will consider the Americans responsible in any adventure launched by the Zionist entity….No politician or person in the world can imagine that the Zionist entity can lead an operation without getting the green light from the United States.

Marc Lynch, always perceptive and well-informed, shares my concern with Joe Biden's Sunday statement that "Israel can determine for itself — it’s a sovereign nation — what’s in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else". He is especially concerned with how it is being interpreted by Israeli and regional media.

Lynch adds, however: "A senior White House source tells me that this is being misreported, and points me to this from White House spokesman Tommy Vietor:
'The Vice President refused to engage hypotheticals, and he made clear that our policy has not changed. Our friends and allies, including Israel, know that the President believes that now is the time to explore direct diplomatic options, as with the P5+1[talks on Iran's nuclear programme].'"

For another challenging interpretation that sees Biden's statement as part of a shrewd and subtle White House strategy on both Israel and Iran, see Josh Mull ("UJ") in the comments on the original post: "If [Obama's advisors] backpedal, I’m willing to give in and say that yes Biden gaffed. If the administration stays quiet, or even better defends Biden, then I think my reading will be in the neighborhood of accurate."

Meanwhile, the Israelis --- in line with Lynch's concern --- are quite happy to run with the idea that Biden has given them the go-ahead. Last night the Israeli Consulate in New York, via Twitter, eagerly sent out the message, "Biden on whether US would block Israeli att 2 target Iran's nuclear facilities. 'ISR has a right 2 determine its intrests.'"

The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz offers an alternative approach from Tel Aviv:
Israel is urging the United States and other countries to start preparing now for the possibility that Washington's proposed dialogue with Iran will fail, by readying a "Plan B" that includes "paralyzing sanctions" and other measures against Tehran. The U.S. has resisted this idea so far.

The Israeli messages - sent against the background of the recent unrest in Iran - have been delivered to the White House, the State Department and senior officials in the U.S. intelligence community by senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office and the Foreign Ministry. Similar messages have been sent to senior officials in Germany, Russia, France and Japan.