Israel and the Middle East: France Jumps In

Over the last week, Paris has sent three signals of concern to Tel Aviv. First,President Nicolas Sarkozy said last Wednesday that an Israeli attack on Iran would be an “absolute catastrophe”.

Second, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner held talks on Friday with a Hezbollah legislator. Responding to Israeli criticisms, Kouchner said: "Hezbollah is part of the parties that participated in the recent parliamentary elections. It is natural to meet with its representatives."

And on Saturday, Ha'aretz reported, via Israel Radio,  that Kouchner had told his Lebanese interlocutors in Beirut that Washington had given Tel Aviv 6 months to halt expansion of settlements in the West Bank: "The U.S. could extend the six-month deadline, though Washington will not provide sponsorship to a renewed peace process if Jerusalem continues settlement construction."

If true, Kouchner has just set up a two-way message to Israel and Iran: while Tehran has its deadline --- negotiate by September or face tougher economic sanctions --- the Israelis are now on notice over the Palestinian process. The question is whether the French have developed this with the US.  If Tehran fails to satisfy the demands of the international community, Washington and Paris will lean more to the Israeli demand for stricter sanctions on the Islamic Republic. However, if Tehran moves to meet the demands, Washington will start ignoring the classic Israeli rhetoric on Iran's nuclear threat unless Tel Aviv halts its policy on settlements.