Afghanistan Strategy: Obama "WTF?" to His Military

Earlier this year we paid close attention to the conflict between White House advisors and military commanders over the latter's request for increased troop levels to "win" Afghanistan. The dispute was resolved in the short-term by a compromise plan to send more than 20,000 additional personnel, and it has been overshadowed recently by the change in command in Afghanistan. It was only a matter of time, however, before the bottom line --- is a force level of more than 60,000 (compared with 38,000 at the start of this year) going to be enough? --- was going to be resurrected.

Today it appears that the Obama camp has made a move to pre-empt additional military demands.

Bob Woodward reports in The Washington Post, "National security adviser James L. Jones told U.S. military commanders here [in Afghanistan] last week that the Obama administration wants to hold troop levels here flat for now, and focus instead on carrying out the previously approved strategy of increased economic development, improved governance and participation by the Afghan military and civilians in the conflict."

There are a number of levels to Jones' message and its appearance in a report by Woodward, investigative reporter turned trusted White House insider. The first is that this has the Presidential seal of approval: "Jones was carrying out directions from President Obama, who said recently, 'My strong view is that we are not going to succeed simply by piling on more and more troops.'" The second is that the White House is putting out the message that non-military measures have to take priority in any long-term resolution:

"This will not be won by the military alone," Jones said in an interview during his trip. "We tried that for six years....The piece of the strategy that has to work in the next year is economic development. If that is not done right, there are not enough troops in the world to succeed."

The immediate message, however, is that Obama does not want the military taking the lead on this issue or --- as they did in the first weeks of his Presidency --- working the media to undercut him. Conscious that, in January, the generals tried to lock Obama by putting completed reviews on his desk, Obama despatched Jones to Afghanistan as the new US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, is conducting a 60-day evaluation of "all the issues in the war". Now it is the military, not the President, who will be locked in:

Jones has told Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that they should focus on implementing the current strategy, completing the review and getting more Afghan forces involved in the fight before requesting additional U.S. troops for Afghanistan.

The battle in Washington and in the field will continue, "One senior military officer said privately that the United States would have to deploy a force of more than 100,000 to execute the counterinsurgency strategy of holding areas and towns after clearing out the Taliban insurgents." However, as the balance of the article makes clear, the White House will be pointing its military towards bringing in more Afghan forces rather than coming back with requests for additional US boots on the ground. Here is the message, brought by Jones to the generals and by Woodwardian anecdote to the US public:

During the briefing, [Marine Brigadier General Lawrence D.] Nicholson had told Jones that he was "a little light," more than hinting that he could use more forces, probably thousands more. "We don't have enough force to go everywhere," Nicholson said.

But Jones recalled how Obama had initially decided to deploy additional forces this year. "At a table much like this," Jones said, referring to the polished wood table in the White House Situation Room, "the president's principals met and agreed to recommend 17,000 more troops for Afghanistan."....Soon after that, Jones said, the principals told the president, "oops," we need an additional 4,000 to help train the Afghan army.

"They then said, 'If you do all that, we think we can turn this around,' " Jones said, reminding the Marines here that the president had quickly approved and publicly announced the additional 4,000

Now suppose you're the president, Jones told them, and the requests come into the White House for yet more force. How do you think Obama might look at this? Jones asked, casting his eyes around the colonels. How do you think he might feel?
Jones let the question hang in the air-conditioned, fluorescent-lighted room. Nicholson and the colonels said nothing.

Well, Jones went on, after all those additional troops, 17,000 plus 4,000 more, if there were new requests for force now, the president would quite likely have "a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot moment." Everyone in the room caught the phonetic reference to WTF -- which in the military and elsewhere means "What the [expletive]?"

Nicholson and his colonels -- all or nearly all veterans of Iraq -- seemed to blanch at the unambiguous message that this might be all the troops they were going to get.

Jones, speaking with great emphasis to this group of Iraq veterans, said Afghanistan is not Iraq. "We are not going to build that empire again," he said flatly.