The Latest from Iran (22 July): "The Pendulum Swings" Towards Opposition

The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

NEW Iran: Your Easy-to-Use Ayatollah Scorecard
NEW Iran: Playing the "National Security" Card
The Latest from Iran (21 July): The Lull in the Cycle of Protest
NEW Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21 July)

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1945 GMT: During a relatively slow period in Iran news, have been following an interesting discussion at Anonymous Iran, sparked by Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief": "they are well written and structured, and even better, they report from a "grass-root" level so that I'm able to get a better "feel" and emotional picture of what really is happening. However, does the method used in gathering this information hold up to established journalistic standards?"

1900 GMT: The Significance of the Event, not the Message. Mir-Hossein Moussavi said Wednesday that protests would continue until all demonstrators are released.

That is distinctive not because of the statement, which is merely a reiteration of what Mousavi said to families of detainees on Monday, but because of the audience. Mousavi was speaking to journalists, a significant relaxation of the restrictions put on his movements and access to media by the Iranian Government in recent weeks.

1525 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, responding to questions from a "concerned person", has issued a fatwa regarding the inauguration of President Ahmadinejad

If the individual [claiming to be president] has attained his position  illegitimately and fraudulently, the inauguration ceremonies and investment of power done by the supreme leader will  are not sufficient to confer legitimacy [upon the aforementioned president] because [the act of] performing these ceremonies is not the main foundation upon which [presidential legitimacy is built upon] . These ceremonies can only invest power if the president has reached his position through an honest election process.

1245 GMT: More arrests...and more evidence that lawyers are being targeted, possibly to deter them from taking up the cases of detainees (see 1030 GMT). Lawyers Mohammad Reza Azimi and Mostafa Sha'bani have been detained.

1120 GMT: Another Ayatollah for Rafsanjani. Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib has written an open letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Calling the former President "the old and loyal friend of the Departed Imam", Ayatollah Khomeini, Dastghaib says, "Your speech expressed all anxieties of many people of this land. all of them who are devout Shi'a muslims, and you pointed out their grievances. We saw violence acted on defenceless people, especially upon unversity students and faculty. [Everyone also saw] the filling up of prisons and brutal interogations."

Praising Rafsanjani's "reasonable suggestions to alleviate" the crisis, Dastghaid also declared, "I proclaim...using any kind of weapon ("warm" or "cold") or imposing confinement on the followers of these gentlemen [Mousavi, Karroubi and Rezaei] is equivalent to heresy....[Applying these methods] will not protect the establishment, and [these methods] are unacceptable for protecting Islam and the revolution. this behavior alienates people from Islam and the establishment."

Dastgheib concluded, "It is imperative for us [the Marjaa, upper-ranking clergy] to listen to the reasonable demands of the friends of the Imam [Khomeini] and the revolution such as Mssrs. Mousavi, Karroubi, and Rezaei, whom a very large number of people have voted for..... [This] will prevent any separation coming between us and the people."

1110 GMT: More on the battle between the Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad camps over "corruption" (0600 GMT). The Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, claimed that Rafsanjani's brother donated approximately $5 million dollars (in Iranian currency) to the Presidential campaign of Mohsen Rezaei campaign. Mohammad Hashemi-Rafsanjani categorically stated, "We have not paid a penny to any campaign" and challenged the accusor to bring the allegations to court. The Rezaei camp, represented by Ali Ahmadi,  responded by  calling the charges "pure fabrication "and said, "Our budget is a thousand times smaller than Zolnour's favorite [Ahmadinejad]....If Zolnour can not either prove or withdraw his allegations we will take this case to court".

1045 GMT: Reports now emerging of plans for a rally by Mousavi and Karroubi supporters in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament, on the day of President Ahmadinejad's inauguration (sometime between 2 and 6 August).

1030 GMT: Lots of Internet chatter about the fate of Mohammad Ali Dadkhah, a human rights lawyer and founder of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi’s human rights group, who was arrested on 9 July. Dadkhah has now been charged with possession of two pistols and opium; his defenders believed he is being singled out to intimidate lawyers from representing detainees.

Dadkhah is the lawyer for Abdolfatah Soltani, another human rights lawyer, who was arrested on 16 June.

0730 GMT: Cracks in the Security Wall? As we reported yesterday, Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, is talking tough:

The security forces will stand in front of any individual of whatever rank that tries to disregard law....[These] individuals create crisis in order to grab power and are the same individuals that claim that they follow the ways of the revolution and Imam [Khomeini] but in fact disregard the principles of supreme leadership....If someone loses an election and then tries to nullify the results, he makes the whole election process useless.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam's deputy added, "The police will punish any illegal gathering."

In contrast the new head of the political-religious office of the Iranian Armed Forces, seems to have distanced the military from the conflict: "Today one of the reasons why the Iranian Armed forces are so popular is that it has refrained from entering the political fray.....Members of the armed forces should be the most well versed in political issues while they remain above the fray."

0715 GMT: Favourite entry from the "Green Brief" by Josh Shahryar on yesterday's demonstrations:

Many eyewitness accounts reported that some security forces would stop running after protesters and start cursing their superiors. Many complained of fatigue and were seen panting and telling protesters, “To just go and leave us alone.”

0620 GMT: So, Did the "Power Overload" Protest Work? After Tuesday night's attempt to black out the Iranian electrical grid by turning on appliances, an interesting announcement from the Tehran electricity authority: "Observe the correct pattern of electricity consumption especially in peak electricity consumption hours."

0615 GMT: Picking up on a story from Monday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, said that her brother has been detained for more than a month. It was widely known, soon after the elections, that members of Mousavi's family had been arrested, but Rahnavard's statement is the first direct confirmation of continued detention.

0600 GMT: More on growing Rafsanjani confidence and Ahmadinejad weakness. Rafsanjani's brother Mohammad Hashemi has said he will take court action over allegations of corruption against Rafsanjani made by the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guard.

Meanwhile a Presidential representative has complained that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is not giving "fair" coverage to Ahmadinejad: "[IRIB was] not willing to communicate the heartfelt and emotional scenes" of the President's Thursday appearance in Mashaad.


0545 GMT: Our correspondent Mani posts on an another sign of shifting opinion:

It is interesting that the conservative-leaning Khabar Online is becoming more and more favourable to Mousavi, as it gives space and attention to his proposal for a political front, which "will be formed within a week". The news site states that "[all] reformist parties and groups and some conservative ones have shown interest in joining Mousavi's political front", although Mousavi "seems to be selective with regards to which groups he would like to include in this front".

Khabar Online received this news directly from Alireza Beheshti, one of Mousavi's chief advisors, who said, "By Thursday Mousavi will acknowledge the individuals advising him in forming this political front and will also [provide definitions] making this political front unique". The story reports that Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of the Majlis (Parliament), has said, "In our meeting with Mousavi we told him that if he works the framework of law, we will support him....We are not joining his party but we will support his political activity that is within the framework of law." The "we" in this statement refers to Bahonar, Habibollah Asgharoladi and Yahya Ale-es-hagh, members of a conservative fraction of parliament who met with Mousavi a few weeks before.

(It should be added that Bahonar's manoeuvre is not an open challenge to the election but support of what he sees as a positive compromise. In another newspaper interview, he criticised Ahmadinejad: "He should not equate criticism with sabotage....No one has given his performance an A+." However, he also said, "Mousavi has a huge misconception that he has won....Mousavi asked us to nullify the elections and we refused.")

Khabaronline then reports on, and criticises the response of state-run media: "[In addition to their denuciations of Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi] government supporters are clamouring that the legal formation of a political front also requires official permission from the interior ministry....This clamor is just a red herring that diverts attention from the main issue: the fact that during the election the contemptuous treatment of the law led to a great unease and anxiety and that the people converging on Mousavi are the same ones that warned society of the dangers of this contempt."

0515 GMT: Tuesday was an unusual day. My morning update mentioned the possibility of an afternoon protest, coming one month after the big demonstrations of 20 June and the death of Neda Agha Soltan and 57 years after a protest for the nationalist Government of Mohammad Mossadegh, but did not make much of it. Almost every day brings chatter about a march, and there was no sign of endorsement for the gathering from any of the opposition leaders.

By late afternoon, however, it was clear that there had been far-from-unimportant marches. The numbers are uncertain, though even cautious news agencies were ready to say "thousands" rather than "hundreds". The security forces again prevented a single mass gathering, notably in 7 Tir Square.

However, the persistence and size of the demonstrations was significant enough to pick up widespread attention. CNN ran a dramatic report linking protests and alleged footage of Basiji firing at the crowd. For the first time in many days, BBC English took notice; indeed, their correspondent Jon Leyne, almost silent after his expulsion from Iran weeks ago, was declaring that "the pendulum had swung" again and that there must be major change in the Iranian system.

The BBC report is over-dramatic, at least at this point, but Tuesday was more than a sign that the story continues, especially with confirmation that sizable demonstrations have taken place outside Tehran. The public demonstrations needs to be set alongside, and indeed intertwined with the pressure within the system against not only President Ahmadinejad but also the Supreme Leader. The short but sharp response of Hashemi Rafsanjani,indirectly but clearly addressing Ayatollah Khomeini's attempt on Monday to intimidate the opposition leaders, should not be underestimated. The former President was not only endorsing protest but encouraging it.

In that context, it remains to be seen whether the Supreme Leader's continuing strategy to confront rather than compromise --- his Monday address should be set alongside his 19 June prayer speech, which will eventually either be seen as a defiant assertion of his power or one of the greatest blunders he has ever made --- will work. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is looking not only foolish but foolhardy. He seems to have received no boost from his Thursday speech in Mashaad (see separate entry on the video dispute), which was overtaken by Rafsanjani's weekend trip to the city, and his manoeuvres in the choice and defence of his first Vice President have been clumsy. Perhaps more than clumsy --- having unsettled many of his own supporters, Ahmadinejad looks foolhardy in his resistance to Khamenei's call to let Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai go.

The Latest from Iran (21 July): No Lull in the Cycle of Protest

The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

NEW Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21 July)
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (17 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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2200 GMT: Press TV jumps in on the debate over the choice of Iran's 1st Vice President, and it is siding with the Supreme Leader rather than President Ahmadinejad:

A senior Iranian parliamentarian says the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has advised the president to reverse his decision in appointing Esfandyar Rahim-Masha'i as his top deputy.

"Without any delay, the removal or acceptance of Masha'i's resignation must be announced by the president," Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, the first Majlis [Parliament] vice speaker, told the Iranian Students News Agency on Tuesday....The removal of Rahim-Masha'i from key positions and presidential deputies is the collective decision of the political establishment.”

1930 GMT: No confirmed reports on whether the "power overload" protest scheduled for 9 p.m. local time (1630 GMT) succeeded in causing blackouts, although there were unconfirmed claims that parts of Tehran, Karaj, and Qazvin lost power.

1910 GMT: The pro-Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz confirms that, in addition to Sunday's demonstrations in Tehran and Shiraz, there were sizable protests in Tabriz.

1900 GMT: A source expands on our post about Hashemi Rafsanjani's sharp response today to Ayatollah Khamenei:

Rafsanjani's website has recently posted a part of his memoirs that can be interpreted as a retort to Khameini's not so well concealed threats. The key section of this posting is as follows:

"An individual must not be intimidated by anything in this world. Whenever an individual faces a test it is insufficient to only have good intentions and unacceptable to limit oneself to empty slogans and claims. Each generation faces a test and challenge and the greatest test a man faces is when because of his love to god he is asked to sacrifice his spouse, his children and his capital. One must be brave."

Rafsanjani's website concludes the preceding paragraph with the following commentary: "The ironclad strength of these words indicate that the young Rafsanjani in his "struggle for the rights of people", had been well schooled by the great Khomeini on how to move beyond fear."

1845  GMT: We've posted the first video from today's protests in a separate entry.

1745 GMT: A Showdown between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei? Yes, you read that right. A source confirms our report (1600 GMT) that the Supreme Leader has ordered the President to force the resignation of his Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. However, an update claims that Ahmadinejad has insisted in an interview that the VP will remain in office: "Rahim-Mashai is a great supporter of the Islamic Regime, is a great believer in the principle of supreme leadership, leads a simple life and has served the public with distinction. He has been chosen as a VP and will continue to serve."

1740 GMT: I apologise for this morning's inaccurate headline, "A Lull in the Cycle of Protest". It has now been changed.

1730 GMT: BBC English has decided that maybe, just maybe, it should be paying attention to Iran again. I am listening to a report from Jon Leyne, who had been evicted from the country, has been brought back to say, "The pendulum could be swinging back to the opposition." He adds that he has heard from a source inside Iran that "defiance is growing". He concludes, "The system has been badly damaged by this....This is a country in the throes of change." The BBC website is also reporting that "hundreds, even thousands" of people protested.

1700 GMT: Reports, as with previous protests, that cellphone service cut in central Tehran. Claims that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting facilities surrounded by special forces as crowds chant slogans.

1600 GMT: According to Parleman News, the Supreme Leader ordered President Ahmadinejad to remove his choice as Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who is also the father of Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law: “Without any delay, the dismissal order or Mashaei’s resignation must be announced by the President.” (NIAC Insight has an English summary.)

1550 GMT: Al Arabiya, citing "a witness", is now headlining, "Iran police clash with protesters", with hundreds at 7 Tir Square and dozens detained: "The witness said the protesters were chanting slogans against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the government, including 'Ahmadinejad -- resign, resign' and 'Death to the dictator'.

1510 GMT: Reports that protests are building in Tehran, particularly near 7 Tir Square. Reuters is first "mainstream" agency to report clashes with security forces.

1440 GMT: Reports of clashes between demonstrators and security forces at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran and Cinema Saadi Cross in Shiraz. People have moved to 7 Tir Square Square, but claims of attacks with tear gas as security forces hold the squares.

1430 GMT: The text of the letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani by two pro-Mousavi advisors --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- with a "fundamental framework of the proposed solution" has now been posted on the Internet.

The letter was sent on 20 June but only released on Sunday (see our updates on 19 July for a summary).

1400 GMT: The Ultimate Enemy - More on the denunciation of the Khatami call for referendum by Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari (see 1130 GMT). Shariatmadari has claimed the proposal has the "same instructions as Michael Ledeen, read the CIA" have proposed for regime change in Tehran. Ledeen, a rabid critic of the Iranian system who pressed for military action to overthrow it in 2003, is based at the American Enterprise Institute.

1130 GMT: Holding the Line. "Conservative" newspapers have denounced the call by former President Khatami and the Assocation of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government. Hossein Shariatmadari, appointed by the Supreme Leader as the managing director of Kayhan, echoed Ayatollah Khamenei's "foreign intervention" theme, "They have suggested yet another Western plot to raise havoc by proposing a referendum. The main idea of this plan is to trigger tension. Their proposal is illegal and impractical." An editorial in Khabar asserted, "Such controversial proposals, despite their appeal to protestors... challenge the basis of the system. A referendum would create challenges which our country cannot harbour and it would incite unrest instead of building confidence."

1010 GMT: Reports that today's march, commemorating a 1952 rally for the Government of Mohammad Mossadegh, will take place at 3 p.m. local time (1030 GMT) from Rezaie Square to Mossadegh's tomb.

1000 GMT: The chief of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has accused the opposition of "inciting sedition" and declared his force would act firmly to uphold the law. "Some people who failed to realize their election goal go on spreading doubt in different ways and then turn that ... into inciting sedition," Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam said. "This group of individuals voice the slogan of law abidance but they themselves do not observe the law ... they are sheer liars."

0945 GMT: The Battle is On, Round Two. No more questions, as in the first weeks of the post-election conflict, as to whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will work only behind the scenes. The former President has taken on the Supreme Leader's Monday speech, writing in a quote from his memoirs, "There is a test for every generation. People's issues are the most important test for this one."

0645 GMT: More on Mousavi meeting with detainees' families (see 0500 GMT). A valued source sends in these quotes from the opposition leader:

[Connecting the arrested with foreign governments] is a defensive tactic employed by individuals that that are threatened by [the idea] of people being free. This [fictititious] connection only serves as a pretext and justification, but everyone knows what these arrests are really about. Our people know that these arrested individuals have gentle and impressive personalities that have served this establishment for many years and it would be impossible to believe that any of them will sell National Interests to foreigners.....[These allegations] are an insult to the public's vote and their intelligence and will have its unsavory consequences.

The Iranian people saw corruption in the election process and sponteneously rallied to defend their rights. This wave of indignation will not be quenched by thousands or even ten thousands of arrests....We are stating that what has happened is against the law and against the ideals of the revolution and against the constitution and against the will of the people.

A government that establishes itself by hook or crook will be a weak government. It will be a government that will give major concessions to foreign governments, because it lacks popular support. Returning people's trust [to government] has an extremely high priority for us, because a loss of this trust may have serious consequences for our country."

[Upholding] individual freedoms of the people has a can ensure the security of society in a much more positive way than security crackdowns with wooden and metal clubs, in fact these crackdowns compromise the security of our country. Our people are much more mature [to deserve] a regression to pre-revolutionary unacceptable methods.

0635 GMT: Keeping It in the Family. President Ahmadinejad may have been rebuffed in his attempt to name the father of his daughter-in-law as a Vice President, but Mowj-e-sabz claims that Ahmadinejad's son-in-law Mehdi Khorshidi will be the head Presidential Secretary, and the husband of Ahmadinejad's sister-in-law will be the head of the Iranian national youth organization.

0625 GMT: An intriguing follow-up reports on Sunday's demonstrations in Shiraz (see video in our updates for 19 July) in the Ehsan ampitheatre. The website Mowj-e-sabz claims that this rally, "a gathering of the election campaign managers of Mousavi and Karroubi", is the "first official gathering of the reformists after the elections and it also is the first gathering of the reformers that has a permit".

Given that the Government has not given a permit for demonstration in Tehran since 15 June, apart from the Beheshti memorial at Qoba mosque on 28 June, this rally was likely to have received permission from provincial officials. So who are they and will they now face retribution from the regime?

0600 GMT: There are reports that protestors will turn out on the streets today, linking the demonstration to one on the same day in 1952 in support of the nationalist Government of Mohammad Mossadegh.

0500 GMT: The crisis in Iran has now "settled", if that word can be used, into a rhythm in which a prominent show of opposition is followed by a regime reaction and then a few days of quiet. Friday's address by Hashemi Rafsanjani brought a response from the Supreme Leader yesterday, and this morning both sides are taking a step back to assess the position. The one scheduled event for today is the "power overload" protest for 9 p.m. local time, with demonstrators hoping to black out the national news by switching on electrical appliances.

Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises one notable development, the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi with families of detainees. The opposition leader is using these occasions not only to show support for the detained and their relatives but also to indicate that protest has not ebbed and to set out political positions. Yesterday he said the Green Movement was peaceful but was ready to make sacrifices, declaring, “The Iranian Nation had matured and that the use of pre-1979 tactics wouldn’t be enough to silence it....The Nation had been reborn and was going to defend its achievements.”

Mousavi asked the government to ensure freedom of speech and condemned ongoing arrests. And, in a rebuttal to the line of the Supreme Leader, he said it was “an insult to the Iranian Nation to suggest that foreigners had orchestrated the post-election protests in Iran".

Mousavi's Facebook page also continues to be an active location to challenge the Government. This morning it has countered an appearance by the Iranian Foreign Minister, declaring, "WE ARE THE MEDIA!" It is featuring the call by the Association of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government (see yesterday's updates), and it is highlighting a video, which allegedly shows a lack of public turnout for President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad on Friday (see separate entry).

LATEST Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (16 July)

The Latest from Iran (21 July): The Lull in the Cycle of Protest

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEEDUPDATE 22 July: Another small video twist: this new footage popped up today, claiming to show a protest against Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePTj_w6qrfU[/youtube]

This video surfaced last night. Activists claim it shows the lack of support for President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad, which came the day before Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of prayers in Tehran.

Given the limited quality of the film, and given possibilities for manipulation, we are cautious about the conclusions, but Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign is now featuring this to question the legimitacy of the Government.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6biC1n7GfDE[/youtube]

A reader (see comments below) has pointed us to evidence that Ahmadinejad's speech was heard by a large audience. The footage is from Press TV, who said in a story on the speech, "Ahmadinejad criticizes opposition to Iran vote", that the President spoke "to thousands of people":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5C7HwtNByQ[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani's Prayers

NEW The “Other” Rafsanjani: Faezeh Hashemi Criticises Supreme Leader, Government, Khatami
NEW Iran: How Friday's Prayers Might Develop
UPDATED Iran: How Many Protesters Have Died?
The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers

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1940 GMT: A contact reports that Ahmadinejad's business trip to Mashad could be met with opposition demonstrations. Online rumour has it that an 'assassination attempt' will be staged by the Ahmadinejad camp, which will provide an excuse to increase security and surveillance in Iran- which can then be used against the opposition.

1930 GMT: A group of scholars have released a letter in support of Ayatollah Ostadi, who said after leading prayers in Qom last Friday that they would be his last for the foreseeable future. [Link: Persian / English via iran88] One of the scholars is Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli. [Link: Persian / English]

1920 GMT: An article on the UG Government's Radio Farda site demonstrates the diversity of opinion over what may be in The Rafsanjani speech tomorrow. The staunchlly pro-Government Kayhan is asking for a "unifying speech that is worthy of a pillar of Islamic leadership", while members of the reformist party have stated that "generally speaking, Mr. Rafsanjani's speeches in Friday prayers  have always had large political significance with huge effects".

1715 GMT: A possibly significant development from Wikileaks on the resignation of Aghazadeh as head of the Iranian nuclear programme: "Week ago, source in Iran gave WL a report of a nuclear accident at Natanz. Now Iran's nuke head resigns-no reason. Anyone know more?"

1610 GMT: Twitter's IranRiggedElect states that Mehdi Karroubi will also attend Friday prayers. (AUT News link, in Persian).

1600 GMT: The Guardian has updated its database of dead and detained in Iran- it now contains almost 700 names.

1545 GMT: Twitter's iranbaan reports says that, "Etemade Melli newspaper reports that Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Ali  Nategh Nouri will not attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration ceremony."

1230 GMT: How Big is This News? Iranian Students News Agency reports that the head of Iran's nuclear programme, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, submitted his resignation to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad almost three weeks ago.

It is unclear if the resignation is related to post-election conflict and why news of it was not released until now. An Enduring America correspondent notes, however, that the development could be very unsettling in the ongoing manoeuvres between Iran and the "West": "Aghazadeh was close to Ayatollah Khamenei but had also developed a good rapport with [former International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammad] El-Baradei. He was one of the last of the Khatami-era officials."

Combined with Hillary Clinton's clumsy statement on Iran yesterday --- the US will "engage" but only to the end of September --- this news points to difficulties related to but beyond Iran's internal situation.

0835 GMT: Some public threats are being made that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami "will be beaten up" in Friday prayers. Possibly in response, the conservative newspaperKayhan has declared that " while some individuals claiming to be hezbollah [followers of the party] may engage in thuggish behavior, the intelligent Iranian public should recognize that this behavior is not hezbollah etiquette and should ostracize such individuals".

0830 GMT: More on the efforts of the Interior Ministry (0700 GMT) to check the protests. The ministry, which currently can authorise or ban political parties, has taken the unprecedented step of declaring that its permission is required for a "political front" of groups. The step comes after news this week that Mir Hossein Mousavi was seeking to form a front for the opposition challenge.

0745 GMT: Fintan Dunne has offered an estimate of 245 protester deaths since 12 June. We've posted an analysis in our separate blog on the casualties.

0700 GMT: The Regime Strikes Back (a Bit). Interior Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie shook a fist at the opposition in a press conference on Wednesday, claiming that the Intelligence Ministry enquiries into post-election conflict were finding culprits: "The role of some of these political figures has been proven and their case is nearing completion."

Beside putting out an unsubtle warning 48 hours before Friday prayers, Mohseni-Ejeie was also indicating that the Government would hold out against pressure to release detainees. As cases were still being investigated, "no exact time can be announced for their release." He added that confessions obtained from those arrested could be made public, should the country's judiciary decides to do so.

0500 GMT: Just over 24 hours to go before Friday prayers in Tehran, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and all is relatively quiet in Iran. The one important exception was last night's confirmation by Mir Hossein Mousavi that he will join the march to the prayer site. The news, which broke on Mousavi's website and Facebook page, was reconfirmed three hours ago.

In the lull before the event, the most intriguing discussion has been of Rafsanjani's approach tomorrow. Maryam at Keeping the Change has an excellent consideration of "the delicate balancing act that Rafsanjani will likely play on Friday". Reviewing both the former President's objectives and the hopes and fears of the opposition movement, Maryam summarises from "a source in the Mousavi campaign": "They are expecting Rafsanjani's speech to unite the opposing factions, though they also believe he will speak about the rights of the people and be critical of the government's treatment of them during the election crisis."

That assessment points to some interesting realities and some even more interesting questions. Rafsanjani's emergence highlights the striking weakness of President Ahmadinejad, whose relegation to the sidelines has been further illustrated by his flight to Mashaad and thus his non-appearance in Tehran on Friday. Just as striking has been the recent silence of the Supreme Leader. I cannot recall a statement by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the 18 Tir protests of last Thursday, which were scathing about the supposed role of his son, Mojtaba, in manipulating the election and leading security forces against the opposition.

But this is no means now a simple alliance of Rafsanjani with the Green Movement against the Government. Maryam's assessment points to the negotiation that is taking place between the former President, who after all was a key reason why Khameini ascended to the Supreme Leadership, and those who have been pressing for substantial change to the system. If Rafsanjani calls for a unity government, does Mousavi accept? Under what conditions? What of the reactions of Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and other opposition leaders, some of whom still remain in detention? And how would the Rafsanjani appeal be received by a fragmented clerical leadership in Qom?

Maybe more importantly, is "compromise", if that is the word offered or hinted at by Rafsanjani, a word that will be accepted by a mass of protesters who have rallied but then been beaten --- verbally, emotionally, and sometimes physically --- by those in power?

The "Other" Rafsanjani: Faezeh Hashemi Criticises Supreme Leader, Government, Khatami

The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani’s Prayers
Iran: How Friday’s Prayers Might Develop

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Yesterday a video emerged of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of the former Presdent Hashemi Rafsanjani, answering questions from an informal audience. A reader passed us the footage, which is from about two weeks ago, but before featuring it, we wanted to get a reliable translation of Hashemi's answers. A correspondent, to whom we are very grateful has evaluated the two-part video (second part follows on the jump page, with the rest of the analysis of Hashemi's answers:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSWuqRd_sGE[/youtube]

1) FH states the irregularities and fraud during the election:

a) there was a shortage of observers;
b) there were irregularities in providing adequate documentation for observers;
c) SMS system was disconnected so observers couldn't coordinate;
d) irregularities in the closing time of polls;
e) the ballot boxes were stuffed;

She concludes that the the foundation of this election is very shaky. She then comments about Khamenei and makes the following points:

1) Khamenei wants Ahmadinajad to be in office. He has never been the uncontested Supreme Leader until Ahmadinejad came to office.
2) Khamenei is supported by the Basiji, the Revolutionary Guard, Ansar Hezbollah, etc., and the interests of these groups are aligned with Ahmadinejad. Khamenei must maintain the interests of these groups or he will be replaced. Therefore Khamenei's behavior is self-preservation.

She concludes this section, "We have a weak democracy that is being crippled. we should not repeat our historical mistakes. Generally speaking we iranians make heros out of individuals but we kill legendary actions."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0o41dXrQ8c[/youtube]

FH continued, "I consider that the main cause of all these dictatorships is Mr Khatami After [the election] he moved too fast and by doing so he exposed the game plan of the reformists and Khamenei became alert to the fact that if he does not react swiftly, things will get our of hand".

FH stated, "These protests must continue so that they [the Ahmadinejad and Khamenei factions] understand that the people will not countenance such horrific fraudulent behavior."

FH continued to attack Khatami for his incompetence in dealing with the hardliners allowing them to hijack the previous elections and criticized the reformers for not gathering behind the Rafsanjani Banner, "If all reformists had supported Hashemi things would have been different".

FH concluded the interview by defending her family against Iranian state media allegations, asserting that "they have no evidence against us", and informing the interviewers that the Rafsanjani family is suing Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for defamation of character.