Friday
Jul172009
The Latest from Iran (17 July): Compromise or Challenge?
Friday, July 17, 2009 at 23:00
2200 GMT: More new video from today:
1915 GMT: Infighting amongst the hardliners? From a contact: Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidential pick Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has been criticized by the hardliner MP Mohammad Taghi Rahbar. Rahbar, who has personal ties with Khamenei, has stated that "many ayatollahs" and "AN supportors" are "extremely concerned with this choice".
1700 GMT: onlymehdi features a picture which appears to show Karroubi after he was 'roughed up' by plainclothes officers:
1615 GMT: Saham News, the official news site of Mehdi Karroubi, confirms confrontations between riot police and protesters around Tehran University today. It reports that the crowd jeered and booed an IRIB crew who tried to shoot footage, and that at around 4pm local police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.
1610 GMT: From an EA source: "In an attempt to placate the student population, Hojattoleslam Abu-Rorabi the deputy head of parliament during the closing ceremonies of the fourteenth university student olympiad in Mathematics and Chemistry alluded to the events that had occurred in Tehran University Dormitories and vowed "to resolve these problems soon". Abu-Torabi stated that Parliament with the help of university officials " is in the process of finding solutions for this huge problem" and "is trying to effect the release of some of those students that are in trouble" and "those who have confessed to their crimes will still be treated with Islamic kindness"." [Link: Persian / English]
1605 GMT: Reports say that Mehdi Karroubi was attacked by plainclothes secret service members today. [English translation] This is also reported in the Guardian's blog.
1600 GMT: A reader sends us this article on Parleman News, containing a series of photos from inside today's prayers.
1425 GMT: The Twitter account of journalism site Demotix says a strike is planned for Tuesday.
1400 GMT: The Lede carries an account from an Iranian-American reader who witnessed bleeding protesters and the use of tear gas outside prayers today. It also links to a YouTube account with a number of videos of what it says are protesters today.
1340 GMT: onlymehdi carries this picture of an extremely low-key appearance by Mir-Hossein Mousavi at Friday prayers, originally published here:
1330 GMT: Update on the video below. There are two chants: "We are not the people of Kufeh, that abandoned Hossein!" Kufeh is an historical Shia city in Iraq, whose population betrayed the third imam of the Shia Hossein (while also being a play on Mousavi's first name, Mir-Hossein). The second chant is, as reported, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!". [Thanks Mazdak and M.R.]
1155 GMT: Video of Mousavi supporters outside Tehran University. We believe they are chanting, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!" Can anyone translate?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]
Another lower quality video can be viewed here.
1130 GMT: Press TV's unsurprising headline on Friday prayers: "Iran's Rafsanjani urges national unity".
1105 GMT: Some confusion over Mousavi's attendance at Rafsanjani's address. An EA source does not think he was there, however both AP and Reuters report that he was. It is possible that Mousavi was in attendance, but not in the front row- this would be significant in itself.
1030 GMT: A video which is said to show Mousavi supporters at today's sermon has been posted to Facebook. (You may need to be logged in to Facebook to see it- we'll keep an eye out for alternatives.)
1025 GMT: An interesting reading: "Rafsanjani said he 'consulted' some members of the Assembly of Experts. May be an indirect warning to Khamenei."
And another Rafsanjani middle-ground statement, albeit one that will be read (I think) as a slap at the regime: "All of us, people and the government, should act within the law."
1020 GMT: A contact reports that IRIB may have brought down the volume of Rafsanjani's speech to cloak pro-Mousavi chants coming from the crowd. Mousavi was not present in the VIP area before or during Rafsanjani's speech, and neither Mousavi or Khatami appear to have been in the front rows. VIPs present included: Emami Kashani, Mahmoud Doai, Hassan Rowhani Mehdi Karroubi, Mohsen Rezai, Majid Ansari, Mohammad Reza Aref, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Said Mortazavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar.
1015 GMT: We have located an English translation of Rafsanjani's address, via the excellent NiteOwl.
1005 GMT: More evidence of Rafsanjani's sympathetic stand with protests while not breaking with regime: "Those suffered or mourning should be sympathized with."
1000 GMT: BBC Persian is reporting that police are dispersing protesters in areas surrounding the prayer site.
0955 GMT: A clear point of substance from Rafsanjani (and one fulfilling our morning projection): release the detainees.
0945 GMT: "Basij chanting in support of Khamenei, yet Rafsanjani keeps thanking them as though they are chanting for him"
Initial reading is that Rafsanjani is making a very careful but clear push for "legitimacy", implicitly criticising Government but trying to contain the scope of the challenge: "If there's no Islam we'll be lost. If there's no republic there is no action and no Islam.
0935 GMT: The speech so far: Rafsanjani has made a pointed reference to the pious life of the 7th Imam, Jafar Sadigh, explaining how he defied censorship to promote Islam. Anyone who wishes to make an analogy to present times may do so.
More directly, Rafsanjani (unlilke the Iranian Government and the Supreme Leader) has criticised China for its suppression of Uighur Muslims. For the first time in Iran, cries of "Death to China" are being heard, though Rafsanjani is urging the crowd to be moderate in its criticisms.
0930 GMT: Even at a distance (in this case, a field in eastern Britain), the excitement over Rafsanjani's address can be felt. Basiji are reported to be shouting, but it is also claimed that --- in a prayer service --- people are whistling and chanting for Rafsanjani and the "Green Wave".
Despite the interest, however, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is apparently not carrying the service live. If true, this might be a first for state media.
0920 GMT: Fars reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has unveiled his new cabinet. [link to English translation]
0915 GMT: Some overnight news from an EA contact. According to the pro-Mousavi website Mowj-e-sabz, there were protests in other parts of Mashad while Ahmadinejad was giving his speech. Eyewitnesses spoke of a sizeable security presence, including riot poice and Ansar Hezbollah members, who suppressed booing from protesters and arrested ten.
Mowj-e-sabz also reports that Ahmadinejad was snubbed by Ayatollah Vaez Tabasi, who did not officially welcome him or accompanying him during his visit to the shrine of Imam Reza. This is believed to be the first time in 30 years that the Ayatollah has withheld such courtesies from a sitting president.
0645 GMT: A side story of interest and possible significance. Yesterday it was announced that the head of Iran's nuclear programme had resigned three weeks ago. Later in the day Wikileaks reported that it had received a document outlining an accident at the Iranian nuclear plant being developed at Natanz.
Late last night access to Wikileaks was blocked in Iran.
0530 GMT: So It Begins. As Iran waits for Friday prayers, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, reports are coming in that crowds have been gathering at Enqelab and Vali-e Asr Streets near Tehran University. Heavy security, including basiji militia, is also reported.
This is an important occasion where expectation is not matched by knowledge. As we have been analysing all week, Rafsanjani is a master politician, at least behind the scenes. Before he speaks today, he will have calculated the position and strength of every major player (including himself) and the effect that each of his courses of speech and action might have.
My tendency, given Rafsanjani's priority not only for survival but to extend his power within the system, is that he will use religious rhetoric to call for reconciliation. That can be read by Government supporters as an acceptance of the Supreme Leader's authority and President Ahmadinejad's election, but it can also be read as a re-assertion that the concerns of protesters are legitimate and must be met, not only by a reversal of detentions but also changes in electoral law and a separation of Presidential politics (the Cabinet) and oversight (the Guardian Council).
Rafsanjani will hope that the Supreme Leader will move back from direct involvement in politics (and signs are that this is occurring) and the Revolutionary Guard's influence will be checked. This will give him more space for his own assertions of power within the system.
I could be far wrong, however. Rafsanjani has the capacity to surprise, as he did with his backing of Ayatollah Khamenei to become Supreme Leader in 1989, and if he thinks the moment is right for either 1) an assertion of faith in the status quo or 2) endorsement of the opposition, he will do so.
At this moment, I would be looking for Rafsanjani's possible endorsement, given subtly but clearly, of the political front envisaged by Mir Hossein Mousavi. That would not overturn the election but would open the prospect of a broad base for a "reform" within acceptable (for Rafsanjani) limits.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]
1915 GMT: Infighting amongst the hardliners? From a contact: Ahmadinejad's Vice Presidential pick Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has been criticized by the hardliner MP Mohammad Taghi Rahbar. Rahbar, who has personal ties with Khamenei, has stated that "many ayatollahs" and "AN supportors" are "extremely concerned with this choice".
1700 GMT: onlymehdi features a picture which appears to show Karroubi after he was 'roughed up' by plainclothes officers:
1615 GMT: Saham News, the official news site of Mehdi Karroubi, confirms confrontations between riot police and protesters around Tehran University today. It reports that the crowd jeered and booed an IRIB crew who tried to shoot footage, and that at around 4pm local police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.
1610 GMT: From an EA source: "In an attempt to placate the student population, Hojattoleslam Abu-Rorabi the deputy head of parliament during the closing ceremonies of the fourteenth university student olympiad in Mathematics and Chemistry alluded to the events that had occurred in Tehran University Dormitories and vowed "to resolve these problems soon". Abu-Torabi stated that Parliament with the help of university officials " is in the process of finding solutions for this huge problem" and "is trying to effect the release of some of those students that are in trouble" and "those who have confessed to their crimes will still be treated with Islamic kindness"." [Link: Persian / English]
1605 GMT: Reports say that Mehdi Karroubi was attacked by plainclothes secret service members today. [English translation] This is also reported in the Guardian's blog.
1600 GMT: A reader sends us this article on Parleman News, containing a series of photos from inside today's prayers.
1425 GMT: The Twitter account of journalism site Demotix says a strike is planned for Tuesday.
1400 GMT: The Lede carries an account from an Iranian-American reader who witnessed bleeding protesters and the use of tear gas outside prayers today. It also links to a YouTube account with a number of videos of what it says are protesters today.
1340 GMT: onlymehdi carries this picture of an extremely low-key appearance by Mir-Hossein Mousavi at Friday prayers, originally published here:
1330 GMT: Update on the video below. There are two chants: "We are not the people of Kufeh, that abandoned Hossein!" Kufeh is an historical Shia city in Iraq, whose population betrayed the third imam of the Shia Hossein (while also being a play on Mousavi's first name, Mir-Hossein). The second chant is, as reported, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!". [Thanks Mazdak and M.R.]
1155 GMT: Video of Mousavi supporters outside Tehran University. We believe they are chanting, "Russia! Shame on you! Leave my country alone!" Can anyone translate?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azIIeWIWHBo[/youtube]
Another lower quality video can be viewed here.
1130 GMT: Press TV's unsurprising headline on Friday prayers: "Iran's Rafsanjani urges national unity".
1105 GMT: Some confusion over Mousavi's attendance at Rafsanjani's address. An EA source does not think he was there, however both AP and Reuters report that he was. It is possible that Mousavi was in attendance, but not in the front row- this would be significant in itself.
1030 GMT: A video which is said to show Mousavi supporters at today's sermon has been posted to Facebook. (You may need to be logged in to Facebook to see it- we'll keep an eye out for alternatives.)
1025 GMT: An interesting reading: "Rafsanjani said he 'consulted' some members of the Assembly of Experts. May be an indirect warning to Khamenei."
And another Rafsanjani middle-ground statement, albeit one that will be read (I think) as a slap at the regime: "All of us, people and the government, should act within the law."
1020 GMT: A contact reports that IRIB may have brought down the volume of Rafsanjani's speech to cloak pro-Mousavi chants coming from the crowd. Mousavi was not present in the VIP area before or during Rafsanjani's speech, and neither Mousavi or Khatami appear to have been in the front rows. VIPs present included: Emami Kashani, Mahmoud Doai, Hassan Rowhani Mehdi Karroubi, Mohsen Rezai, Majid Ansari, Mohammad Reza Aref, Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, Said Mortazavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar.
1015 GMT: We have located an English translation of Rafsanjani's address, via the excellent NiteOwl.
1005 GMT: More evidence of Rafsanjani's sympathetic stand with protests while not breaking with regime: "Those suffered or mourning should be sympathized with."
1000 GMT: BBC Persian is reporting that police are dispersing protesters in areas surrounding the prayer site.
0955 GMT: A clear point of substance from Rafsanjani (and one fulfilling our morning projection): release the detainees.
0945 GMT: "Basij chanting in support of Khamenei, yet Rafsanjani keeps thanking them as though they are chanting for him"
Initial reading is that Rafsanjani is making a very careful but clear push for "legitimacy", implicitly criticising Government but trying to contain the scope of the challenge: "If there's no Islam we'll be lost. If there's no republic there is no action and no Islam.
0935 GMT: The speech so far: Rafsanjani has made a pointed reference to the pious life of the 7th Imam, Jafar Sadigh, explaining how he defied censorship to promote Islam. Anyone who wishes to make an analogy to present times may do so.
More directly, Rafsanjani (unlilke the Iranian Government and the Supreme Leader) has criticised China for its suppression of Uighur Muslims. For the first time in Iran, cries of "Death to China" are being heard, though Rafsanjani is urging the crowd to be moderate in its criticisms.
0930 GMT: Even at a distance (in this case, a field in eastern Britain), the excitement over Rafsanjani's address can be felt. Basiji are reported to be shouting, but it is also claimed that --- in a prayer service --- people are whistling and chanting for Rafsanjani and the "Green Wave".
Despite the interest, however, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is apparently not carrying the service live. If true, this might be a first for state media.
0920 GMT: Fars reports that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has unveiled his new cabinet. [link to English translation]
0915 GMT: Some overnight news from an EA contact. According to the pro-Mousavi website Mowj-e-sabz, there were protests in other parts of Mashad while Ahmadinejad was giving his speech. Eyewitnesses spoke of a sizeable security presence, including riot poice and Ansar Hezbollah members, who suppressed booing from protesters and arrested ten.
Mowj-e-sabz also reports that Ahmadinejad was snubbed by Ayatollah Vaez Tabasi, who did not officially welcome him or accompanying him during his visit to the shrine of Imam Reza. This is believed to be the first time in 30 years that the Ayatollah has withheld such courtesies from a sitting president.
0645 GMT: A side story of interest and possible significance. Yesterday it was announced that the head of Iran's nuclear programme had resigned three weeks ago. Later in the day Wikileaks reported that it had received a document outlining an accident at the Iranian nuclear plant being developed at Natanz.
Late last night access to Wikileaks was blocked in Iran.
0530 GMT: So It Begins. As Iran waits for Friday prayers, to be led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, reports are coming in that crowds have been gathering at Enqelab and Vali-e Asr Streets near Tehran University. Heavy security, including basiji militia, is also reported.
This is an important occasion where expectation is not matched by knowledge. As we have been analysing all week, Rafsanjani is a master politician, at least behind the scenes. Before he speaks today, he will have calculated the position and strength of every major player (including himself) and the effect that each of his courses of speech and action might have.
My tendency, given Rafsanjani's priority not only for survival but to extend his power within the system, is that he will use religious rhetoric to call for reconciliation. That can be read by Government supporters as an acceptance of the Supreme Leader's authority and President Ahmadinejad's election, but it can also be read as a re-assertion that the concerns of protesters are legitimate and must be met, not only by a reversal of detentions but also changes in electoral law and a separation of Presidential politics (the Cabinet) and oversight (the Guardian Council).
Rafsanjani will hope that the Supreme Leader will move back from direct involvement in politics (and signs are that this is occurring) and the Revolutionary Guard's influence will be checked. This will give him more space for his own assertions of power within the system.
I could be far wrong, however. Rafsanjani has the capacity to surprise, as he did with his backing of Ayatollah Khamenei to become Supreme Leader in 1989, and if he thinks the moment is right for either 1) an assertion of faith in the status quo or 2) endorsement of the opposition, he will do so.
At this moment, I would be looking for Rafsanjani's possible endorsement, given subtly but clearly, of the political front envisaged by Mir Hossein Mousavi. That would not overturn the election but would open the prospect of a broad base for a "reform" within acceptable (for Rafsanjani) limits.