Tuesday
Jul142009
Beyond the Election: Talking Turkey to Iran?
Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 6:11
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface
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Colette Mazzucelli, who has written for Enduring America and our partner website Libertas, has a challenging article (co-written with Sebnam Udum) in Atlantic Community on the next steps regarding Tehran in the international community: "UN Security Council members and Germany must turn to Turkey to successfully negotiate with Iran."
As Presidents Obama and Medvedev met in Moscow to agree in reductions on their strategic nuclear arsenal, events inside Iran continued to evolve. An increasing segment of the Iranian population worries about the disappearance of "semi-democracy" in favor of totalitarian rule. Influential clerics have indicated their lack of support for the results of the June 12 elections, which led to a second term for the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In the weeks after the election, cell phone images and Twitter accounts of a brutal government crackdown on the reform movement were uploaded to the Internet. Billions of people around the world continue to witness a regime, and the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, losing the legitimacy established with the Islamic Revolution three decades ago.
It is too soon to know the ultimate outcome of these events, which may take years to play out in domestic politics. The transatlantic allies must remain proactive in nuclear diplomacy within the P5+1. There must be a readiness to engage Iran with a unified negotiating line should the leadership in Tehran decide to respond to the package on the table. President Obama is prudent to expect a signal from the Iranians by September as to their interest, or lack thereof, for serious engagement. Iran shows no sign of halting its nuclear aspirations as time passes.
Even though the ball is now in Iran's court, the transatlantic allies should not play a waiting game. There is much work to do particularly in the bilateral talks US diplomats conduct with Russia and China. The Obama Administration's seriousness about non-proliferation with the Russians demonstrates leadership by the power of example. E3 diplomacy with Russian and Chinese counterparts must also aim to unify negotiating positions vis-à-vis Iran. This is complicated during an election year for the Germans, who have significant economic relations with Iran. The accent must be on a package that highlights Iran's inherent right to a civilian nuclear program with a nuclear-fuel-cycle capability of its own under intensive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) control and verification.
There is another player to which the transatlantic allies must now increasingly turn in the overall relationship with Iran after the events of June 12: Turkey. The absence of conflict between Iran and Turkey is due to the rough strategic balance between the two countries despite mutual threat perceptions from their respective political regimes. Turkey is concerned about Iran's missile and nuclear programs. The Turkish leadership defines threat as a combination of motivations and capabilities, which is why maintaining good neighborly relations with Tehran is important for Ankara.
Read rest of article....
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Colette Mazzucelli, who has written for Enduring America and our partner website Libertas, has a challenging article (co-written with Sebnam Udum) in Atlantic Community on the next steps regarding Tehran in the international community: "UN Security Council members and Germany must turn to Turkey to successfully negotiate with Iran."Why the West Should Talk Turkey with Iran
As Presidents Obama and Medvedev met in Moscow to agree in reductions on their strategic nuclear arsenal, events inside Iran continued to evolve. An increasing segment of the Iranian population worries about the disappearance of "semi-democracy" in favor of totalitarian rule. Influential clerics have indicated their lack of support for the results of the June 12 elections, which led to a second term for the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
In the weeks after the election, cell phone images and Twitter accounts of a brutal government crackdown on the reform movement were uploaded to the Internet. Billions of people around the world continue to witness a regime, and the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, losing the legitimacy established with the Islamic Revolution three decades ago.
It is too soon to know the ultimate outcome of these events, which may take years to play out in domestic politics. The transatlantic allies must remain proactive in nuclear diplomacy within the P5+1. There must be a readiness to engage Iran with a unified negotiating line should the leadership in Tehran decide to respond to the package on the table. President Obama is prudent to expect a signal from the Iranians by September as to their interest, or lack thereof, for serious engagement. Iran shows no sign of halting its nuclear aspirations as time passes.
Even though the ball is now in Iran's court, the transatlantic allies should not play a waiting game. There is much work to do particularly in the bilateral talks US diplomats conduct with Russia and China. The Obama Administration's seriousness about non-proliferation with the Russians demonstrates leadership by the power of example. E3 diplomacy with Russian and Chinese counterparts must also aim to unify negotiating positions vis-à-vis Iran. This is complicated during an election year for the Germans, who have significant economic relations with Iran. The accent must be on a package that highlights Iran's inherent right to a civilian nuclear program with a nuclear-fuel-cycle capability of its own under intensive International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) control and verification.
There is another player to which the transatlantic allies must now increasingly turn in the overall relationship with Iran after the events of June 12: Turkey. The absence of conflict between Iran and Turkey is due to the rough strategic balance between the two countries despite mutual threat perceptions from their respective political regimes. Turkey is concerned about Iran's missile and nuclear programs. The Turkish leadership defines threat as a combination of motivations and capabilities, which is why maintaining good neighborly relations with Tehran is important for Ankara.
Read rest of article....