Iran: A Paintball Embargo?

Maryam from Keeping the Change notes a possible US link to the Iran's Government suppression of protests:

"Green" may be the color we now associate with the movement for reform in Iran, but it appears that the power of color is also not lost on government forces working to resist these calls for change. According to an eyewitness report sent to us by one of our readers, the Iranian police are using "paint balls" against demonstrating crowds. This eyewitness, who was in attendance at Rafsanjani's Friday sermon yesterday at Tehran University, claims that during demonstrations outside the University following Rafsanjani's speech, police forces launched paint balls at protestors. The account is confirmed by a piece published in Al-Arabiya newspaper yesterday, reporting that the Iranian police used paint balls and tear gas to disperse demonstrators, particularly around the Interior Ministry building.

Our eyewitness' report, however, suggests that the paint balls may not be used simply to disperse the crowds, but rather that a more nefarious strategy may also lie behind the paint ball - tactic. According to this person, the paint balls are used to single out protestors, who the police believe should be arrested.

Full story.

Booom: U.S. Agrees to Israeli strike on Iran in return for a Palestinian state?

On Thursday, The Times reported that Western and Israeli diplomats are in talks concerning international support for an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran, in return for concessions on a two-state solution.

The passage of two Sa'ar 5-class Israeli missile-class Navy ships through the Suez Canal on Tuesday was offered as the proof of seriousness of the Israeli position. The deployment of these two warships in the Red Sea followed the passage of a Dolphin-class submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike through the international waterway.

“This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These manoeuvres are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats” an Israeli defense official said.



Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, said that his government explicitly allowed passage of Israeli vessels, and an Israeli admiral said that the drills were “run regularly with the full co-operation of the Egyptians.” This, alongside the claim that Saudi Arabia would allow Israeli jets to use its air space in any strike against Iran, could be seen as another indication of the high possibility of an Israeli raid- one which would have the backing of pro-Israeli Arab states who oppose a nuclear-armed Iran.

A British diplomat has said that, if agreed, an Israeli strike would be possible “within a year.”

Tel Aviv may be using the “existential threat” of Tehran in order to gain extra time which could bring onboard more conciliatory Palestinian leaders, pushed by the Obama administration. Or it may be seriously focusing on a pre-emptive strike which could, again, give it extra time in the peace process, even if a war between Israel and Iran would cause turmoil in the entire region. However, in the second case, Israel would be losing 'the other', which would shatter geo-political, geo-cultural and geo-economical institutions and could cause an identity crisis.

For me, a Washington-led Western camp would go no further than imposing tougher sanctions against Tehran. As I mentioned above, the war would not be limited to two states and would change the dynamics of the entire region. Therefore, the first scenario sounds more logical: an Israeli bluff calling for the acceptance of Israeli demands from the Palestinian Authority. The Obama administration cannot leave Israel on its own. Pushing Palestinians toward the negotiating table along with extra tangible efforts to bring other Arab states, especially Syria, into a wider negotiation platform seems more logical.

On the other hand, news from the other side of the story comes in, and Hamas completes the last piece of the puzzle. Hamas is enjoying the new conjuncture being shaped by the State of Israel. The first Qassam rocket since June 13th was fired into the western Negev Thursday evening by militants in the Gaza Strip. Hamas wants to show that it should not be overlooked in the negotiation process.

Iran: Tehran's Immediate Response to the G8 Summit

After the warning of the G8 Summit to Tehran, Iran response came quickly. On Saturday, Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister, said that they had not received "a new message" and would propose a package "containing Iran's stances on political, security and international issues." Mottaki said: "We have not received any new message from the G8. But based on the news we have received, they had different views on different issues which did not lead to a unanimous agreement in some areas."

Mottaki is correct, in the sense that, except from a September deadline for negotiations, there were nothing new in the G8 declaration. However, despite Mottaki's declaration, "The package can be a good basis for talks with the West," there was nothing new in Iran's response, either. According to Al-Jazeera, it will not be beyond a new version of a May 2008 list of discussion points stating "the creation of an international consortium" to enrich uranium on its own soil as a way of defusing the tense standoff over its nuclear programme.

Britain's Foreign Office and the White House have avoided giving immediate responses so far. Instead, the "5+1" (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) await Tehran's next step.

Blackout in Iran

Fintan Dunne's latest post looks at a suspected 'Blackout' protest during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's television address on Tuesday evening:

The speech was also accompanied by widespread electricity blackouts said claims by online protesters using Twitter. The protesters had earlier pre-arranged a call for Iranians to plug in heavy power load household devices such as dryers, irons and toasters at 9:45pm local time, as Ahmadinejad's speech began.

Online Twitter feeds claimed blackouts were achieved in East Tehran, Sari, Tabriz, Isfehan, Rodehen, Saghez, Lavasan, Ahvaz, Khoramshahr, Dezfol, Jahrom, Khomini Shahr, Shahin Shar, Folad Shahr, Kashan and some of Rasht.

We've been discussing the possibility of protests in Iran moving away from large, highly visible demonstrations towards smaller, more subtle disobedience. Could this be an example?

Click here for EA's latest from Iran