Iran: Playing the "National Security" Card

The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a concise, effective analysis of how the Iranian Government is trying to use threats to "national security" both to hold off and to denigrate the opposition movement:

The Issue of "National Security:" Government Spin in Two Press TV Reports

Two reports from the Government-sponsored Press TV on Tuesday highlighted the Regime's continuing efforts at recasting the current events inside Iran as matters of "national security." Press TV reported that Iranian police have clashed [for 7 hours] with unidentified gunmen in the city of Urumieh in the Province of Western Azerbaijan. No further information, images, or other tangible evidence is provided on this event. Press TV also reported that the Majlis' Foreign Policy and National Security Commission will present a report to Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament, examining the post-June 12th events "in an effort to gain more experience [on such incidents] and prevent similar cases in the future."

These attempts at invoking "national security" as cover and justification for its crackdown on demonstrators and other dissidents may, in part, reflect the Government's awareness of a phenomenon analyzed and written about by several prominent Iran scholars, including Professor Homa Katouzian, for decades. Namely, Iranian history suggests that a reflexive aversion to instability and insecurity exists within Iranian society. According to this theory, Iranians have historically preferred rulership by a strong and autocratic leader to prolonged, nation-wide unrest. Whether or not this theory is in fact relevant to the current climate inside Iran, these Press TV reports are reminiscent of numerous other "incidents" that have occurred over the last weeks and together give the impression that the Government is intentionally manufacturing news to support its claims of a "national security" threat inside the country.

Amongst the most clearly incredible of these reports was the alleged "suicide bombing" at the Ayatollah Khomeini Shrine, on the outskirts of Tehran, on June 20, 2009, one of the bloodiest days of protests since the June 12th elections.

Read rest of article....

Palestine: Was There a Plot to Kill Yassir Arafat?

Last week, Farouk al-Kaddoumi (pictured), a senior Palestine Liberation Organization leader, told al-Jazeera that Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas played a role in Yassir Arafat’s death in 2004. He said that he had protocols from a 2004 meeting between Israeli, American and PA representatives that clearly indicated a plan to poison Arafat. He added that former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Mohammed Dahlan, the former Palestinian security chief in Gaza, were involved in the plot.

The first reaction to the story came last Wednesday. Mahmoud Abbas suspended the operations of al-Jazeera in the West Bank. The Information Ministry stated that the station’s operations were halted until a court ruled on the case. Walid Al Omary, Al-Jazeera’s bureau chief in Jerusalem, said: “We are sorry about this decision, which we consider a violation of freedom of expression and freedom of the press in this country.”

On Thursday, Abbas rejected the accusations and said that "Kaddoumi claims to be in possession of five-year-old documents that prove (his allegations), so why did he not reveal them immediately?" Abbas added that the "lie" was aimed at torpedoing the sixth Fatah Party General Congress, scheduled to convene August 4. He continued, "He (Kaddoumi) knows full well that this information is false; he has released it to undermine the convention, but we are continuing with the preparations."

While the Palestinian Authority was having problems with the Qatar-based station, the political risks of Abbas's decision increased with the entry of Hamas into the discussion. Fawzi Barhoum, a Hamas spokesman, accused the West Bank government of trying to silence the media and “cover up what is going on in the West Bank". Thus, the Arafat conspiracy theory was converted into a current political manoeuvre: Hamas is the "democratic" party seeking truth while its rival engages in "tyranny".

The Latest from Iran (21 July): No Lull in the Cycle of Protest

The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

NEW Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21 July)
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (17 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED

2200 GMT: Press TV jumps in on the debate over the choice of Iran's 1st Vice President, and it is siding with the Supreme Leader rather than President Ahmadinejad:

A senior Iranian parliamentarian says the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has advised the president to reverse his decision in appointing Esfandyar Rahim-Masha'i as his top deputy.

"Without any delay, the removal or acceptance of Masha'i's resignation must be announced by the president," Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, the first Majlis [Parliament] vice speaker, told the Iranian Students News Agency on Tuesday....The removal of Rahim-Masha'i from key positions and presidential deputies is the collective decision of the political establishment.”

1930 GMT: No confirmed reports on whether the "power overload" protest scheduled for 9 p.m. local time (1630 GMT) succeeded in causing blackouts, although there were unconfirmed claims that parts of Tehran, Karaj, and Qazvin lost power.

1910 GMT: The pro-Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz confirms that, in addition to Sunday's demonstrations in Tehran and Shiraz, there were sizable protests in Tabriz.

1900 GMT: A source expands on our post about Hashemi Rafsanjani's sharp response today to Ayatollah Khamenei:

Rafsanjani's website has recently posted a part of his memoirs that can be interpreted as a retort to Khameini's not so well concealed threats. The key section of this posting is as follows:

"An individual must not be intimidated by anything in this world. Whenever an individual faces a test it is insufficient to only have good intentions and unacceptable to limit oneself to empty slogans and claims. Each generation faces a test and challenge and the greatest test a man faces is when because of his love to god he is asked to sacrifice his spouse, his children and his capital. One must be brave."

Rafsanjani's website concludes the preceding paragraph with the following commentary: "The ironclad strength of these words indicate that the young Rafsanjani in his "struggle for the rights of people", had been well schooled by the great Khomeini on how to move beyond fear."

1845  GMT: We've posted the first video from today's protests in a separate entry.

1745 GMT: A Showdown between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei? Yes, you read that right. A source confirms our report (1600 GMT) that the Supreme Leader has ordered the President to force the resignation of his Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. However, an update claims that Ahmadinejad has insisted in an interview that the VP will remain in office: "Rahim-Mashai is a great supporter of the Islamic Regime, is a great believer in the principle of supreme leadership, leads a simple life and has served the public with distinction. He has been chosen as a VP and will continue to serve."

1740 GMT: I apologise for this morning's inaccurate headline, "A Lull in the Cycle of Protest". It has now been changed.

1730 GMT: BBC English has decided that maybe, just maybe, it should be paying attention to Iran again. I am listening to a report from Jon Leyne, who had been evicted from the country, has been brought back to say, "The pendulum could be swinging back to the opposition." He adds that he has heard from a source inside Iran that "defiance is growing". He concludes, "The system has been badly damaged by this....This is a country in the throes of change." The BBC website is also reporting that "hundreds, even thousands" of people protested.

1700 GMT: Reports, as with previous protests, that cellphone service cut in central Tehran. Claims that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting facilities surrounded by special forces as crowds chant slogans.

1600 GMT: According to Parleman News, the Supreme Leader ordered President Ahmadinejad to remove his choice as Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who is also the father of Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law: “Without any delay, the dismissal order or Mashaei’s resignation must be announced by the President.” (NIAC Insight has an English summary.)

1550 GMT: Al Arabiya, citing "a witness", is now headlining, "Iran police clash with protesters", with hundreds at 7 Tir Square and dozens detained: "The witness said the protesters were chanting slogans against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the government, including 'Ahmadinejad -- resign, resign' and 'Death to the dictator'.

1510 GMT: Reports that protests are building in Tehran, particularly near 7 Tir Square. Reuters is first "mainstream" agency to report clashes with security forces.

1440 GMT: Reports of clashes between demonstrators and security forces at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran and Cinema Saadi Cross in Shiraz. People have moved to 7 Tir Square Square, but claims of attacks with tear gas as security forces hold the squares.

1430 GMT: The text of the letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani by two pro-Mousavi advisors --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- with a "fundamental framework of the proposed solution" has now been posted on the Internet.

The letter was sent on 20 June but only released on Sunday (see our updates on 19 July for a summary).

1400 GMT: The Ultimate Enemy - More on the denunciation of the Khatami call for referendum by Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari (see 1130 GMT). Shariatmadari has claimed the proposal has the "same instructions as Michael Ledeen, read the CIA" have proposed for regime change in Tehran. Ledeen, a rabid critic of the Iranian system who pressed for military action to overthrow it in 2003, is based at the American Enterprise Institute.

1130 GMT: Holding the Line. "Conservative" newspapers have denounced the call by former President Khatami and the Assocation of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government. Hossein Shariatmadari, appointed by the Supreme Leader as the managing director of Kayhan, echoed Ayatollah Khamenei's "foreign intervention" theme, "They have suggested yet another Western plot to raise havoc by proposing a referendum. The main idea of this plan is to trigger tension. Their proposal is illegal and impractical." An editorial in Khabar asserted, "Such controversial proposals, despite their appeal to protestors... challenge the basis of the system. A referendum would create challenges which our country cannot harbour and it would incite unrest instead of building confidence."

1010 GMT: Reports that today's march, commemorating a 1952 rally for the Government of Mohammad Mossadegh, will take place at 3 p.m. local time (1030 GMT) from Rezaie Square to Mossadegh's tomb.

1000 GMT: The chief of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has accused the opposition of "inciting sedition" and declared his force would act firmly to uphold the law. "Some people who failed to realize their election goal go on spreading doubt in different ways and then turn that ... into inciting sedition," Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam said. "This group of individuals voice the slogan of law abidance but they themselves do not observe the law ... they are sheer liars."

0945 GMT: The Battle is On, Round Two. No more questions, as in the first weeks of the post-election conflict, as to whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will work only behind the scenes. The former President has taken on the Supreme Leader's Monday speech, writing in a quote from his memoirs, "There is a test for every generation. People's issues are the most important test for this one."

0645 GMT: More on Mousavi meeting with detainees' families (see 0500 GMT). A valued source sends in these quotes from the opposition leader:

[Connecting the arrested with foreign governments] is a defensive tactic employed by individuals that that are threatened by [the idea] of people being free. This [fictititious] connection only serves as a pretext and justification, but everyone knows what these arrests are really about. Our people know that these arrested individuals have gentle and impressive personalities that have served this establishment for many years and it would be impossible to believe that any of them will sell National Interests to foreigners.....[These allegations] are an insult to the public's vote and their intelligence and will have its unsavory consequences.

The Iranian people saw corruption in the election process and sponteneously rallied to defend their rights. This wave of indignation will not be quenched by thousands or even ten thousands of arrests....We are stating that what has happened is against the law and against the ideals of the revolution and against the constitution and against the will of the people.

A government that establishes itself by hook or crook will be a weak government. It will be a government that will give major concessions to foreign governments, because it lacks popular support. Returning people's trust [to government] has an extremely high priority for us, because a loss of this trust may have serious consequences for our country."

[Upholding] individual freedoms of the people has a can ensure the security of society in a much more positive way than security crackdowns with wooden and metal clubs, in fact these crackdowns compromise the security of our country. Our people are much more mature [to deserve] a regression to pre-revolutionary unacceptable methods.

0635 GMT: Keeping It in the Family. President Ahmadinejad may have been rebuffed in his attempt to name the father of his daughter-in-law as a Vice President, but Mowj-e-sabz claims that Ahmadinejad's son-in-law Mehdi Khorshidi will be the head Presidential Secretary, and the husband of Ahmadinejad's sister-in-law will be the head of the Iranian national youth organization.

0625 GMT: An intriguing follow-up reports on Sunday's demonstrations in Shiraz (see video in our updates for 19 July) in the Ehsan ampitheatre. The website Mowj-e-sabz claims that this rally, "a gathering of the election campaign managers of Mousavi and Karroubi", is the "first official gathering of the reformists after the elections and it also is the first gathering of the reformers that has a permit".

Given that the Government has not given a permit for demonstration in Tehran since 15 June, apart from the Beheshti memorial at Qoba mosque on 28 June, this rally was likely to have received permission from provincial officials. So who are they and will they now face retribution from the regime?

0600 GMT: There are reports that protestors will turn out on the streets today, linking the demonstration to one on the same day in 1952 in support of the nationalist Government of Mohammad Mossadegh.

0500 GMT: The crisis in Iran has now "settled", if that word can be used, into a rhythm in which a prominent show of opposition is followed by a regime reaction and then a few days of quiet. Friday's address by Hashemi Rafsanjani brought a response from the Supreme Leader yesterday, and this morning both sides are taking a step back to assess the position. The one scheduled event for today is the "power overload" protest for 9 p.m. local time, with demonstrators hoping to black out the national news by switching on electrical appliances.

Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises one notable development, the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi with families of detainees. The opposition leader is using these occasions not only to show support for the detained and their relatives but also to indicate that protest has not ebbed and to set out political positions. Yesterday he said the Green Movement was peaceful but was ready to make sacrifices, declaring, “The Iranian Nation had matured and that the use of pre-1979 tactics wouldn’t be enough to silence it....The Nation had been reborn and was going to defend its achievements.”

Mousavi asked the government to ensure freedom of speech and condemned ongoing arrests. And, in a rebuttal to the line of the Supreme Leader, he said it was “an insult to the Iranian Nation to suggest that foreigners had orchestrated the post-election protests in Iran".

Mousavi's Facebook page also continues to be an active location to challenge the Government. This morning it has countered an appearance by the Iranian Foreign Minister, declaring, "WE ARE THE MEDIA!" It is featuring the call by the Association of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government (see yesterday's updates), and it is highlighting a video, which allegedly shows a lack of public turnout for President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad on Friday (see separate entry).

LATEST Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (16 July)

The Latest from Iran (21 July): The Lull in the Cycle of Protest

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEEDUPDATE 22 July: Another small video twist: this new footage popped up today, claiming to show a protest against Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePTj_w6qrfU[/youtube]

This video surfaced last night. Activists claim it shows the lack of support for President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad, which came the day before Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of prayers in Tehran.

Given the limited quality of the film, and given possibilities for manipulation, we are cautious about the conclusions, but Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign is now featuring this to question the legimitacy of the Government.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6biC1n7GfDE[/youtube]

A reader (see comments below) has pointed us to evidence that Ahmadinejad's speech was heard by a large audience. The footage is from Press TV, who said in a story on the speech, "Ahmadinejad criticizes opposition to Iran vote", that the President spoke "to thousands of people":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5C7HwtNByQ[/youtube]

Promise Delayed: Obama to Miss Guantanamo Closure Deadline?

The news is unsurprising, but it is still depressing. On Monday, a story in the Los Angeles Times (see below) raised concerns that President Obama will not fulfil his headline pledge to close the US detention facility at Guantanamo Bay within a year of his inauguration. Quoting Administration officials, the report by Greg Miller and David Savage said, "Two reports that were supposed to be delivered to the president by Wednesday -- one on how to overhaul the nation's detention policy and another on interrogation policy -- would not be ready."

The officials said that the 22 January 2010 deadline for resolution of the cases of the 240 detainees would be met. "They had made substantial progress in reviewing the cases...and had decided that dozens of detainees were eligible for transfer to other countries or were suitable for trial." However, the task force considering detention has been given a six-month extension (in other words, 22 January) for its report, and the task force on interrogation has been given a two-month extension.

Translation: while the officials claimed that "substantially more than 50 cases" of detainees who could be transferred overseas had been processed, as well as a "significant number" of others who would face trial in U.S. federal courts or before a revamped system of military commissions, there is still a set of detainees who cannot be tried because difficulties in the assembly and presentation of evidence (complicated by an appalling lack of organisation, and even loss, of records during the Bush years) preclude a trial and because they are considered too dangerous for release.

That means indefinite detention. And, what's more, the criticisms of politicians, media, and private lobbies will probably rule out bringing any of those difficult cases into the US prison system.

So Camp X-Ray stays open.

Obama to miss Guantanamo deadlines

GREG MILLER and DAVID SAVAGE

Reporting from Washington -- Obama administration officials said Monday they would not meet self-imposed deadlines for deciding what to do with scores of detainees too dangerous to release from the prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

The delays, involving those who cannot be tried, raise questions about whether the White House can close the prison by January, as President Obama pledged when he took office.

Although officials said the deadline still would be met, a task force studying the issue was expected to deliver its recommendations by Jan. 22 -- exactly one year after Obama issued his executive order to close the prison within a year.

The officials said they had made substantial progress in reviewing the cases of the approximately 240 prisoners at the facility, and had decided that dozens of detainees were eligible for transfer to other countries or were suitable for trial.

But the officials acknowledged that two reports that were supposed to be delivered to the president by Wednesday -- one on how to overhaul the nation's detention policy and another on interrogation policy -- would not be ready.
Officials emphasized the complexity of the issues and their desire to find solutions that would be acceptable to Congress but could withstand a court challenge.

"We want to get this right and not have another multiple years of uncertainty," one senior administration official said in a background briefing with reporters at the White House. The official spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the deliberations.

Civil liberties groups expressed concern Monday that the White House was planning to preserve the ability to hold some prisoners indefinitely.

"The Obama administration must not slip into the same legal swamp that engulfed the Bush administration with its failed Guantanamo policies," said Anthony D. Romero, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union. "A promise deferred could soon become a promise broken."

Administration officials said they had not retreated from their January deadline to close the facility. "To meet the requirement of the executive order -- that is our goal," one official said.

But the administration has given a six-month extension to the task force examining detention policy. The delay means the recommendations for devising a system for the indefinite detention of those considered too dangerous to release but impossible to try may not be delivered until Jan. 22.

Officials declined to say how many Guantanamo prisoners might fall into the indefinite detention category, but said no decisions on those cases had been reached.

In contrast, a second administration official said that a review team had resolved "substantially more than 50 cases" of detainees who could be transferred overseas, as well as a "significant number" of others who would face trial in U.S. federal courts or before a revamped system of military commissions.

The White House has granted a two-month extension to a separate task force that Obama created to recommend changes to the nation's interrogation policy.

Officials have said that the panel will probably suggest creating teams of expert interrogators -- drawing on personnel from the CIA, FBI and other agencies -- to question senior Al Qaeda members and other high-value suspects.

During the George W. Bush years, Guantanamo became an international symbol for America's harsh handling of Muslim prisoners. But the Obama administration, like its predecessor, has been unable to devise a single set of legal rules for detaining and prosecuting the men held there.

Under military law, the government could hold foreign fighters and suspected terrorists under the rules of war. But the Obama administration's lawyers have been reluctant to follow the lead of Bush by relying on the power of the commander in chief to hold military prisoners indefinitely without charges. The Supreme Court also may have foreclosed that possibility last year when it ruled that Guantanamo prisoners had a right to challenge their detention in federal courts.

Criminal law sharply limits who can be held and under what circumstances. For example, prosecutors would be required to release a suspect if they had no witnesses against him and no other evidence of his guilt that would be admissible in court.

But the Guantanamo prisoners include accused terrorists allegedly involved in attacks on Americans, including the bombing of the warship Cole. In some cases, the only witnesses were either subjected to harsh interrogations or are in prison abroad. None could testify at a trial.