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Monday
Jul202009

The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

NEW Iran Video: Cleric Tabatabai Criticises Ahmadinejad on State TV (20 July)
NEW Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
LATEST Iran Video: The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)
Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?

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KARROUBI

1945 GMT: Dr Mehdi Khazali, manager of the publication Hayan, has been released from detention. Khazali, the son of Grand Ayatollah Abulghasem Khazali, a member of the Assembly of Experts, is a strident critic of President Ahmadinejad, whom has accused of having Jewish roots.

1915 GMT: Speaking on a programme on state television, an Iranian cleric, Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai, criticised President Ahmadinejad's televised post-election speech on 13 June as "inflammatory".


1645 GMT: Following up this morning's story on possible challenges to the Supreme Leader, we've posted a summary and analysis of the Supreme Leader's address to officials and citizens this afternoon. Press TV's summary leaves no doubt about Khamenei's target: "The remarks come several days after renewed protests emerged on Friday when influential cleric and politician Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani led prayers attended by hundreds of thousands of people at Tehran University."

1535 GMT: Where is Bijan Khajehpour? At The Huffington Post, the prominent US-based analyst Trita Parsi highlights the case of the economist who was arrested on arrival at a Tehran airport on 27 June. Because Khajehpour has taught at American as well as Iranian universities and advised companies in Europe, he may prove an "exceptional" detainee for the Western media, despite the fears of his family that "they fear the world will forget about him because they never knew his face and never heard his story".

1520 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has just posted an account of his treatment by security forces as he arrived at Tehran University for Friday prayers (pictured). The English translation from Keeping the Change:

When the crowds saw me driving past, they came towards me and followed me as I continued the drive to Tehran University. As we came closer to the University I saw that government forces, armed and seated on motocycles, had gathered and were spraying tear gas into the surrounding area. I knew that if the crowds of people following me proceeded further there would be a violent clash with the state's security forces, just as there had been at the Ghoba Mosque on the anniversary of the martydom of Ayatollah Beheshti [June 28, 2009]. For this reason, I signaled to the crowd to disperse and indicated to them that I would proceed to the Friday prayers alone. Even though I usually drive through the University to the prayer hall, on this occassion I chose to leave the car. Other than members of the government's security team, I did not see anyone else there. As soon as I got out of the car, these men began chanting "Death to the Opponents of Velayate Faghi [the Iranian system of ultimate clerical authority]", which caught me off guard. Though at this time there were no other witnesses around, as everyone has seen, the different pictures proving that the security forces attacked me and knocked the turban off my head have been published. So how do they [the government] think they can hide the things they have done to the people or that they can blame these incidents on others? All the things they have done have taken place before the eyes of the people.

1500 GMT: Overloading the System. For some time, we have been hearing of plans for a co-ordinated protest tomorrow to "black out" Tehran by overloading the electrical grid. The tactic was used with some effect to curb President Ahmadinejad's television address two weeks ago; the proposal is to make a symbolic protest at 9 p.m. tomorrow at the start of the national news. Activists have been posting details on which appliances consume the most energy.

A reader points out why this call to action goes beyond similar proposals: it has been endorsed on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site.

1230 GMT:  The Touchstone of Detentions. More evidence that, while the protest movement may not be settled on its aims, it can draw unity from the regime's refusal to free those arrested in post-election conflict. Mosharekat website reports a statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi that protests will not end while the Government detains demonstrators and opposition leaders:
Isn't it an insult to 40 million voters ... linking detainees to foreign countries? ... Our dear ones in prison have no access to lawyers and are under pressure to make confessions ... With detentions the issue (row) will not be resolved ... Let people freely express their protests and ideas.

0930 GMT: Via IranRevolution, a list of 158 "Revolution Martyrs", including 46 names.

0920 GMT: The formation of Mousavi's Political Front is entering the tug-of war phase. Legally, the formation of a political front does not require official permission from the Interior Ministry; however, the reformist site Mardomak reports that the ministry is asserting that the formation of all parties, societies and fronts must have a permit from the Interior Ministry.

Mardomak also reports that the provincial governor of Tehran as said that "releasing the detainees is against the law".

0915 GMT: Confirming news that broke on Sunday: Hossein Rasam, the last local staffer of the British Embassy held by the Iranian government, was released from custody after he posted bail.

0730 GMT: The Association of Combatant Clergy, associated with Mohammad Khatami, have amplified the call for a referendum on the post-election legimitacy of the Government: "Considering the fact that even a minimum of trust towards the election process is non-existent, .......[we] demand a free referendum so that all of Iranian society can express their opinions about  the post election events." The statement adds an unsubtle slap at the Guardian Council, insisting the referendum be supervised by "impartial observers that are trusted by the public, not bodies that are responsible for this crisis".

0545 GMT: Sunday saw more political manoeuvres, both symbolic and very real, as the opposition tried to assess how far it could press its challenge.

One symbolic and real victory came with the announcement that the father of President Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, had declined his appointment as Vice-President. (Well, possibly. Mainstream media have not caught up but, as we updated last night, Rahim-Mashai wrote on his website that he had not resigned. At a minimum, the episode points to confusion in the President's ranks.)

However, the deputy to the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guards tried to hold the line, claiming that many prominent politicians have been "engaged in treacherous intrigue". He included former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Despite the warning, Rafsanjani received headline coverage in Iranian media for his pilgrimage to the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashaad. Mousavi, following Karroubi, issued a statement expressing condolences to Armenia and to the Armenian-Iranian community over last week's air crash that killed 168 people.

At the practical level, Khatami called for a national referendum on the conduct of the 12 June election. Even more intriguing is Khatami's meeting with Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie --- no information about this discussion is available yet.
Monday
Jul202009

LATEST Iran Video: Cleric Tabatabai Criticises Ahmadinejad on State TV (20 July)

The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?
LATEST Iran Video: The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)

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[myspace]http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=60783409[/myspace]
Monday
Jul202009

Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds 

Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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KHAMENEI4A reader gives us an invaluable update, via Parleman News, on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's address, commemorating the festival of Aid-e-Mabaas and the divine revelation to the Prophet Mohammad. The summary prompts two questions, in light of Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday address, the persistent Green Movement, and the latest challenges to the Supreme Leader outlined in our post this morning: 1) can Khamenei really rely on the "foreign menace" to maintain the support of most of the Iranian population, especially if that means a political showdown with a Rafsanjani or a Mousavi?; 2) how far can the call to "morality" take precedence over the specific concerns over the Iranian system during and after the system?

My sense (as an outsider) is that the first ploy is more and more ineffective with many Iranians. The second is more important, asking Iran's population to make a commitment to religious observation over their views on the country's political system.

Ayatollah Khamenei, stating that "rationality was the first issue that the prophet implemented in society", invoked morality to support the legitimacy of the Iranian system: "The propagation of moral values in society is like a clear breeze that .....prevents people from being covetousness, ignorant, personally vindictive, suspicious towards one another."

As has been the case since his prayer address on 19 June, the initial target for the Supreme Leader was foreign influences and his main assurance was that Iranians would reject these influences to support their clerical and political leadership:
Arrogant powers consider the Islamic republic of Iran to be an impediment to their global ill-omened plans especially in the Middle East....The people of Iran have demonstrated that in the last 30 years it is a loyal and self sacrificing populace and these characteristics did manifest themselves in the post election events....Amongst Iranians different groups have different viewpoints regarding social issues and all express their opinions, however ....Whenever the people feel that a element is organizing an attack to the establishment, they will distance themselves [from that element] even if that element is chanting popular slogans....Even during a great calm and stable movement one should not ignore the possibility of intrigues of enemies...although it is obvious that all these events have been orchestrated by the enemies and their media, they still have the gall to claim that they are not interfering [in Iranian internal politics]....Foreign media want to support these rioting anarchists by portraying them as 'the people', but the [Iranian] people will ostracize these rioters.

Then, however, Khamenei went beyond the foreign menace to square up to the challenge of internal opposition:
Anyone with any position and credentials that they have, if they intend to direct society to insecurity is a hated individual....The elite must recognize that if any of their words, interpretations or actions compromise the security of society, they will be stepping against the pathway of the Iranian people...They must be careful of what they say...and they must know that they are facing a great test, failing this test is not merely a failing grade it will cause their fall.

Khamenei turn returned to his opening call to rationality as morality and adherence to religion: "People should not delude themselves into thinking that playing politics is rationality. Rationality is not playing politics but worshiping God."
Monday
Jul202009

LATEST Iran Video: The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)

Transcript: Rafsanjani’s Sermon
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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The audio is in Farsi of course, but we have also posted the English translation of the speech. There are seven parts to the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSjDC1SrheE&feature=related[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtmjuVrGjsg&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x71PMdXlz9A&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZZ-ylU8Sug&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u47C_y9QDyo&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxEbpNzsdl0&feature=related[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUNm75hMd7s&feature=related[/youtube]
Monday
Jul202009

Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?

Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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KHAMENEI3As regular readers of EA know, we're keeping a watch out for signs that would take protest beyond demonstrations beyond the handling of the results to a challenge of the Supreme Leader.

More food for thought on Sunday. The website Mowjcamp, associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi, has claimed that "a few high-ranking prominent clergymen of Qom are applying pressure upon Khamenei in order to induce him to accept the protests of the public and clergy and abandon his support of Ahmadinejad". This site also claims that Ayatollah Javadi Amoli and Ayatollah Amini intend to have a meeting with Khamenei in the near future.

The Ayatollahs, members of a council of clergy convened by Hashemi Rafsanjani to solve the election crisis, will be acting officially to convey the opinions of the council to Khamenei. Mowjcamp also asserts, that other high-ranking clergymen have met with the Supreme Leader and have criticized him severely. For example  Ayatollah Kharazi has proclaimed, "The Supreme Leader must pay the blood price of the dead."

Citing an "authentic source", the website also refers to the story, which we noted yesterday, of an acrimonious debate between Rafsanjani and Khamenei in which Rafsanjani refused the Supreme Leader's request that he participate in Ahmadinejad's inauguration.