Mapping US Public Diplomacy: What if Most of Us are "American"?

On his blog Wandren PD, our colleague Ali Fisher, who is producing breakthrough work on public diplomacy and networks, evaluates a recent survey of a "global" audience for a US Government initiative. Noting that the majority of responses came from within the US, he asks, "What does it mean if the demographic of two-thirds of your audience is not your target demographic?"

The Latest from Iran (29 July): Challenges Outside and Inside the Government

The Latest from Iran (30 July): Memorial Day

More than “Velvet Revolution”: The Battle Within Iran’s Intelligence Ministry
Iran: The "40th Day" Memorial and the Inauguration
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi Speech, Nighttime Protests (27-29 July)
The Latest from Iran (28 July): The Regime Crumbles

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2105 GMT: Still no confirmation of the release of Saeed Hajjarian from detention, which was supposed to take place today. Gooya.com, reporting of behalf of the "Green Wave", says the news should not be trusted.

2025 GMT: Another Arrest. Now it is Khatami advisor Shayesteh Amiri who has been arrested.

2015 GMT: The Latest from the Police. It's not just the Ministry of Intelligence that is being shaken up (see separate story). Three high-ranking officers --- the head of preventive forces, the head of the traffic section, and the head of airport police --- have been replaced.

Meanwhile, the overall head of the security forces, General Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, is adjusting his position. Hours after the Prosecutor General insisted that officers show restraint, Ahmadi-Moghaddam said, "The security forces try to install calm and justice in society.....however no type of provocation must cause the security officers to step out of the law....Some members of the security forces have overreacted."

Ahmadi Moghaddam added, "In response to the complaints of 440 of our countrymen we have compensated 197 of 300 people that have sustained damages....The total amount of compensation paid was $50,000." (Correspondent Mani thinks the General is being a bit of a cheapskate, since the cost of a  car in Iran starts from $8000.)

2005 GMT: Press TV Coverage Meter - Mousavi Up, Mahmoud Down. There is an overload of indicators of the shifting view of state media in this story from Press TV's website, "Amid growing dissension among Iran's ruling elite over the president's conduct, former presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi says the post-vote crisis is the product of undervaluing the will of the people."

Who is the troublemaker now?

2000 GMT: Don't Give Up the Story Now. Press TV may have stopped treating the murder of Neda Agha Soltan as a foreign plot (0720 GMT), but others are not ready to quit. A Revolutionary Guard commander has told an audience that the "accident was completely planned".

1905 GMT: Mahmoud, We Want Our Vote Back. An editorial in Ya Lassarat newspaper, associated with Ansar al Hezbollah activists, has demanded, "Mr. Ahmadinejad, apologize to the nation!” The editorial continued,

We must tell you, Mr. Ahmadinejad, that our criteria in voting for you was your indisputable allegiance to the Leadership. But now we see that you, in the past week, have done things that raise questions about your allegiance to the Leader. The appointment of [First Vice President] Rahim Masha’i, the removal of the ministers, leaves doubts about allegiance to the Leader whose only fault was reminding you to obey the order of the Leadership. Your hesitation in carrying out the Leader’s orders has led us to begin to assume that your love for a person such as Masha’i is far greater than your love for the Leader. Of course we hope that we are mistaken.

We would like you to be aware that in the event you repeat, persist with such behavior, we will have no choice but to ask you to return our votes.

1900 GMT: Some Come Out, Some Go In. Further illustrating that the release of 140 detainees is a limited concession, Iranian authorities have reportedly arrested Saeed Shariati, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

1800 GMT: Press TV's English website reports from Iranian security services: "An underground network providing foreign media outlets with photos and footage of the post-election unrest has been identified and arrested in Iran." No further details of the network, the foreign outlets, or the footage is given.

1755 GMT: Iranian media continue to report that the mother of Neda Agha Soltan will also be at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery tomorrow.

1745 GMT: Reports that Emad Behavar, leader of the youth wing of the Freedom Party and a prominent member of the pro-Khatami Group 88, has been released from detention.

1730 GMT: Latest News on Thursday's Events (and What It Means). Parleman News has repeated the news from Etemade Melli that Mousavi and Karroubi will attend the 4 p.m. ceremony in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan. This is also the information on Ghalam News, the official site for news from Mousavi.

Our correspondent Mani interprets all today's news and sorts out what has happened and is likely to happen:

I do not think that Mousavi would make a joint official statement and then undermine it by bringing up the business of a further ceremony at the Grand Mosala at 6 p.m.

Personally I think that the Behesht-e-Zahra plan makes sense. I think that it may be possible that some behind-thscenes negotiations have happened between the different factions. The "conservative" faction, both the pro- and anti-Ahmadinejad members, have made concessions: they have released prisoners, they have started to apologize, members of the judiciary have talked about the rights of individuals, etc. (more or less carrying out the suggestions of Rafsanjani). It is reasonable to expect that Mousavi-Khatami-Karroubi have made concessions by changing the venue from the Grand Mosala, allowing the interior ministry to save face, and putting the ceremonies at the cemetery,which personalises the ceremonies and lowers the political tension and pressure). It is possible that some supporters of Mousavi will go to the Mosala but I doubt that Mousavi himself will be anywhere but at the place where he has officially said that he is attending.

1530 GMT: Mousavi Facebook page posted this message 25 minutes ago: "URGENT: Program tommorow (Thursday) fixed: 6:00 p.m. "Mosalla" in Tehran(+4:30 GMT). Before: Burial site of the Martyrs. After: Martyrs home visit. You are the Media!"

1455 GMT: Etemade Melli restates the information given by the offices of Karroubi and Mousavi on Facebook, "We will play our respects to the Martyrs of June 20th and their families at their site of rest....These ceremonies will occur at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan, tomorrow Thursday at plot number 257 in the cemetery Behesht-e-Zahra".

1445 GMT: An Iranian blogger is claiming, via a source, that a secret communiqué from the Supreme Leader's office to all intelligence and security offices has insisted that there be no forced used against demonstrators tomorrow "even if there are harsh slogans against the regime and the Government".

1410 GMT: Activists are trying to confirm plans for tomorrow. Mousavi Facebook page says, "Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi are going to visit Burial site of the Martyrs of 20th June, in the [Beheshteh Zahra] cemetery tommorow (Thursday) 16:00 o' clock (GMT +4:30)." Norooz News is reporting that the 6 p.m. memorial at the Grand Mosala is being replaced by this gathering. We are trying to confirm.

1155 GMT: First Concession, then Stick. Less than a day after the Government announced the release of 140 detainees, the Islamic Republic News Agency reports that trials of about 20 protesters will begin Sunday on charges of belonging to terrorist groups, carrying weapons and grenades, and "sending images to the media of the enemy". Ominously, in an apparent reference to "reformists" politicians who are still detained (see 0925 GMT), IRNA adds, "Those who ordered the postelection unrest" would be put on trial later.

1150 GMT: We've just posted a separate analysis on the "coup" within the Ministry of Intelligence in which more than 20 officials, including two Vice Ministers, were allegedly dismissed.

0940 GMT: Bringing Security Forces Within the Law? The Prosecutor General of Iran, Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, addressing the special units of the security forces, has stated, "The security forces are obligated to be in control of their behavior." After thanking the security forces for their recent efforts, Najafabadi said

The public must feel that the police are serving them and are not against them. The psychological well being of the public depends upon the discipline and law abidding behavior of the police...no department or section should consider themselves beyond the law....In an Islamic establishment security is not attained via brutal suppression but by the requirements of freedom and human dignity and no justification exists for assaulting human dignity, and the rights of people even the accused must not be ignored....Both law enforcement and the judiciary are not separate from the people but are there to serve the people. This must be shown in deeds so that the psychological security of the public is obtained.

0925 GMT: Amidst the news of the imminent release of Saeed Hajjarian, questions remain over the fate of other detained politicians. Press TV's website reported last night:

When asked about the fate of former deputy interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh and former deputy speaker of the Parliament Behzad Nabavi, [Farhad Tajari, deputy head of the Parliament Judicial Commission] said that they were in detention for major security charges. The parliamentarian, however, voiced hope that the two veteran political figures would be released on bail as per an earlier order by the Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahroudi.

0920 GMT: Reuters is now reporting, from Iranian state media, that Saeed Hajjarian will be released from detention today.

0900 GMT: We're splitting off our first update today, "The Memorial and the Inauguration", as a separate analysis.

0750 GMT: Apparently We're Wrong. Perhaps President Ahmadinejad read our morning update (0615 GMT) describing "battles within" his Government. He has denounced "media speculation" and the "imaginary scenarios" of an argument in last Wednesday's Cabinet meeting and the subsequent attempted dismissal of four ministers. Ahmadinejad's office adds the reminder that spreading "false news" is "illegal".

0740 GMT: Another Important Memorial Service. The memorial was held for Mohsen Roohulamini, who died in detention after his arrest on 9 July, in the house of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei. (Roohulamini's father was Rezaei's campaign manager.)

Those who paid respects included the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Hassan Abutorabi-Fard; Ayatollah Rasti, a member of the "conservative" Society of Teachers at Qom; Admiral Shamkhani, the Minister of Defense durring the Khatami Government; and General Hossein Alaie, one of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guard durring the Khatami Goverrnment.

0730 GMT: The "conservative" Jahan News reports that politician Saeed Hajjarian has been freed from detention. He will continue to be interrogated in his home.

0720 GMT: Press TV Changes Its Message. On its website last night, Press TV reported the statement of the Political Director-General of the Ministry of Interior that ""no permit has been issued for gathering or rallying for any individual or any political group" on Thursday.

That statement has been overtaken by the claim of the Green Movement that it carried no official authority. What is more interesting is the framing of the story. The headine recognises "post-vote victims". Even more striking is the picture and caption used for the story, "Neda Aqa-Soltan, who was shot dead in Tehran's post-vote protests, became an international icon in the heat of post-election developments."

The acknowledgement, even elevation, of Neda's death is in sharp contrast to Press TV's coverage in late June, when it first ignored the story and then highlighted claims that Neda had been killed by foreign agents as part of a conspiracy to discredit the Iranian Government.

0710 GMT: The funeral of Sefollah Daad, a prominent Iranian film director who has died of cancer, was due to take place this morning. There were unconfirmed reports that members of the Green Movement, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, would be present.

Latest Iran Video: Mousavi Speech, Nighttime Protests (27-29 July)

The Latest from Iran (29 July): The Memorial and the Inauguration

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29 July: Nighttime Protests in Tehran (Part 1 of 2)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIjxZdt2EKc&feature=channel[/youtube]

29 July: Nighttime Protests in Tehran (Part 2 of 2)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiZoSR3U5_k[/youtube]

27 July: Mir Hossein Mousavi "The Protests Will Go On" (Part 1 of 3)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHydRyK1pfU[/youtube]

27 July: Mir Hossein Mousavi "The Protests Will Go On" (Part 2 of 3)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KkSG4oW7R4&feature=channel[/youtube]

27 July: Mir Hossein Mousavi "The Protests Will Go On" (Part 2 of 3)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCZzU3PxhJM&feature=channel[/youtube]

More than "Velvet Revolution": The Battle Within Iran's Intelligence Ministry

The Latest from Iran (29 July): Challenges Outside and Inside the Government

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In a week filled with confusions, intrigues, and confrontations within the Ahmadinejad Government, this may be the most extraordinary story of all.

On Monday afternoon, the pro-Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz announced, "Coup in the Ministry of Intelligence". While public attention was focused on the President's firing of his Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, there was much more happening below the headlines. Two Deputy Ministers and a number of experts --- Mowj-e-Sabz claimed more than 20 --- had been "forced into retirement".

The cause? Ministry officials had been told to compile a report, based on files and interviews of detainees, on whether the quest for a "velvet revolution" by outsiders was responsible for post-election conflict. Their investigations produced the answer: No. There was no proof that "foreign" elements had instigated the protests as part of a plan for regime change.

It was an answer that did not satisfy President Ahmadinejad. He dismissed the Vice Ministers of Intelligence and of Counter-Intelligence. According to Mowj-e-Sabz and other press reports, established a parallel service, "Tehran Intelligence", led by Hojatoleslam Ahmad Salek and Hojatoleslam Hossein Ta'eb, both of whom are affiliated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Was this dispute over the "velvet revolution", rather than the Cabinet argument over the First Vice President, the real reason for Minister of Intelligence Ejeie's dismissal? Does the replacement of Ministry officials by activists close to the Revolutionary Guard, combined by Ahmadinejad's assertion that the Ministry reports to him rather than the Supreme Leader, constitute a "coup" by the President and the IRGC against their own Government?

I'm not sure I would go so far as to answer "Yes". But I do think that the irony is that any notion of an outside "velvet revolution" has been overtaken by an inside bureaucratic war. How far this war spreads could define the next phase of the post-election challenge to the Iranian system.

Iran: The "40th Day" Memorial and the Inauguration

The Latest from Iran (29 July): Challenges Outside and Inside the Government

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The political scene in Iran is always shifting, but an hour last night brought dramatic evidence of the trends, not only in Opposition v. Government but also within the shaky Ahmadinejad Administration.

The news emerged, first through Mir Hossein Mousavi's websites, then through the Iranian press, that the "40th Day" memorial would proceed on Thursday at the Grand Mosala in Tehran. For the activists, this was not a case of defying the authorities; rather, they claimed that there had been no denial of permission. There was only a "low-level" Ministry of Interior official, making a personal statement, trying to stop the gathering.

As with the last high-profile organised rally, the march to Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday prayers, the challenge is very clever.

Any attempt by the Iranian Government to ban or disrupt the memorial will be upheld as a restriction on Shia Muslims carrying out religious duties in their remembrance of the dead. So what may happen is that Iranian security forces, "maintaining order", do not confront those in the Mosala but try to prevent people getting there. That too has its risks: attention will then be given not only to the memorial (which is designed not only to be political but, on the surface, apolitical with readings from the Koran) but to a series of scattered confrontations around the city.

Those confrontations will produce video; it has been notable that on both 17 July, the day of Rafsanjani's prayers, and 21 July, the last occasion of scattered rallies throughout the capital, far more footage has gotten out of Iran. And if those confrontations produced more arrests, the regime only magnifies the current problem it faces over the issue of detentions.

Since 20 June, when dozens died in demonstrations, there seems to be a pattern to keeping opposition not only alive but visible. Eight days later, there was the limited but still notable gathering of thousands at Qoba mosque. It was then 11 days to the 18 Tir rallies, and another eight days to the Friday prayer march. Tomorrow's memorial comes nine days after the 21 July rallies. President Ahmadinejad thus may want to take note: his inauguration is a week from now, offering a logical occasion for another public show of opposition.

In the same hour last night, another series of revelations emerged about the battle within the Government. The clerical opposition grew throughout the day, with the Assembly of Experts now fragmented into a series of pro-Ahmadinejad and anti-Ahmadinejad (and pro- and anti-Rafsanjani) groups, but in the evening, it was the political criticism of the President that took over. While the majority of Parliament have come out strongly for the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad now faces the hostility of "Principlists" and even some "conservatives".

That hostility has had an effect beyond the symbolic. Parliamentary pressure appears to have contributed to the Supreme Leader's decision to close one prison and the Judiciary's order to release 140 detainees. It will be interesting to see if that pressure continues --- there are still hundreds, including prominent politicians, held and the question of an enquiry into the deaths of detainees (remembering that one victim was the son of a high-profile "conservative" activist) is unanswered so far.

Meanwhile, the Ahmadinejad Administration faces its own battles within. We'll post later on an extraordinary story of the convulsions within the Ministry of Intelligence, which have led to the departure of several high-ranking officials, and tales of a political war between the Revolutionary Guard and those who do not want to blame the post-election conflict on a "velvet revolution". The President's declaration yesterday that he, rather than the Supreme Leader, will supervise the Ministry only adds to the intrigue.

Inside the Cabinet, the President is living with three Ministers who he tried to fire. The furour over the First Vice President has overshadowed any political and economic programme --- Ahmadinejad's televised attempt a few weeks ago to set out his policies (and thus his authority) seems very distant.

A week before he is supposed to be inaugurated, "President Ahmadinejad" seems to be little more than a label. Some are paying more attention to the Green Movement, some to the leadership of the Supreme Leader, some to Hashemi Rafsanjani, some even to the notion of a de facto assertion of power by the Revolutionary Guard.

Forty days after the death of the 20 June demonstrators, who will be remembered tomorrow, this is no longer a single "Green Wave". Rather, there are waves crashing all round, outside and the Government. And, even if Ahmadinejad is swept away by the political undertow, there will be no return to still waters.