Latest Iran Video (27 July): The Nighttime Protest

The Latest from Iran (28 July): Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis


Nighttime Rooftop Protests in Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gETqHU_zsw&feature=channel[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovucHrJDI0E&feature=channel[/youtube]

Video and Transcript: Obama's Engagement with China (27 July)

The headlines may be on the crises and difficulties of engagement from Iran to the Middle East to North Korea, but the Obama Administration is pressing ahead, as an equal or greater priority, with engagement with India and China. Hillary Clinton's visit to Delhi last week and her co-written editorial with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in The Wall Street Journal, "A New Strategic and Economic Dialogue with China", was followed by President Obama's address on Monday to the first US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue:

President Obama Attends the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue from White House on Vimeo.

President Obama's remarks at the U.S./China Strategice and Economic Dialogue, July 27, 2009

UPDATED Mitchell in Syria: Obama's Big Push in the Middle East?

Non-Story of the Day: Israel, Iran, and “All Options on the Table”

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE (28 July, 0800 GMT): Well, it looks like the Obama Administration is more than serious about getting Syria to the negotiating table. Hours after we posted Josh Landis' caution that Damascus resented continued US sanctions, a White House spokesman said, " "Mitchell explained to President Assad that the U.S. would process all eligible applications for export licenses to Syria as quickly as possible", especially "those requests to export products related to information technology and telecommunication equipment and parts and components related to the safety of civil aviation."

However, there still remains a very big obstacle to resolution of the economic issues. The spokesman added that "there has been no change" to the general sanctions legislation against Syria, imposed in 2003: "Changes to U.S. sanctions would require close coordination and consultation with Congress."
---
The BBC breathlessly proclaimed this morning that, with President Obama's envoy George Mitchell visiting Syria, Egypt, and Israel and with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in Tel Aviv today, this was the Obama Administration's "big push" for a Middle Eastern settlement. A moment's reflection before such a dramatic statement might have been in order: Mitchell's two previous tours of the region have been "big pushes", there was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's "big push" in the spring, and of course there was the high-profile Obama speech in Cairo. All those big pushes have brought little movement so far.

Josh Landis, evaluating the first leg of Mitchell's tour in Damascus yesterday, gives further food for thought:

First analysis of the Mitchell Meeting

George Mitchell did not say what the United States expected from Syria, especially on Hamas, as he left his meeting with Syrian President Bashir al-Assad. Mitchell said, after the meeting, that restarting talks between Syria and Israel was a “near-term goal” for Washington. “If we are to succeed, we will need Arabs and Israelis alike to work with us to bring about comprehensive peace. We will welcome the full cooperation of the government of the Syrian Arab Republic in this historic endeavor,” he said to reporters. “I told President Assad that President Obama is determined to facilitate a truly comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace."

Mitchell’s brief is Israeli-Arab peace. The main sticking point in US-Syrian relations at this time,however, is the Iraq intelligence-sharing deal, the details of which seem to be concluded, but which Syria is not implementing. Some analysts suggest that Damascus is dragging its feet out of fear of al-Qaida, which might launch a terror campaign against Syria. I find this argument dubious. Damascus insists on US compliance on concerns it has been raising with Washington for some time. I do not know exactly what these concerns are other than having an ambassador appointed, ending the era of public demonization of Syria, and normalizing relations.

Speaking of normalizing relations, the Airbus export license on which Syria had hung it hopes of reviving Syria Air and launching Pearl Airlines was rejected last month. Because the US refuses to sell new Boeing planes to Syria and has put every impediment in the way of Syria purchasing spare parts to repair its aging fleet, Syria Air is all but grounded. To remedy this embarrassing situation, President Assad has sought to buy European planes, but it turns out that over 10% of these planes are manufactured in the US, permitting the US Treasury Department to refuse permission to the Europeans to sell them to Syria. This means that Obama can effectively close down the Syrian air industry, which he is doing. The embargo on planes and aviation parts is just one aspect of the US-imposed economic sanctions Syria believes Obama should end.

The US clearly has a pack of economic, military, and political cards to play. If, for example, the US demands Syria satisfy US concerns on an entire portfolio, such as intelligence sharing and Iraq, in exchange for normalizing one element of economic relations, such as aviation, Syria will have to hand over much of its foreign policy bag of tricks simply to purchase normal relations with the West. This is undoubtedly not an exchange rate Damascus likes.

Western diplomats are not sympathetic to Syrian complaints that they are being treated unfairly. “Syrians think they are the center of the World,” one non-American Western diplomat complained to me in June. I replied that most Syrian officials I know become indignant when Westerners reminded them that they are bit players on the world stage. They insist that they have “nafis tawiil,” or long breath, meaning that they will refuse deals on terms they consider humiliating or bad even if refusal costs them a heavy price.

To predict how negotiations may turn out is pointless. It is too early to say. We don’t know what sort of deal is shaping up in Damascus or where the stickiest points are. Syrian officials explain that US-Syrian relations have been dormant for eight years and suggest that it is quite natural that only a few months of dialogue cannot break down the great distrust and misunderstanding built up by the Bush years.

The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

The Latest from Iran (28 July): Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?

NEW Iran: English Text of Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi Letter to Grand Ayatollahs (25 July)
NEW Another View from Iran: Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN (26 July)
The Latest from Iran (26 July): Four Days to The Green Movement’s Next Wave

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2035 GMT: Bad Cop, Good Cop on Detentions. "Principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari presses the head of Iran's judiciary to give up the name of the killer of detainee Mohsen Roosul Amini (1945 GMT). President candidate Mohsen Rezaei, whose campaign manager was the father of Roosul Amini, praises the head of the judiciary: “I would like to express my gratitude toward Your Excellency for setting a one-week deadline for the determination of the fate of the prisoners of the unrest.”

“I hope that judiciary officials will carry out your orders as soon as possible and relieve the concerns of the families of the detainees.”

2005 GMT: Oops, Another Crack in the Cabinet. Associated Press has published the news we reported yesterday: an appeals court upheld the fraud conviction of Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian, a close ally of the President. Researcher Farzan Salimi claimed Mehrabian had stolen his idea for an "earthquake saferoom" in homes. The court ordered the registration of the design to be taken from Mehrabian and an associate and given to Salimi, but did not otherwise assign punishment. Salimi confirmed the ruling to The Associated Press.

So, since Ahmadinejad has just fired one Minister, will the conviction of another leave his Government vulnerable to a Parliamentary vote of confidence? Apparently not. Mohsen Koohkan, a prominent legislator, said Parliament will consider Mehrabian's conviction, but in the context of the next Government after Ahmadinejad's 5 August inauguration rather than the current one.

And there's some good news for the President. His name was also on the 2005 book that published the design for the "earthquake saferoom", but he escaped being named as a defendant.

1945 GMT: Calling the Bluff on Detainees. "Principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari, an increasingly vocal critic of the Government, has demanded that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Sharoudi, release the name of the interrogator that killed Mohsen Roohul Amini.

The declaration is not only a test of the Government's willingness to deal with the issue of detainee rights. It is an indication that the regime has been damaged amongst its own supporters by the case of Ruhol Amini, who was the son of a prominent "conservative" political activist.

1855 GMT: In a separate entry, we have published the English translation of Ayatollah Yousef Sanei's response to the Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi letter to the Grand Ayatollahs on detainees.

1830 GMT: Did Ali Larijani Save Ahmadinejad? Jam-e-Jam Online has claimed that, after Ahmadinejad finishing his "firing spree", dismissing four ministers, Larijani informed him that firing more than one minister would require a Parliamentary vote of confidence for the Government to resume operations. This forced Ahmadinejad to reinstate Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi and, presumably, never confirm the firings of the Ministers of Health and Labour.

1820 GMT: The conservative press is claiming that Hashemi Rafsanjani is boycotting Ahmadinejad's inauguration on 5 August.

1815 GMT: It has emerged that 205 "conservative" Members of Parliament signed an open letter to the Supreme Leader, re-stating their general support of his position and his specific actions over First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The letter was publicly read in parliament, while one Member of Parliament said another private letter was sent to the President: "In this letter we expressed our support for the GovernmentP but we also have asked the President to improve his behavior in a way that will facilitate rapid implementation of the Supreme Leader's comments and opinions".

The "reformists" refrained from signing this letter. One said, "[We] are of the opinion that critical letters will have a very little effect on Ahmadinejad's behavior, we doubt the efficacy of such letters and therefore have refrained from signing it."

1805 GMT: After yesterday's fun and games, the President has been quieter today, but there is one report mixing politics, amusement, and a bit of irony. Tabnak claims that Ali Kordan, the former Interior Minister, was asked to become the Inspector General of the Presidency, but that he rejected the post.

Kordan was forced to step down last year when he was inspected and found wanting: he had claimed, falsely, to have a Ph.D. from Oxford University.

1745 GMT: Another (Small) Concession. Just over two hours after we reported signs from the head of Iran's judiciary that there might be some movement regarding detainees, Press TV confirms Internet chatter of a token order by the Supreme Leader: "The head of Iran's National Security Council [Saeed Jalili] said Monday that Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei had demanded that [a "non-standard"] prison which did not measure up to the required standards to be shut down. "In the course of recent events, the Leader has ordered officials (to take measures), so that no one, God forbid, suffers injustice."

Jalili added, "Ayatollah Khamenei had insisted that officials were obliged to 'precisely' probe into incidents in which wrongdoings may have been committed against detainees."

1535 GMT: Old People Can't Drive and They Can't Run a Country. This summary of the Friday address of Hojjatoleslam Gholam-Reza Hassani, the leader is Urumiyeh, is offered without further comment:

Hassani thanked Security forces for restoring and maintaining calm throughout the country.

Hassani said that seniors should refrain from participating in activities they are incapable of doing properly. He went on to use driving as an example and opined that to prevent inflecting harm on themselves and others, seniors who cannot control their cars must stay off the road.

The senior West Azarbaijan cleric then noted the “desires of certain presidential candidates in their advanced age” and queried, “Those who do lack physical and mental capacity, why do they try to wreck havoc in the country? When you cannot even keep your ammameh (clerical hat) on your head and your dentures in your mouth how do you want to govern the country?”

NOTE 1: Attending Friday prayers in Tehran on 17 June, Mehdi Karroubi's ammameh was knocked off when he was jostled by security forces.

NOTE 2: The Supreme Leader turned 70 earlier this month.

1520 GMT: The Detentions Issue. In a clear sign that the opposition demands are having some effect, a spokesman for the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, said that a decision must come within a week on the fate of prisoners, and he indicated some prisoners should be freed. The spokesman, Ali Reza Jamshidi, said about 300 people were still detained. (English-language version of story)

1500 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. We referred in our first update today (0545 GMT) to the "valuable breathing space [offered by President Ahmadinejad's troubles] for the opposition as they plan the memorial and other political moves". Following up his statement with Medhi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and others to Grand Ayatollahs (see separate entry), Mir Hossein Mousavi has given a clear signal on his website about the importance of the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July: ""The pro-reform path will continue. The establishment should respect the constitution and let us to gather to commemorate our killed loved ones on Thursday."

(Far from incidentally, Reuters, which reported this news, still does not understand the significance of Thursday's gathering, failing to note that it is for those killed in demonstrations on 20 June.)

The Mousavi page also endorses the moves against pro-Government members of the Assembly of Experts, publishing Ayatollah Dastghaib's letter (0708 GMT).

1200 GMT: Today's "Really? No Kidding?" Headline. In The New York Times: "Ahmadinejad Seen as Increasingly Vulnerable Since Re-election".

0930 GMT: Reports that the Iranian actress Pegah Ahangarani has been arrested.

0755 GMT: A seven-member Parliamentary committee, "despite the explicit opposition of some institutions", has visited Evin and Rajayi Prisons this morning to assess the situation and condition of detainees.

0708 GMT: After Ayatollah Hareesi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that last week's letter --- issued in the name of the Assembly but signed by only 16 of the 86 Experts --- denouncing Hashemi Rafsanjani was invalid, Dastgheib has supported Rafsanjani in even stronger terms, publishing a scathing reply that seriously questions the motives and integrity of Rafsanjani's right wing critics:

Some people think that any support of Ayatollah Hashemi [Rafsanjani]'s speech is equivalent to a personal defense of Hashemi and a swipe at his enemies. As a matter of fact this is not the case, any reasonable listener will admire this speech and realize that [adherence to] its statements leads to a long term strengthening of the Islamic Republic....

You advise ethics and morality. [If you were sincere] it would have been moral if you had condemened all the instances that Islamic law was ignored during the televised presidential debates, or if you had condemned all the Anti-Islamic torture that goes on in state prisons, prisons that deliver dead bodies every day.

Be sure that if you treat people with sincerity they would treat the clerical class with the correct respect and deference.... Your policy of defamation, supression and accusations of heresy, treason, working against the establishment has repelled any reputable personality or society. Instead of this...it would be much better if you treat people with kindness, apologize for your behavior, free prisoners, by freeing them you are attending the demands of the majority.

0700 GMT: Untangling the Government mess. The Minister of Intelligence was fired. Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi, after Ahmadinejad tried to fire him but then pulled back, submitted a letter of resignation. However, Saffar-Harandi said that he would postpone the effective date of resignation "so that he can merely be used as a number [to prevent a vote of confidence] in the remaining eight days of Ahmadinejad's Government"

0545 GMT: More than 12 hours after news first appeared of the firing of Cabinet members, it is still unclear how far President Ahmadinejad has gone to remake his Government and how effective he will be. It appears that at least one Minister, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie (Intelligence), has been fired, but reports vary on whether a second Minister, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi (Culture), has been dismissed. Earlier reports of the firing of the Ministers of Health and Labour were never verified.

At this point, the best explanation for the confusion (although there is no way of knowing if it is true without the confirmation of Ahmadinejad) is that the President considered removing all four ministers, leading to stories of a mass firing, but then pulled back when he realised his Government would no longer be able to act without a Parliamentary vote of confidence.

After his defeat over the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has Ahmadinejad been able to salvage some authority? Equally important, has he been able to establish the legitimacy of his Government, a legitimacy in question ever since the election on 12 June? We're working on an analysis, which we hope to publish later today.

Ahmadinejad's troubles are a double-edged development for the opposition. The news has overshadowed the announcement of the next major show of protest, the "40th Day" memorial service on 30 July for those who died in demonstrations on 20 June. Many in the media appear to have missed the significance of the event. Although there will be no speeches, only readings from the Koran, the memorial will be a public sign that people will come out in large numbers to challenge the regime. (There is a parallel with the only other legal gathering allowed by the Government since 15 June, the memorial service 13 days later at Qoba Mosque for Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti. On that occasion, the opposition was in disarray and had little time or space to organise the demonstration. Still, thousands of people turned up.)

Our correspondent Mani summarises the practical and symbolic importance of the location for the event:

1) It was an prayer area that was designed when Mir Hossein Mousavi was Prime Minister in the late 1980s.
2) It is located in a highly accessible area of Tehran but not in downtown Tehran.
3) It can accommodate a huge number of people. If Mousavi and Karroubi are able to fill it (and personally I have no doubt than they can do so). they will show a strength in numbers that is an challenge that will make it difficult for the conservatives to respond. Given the contrast between the number of people participating in Rafsanjani's Friday prayers with the audience at the other Friday prayers, I doubt that the conservatives will be able to amass the same number of supporters.
4) It is also interesting that in the request it has been explicitly stated that no speeches and rallys will take place and only traditional Koran recitations will happen. I think this has been a stroke of genius. First, it will make it very hard for the Government to deny a orderly request to pay respects, which isItotally within the framework of islamic protocol. Second, Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are publicly avowing the islamic nature of their protest. Third, Mousavi and Karroubi by organizing this memorial service have constructed an orderly conduit for their supporters (especially the younger more hotheaded elements) to express their grief and frustration, preventing the possibility that this grief and frustration will be converted into a rage that would be uncontrollable by the organizers. This will help demoMousavi and Karroubi to demonstrate, calmly yet effectively, the level of societal support that exists for their movement in a controlled fashion.

Yet, if the President has taken the headlines with his Cabinet discussions, this also gives valuable breathing space for the opposition as they plan the memorial and other political moves. We are still awaiting, for example, the effects of Saturday's call by Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami to Grand Ayatollahs to intervene on behalf of detainees.

It is far from incidental that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, amidst the gathering news of Ahmadinejad's troubles, seized the opportunity to give a carefully-calibrated interview. His public support for the Supreme Leader, coupled with his continued references to the difficulties raised by the election, keep up pressure on the Government while protecting Rafsanjani from the charges --- levelled by his hard-line opponents in the Assembly of Experts --- that he is undermining Khamenei. Correspondent Mani sets out the position:

Behind all the polite talk Rafsanjani is sticking to his guns. If indeed " the Supreme Leader solves the current problems based on ... the solutions I [Rafsanjani] offered in the Friday prayer", a very weak and irrelevant Khamenei will be the result. What we must remember is that the opposition is protesting from within the system, so it is Khamenei's weakening not his elimination that they are seeking. One must remember that saving face is the underlying principle of all interactions between clerics.

On the clerical front, but almost lost in yesterday's drama, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili issued a public statement demanding that: 1) the rights of the detainees be respected; b) detainees who have not committed any crime be freed immediately; c) families who have lost members be compensated. The Ayatollah stated,

The recent regrettable events are incompatible with the dignity of Islamic Establishment....and have caused a great concern for all true supporters of the country and the Islamic Republic.....Unsubstantiated accusations and disrespect towards prominent national and religious figures will not only fail to pacify the country but will in fact feed the flames of the crisis.......I fear that prolonging the cuurent situation will both weaken the foundations of the establishment and the erode the trust of the people in the establishment and will lead to an exacerbation of the crisis.... I demand that all officials and influential individuals try to reverse the damage that has already been done and try to rebuild the confidence of the people in this establishment.

The Ayatollah concluded with an apparent hint to Rafsanjani, and possibly Khatami-Karroubi-Mousavi, as he hoped "that the prudence of capable people that have already served this establishment for a long time will provide a solution for rescuing the country from this painfully complicated situation and that the experience gained through these events will provide a blueprint for a much better methodolgy for administering the issues of society".

Non-Story of the Day: Israel, Iran, and "All Options on the Table"

Mitchell in Syria: Obama’s Big Push in the Middle East?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 1630 GMT: More ritual statements after the meeting between Secretary of Defense Gates and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "A large part of the discussion was devoted to Iran, with Gates saying that the US and Israel saw eye-to-eye on the Iranian nuclear threat, and reiterating that US engagement with Teheran would not be open-ended, said the Prime Minister's Office."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZprJ1YDufEM[/youtube]

Unsurprisingly the media are all a-flutter today over Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's statement, after his meeting with US counterpart Robert Gates, over an Israeli response to an Iranian nuclear programme: "We clearly believe that no option should be removed from the table. This is our policy; we mean it."

It's an entirely predictable statement, bringing an entirely predictable reaction. An insignificant statement --- despite the media's excitement --- on the military front. A more significant statement --- despite the media's inattention --- on the diplomatic front.

Let's translate:

BARAK: "This is our policy; we mean it." [I know, Mr Gates, that you and your Administration will not support an Israeli military attack on Iran. But my Government isn't planning on moving anywhere on talks to the Palestinians, and we're not that certain about discussions with Syria. And we definitely don't want the word "settlements" coming up in this conversation.

I've got a domestic audience watching this press conference, and there's nothing of substance I can give them. So I'm going to say, IRAN...IRAN...IRAN.]

GATES: "[Engagement is] not an open-ended offer....[We are aware Iran may try to] run out the clock....The timetable the president laid out still seems to be viable and does not significantly raise the risks to anybody." [No, you're not going to attack Iran, so let's deal with the diplomatic process.

My President is committed to an attempt to resolve the issues with Iran through discussion. At the same time, we need to keep you on-side, so you don't do anything crazy. And we don't want you using the Iran excuse to delay moves on other Middle Eastern issues. Last but not least, I've got an American public opinion --- as well as some people within my own Government --- who think there can never be an agreement with Tehran.

So you can get a vague statement that talks are not open-ended. The press can speculate on a deadline: End of September? December? But it's only July, and everything is up in the air given the internal situation in Iran, so no need to face the put-up-or-shut-up music yet.]

GATES: "We will continue to ensure that Israel has the most advanced weapons for its national defense." [Here's your symbolic and very real pay-off for not pushing us on this.]

BARAK: "Israel remains in its basic position that no options should be removed from the table, even though priority at this stage should be given to diplomacy." [That's cool. Thanks for the weapons. And, remember, shhh.... on the settlements.]