The Latest from Iran (28 July): The Regime Crumbles

The Latest from Iran (29 July): The Memorial and the Inauguration
NEW Iran: Or Is It the Supreme Leader v. the Revolutionary Guard?
NEW Iran: Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?
Iran Video (27 July): The Nighttime Protest
The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

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2200 GMT: Late Breaking News. The reformist website Mardomak reports that the memorial ceremonies for the fallen protesters will most probably be held this Thursday. The website asserts, "Although a rather low-level official of the ministry has objected to holding these ceremonies...there has not been any official objection... It seems that the government officials know that if they officially object, the government would then have to shoulder the responsibility of preventing these ceremony to happen." Mardomak also stated that if the doors of the Mosala are not opened on Thursday, all participants will sit down in the middle of Beheshti Street and light candles and recite the Koran.

2115 GMT: And so to close where we began this morning, considering the problems for President Ahmadinejad.

1. It is clear that the President will now be opposed by the "Principlist" bloc in Parliament. The vocal criticism of Ali Motahari has now been joined by the Islamic Engineers Society, which has criticised both the appointment of the First Vice President and the sacking of the Minister of Intelligence: "It seems you want to be the sole speaker and do not want to hear other voices… therefore it is our duty to convey to you the voice of the people." (Significantly, this news was reported on Press TV's website.)

Principlist legislator Hamid-Reza Katouzian told Tabnak: “Allegiance to the rule of just jurisprudence is not embracing the Leader and kissing his hand; allegiance must be practical....Putting the incidents of the past 10 days together, whether they were purposeful or carried out unintentionally, only show a confrontation with the Leader, and it is my opinion and that of other Principlists that Mr. Ahmadinejad needs to determine the nature of his relationship with the Leader.”

2. A "conservative" Member of Parliament, Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, has expressed support for Hashemi Rafsanjani and has advocated compensation to the families of slain protesters. He also considered demonstrators to be "young gullible individuals who can be released".

3. Perhaps in response to this pressure, Ahmadinejad has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi to deal with the situation of the detainees (which Shahroudi had promised yesterday), hoping that the release of these individuals will coincide with the Birthday of Imam Mahdi. Ahmadinejad claims that most detainees have been "hoodwinked into participating these protests by individuals related to certain internal politicians or the propaganda of foreign enemies".

http://tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=57383

2045 GMT: Mohammad Tavasoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been freed after 43 days in detention.

2030 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who has emerged as a vocal critic of the Government, has issued another statement criticising those who have ignored "the vote of the majority".

1945 GMT: The Memorial is On. Despite the denial of a permit from the Ministry of Interior, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page announces the gathering will take place from 6 to 7:30 p.m. local time on Thursday at the Grand Mosala in Tehran. The page also puts up a poster for the event (pictured).

1930 GMT: American Perceptions. After the news of the denial of the permit for the Thursday memorial, a quieter phase in Iran news. Meanwhile, in the US there is a discussion of clerical power, political roles, and individual rights under the Iranian Constitution. Francis Fukuyama started it in The Wall Street Journal, and Kevin Sullivan has continued it on Real Clear World. It's a commentary as notable for the American perception of "Islamic Iran" as it is for insight into the Iranian system.

1755 GMT: The head of the political office of the Ministry of the Interior, Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, has told Fars News that no official permission has been given to any individual or group for a "40th Day" gathering on Thursday. Abbaszdeh said, "Memorial ceremonies are considered to be private issues of citizens and any request for such ceremonies from the interior ministry has obvious political overtones".

1710 GMT: Another Ayatollah for Rafsanjani. Following the public support of Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Zarandi for Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 1205 GMT), Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri has also praised the former President and his speech at Friday prayers in Tehran.

1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting that politician Saeed Hajjarian will be among the 140 detainees released after a Parliamentary review.

1540 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei? Back to our main story today. Parleman News reports that, after the dismissal of Minister of Intelligence Ejeie, President Ahmadinejad has taken direct control of the Ministry by ordering his replacement, Majid Alavi, to report directly to him. The Intelligence Ministry normally is supervised by the Supreme Leader, according to an English-language interpretation of the story.

1530 GMT: Women's rights lawyer Shadi Sadr has been released on bail of about $50,000.

1520 GMT: Fars News confirms that, after review by the Parliamentary Security Committee including a tour of the prisons and a visit to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- see 0750 GMT), 140 prisoners will be released today. Another 150 will continued to be held because, according to an English translation of the report, they had weapons at the time of arrest.

(Question: Are detainees like politician Saeed Hajjarian and former Government advisors like Abdollah Ramezanzadeh being held because they were carrying weapons?)Sa

141o GMT: A steady stream of Internet chatter this afternoon about the death of Amir Javadifar in prison. His body was reportedly returned to his family on Sunday for burial. There are also claims of the death of Ramin Ghahremani two days after his release from detention.


1205 GMT: The political battle amongst the clerics of the Assembly of Experts continues. Ayatollah Hossein Zarandi, the representative of the city of Kermanshah in the Assembly, has defied the letter issued by "hard-liners" last week and supported the Friday prayer address of former President Rafsanjani.

1200 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Some Iranian websites are reporting that some Grand Ayatollahs may move from Qom to Najaf in Iraq. Clerical authorities in Najaf have indicated they would welcome any cleric who joined them.

1155 GMT: Tabnak is reporting that Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, a member of the Guardian Council and the brother of Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, will succeed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi as the head of Iran's judiciary on 25 August.

0945 GMT: Foreign Policy gives some attention to Iran with an interview with the former cleric Mehdi Khalaji, who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

0940 GMT: We've reposted our first morning update as a separate entry, "Will the Supreme Leader Give Up on Ahmadinejad?"

0830 GMT: Has the State Media Turned? There is a flurry of comment this morning on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) has changed its line. Tabnak is reporting on IRIB's "severe criticism of Ahmadinejad". Until recently, IRIB had been very supportive of the President but, after the dispute over the First Vice President, the broadcaster has given significant airtime to critics of Ahmadinejad, such as the cleric Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai and the "principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari.

Our correspondent Mani makes an important point, however. This is more evidence of a dispute within conservative ranks rather than IRIB sympathy for the Green Movement. No "reformist" critic has made an appearance on the channel.

(Ansar News has also published an editorial which is fiercely critical of the President.)

0820 GMT: As the Supreme Leader considers what to do with his President (see separate entry), the fired Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has chipped in. He has written a letter, which has not been public, to the Supreme Leader.

0750 GMT: Larijani Does Damage Control. Yesterday we reported how the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, stepped in to save the President when Ahmadinejad's attempted firing of four Ministers threatened to cripple the Government.

Now Farda News reports Larijani's attempt to deal with, and limit the damage from, the detainee issue. The chairman of the Parliamentary Security Committee, Kazem Jalali, says that Larijani asked the committee "to study seriously the pathology of these issues and treat all of the detainees (especially the university students and faculty) in a manner compatible with Islamic justice and fairness and kindness tempered with a strong dose of forgiveness2.

According to Jalili, Larijani declared, "Parliament is the refuge of people and as MPs we must listen to the complaints of everyone and try to address and solve the issues....Today society needs peace and calm but foreign media is attempting to inflame our society."

0715 GMT: Preparing for the 40th Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of Neda Agha-Soltan three days before the "40th Day" memorial/rally on 30 July. Karroubi expressed his sympathy to Neda's mother, "None of us knows our fate or destiny and none can say what events are awaiting us....The dear child that lost her life was the ultimate symbol of being innocent and being wronged, [her death] had a huge effect both inside and outside Iran. Neda's death loudly proclaimed the fact that the Iranian people are being oppressed and at the same time prevented further injustices and hopefully will have great beneficial effects upon the current and future life of [the Iranian] people."

Neda's mother complained about the statements of Ayatollah Seyed Ahmed Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, and Ezatullah Zarghami, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, "As if the death of Neda was not enough for me, one of these two called my child an actress and claimed that her death was 'generated by a computer', and the other claimed her to be an actress [faking her death]." She concluded, "Neda, like thousands of other young people, cared for the fate of her country, she like other young people protested the results of the election."

0645 GMT: The Meeting of the Ayatollahs. Meanwhile, the negotiations between the Green Movement and the clerics of Qoms are proceeding. BBC Persian reports, via the website of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri,that he has been discussing "issues regarding religious law and politics " with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili and Grand Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri-Zanjani.

The details of the meeting, taking place at the summer residence of Montazeri in the village of Khaveh, have not been announced. However, BBC Persian implies that the Grand Ayatollahs are now considering the open letter of Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi and other reformists for intervention on detainees. (Yesterday we summarised the first open response to the letter, offered by Ayatollah Yousef Sanei.)

The roles of Montazeri and Mousavi-Ardebili, who have both been critical of the Government during the post-election crisis, are not surprising. However, Shobeiri-Zanjani has not stated his position, and he is a long-time friend of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, religious analyst Hassan Shariatmadari speculates on BBC Persian that Shobeiri-Zanjani may be conveying messages from Khamenei asking for a solution to growing problems.

The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

The Latest from Iran (28 July): Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?

NEW Iran: English Text of Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi Letter to Grand Ayatollahs (25 July)
NEW Another View from Iran: Seyed Mohammad Marandi on CNN (26 July)
The Latest from Iran (26 July): Four Days to The Green Movement’s Next Wave

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2035 GMT: Bad Cop, Good Cop on Detentions. "Principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari presses the head of Iran's judiciary to give up the name of the killer of detainee Mohsen Roosul Amini (1945 GMT). President candidate Mohsen Rezaei, whose campaign manager was the father of Roosul Amini, praises the head of the judiciary: “I would like to express my gratitude toward Your Excellency for setting a one-week deadline for the determination of the fate of the prisoners of the unrest.”

“I hope that judiciary officials will carry out your orders as soon as possible and relieve the concerns of the families of the detainees.”

2005 GMT: Oops, Another Crack in the Cabinet. Associated Press has published the news we reported yesterday: an appeals court upheld the fraud conviction of Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian, a close ally of the President. Researcher Farzan Salimi claimed Mehrabian had stolen his idea for an "earthquake saferoom" in homes. The court ordered the registration of the design to be taken from Mehrabian and an associate and given to Salimi, but did not otherwise assign punishment. Salimi confirmed the ruling to The Associated Press.

So, since Ahmadinejad has just fired one Minister, will the conviction of another leave his Government vulnerable to a Parliamentary vote of confidence? Apparently not. Mohsen Koohkan, a prominent legislator, said Parliament will consider Mehrabian's conviction, but in the context of the next Government after Ahmadinejad's 5 August inauguration rather than the current one.

And there's some good news for the President. His name was also on the 2005 book that published the design for the "earthquake saferoom", but he escaped being named as a defendant.

1945 GMT: Calling the Bluff on Detainees. "Principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari, an increasingly vocal critic of the Government, has demanded that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Sharoudi, release the name of the interrogator that killed Mohsen Roohul Amini.

The declaration is not only a test of the Government's willingness to deal with the issue of detainee rights. It is an indication that the regime has been damaged amongst its own supporters by the case of Ruhol Amini, who was the son of a prominent "conservative" political activist.

1855 GMT: In a separate entry, we have published the English translation of Ayatollah Yousef Sanei's response to the Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi letter to the Grand Ayatollahs on detainees.

1830 GMT: Did Ali Larijani Save Ahmadinejad? Jam-e-Jam Online has claimed that, after Ahmadinejad finishing his "firing spree", dismissing four ministers, Larijani informed him that firing more than one minister would require a Parliamentary vote of confidence for the Government to resume operations. This forced Ahmadinejad to reinstate Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi and, presumably, never confirm the firings of the Ministers of Health and Labour.

1820 GMT: The conservative press is claiming that Hashemi Rafsanjani is boycotting Ahmadinejad's inauguration on 5 August.

1815 GMT: It has emerged that 205 "conservative" Members of Parliament signed an open letter to the Supreme Leader, re-stating their general support of his position and his specific actions over First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. The letter was publicly read in parliament, while one Member of Parliament said another private letter was sent to the President: "In this letter we expressed our support for the GovernmentP but we also have asked the President to improve his behavior in a way that will facilitate rapid implementation of the Supreme Leader's comments and opinions".

The "reformists" refrained from signing this letter. One said, "[We] are of the opinion that critical letters will have a very little effect on Ahmadinejad's behavior, we doubt the efficacy of such letters and therefore have refrained from signing it."

1805 GMT: After yesterday's fun and games, the President has been quieter today, but there is one report mixing politics, amusement, and a bit of irony. Tabnak claims that Ali Kordan, the former Interior Minister, was asked to become the Inspector General of the Presidency, but that he rejected the post.

Kordan was forced to step down last year when he was inspected and found wanting: he had claimed, falsely, to have a Ph.D. from Oxford University.

1745 GMT: Another (Small) Concession. Just over two hours after we reported signs from the head of Iran's judiciary that there might be some movement regarding detainees, Press TV confirms Internet chatter of a token order by the Supreme Leader: "The head of Iran's National Security Council [Saeed Jalili] said Monday that Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei had demanded that [a "non-standard"] prison which did not measure up to the required standards to be shut down. "In the course of recent events, the Leader has ordered officials (to take measures), so that no one, God forbid, suffers injustice."

Jalili added, "Ayatollah Khamenei had insisted that officials were obliged to 'precisely' probe into incidents in which wrongdoings may have been committed against detainees."

1535 GMT: Old People Can't Drive and They Can't Run a Country. This summary of the Friday address of Hojjatoleslam Gholam-Reza Hassani, the leader is Urumiyeh, is offered without further comment:

Hassani thanked Security forces for restoring and maintaining calm throughout the country.

Hassani said that seniors should refrain from participating in activities they are incapable of doing properly. He went on to use driving as an example and opined that to prevent inflecting harm on themselves and others, seniors who cannot control their cars must stay off the road.

The senior West Azarbaijan cleric then noted the “desires of certain presidential candidates in their advanced age” and queried, “Those who do lack physical and mental capacity, why do they try to wreck havoc in the country? When you cannot even keep your ammameh (clerical hat) on your head and your dentures in your mouth how do you want to govern the country?”

NOTE 1: Attending Friday prayers in Tehran on 17 June, Mehdi Karroubi's ammameh was knocked off when he was jostled by security forces.

NOTE 2: The Supreme Leader turned 70 earlier this month.

1520 GMT: The Detentions Issue. In a clear sign that the opposition demands are having some effect, a spokesman for the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, said that a decision must come within a week on the fate of prisoners, and he indicated some prisoners should be freed. The spokesman, Ali Reza Jamshidi, said about 300 people were still detained. (English-language version of story)

1500 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. We referred in our first update today (0545 GMT) to the "valuable breathing space [offered by President Ahmadinejad's troubles] for the opposition as they plan the memorial and other political moves". Following up his statement with Medhi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and others to Grand Ayatollahs (see separate entry), Mir Hossein Mousavi has given a clear signal on his website about the importance of the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July: ""The pro-reform path will continue. The establishment should respect the constitution and let us to gather to commemorate our killed loved ones on Thursday."

(Far from incidentally, Reuters, which reported this news, still does not understand the significance of Thursday's gathering, failing to note that it is for those killed in demonstrations on 20 June.)

The Mousavi page also endorses the moves against pro-Government members of the Assembly of Experts, publishing Ayatollah Dastghaib's letter (0708 GMT).

1200 GMT: Today's "Really? No Kidding?" Headline. In The New York Times: "Ahmadinejad Seen as Increasingly Vulnerable Since Re-election".

0930 GMT: Reports that the Iranian actress Pegah Ahangarani has been arrested.

0755 GMT: A seven-member Parliamentary committee, "despite the explicit opposition of some institutions", has visited Evin and Rajayi Prisons this morning to assess the situation and condition of detainees.

0708 GMT: After Ayatollah Hareesi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that last week's letter --- issued in the name of the Assembly but signed by only 16 of the 86 Experts --- denouncing Hashemi Rafsanjani was invalid, Dastgheib has supported Rafsanjani in even stronger terms, publishing a scathing reply that seriously questions the motives and integrity of Rafsanjani's right wing critics:

Some people think that any support of Ayatollah Hashemi [Rafsanjani]'s speech is equivalent to a personal defense of Hashemi and a swipe at his enemies. As a matter of fact this is not the case, any reasonable listener will admire this speech and realize that [adherence to] its statements leads to a long term strengthening of the Islamic Republic....

You advise ethics and morality. [If you were sincere] it would have been moral if you had condemened all the instances that Islamic law was ignored during the televised presidential debates, or if you had condemned all the Anti-Islamic torture that goes on in state prisons, prisons that deliver dead bodies every day.

Be sure that if you treat people with sincerity they would treat the clerical class with the correct respect and deference.... Your policy of defamation, supression and accusations of heresy, treason, working against the establishment has repelled any reputable personality or society. Instead of this...it would be much better if you treat people with kindness, apologize for your behavior, free prisoners, by freeing them you are attending the demands of the majority.

0700 GMT: Untangling the Government mess. The Minister of Intelligence was fired. Minister of Culture Saffar-Harandi, after Ahmadinejad tried to fire him but then pulled back, submitted a letter of resignation. However, Saffar-Harandi said that he would postpone the effective date of resignation "so that he can merely be used as a number [to prevent a vote of confidence] in the remaining eight days of Ahmadinejad's Government"

0545 GMT: More than 12 hours after news first appeared of the firing of Cabinet members, it is still unclear how far President Ahmadinejad has gone to remake his Government and how effective he will be. It appears that at least one Minister, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie (Intelligence), has been fired, but reports vary on whether a second Minister, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi (Culture), has been dismissed. Earlier reports of the firing of the Ministers of Health and Labour were never verified.

At this point, the best explanation for the confusion (although there is no way of knowing if it is true without the confirmation of Ahmadinejad) is that the President considered removing all four ministers, leading to stories of a mass firing, but then pulled back when he realised his Government would no longer be able to act without a Parliamentary vote of confidence.

After his defeat over the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has Ahmadinejad been able to salvage some authority? Equally important, has he been able to establish the legitimacy of his Government, a legitimacy in question ever since the election on 12 June? We're working on an analysis, which we hope to publish later today.

Ahmadinejad's troubles are a double-edged development for the opposition. The news has overshadowed the announcement of the next major show of protest, the "40th Day" memorial service on 30 July for those who died in demonstrations on 20 June. Many in the media appear to have missed the significance of the event. Although there will be no speeches, only readings from the Koran, the memorial will be a public sign that people will come out in large numbers to challenge the regime. (There is a parallel with the only other legal gathering allowed by the Government since 15 June, the memorial service 13 days later at Qoba Mosque for Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti. On that occasion, the opposition was in disarray and had little time or space to organise the demonstration. Still, thousands of people turned up.)

Our correspondent Mani summarises the practical and symbolic importance of the location for the event:

1) It was an prayer area that was designed when Mir Hossein Mousavi was Prime Minister in the late 1980s.
2) It is located in a highly accessible area of Tehran but not in downtown Tehran.
3) It can accommodate a huge number of people. If Mousavi and Karroubi are able to fill it (and personally I have no doubt than they can do so). they will show a strength in numbers that is an challenge that will make it difficult for the conservatives to respond. Given the contrast between the number of people participating in Rafsanjani's Friday prayers with the audience at the other Friday prayers, I doubt that the conservatives will be able to amass the same number of supporters.
4) It is also interesting that in the request it has been explicitly stated that no speeches and rallys will take place and only traditional Koran recitations will happen. I think this has been a stroke of genius. First, it will make it very hard for the Government to deny a orderly request to pay respects, which isItotally within the framework of islamic protocol. Second, Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are publicly avowing the islamic nature of their protest. Third, Mousavi and Karroubi by organizing this memorial service have constructed an orderly conduit for their supporters (especially the younger more hotheaded elements) to express their grief and frustration, preventing the possibility that this grief and frustration will be converted into a rage that would be uncontrollable by the organizers. This will help demoMousavi and Karroubi to demonstrate, calmly yet effectively, the level of societal support that exists for their movement in a controlled fashion.

Yet, if the President has taken the headlines with his Cabinet discussions, this also gives valuable breathing space for the opposition as they plan the memorial and other political moves. We are still awaiting, for example, the effects of Saturday's call by Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami to Grand Ayatollahs to intervene on behalf of detainees.

It is far from incidental that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, amidst the gathering news of Ahmadinejad's troubles, seized the opportunity to give a carefully-calibrated interview. His public support for the Supreme Leader, coupled with his continued references to the difficulties raised by the election, keep up pressure on the Government while protecting Rafsanjani from the charges --- levelled by his hard-line opponents in the Assembly of Experts --- that he is undermining Khamenei. Correspondent Mani sets out the position:

Behind all the polite talk Rafsanjani is sticking to his guns. If indeed " the Supreme Leader solves the current problems based on ... the solutions I [Rafsanjani] offered in the Friday prayer", a very weak and irrelevant Khamenei will be the result. What we must remember is that the opposition is protesting from within the system, so it is Khamenei's weakening not his elimination that they are seeking. One must remember that saving face is the underlying principle of all interactions between clerics.

On the clerical front, but almost lost in yesterday's drama, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili issued a public statement demanding that: 1) the rights of the detainees be respected; b) detainees who have not committed any crime be freed immediately; c) families who have lost members be compensated. The Ayatollah stated,

The recent regrettable events are incompatible with the dignity of Islamic Establishment....and have caused a great concern for all true supporters of the country and the Islamic Republic.....Unsubstantiated accusations and disrespect towards prominent national and religious figures will not only fail to pacify the country but will in fact feed the flames of the crisis.......I fear that prolonging the cuurent situation will both weaken the foundations of the establishment and the erode the trust of the people in the establishment and will lead to an exacerbation of the crisis.... I demand that all officials and influential individuals try to reverse the damage that has already been done and try to rebuild the confidence of the people in this establishment.

The Ayatollah concluded with an apparent hint to Rafsanjani, and possibly Khatami-Karroubi-Mousavi, as he hoped "that the prudence of capable people that have already served this establishment for a long time will provide a solution for rescuing the country from this painfully complicated situation and that the experience gained through these events will provide a blueprint for a much better methodolgy for administering the issues of society".