The Latest from Iran (28 July): The Regime Crumbles

The Latest from Iran (29 July): The Memorial and the Inauguration
NEW Iran: Or Is It the Supreme Leader v. the Revolutionary Guard?
NEW Iran: Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?
Iran Video (27 July): The Nighttime Protest
The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

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2200 GMT: Late Breaking News. The reformist website Mardomak reports that the memorial ceremonies for the fallen protesters will most probably be held this Thursday. The website asserts, "Although a rather low-level official of the ministry has objected to holding these ceremonies...there has not been any official objection... It seems that the government officials know that if they officially object, the government would then have to shoulder the responsibility of preventing these ceremony to happen." Mardomak also stated that if the doors of the Mosala are not opened on Thursday, all participants will sit down in the middle of Beheshti Street and light candles and recite the Koran.

2115 GMT: And so to close where we began this morning, considering the problems for President Ahmadinejad.

1. It is clear that the President will now be opposed by the "Principlist" bloc in Parliament. The vocal criticism of Ali Motahari has now been joined by the Islamic Engineers Society, which has criticised both the appointment of the First Vice President and the sacking of the Minister of Intelligence: "It seems you want to be the sole speaker and do not want to hear other voices… therefore it is our duty to convey to you the voice of the people." (Significantly, this news was reported on Press TV's website.)

Principlist legislator Hamid-Reza Katouzian told Tabnak: “Allegiance to the rule of just jurisprudence is not embracing the Leader and kissing his hand; allegiance must be practical....Putting the incidents of the past 10 days together, whether they were purposeful or carried out unintentionally, only show a confrontation with the Leader, and it is my opinion and that of other Principlists that Mr. Ahmadinejad needs to determine the nature of his relationship with the Leader.”

2. A "conservative" Member of Parliament, Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, has expressed support for Hashemi Rafsanjani and has advocated compensation to the families of slain protesters. He also considered demonstrators to be "young gullible individuals who can be released".

3. Perhaps in response to this pressure, Ahmadinejad has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi to deal with the situation of the detainees (which Shahroudi had promised yesterday), hoping that the release of these individuals will coincide with the Birthday of Imam Mahdi. Ahmadinejad claims that most detainees have been "hoodwinked into participating these protests by individuals related to certain internal politicians or the propaganda of foreign enemies".

http://tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=57383

2045 GMT: Mohammad Tavasoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been freed after 43 days in detention.

2030 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who has emerged as a vocal critic of the Government, has issued another statement criticising those who have ignored "the vote of the majority".

1945 GMT: The Memorial is On. Despite the denial of a permit from the Ministry of Interior, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page announces the gathering will take place from 6 to 7:30 p.m. local time on Thursday at the Grand Mosala in Tehran. The page also puts up a poster for the event (pictured).

1930 GMT: American Perceptions. After the news of the denial of the permit for the Thursday memorial, a quieter phase in Iran news. Meanwhile, in the US there is a discussion of clerical power, political roles, and individual rights under the Iranian Constitution. Francis Fukuyama started it in The Wall Street Journal, and Kevin Sullivan has continued it on Real Clear World. It's a commentary as notable for the American perception of "Islamic Iran" as it is for insight into the Iranian system.

1755 GMT: The head of the political office of the Ministry of the Interior, Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, has told Fars News that no official permission has been given to any individual or group for a "40th Day" gathering on Thursday. Abbaszdeh said, "Memorial ceremonies are considered to be private issues of citizens and any request for such ceremonies from the interior ministry has obvious political overtones".

1710 GMT: Another Ayatollah for Rafsanjani. Following the public support of Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Zarandi for Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 1205 GMT), Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri has also praised the former President and his speech at Friday prayers in Tehran.

1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting that politician Saeed Hajjarian will be among the 140 detainees released after a Parliamentary review.

1540 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei? Back to our main story today. Parleman News reports that, after the dismissal of Minister of Intelligence Ejeie, President Ahmadinejad has taken direct control of the Ministry by ordering his replacement, Majid Alavi, to report directly to him. The Intelligence Ministry normally is supervised by the Supreme Leader, according to an English-language interpretation of the story.

1530 GMT: Women's rights lawyer Shadi Sadr has been released on bail of about $50,000.

1520 GMT: Fars News confirms that, after review by the Parliamentary Security Committee including a tour of the prisons and a visit to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- see 0750 GMT), 140 prisoners will be released today. Another 150 will continued to be held because, according to an English translation of the report, they had weapons at the time of arrest.

(Question: Are detainees like politician Saeed Hajjarian and former Government advisors like Abdollah Ramezanzadeh being held because they were carrying weapons?)Sa

141o GMT: A steady stream of Internet chatter this afternoon about the death of Amir Javadifar in prison. His body was reportedly returned to his family on Sunday for burial. There are also claims of the death of Ramin Ghahremani two days after his release from detention.


1205 GMT: The political battle amongst the clerics of the Assembly of Experts continues. Ayatollah Hossein Zarandi, the representative of the city of Kermanshah in the Assembly, has defied the letter issued by "hard-liners" last week and supported the Friday prayer address of former President Rafsanjani.

1200 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Some Iranian websites are reporting that some Grand Ayatollahs may move from Qom to Najaf in Iraq. Clerical authorities in Najaf have indicated they would welcome any cleric who joined them.

1155 GMT: Tabnak is reporting that Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, a member of the Guardian Council and the brother of Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, will succeed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi as the head of Iran's judiciary on 25 August.

0945 GMT: Foreign Policy gives some attention to Iran with an interview with the former cleric Mehdi Khalaji, who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

0940 GMT: We've reposted our first morning update as a separate entry, "Will the Supreme Leader Give Up on Ahmadinejad?"

0830 GMT: Has the State Media Turned? There is a flurry of comment this morning on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) has changed its line. Tabnak is reporting on IRIB's "severe criticism of Ahmadinejad". Until recently, IRIB had been very supportive of the President but, after the dispute over the First Vice President, the broadcaster has given significant airtime to critics of Ahmadinejad, such as the cleric Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai and the "principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari.

Our correspondent Mani makes an important point, however. This is more evidence of a dispute within conservative ranks rather than IRIB sympathy for the Green Movement. No "reformist" critic has made an appearance on the channel.

(Ansar News has also published an editorial which is fiercely critical of the President.)

0820 GMT: As the Supreme Leader considers what to do with his President (see separate entry), the fired Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has chipped in. He has written a letter, which has not been public, to the Supreme Leader.

0750 GMT: Larijani Does Damage Control. Yesterday we reported how the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, stepped in to save the President when Ahmadinejad's attempted firing of four Ministers threatened to cripple the Government.

Now Farda News reports Larijani's attempt to deal with, and limit the damage from, the detainee issue. The chairman of the Parliamentary Security Committee, Kazem Jalali, says that Larijani asked the committee "to study seriously the pathology of these issues and treat all of the detainees (especially the university students and faculty) in a manner compatible with Islamic justice and fairness and kindness tempered with a strong dose of forgiveness2.

According to Jalili, Larijani declared, "Parliament is the refuge of people and as MPs we must listen to the complaints of everyone and try to address and solve the issues....Today society needs peace and calm but foreign media is attempting to inflame our society."

0715 GMT: Preparing for the 40th Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of Neda Agha-Soltan three days before the "40th Day" memorial/rally on 30 July. Karroubi expressed his sympathy to Neda's mother, "None of us knows our fate or destiny and none can say what events are awaiting us....The dear child that lost her life was the ultimate symbol of being innocent and being wronged, [her death] had a huge effect both inside and outside Iran. Neda's death loudly proclaimed the fact that the Iranian people are being oppressed and at the same time prevented further injustices and hopefully will have great beneficial effects upon the current and future life of [the Iranian] people."

Neda's mother complained about the statements of Ayatollah Seyed Ahmed Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, and Ezatullah Zarghami, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, "As if the death of Neda was not enough for me, one of these two called my child an actress and claimed that her death was 'generated by a computer', and the other claimed her to be an actress [faking her death]." She concluded, "Neda, like thousands of other young people, cared for the fate of her country, she like other young people protested the results of the election."

0645 GMT: The Meeting of the Ayatollahs. Meanwhile, the negotiations between the Green Movement and the clerics of Qoms are proceeding. BBC Persian reports, via the website of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri,that he has been discussing "issues regarding religious law and politics " with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili and Grand Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri-Zanjani.

The details of the meeting, taking place at the summer residence of Montazeri in the village of Khaveh, have not been announced. However, BBC Persian implies that the Grand Ayatollahs are now considering the open letter of Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi and other reformists for intervention on detainees. (Yesterday we summarised the first open response to the letter, offered by Ayatollah Yousef Sanei.)

The roles of Montazeri and Mousavi-Ardebili, who have both been critical of the Government during the post-election crisis, are not surprising. However, Shobeiri-Zanjani has not stated his position, and he is a long-time friend of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, religious analyst Hassan Shariatmadari speculates on BBC Persian that Shobeiri-Zanjani may be conveying messages from Khamenei asking for a solution to growing problems.

The Urumqi Violence: Chinese Actions and Overseas Responses

To recap: after the raid on a toy factory in Shaoguan, organized by thousands of Han Chinese, and the murder of young Uighurs while they were sleeping, protests took place on July 5. There were clashes between Uighurs and Han Chinese, and then China's armed forces intervened.

Since then, Chinese officials have stated that 184 people, many of whom are Han Chinese, have died and 1680 have been wounded. Uighurs claim that the death toll is at least 1000 and may be twice that number.

The second round of demonstrations and a flood of blood came after the statement of Wang Luquan, the special mayor appointed to East Turkestan on 12 July. Wang Luquan declared that those found guilty of provoking the demonstrations, out of thousands of Uighurs arrested by Chinese armed forces, would be executed. A day later, thousands of Uighurs protested, and two were killed. According to the East Turkestan Culture and Solidarity Association, China is not allowing non-partisan observers to enter the region. Houses are still being searched and people taking photographs or making recordings are arrested.

With Wang Luquan stating that “no Chinese should fear since armed forces are with them”, the Association is worried that the blood flood may continue. However, Chinese officials state that the situation in East Turkestan is under control.

Reactions around the World:

Four days after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “genocide” accusation on July 10, the China Daily reiterated the official number of deaths and asked Erdogan “to take those words back.” The Turkish PM may be unmoved, however. His opening to improve relations with the Middle East may now have another supportive pillar farther east with his support of Uighurs, who are relatives of the Turkish people.

Perhaps the most striking response is coming from Iran. Ayatollah Cafer Subhani said that “it is a humanitarian and Islamic duty to defend the ones imposed pressure and cruelty.” He added, “Muslims used to be oppressed only in Western countries but they are being oppressed in yesterday’s communist and today’s capitalist China as well.” Subhani, supporting the Uighur, saw an Islamic nation united under ‘the pathway of God” versus a Western bloc, including Beijing, united under ‘the temporary power of dollars". Ayatollah Ahmed Khatemi declared, “Our religious teachings order us to protect all aggrieved people, especially Muslims bullied by others….The constitution of the Islamic Republic sees the Islamic world as one and states the protection of aggrieved Muslims as a duty of the Republic.”

[Editor's Note: These statements may be set against others of the Iranian Government, noted elsewhere on Enduring America, offering support for the Chinese position.]

In the USA, Democrat Bill Delahunt and Republican Dana Rohrabacher introduced a bill in Congress accusing China of extremely violent oppression and supporting Rebiya Kadeer, the Chairwoman of the World Uighur Congress, who has been blamed by Chinese officials for instigating riots. Delahunt said, “Stop slandering against a woman who has been nominated as a candidate to Nobel Peace Prize three times." Rohrabacher added, “We are condemning everyone applying to force based on race, religion and other reasons. This conflict is a result of Beijing’s intended plan to destroy the lands of Uighurs. In the long-term, it is China’s policy of genocide against the Uighur people.”

The Latest from Iran (3 July): The Long Haul?

The Latest from Iran (4 July): Breaking the Reformists? Not So Fast….

Iran: The Statement of "The Mourning Mothers of Iran"
A Song for Iran? “Free My Land”
LATEST Video: “Keeping the Peace” (30 June-2 July)
The Latest from Iran (2 July): The “Gradual” Opposition

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1825 GMT: BBC English has posted a video report on the Iranian Government's "public service" campaign on a telephone hotline for people to inform on family and friends participating in demonstrations.

1645 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i, a fervent critic of the Government, has condemned televised confessions, saying they have no value as the obvious product of torture. Sane'i emphasized that "endurance is the key to success".

1515 GMT: The demonstration for 9 July is on. Andrew Sullivan has posted a copy of a leaflet (left) for the rally.

1445 GMT: Etemade Melli, the pro-"reformist" newspaper, reports today on the censorship imposed on Thursday by prosecutors and Ministry of Culture officials. The paper claims that its account of how it was closed on Wednesday by authorities was removed. Political stories were replaced by a "social page" and an item on the National University entrance examination.

1435 GMT: Reports that Sara Sabbaghian, lawyers and women's rights activist, was freed from Evin Prison on Thursday. In contrast, the regime's pressure on those present at the death of Neda Agha Soltan continues; in addition to pursuit of the doctor who tried to help her, Arash Hejazi, an eyewitness to the killing claims his family is being harassed.

There are also claims that three people have been killed, more than 200 injured, and many detained in the eastern city of Mashaad.

1315 GMT: Was Ayatollah Jannati's "foreign enemies" claim, with the threat of espionage trials, too embarrassing for Iranian state media? Press TV's website makes no reference to the allegations against Britain, saying cryptically that Jannati "warn[ed] that powers in the West would derive great benefits if the internal dispute continued to drag on". Instead, Press TV headlines, "Cleric urges end to election dispute in Iran". The Islamic Republic News Agency takes the same path, "Ayatollah Jannati: Presidential Elections Were Accurate".

An alternative explanation is that, whereas foreign media jumped on the Jannati reference to a possible trial, the focus of his speech was indeed on providing reassurances about the election process and warning that it was now over. The broader interpretation is unchanged, however; the regime is not yet secure that it has overcome the challenge on the streets and behind the scenes.

1250 GMT: We're keeping our eyes open for a text of Ayatollah Jannati's address at Friday prayers but my initial sense is that it indicates some continuing regime concern about protests: they have risked a heightened  invocation of the foreign threat, which may damage relations with Britain, Europe, and the US, to ensure public support for their maintenance of "order".

1245 GMT: More on the report below that Iranian staff of the British Embassy may be tried on espionage charges. The warning was issued by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the Guardian Council, as he led Friday prayers in Tehran: "British foreign office had said last March that there may be riots during the elections in Iran and they said that they should warn their citizens to be careful. What do these predictions mean? And then some people in the U.K. embassy, who had a hand in the disturbances, were arrested and will surely be put on trial."

The context of the warning being issued in Friday prayers, rather than by a security or judiciary official, is significant --- it may even be good news for the detainees. This seems more of a political posture, reinforcing the regime's continued excuse of "foreign intervention" for its crackdown on internal dissent (see our prediction this morning in "What To Watch For Today", than a specific move towards formal prosecution.

1000 GMT: Watch Out. Both the BBC Persian service and Agence France Presse are reporting the statement of a Guardian Council member that local "staffers" of the British Embassy will be tried on espionage charges.

The plural should be noted, as earlier in the week Iranian authorities said all but one of the nine people detained had been released. And, if true, the report marks a significant escalation of tensions by Iran with Britain (though not directly with the US).

0930 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) posts a firsthand report from Tehran:

It's kind of changed from the first week, but it's definitely not over over. it's just going to be more drawn out, I think.

It's become a lot more localized in a way. People just do what they can on their own with their circle of people. Demonstrations are smaller but in different places now. I don't know how widely circulated the information going around is but there's a pretty large amount. You can feel it with strangers even like taxi drivers.

It's not that they're less pissed. If anything, they're more pissed. Because of the state and how blatantly they're lying.

0700 GMT: More on the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined to lead Friday prayers in Tehran last week. The original story is on a pro-Khatami, pro-Mousavi website. It is supported, according to Josh Shahryar, by one of his reliable sources.

0610 GMT: Josh Shahryar's daily "Green Brief", which we highlighted yesterday, again offers an essential overview of developments. Almost all of the items match up with information in our updates and other reliable sources. However, this item (which we will try to confirm) is both new and significant:

It has been reported that Rafsanjani, who is one of the Imams that lead Friday Prayers in Tehran's largest mosque, has declined to lead prayers there again. Last week, his spot was first filled by Khamenei, but Khamenei pulled out at the last minute leaving Ahmad Khatami to lead the prayers. Rafsanjani is not planning to attend this Friday's Prayers either.

0555 GMT: The challenge in Iran is now close to a non-story for major international outlets. There is nothing on CNN International's website and no appearance in the headlines of the BBC or Al Jazeera English. The BBC website only has a limited article on the removal of the block on SMS messaging, while Al Jazeera is still running the news from Wednesday that Mir Hossein Mousavi may face criminal charges.

Press TV English, meanwhile, is featuring the story of Israel's detention of former US Senator (and Press TV presenter) Cynthia McKinney and other activists, who were trying to break the Israeli sea blockade to get humanitarian aid to Gaza. (Ironically but significantly, the incident has been a non-story for US media.)

The Iran Crisis (Day 22): What to Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (3 July): The Long Haul?
NEW Iran: The Statement of “The Mourning Mothers of Iran”
NEW A Song for Iran? “Free My Land”

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It now appears that the challenge in Iran has moved into a new phase. There will still be daily demonstrations, but they will be "indirect" in their opposition to the Government. Instead of posing questions over the election or the legimitacy of President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian system, they will commemorate the dead and highlight the plight of detainees. Direct, mass challenges will need several days, possibly weeks in planning.

So every day the relatives and supporters of the detained will gather in front of Evin Prison, and tomorrow mothers of "martyrs" will again try to pay their respects in Laleh Park. Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign will offer guidance for symbolic protest on his Facebook page. There will be periodic statements by the opposition leaders.

A clue to the next mass gathering has emerged this morning on a website giving the routes for a march in Tehran next Thursday, 9 July. Nine different rallies will converge on Enqelab (Revolution) Square.

And how is the regime feeling about the current state of affairs? An important clue comes today at Friday prayers at Tehran University. Two weeks ago, the Supreme Leader used the occasion to confront the opposition and to block possible political manoeuvres by key politicians like former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Last week Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami issued his warning that protest would be met by the heavy hands of Iranian security forces and the judiciary.

If the Ayatollah leading prayers today is low-key and makes no direct references to the opposition movement or the foreign threat, then the regime thinks that not only that the worst has passed but that it is unlikely to recur. If, however, the enemy appears, then there is still uncertainty and concern amongst the Iranian leadership.