The Latest from Iran (28 July): The Regime Crumbles

The Latest from Iran (29 July): The Memorial and the Inauguration
NEW Iran: Or Is It the Supreme Leader v. the Revolutionary Guard?
NEW Iran: Will the Supreme Leader Give Up Ahmadinejad?
Iran Video (27 July): The Nighttime Protest
The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

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2200 GMT: Late Breaking News. The reformist website Mardomak reports that the memorial ceremonies for the fallen protesters will most probably be held this Thursday. The website asserts, "Although a rather low-level official of the ministry has objected to holding these ceremonies...there has not been any official objection... It seems that the government officials know that if they officially object, the government would then have to shoulder the responsibility of preventing these ceremony to happen." Mardomak also stated that if the doors of the Mosala are not opened on Thursday, all participants will sit down in the middle of Beheshti Street and light candles and recite the Koran.

2115 GMT: And so to close where we began this morning, considering the problems for President Ahmadinejad.

1. It is clear that the President will now be opposed by the "Principlist" bloc in Parliament. The vocal criticism of Ali Motahari has now been joined by the Islamic Engineers Society, which has criticised both the appointment of the First Vice President and the sacking of the Minister of Intelligence: "It seems you want to be the sole speaker and do not want to hear other voices… therefore it is our duty to convey to you the voice of the people." (Significantly, this news was reported on Press TV's website.)

Principlist legislator Hamid-Reza Katouzian told Tabnak: “Allegiance to the rule of just jurisprudence is not embracing the Leader and kissing his hand; allegiance must be practical....Putting the incidents of the past 10 days together, whether they were purposeful or carried out unintentionally, only show a confrontation with the Leader, and it is my opinion and that of other Principlists that Mr. Ahmadinejad needs to determine the nature of his relationship with the Leader.”

2. A "conservative" Member of Parliament, Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, has expressed support for Hashemi Rafsanjani and has advocated compensation to the families of slain protesters. He also considered demonstrators to be "young gullible individuals who can be released".

3. Perhaps in response to this pressure, Ahmadinejad has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi to deal with the situation of the detainees (which Shahroudi had promised yesterday), hoping that the release of these individuals will coincide with the Birthday of Imam Mahdi. Ahmadinejad claims that most detainees have been "hoodwinked into participating these protests by individuals related to certain internal politicians or the propaganda of foreign enemies".

http://tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=57383

2045 GMT: Mohammad Tavasoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been freed after 43 days in detention.

2030 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who has emerged as a vocal critic of the Government, has issued another statement criticising those who have ignored "the vote of the majority".

1945 GMT: The Memorial is On. Despite the denial of a permit from the Ministry of Interior, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page announces the gathering will take place from 6 to 7:30 p.m. local time on Thursday at the Grand Mosala in Tehran. The page also puts up a poster for the event (pictured).

1930 GMT: American Perceptions. After the news of the denial of the permit for the Thursday memorial, a quieter phase in Iran news. Meanwhile, in the US there is a discussion of clerical power, political roles, and individual rights under the Iranian Constitution. Francis Fukuyama started it in The Wall Street Journal, and Kevin Sullivan has continued it on Real Clear World. It's a commentary as notable for the American perception of "Islamic Iran" as it is for insight into the Iranian system.

1755 GMT: The head of the political office of the Ministry of the Interior, Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, has told Fars News that no official permission has been given to any individual or group for a "40th Day" gathering on Thursday. Abbaszdeh said, "Memorial ceremonies are considered to be private issues of citizens and any request for such ceremonies from the interior ministry has obvious political overtones".

1710 GMT: Another Ayatollah for Rafsanjani. Following the public support of Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Zarandi for Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 1205 GMT), Ayatollah Jaleleddin Taheri has also praised the former President and his speech at Friday prayers in Tehran.

1700 GMT: An Iranian website is reporting that politician Saeed Hajjarian will be among the 140 detainees released after a Parliamentary review.

1540 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei? Back to our main story today. Parleman News reports that, after the dismissal of Minister of Intelligence Ejeie, President Ahmadinejad has taken direct control of the Ministry by ordering his replacement, Majid Alavi, to report directly to him. The Intelligence Ministry normally is supervised by the Supreme Leader, according to an English-language interpretation of the story.

1530 GMT: Women's rights lawyer Shadi Sadr has been released on bail of about $50,000.

1520 GMT: Fars News confirms that, after review by the Parliamentary Security Committee including a tour of the prisons and a visit to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- see 0750 GMT), 140 prisoners will be released today. Another 150 will continued to be held because, according to an English translation of the report, they had weapons at the time of arrest.

(Question: Are detainees like politician Saeed Hajjarian and former Government advisors like Abdollah Ramezanzadeh being held because they were carrying weapons?)Sa

141o GMT: A steady stream of Internet chatter this afternoon about the death of Amir Javadifar in prison. His body was reportedly returned to his family on Sunday for burial. There are also claims of the death of Ramin Ghahremani two days after his release from detention.


1205 GMT: The political battle amongst the clerics of the Assembly of Experts continues. Ayatollah Hossein Zarandi, the representative of the city of Kermanshah in the Assembly, has defied the letter issued by "hard-liners" last week and supported the Friday prayer address of former President Rafsanjani.

1200 GMT: Rumour of the Day. Some Iranian websites are reporting that some Grand Ayatollahs may move from Qom to Najaf in Iraq. Clerical authorities in Najaf have indicated they would welcome any cleric who joined them.

1155 GMT: Tabnak is reporting that Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, a member of the Guardian Council and the brother of Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, will succeed Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi as the head of Iran's judiciary on 25 August.

0945 GMT: Foreign Policy gives some attention to Iran with an interview with the former cleric Mehdi Khalaji, who is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

0940 GMT: We've reposted our first morning update as a separate entry, "Will the Supreme Leader Give Up on Ahmadinejad?"

0830 GMT: Has the State Media Turned? There is a flurry of comment this morning on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) has changed its line. Tabnak is reporting on IRIB's "severe criticism of Ahmadinejad". Until recently, IRIB had been very supportive of the President but, after the dispute over the First Vice President, the broadcaster has given significant airtime to critics of Ahmadinejad, such as the cleric Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai and the "principlist" Member of Parliament Ali Motahari.

Our correspondent Mani makes an important point, however. This is more evidence of a dispute within conservative ranks rather than IRIB sympathy for the Green Movement. No "reformist" critic has made an appearance on the channel.

(Ansar News has also published an editorial which is fiercely critical of the President.)

0820 GMT: As the Supreme Leader considers what to do with his President (see separate entry), the fired Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has chipped in. He has written a letter, which has not been public, to the Supreme Leader.

0750 GMT: Larijani Does Damage Control. Yesterday we reported how the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, stepped in to save the President when Ahmadinejad's attempted firing of four Ministers threatened to cripple the Government.

Now Farda News reports Larijani's attempt to deal with, and limit the damage from, the detainee issue. The chairman of the Parliamentary Security Committee, Kazem Jalali, says that Larijani asked the committee "to study seriously the pathology of these issues and treat all of the detainees (especially the university students and faculty) in a manner compatible with Islamic justice and fairness and kindness tempered with a strong dose of forgiveness2.

According to Jalili, Larijani declared, "Parliament is the refuge of people and as MPs we must listen to the complaints of everyone and try to address and solve the issues....Today society needs peace and calm but foreign media is attempting to inflame our society."

0715 GMT: Preparing for the 40th Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of Neda Agha-Soltan three days before the "40th Day" memorial/rally on 30 July. Karroubi expressed his sympathy to Neda's mother, "None of us knows our fate or destiny and none can say what events are awaiting us....The dear child that lost her life was the ultimate symbol of being innocent and being wronged, [her death] had a huge effect both inside and outside Iran. Neda's death loudly proclaimed the fact that the Iranian people are being oppressed and at the same time prevented further injustices and hopefully will have great beneficial effects upon the current and future life of [the Iranian] people."

Neda's mother complained about the statements of Ayatollah Seyed Ahmed Khatami, leading Friday prayers in Tehran, and Ezatullah Zarghami, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, "As if the death of Neda was not enough for me, one of these two called my child an actress and claimed that her death was 'generated by a computer', and the other claimed her to be an actress [faking her death]." She concluded, "Neda, like thousands of other young people, cared for the fate of her country, she like other young people protested the results of the election."

0645 GMT: The Meeting of the Ayatollahs. Meanwhile, the negotiations between the Green Movement and the clerics of Qoms are proceeding. BBC Persian reports, via the website of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri,that he has been discussing "issues regarding religious law and politics " with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili and Grand Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri-Zanjani.

The details of the meeting, taking place at the summer residence of Montazeri in the village of Khaveh, have not been announced. However, BBC Persian implies that the Grand Ayatollahs are now considering the open letter of Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi and other reformists for intervention on detainees. (Yesterday we summarised the first open response to the letter, offered by Ayatollah Yousef Sanei.)

The roles of Montazeri and Mousavi-Ardebili, who have both been critical of the Government during the post-election crisis, are not surprising. However, Shobeiri-Zanjani has not stated his position, and he is a long-time friend of the Supreme Leader. Therefore, religious analyst Hassan Shariatmadari speculates on BBC Persian that Shobeiri-Zanjani may be conveying messages from Khamenei asking for a solution to growing problems.

Iran: English Text of Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi Letter to Grand Ayatollahs (25 July)

The Latest from Iran (27 July): A President Dangling in the Wind?

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UPDATE (27 July, 1900 GMT): Ayatollah Yousuf Sanei has offered the first response to the letter:

The people according the the constitution must be in charge of their fate. Therefore we must move in a direction that logic, freedom of speech, honesty and defending human rights will replace oppression, perfidy, injustice, and torture --- concepts that are the results of selfish and autocratic and unpopular governments. Unfortunately....we have been witnessing the defamation, perfidy, imprisonment, oppression, torture, and even killing of those people who have peacefully demonstrated to defend their rights.

Therefore, due to the necessity that is religiously incumbent upon me to prevent the tyranny of oppressors, I declare to all individuals who are responsible (either by participation or causation) of subjecting the people to killings, brutal physical violence, imprisonment and torture in prisons..that oppressing people that have only God to defend them qualifies as one of the worst kinds of mortal sin....and all such individuals must repent and try to obtain the forgiveness of those whom they have oppressed...and in fact attend to the kindly advice of Ayatollah Rafsanjani...so that the Government does not add any more sins to its already heavy conscience....I also would like to reiterate to you [Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi], and all beloved citizens of Islamic Iran both within and without the country, and to all of those that are trying to provide a conduit so that the voice of the protesters to the election can be heard: do not let the pressures, violence and suppressions to cause you to lose heart and thereby allow the will of the oppressors to happen....

I thank God for the fact that you gentlemen by maintaining a united front...have been able concurrently to attract the support of the people especially that of the younger generation....[Your efforts] in defending the rights of humanity and popular governance will leave a long lasting mark in society.

On Saturday, our correspondent Mani broke the news (0900 GMT): "In an open letter, a number of reformist politicians led by Mohammad Khatami, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have asked the Grand Ayatollahs of Qom to remind 'relevant segments of the establishment' of 'the dire consequences” of their 'anti-legal methodologies'. The letter asks the Grand Ayatollahs to intervene to free the current post-election detainees."

Subsequently, Keeping the Change evaluated: “Should the Reformists be able to win over a majority of the marjahs [high-ranking clerics], it…would constitute the serious religiously-based challenge to the regime’s behavior that the Reformists have been after, but have heretofore been unable to obtain.”

The English translation of the letter, provided by Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful

To the honourable grand Marjahs (may God keep them for us):

Greetings. As you are aware, at the same time as the announcement of the results of the tenth presidential election, an extensive wave of arrests of many campaign activists from the non-governmental candidates as well as citizens who took part in the peaceful demonstrations started, which in its continuation, because of the expansion of the people’s objections to the various and extensive violations that happened before, during and after the election, has increased and is still ongoing. The individual or group arrests of the people in different social classes such as University professors, political activists and journalists, without the legal warrant and by violent confrontations and use of interrogation methods that are reminiscence of the dark days of Shah’s ruling, which most of the individuals signing this letter were for several times victims of them during those days, under no circumstances is and will be appropriate for a government and a country that claims to have established justice and fairness, and will taint Islamic Republic’s face in hearts and spirits of every Iranian and in world spotlight.

Even more disastrous is the fact that the security systems are insisting on proving their fictional and completely wrong theories for introducing the activists as foreign agents or intriguers of velvet revolution, and for this reason have committed to unlawful, unethical and illegitimate attempts to get confessions. The governmental propaganda tools and especially IRIB (the state-run televisions and radios) are taking part in this project and by presenting staged confessions try to prove such imaginary accusations against the movement of the people which has formed only to protect the “republic” in the government. These days the worried families, left unaware of the fate of their loved ones whom their only crime is having had an active role in the campaigns of the non-governmental candidates, are facing closed doors in their repeated inquiries to the officials. The conspirator organizations have elevated the situation to a degree that are portraying membership in the campaigns as an unforgivable crime; and this is despite the fact the departed founder of the Revolution (Imam Khomeini) and the high-ranked officials of the government have encouraged and approved such activities. Really based on what legal, religious or logical principle can one explain the practice of repeated torture against those who live under the protection of Islam? And with silence in front of all this violence and cruelty, how can one brag about the kindness of the government that has set the religion of Mohammad as its guidance? These days receiving disturbing news about the physical and mental health of several of the detainees has added to the uncertainties. The principle of being innocent [until proven guilty] and avoiding prejudgment are easily overlooked (“Judging the trusted by relying on the assumption is against justice”) and violating the rights stated in the constitution and ordinary laws has become routine and of course will have no outcome other than elevating public mistrust and distancing them from the government. These uncertainties and anxieties have shadowed over the lives of a large number of Iranian citizens; and because of the practice of illegal means and the narcissism of the security forces on one hand and the patriotism and loyalty to the Islamic Republic as well as reluctance toward petitioning to the international authorities on the other hand, have created a very difficult situation for the families of the prisoners.

The only way out of this situation is clear and strong action for stopping the militarization of the environment after the election, cutting off the hands of irresponsible agents, releasing all detainees and returning the process of investigation of the accusations to its legal course. We plea to you, the Maraje, as being the reference and support of the great nation of Iran, to remind the government about the damaging outcomes of their unlawful acts and warn them about the expansion of oppression in the Islamic Republic. All this was mentioned in accordance with the words of the Imam of justice that “people will not improve unless the government does, and the government won’t improve unless by the persistence of people” and we call almighty God as our witness that we are not thinking about anything other than the improvement in the affairs of the country and the people.

With wishing you peace and the kindness of God and his blessings

Seyyed Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karoubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Morteza Alviri, Seyyed Kazem Akrami, Rahim Abolhasani, Mahnaz Azarnia, Ahmadipour, Jamshid Ansari, Seyyed Hashem Aghajari, Mohsen Armin, Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad, Saeed Bigdeli, Mohammad Bagherian, Mohsen Beheshti-Seresht, Behnam Bohloumi, Ali Bagheri, Hasan Bigham, Alireza Beheshti-Shirazi, Mohammad-Reza Tajik, Mohammad Taghikhani, Mohsen Tarkashvand, Mohammad-Ali Tofighi, Mehdi Tahaghoghi, Abed Jafari, Seyyed Mohammad-Reza Hosseini-Beheshti, Seyyed Ali-Reza Hosseini-Beheshti, Najafgholi Habibi, Ali-Mohammad Hazeri, Seyyed Mahmoud Hosseini, Farhad Darvish-Setalani, Abdolreza Rokneldin-Eftekhari, Mohsen Rahami, Mohammad Rahimian, Masoud Roughani-Zanjani, Ali Zamani, Saeed Semnanian, Ali Saee, Mohammad Salamati, Gholamreza Shah-Hosseini, Mohammad Shahrestanaki, Mahmoud Sadeghi, Hosein Sadeghi, Abdollah Tootian, Gholamreza Zarifian, Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi, Ali Arabmazar-Yazdi, Ali-Akbar Enayati, Hassan Azimi, Seyyed Nour-Mohammad Aghili, Abas Abdi, Mohammad-Reza Ali-Hosseini, Faramarz Falahi, Mohammad Farhadi, Hossein Forotan, Abolfazl Ghadiani, Mohammad-Kazem Kouhi, Abolfazl Kazazi, Farshad Moumeni, Abas Manouchehri, Mohammad Moghadam, Ali Mohades, Hossein Mortazavi, Hamid Mirzadeh, Korous Nik-Niayee, Abdollah Naseri, Mohammad-Ali Najafi, Seyyed Hashem Hedayati, Abas Yazdanfar.

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0630 GMT (26 July): An apology for an exaggeration in the previous entry. The editor of Kayhan did not apologise for the publication of Khamenei's letter; however, he regretted calling First Vice President Rahim-Mashai an "agent of the velvet coup" and claiming that President Ahmadinejad had abandoned the line of the Supreme Leader".

The interpretation, therefore, is not of a Presidential fightback but of a (token) face-saver for Ahmadinejad so he can return to his proper (now very limited) Presidential role in the current political battle.

2120 GMT: A Presidential Fightback? Evening news is dominated by the "United4Iran" demonstrations in 100+ cities across the world, but one intriguing development on the homefront. Ahmadinejad's advisors, through Press Secretary Ali Akbar Javanfekr,  have been criticising the media for publishing the Supreme Leader's letter about Vice President Rahim-Mashai yesterday.

They may have had some effect. This evening. the editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, appeared to apologise for the public attention given to the Khamenei order.


1720 GMT: The Opposition Politicians and Qom. More on the important news of the day, the Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi letter to Grand Ayatollahs asking them to intervene to free detainees. Keeping the Change has an incisive analysis on both the immediate issue and the wider significance: "Should the Reformists be able to win over a majority of the marjahs [high-ranking clerics], it...would constitute the serious religiously-based challenge to the regime's behavior that the Reformists have been after, but have heretofore been unable to obtain."

1715 GMT: The Confessions Pressure Escalates. Allaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Parliamentary commission on national security and foreign policy has also stated his objections to broadcasting the confessions of detainees. Boroujerdi said that, during the meeting of this committee last week with Minister of Intelligence Ejeie, the minister stated "that legal issues make this broadcasting impractical".

1605 GMT: The Next Achilles' Heel? Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has stated: "If the confessions of the detainees are to be broadcast, all instances in which the interrogators have broken the law during the process which sometimes has lead to fatalities must also be investigated".

The statement, echoing the clerical fatwas of Ayatollah Sanei and Bayat-Zanjani, continues, "If these confessions were obtained under normal conditions they would have a useful role in enlightening the public, however, if they are obtained under irregularites they have no use at all....It is possible that the arrests themselves may be legal, but the important issue is whether the detainees have been treated according to islamic regulations, and have they been subjected to mental and physical pressures....We all must uphold the law and try to improve the current situation."

The significance is that Motahari, like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, is considered a "principlist", the political bloc in Iran distinct from both "conservative" and "reformist" factions. With clerical pressure on the Government increasing, this could be an indication that some outside the Green Movement will be focusing on detentions and interrogations to demand changes in the system.

1600 GMT: Defending the Nation. The lead Iran story on Press TV's website today has been the statement by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari: "Iranian missiles have the capacity to target Israeli soil if the Zionist regime commits such stupidity including its nuclear sites."

I am sure that the content and timing of Jafari's statement have nothing to do whatsoever with the domestic blows to the Ahmadinejad Presidency, with which the Revolutionary Guard has been closely associated, in the last 48 hours.

1545 GMT: Reports of protests, and action by security forces to break them up, in Vanak and Azadi Squares in Tehran.

1340 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff have vigorously denied any contact with foreign embassies over Iran's post-election conflict. The allegation was made on Friday both by Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the leader of Tehran's prayers.

1330 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Yazdan Panah, a journalist and member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released from detention.

1035 GMT: I am in the midst of an interesting and challenging discussion with Kevin Sullivan of Real Clear World, sparked by a column by Joe Klein of Time. Which should come first: a focus on Iran and the nuclear issue or consideration of the internal political dynamics between the Government and the post-election Green Movement?

0950 GMT: How serious was the argument over the First Vice President? The head of Iran's armed forces, Major General Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, had written President Ahmadinejad to ask for Rahim-Mashai's dismissal.

0935 GMT: The resignation letter of former First Vice President Rahim-Mashai has been published. Ahmadinejad's response has also appeared: " I had hoped that with the elimination of some negative pressure, you could remain in the First Deputy position."

0900 GMT: Our correspondent Mani sends in important news:

In an open letter, a number of reformist politicians led by Mohammad Khatami, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have asked the Grand Ayatollahs of Qom to remind "relevant segments of the establishment" of "the dire consequences" of their "anti-legal methodologies". The letter asks the Grand Ayatollahs to intervene to free the current post-election detainees.

The reformist politicians, stating that arrests have been done with "no legal justification" and have "blackened the name of the Islamic Republic both within Iran and abroad", declare, "The only solution to this situation would include the following: A clear and serious effort to stop the post-election atmosphere of fear and coercion caused by the increased presence of security forces, freeing all detainees, and restoration of the mechanisms by which the accusations of election irregulariites can be legally addressed."

They add, "The families of the detainees have been stonewalled by officials when they have tried to obtain legal recourse; this has caused many problems for these families". The "disturbing news" regarding the physical and mental well-being of the prisoners has exacerbated the level of anxiety already felt by these families.

The authors also challenge state media, calling Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting "the propaganda machine of the coerced confessions project". IRIB, "by broadcasting staged confessions, is attempting to prove spurious charges that have been made against a popular movement".

0725 GMT: Protests are being held in more than 100 cities across the world today in support of the Green Movement. Information is available on the United4Iran website.

0720 GMT: Amidst the uncertainty over how many of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts have turned against Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0645 GMT), one has made his position clear. Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Akbar Qoreyshi has written an open letter criticising Rafsanjani for not separating himself from the post-election opposition: “After the Leader’s strong defense [of you] in his Friday Prayers sermon, I told you in a letter that the leader’s defense had solved everything and it would be best that you apologize to him and tell the nation that you have nothing to do with your child or children’s actions....Unfortunately my letter was ignored.”

0710 GMT: More on Karroubi and Iran's Security Forces (see 0645 GMT). Mehdi Karroubi has criticized the treatment of detainees by the security forces in an open letter to Minister of Information Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie. Karroubi said recent information from reliable sources caused him deep concern about the conditions of confinement and demanded that Ejeie, carrying out his responsibilities, identify all parties responsible for recent horrific events and asserts that this is the minister's responsibility.

Karroubi, adidng that the withholding of information from the families of detainees is also a cause for great concern, concluded that it is a sorry state of affairs that citizens are treated so poorly by an Islamic Government.

0645 GMT: A relatively quiet Friday sprang into life during the afternoon with the emerging opposition, not only from the Supreme Leader but from across "conservative" ranks, to President Ahmadinejad over the Vice-Presidential appointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Ahmadinejad's capitulation last night is so significant that we've covered it in a separate analysis.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Yousef Sanei has extended his public support of the protest movement with a fatwa moving religious blame from the detainee to the Iranian authorities:

1) If you are under arrest, coerced and put under extreme pressure and forced to make a false confession to stop torture, your false confession is not a sin. However, those responsible for such methods have committed a sin;
2) Confessions that are obtained under duress and torture have absolutely no validity in an Islamic court;
3) Under Islamic and Shia law, interminable interrogations, especially those done arround midnight, are absolutely forbidden.

Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has issued a fatwa condemning the behaviour of the security forces towards Mehdi Karroubi as he arrived at Friday prayers in Tehran last week. In an incident picked up in widely-distributed photographs, Iranian police jostled Karroubi, knocking off his turban.

Covering the other side of the clerical debate, Keeping the Change digs into this week's supposed declaration of the 86-member Assembly of Experts reaffirming support of the Supreme Leader and, more importantly, seeking the dismissal of Hashemi Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly. The analysis notes the discrepancy between only 16 signatures and state media's claim that 50 clerics (in other words, a majority) support the declaration. In contrast to our own interpretation that this is a power-play by an important pro-regime minority on the Assembly, Keeping the Change concludes:

Many of the Assembly's members owe their positions to Khamanei and have deep loyalties to the Supreme Leader. For them to support the letter, while withholding their names, may be a compromise position that suits both their political passivity and their fidelity to Khamanei.

Iran: A Clerical Front Against the Supreme Leader?

Iran: Your Easy-to-Use Ayatollah Scorecard
The Latest from Iran (24 July): Waiting for the Next Move

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The Arabic-language newspaper Asharq al-Awsat is reporting today, based on statements from "a prominent member of the reformist party" that there is now a co-ordinated move amongst leading clerics against not only the Government but also the authority of the Supreme Leader.

The source claims, "The Grand Ayatollahs of Iran, such as Ayatollahs Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani, Montazeri and Javadi-Amoli, as well as other high-ranking clerics such as Ayatollah Rafsanjani, Seyed Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi and "businessmen, intellectuals, and eminent thinkers", have started a new movement. The goal of this movement is not limited to questioning the legality of this recent election and condemning the recent violence that the government has commited upon the protesters, but aims to question the legality of Khamenei's position as the supreme leader, thereby neutralizing him."

The confidential source also asserts that Mohammad Khatami's suggestion of a referendum on the post-election legitimacy of the Government must have the tacit support of these Grand Ayatollahs. The reformist activist adds, "In recent days the political activities of these individuals has undergone a major increase."

There are numerous reasons for caution with this story. It is based on a single confidential source, making verification almost impossible. Much of the Arabic-language media is hostile to the Iranian Government. (The English-language version of Asharq al-Awsat does not carry the story, although it has written about "a fight for power within the ruling religious establishment itself".) On the substance of the story, the protest of individual clerics over the Government's conduct is far different from the more substantial step of forging an activist front, and a challenge to Ayatollah Khameini is far beyond fatwas criticising the President. And, even if the story is true, the question remains whether the group of ayatollahs named can gather more support from bodies like the Assembly of Experts, given that pro-Government clerics such as Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi can still put out statements of support for Khamenei (and denunciation of Rafsanjani) in the Assembly's name.

Still, the Grand Ayatollahs listed have come out in support of the demonstrations (Javadi-Amoli has been listed by other reliable outlets as "relatively neutral", but our own information indicates he is critical of the Government --- see "Easy-to-Use Ayatollah Scorecard"). It is not only a case of the longer that this crisis goes on, the more scope there is for higher-profile protest; recent steps such as the argument over the appointment of the First Vice President, Rahim-Mashai, and the lack of flexibility in the Supreme Leader's statements offer a foundation for further challenges.

I wouldn't go as far as Asharq al-Awsat to frame this as a challenge to the "legality" of Ayatollah Khamenei, but he may soon be facing the choice of distancing himself from the President (and accepting at least limited "reform) or of preparing himself for the biggest fight of his 20 years as Supreme Leader.

Iran: Your Easy-to-Use Ayatollah Scorecard

The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

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Amidst much discussion, including on Enduring America, about the position of clerics in the post-election conflict, the excellent Tehran Bureau has compiled a list of the positions of ayatollahs who have made their views known publicly. Six Grand Ayatollahs have made statements supporting demonstrations, two have been neutral, and one opposed. Amongst Ayatollahs, eight (including Hashemi Rafsanjan) have been supportive of at least some opposition demands, two neutral, and seven opposed. (Note: Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, who wrote an open letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani today, can be added to the list of supporters of the protest movement):

Since protests erupted in Iran after its disputed Presidential election, a growing number of influential Shia clerics have made statements in favor of the protesters.

Grand Ayatollahs in Support of Protesters (in alphabetical order)

Though an exact list is hard to come by, experts agree that there are only a few dozen Grand Ayatollahs now living. Shia clerics earn the title of Grand Ayatollah through years of study, publishing papers and books on theological subjects, and gathering thousands or even hundreds of thousands of followers. Literally translated, grand ayatollah, or marja taqlid, means “source of emulation.”

Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili: “We do not have to pacify the protest by force,” said Ardabili in a meeting in late June with the Guardian Council, according to widely-quoted story from the Iranian Labour News Agency. “Let the people decide who is right and who is not.” Ardabili was a close and senior aid to Ayatollah Khomeini, and was the head of the Judicial system of Iran until Khomeini,’s death. He also established Mofid University.

Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani issued a fatwa July 12 calling the elections illegitimate. On July 6 he said, “Every healthy mind casts doubt on the way the election was held… “More regrettable are post-election large-scale arrests, newspaper censorship and website filtering, and above all the martyrdom of our countrymen whom they describe as rioters,” according to a story in the Los Angeles Times. Bayat-Zanjani’s Farsi-language website has recently been filled with almost daily statements like these. Bayat-Zanjani is a former chancellor of Tehran University.

Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani called the election results announced by the government “a grand lie,” according to a June 30 story in Le Monde. Golpayegani, who was the first Secretary-General of the Guardian Council after the Revolution, met with some members of the Council and reportedly expressed regrets for what had happened.

Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri: A pro-Ahmadinijad website claimed July 13 that Montazeri suffers “severe memory disorders” and asks who has written statements attributed to the Grand Ayatollah. Montazeri responded by posting a photograph of a statement in his own handwriting on his website. On July 12, Montazeri wrote a fatwa calling the regime “un-Islamic.” He went on to say: “Injustice is the intentional opposition to the teachings of religion, the foundations of reasonableness, and rationality, and the national accords and consensus that have become the laws of the land. The ruler who opposes these is no longer qualified to rule.” He posted a July 8 statement to: “Protest the improper performance of official repression.” He has also called for three days of mourning for the death of Neda Agha-Soltan and other protesters. He has also said that, “No one in their right mind” could believe the election results,” in a statement issued June 16. Montazeri’s support for this June’s protesters is important but hardly surprising. Once the hand-picked successor to former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, Montazeri lost favor after protesting the executions of political prisoners in the late 1980s and spent years under house arrest in the holy city of Qom after criticizing the current Supreme Leader.

Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei: “Everyone in the past days witnessed the attacks… that maimed, murdered, and caged any number of children,” said Saanei according to a translation of a July 3 statement on his website. Saanei had already expressed his “sympathy with the families of the victims of the recent disasters.” A confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, Saanei retired as the head of the Guardian Council in 1988. More recently, he issued a fatwa in which he declared suicide bombing as haram and a ‘terrorist act.’

Grand Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri called the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “illegitimate” and “tyrannical,” according to a July 1 story from Radio Free Europe. He also said the regime’s actions are sending the Islamic Republic “to a museum.” Like Montazeri, Taheri is also a powerful cleric with a history of protest. One of Ayatollah Khomeini’s close friends and former Friday prayer leader of the city of Isfahan, he resigned his post in 2002 in protest over government corruption, the house-arrest of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and the actions of militias he called club-wielding vigilantes.

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