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Saturday
Jul252009

The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

NEW Iran Video: Zahra Rahnavard on Her Detained Brother
NEW A Turning Point in Iran: The Eclipse of the President
NEW Iran Timeline: How the Supreme Leader Vanquished His President
Iran: How the “New Media” Tore Down the Gates of the “Mainstream”
The Latest from Iran (24 July): Waiting for the Next Move

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IRAN GREEN

0630 GMT (26 July): An apology for an exaggeration in the previous entry. The editor of Kayhan did not apologise for the publication of Khamenei's letter; however, he regretted calling First Vice President Rahim-Mashai an "agent of the velvet coup" and claiming that President Ahmadinejad had abandoned the line of the Supreme Leader".

The interpretation, therefore, is not of a Presidential fightback but of a (token) face-saver for Ahmadinejad so he can return to his proper (now very limited) Presidential role in the current political battle.

2120 GMT: A Presidential Fightback? Evening news is dominated by the "United4Iran" demonstrations in 100+ cities across the world, but one intriguing development on the homefront. Ahmadinejad's advisors, through Press Secretary Ali Akbar Javanfekr,  have been criticising the media for publishing the Supreme Leader's letter about Vice President Rahim-Mashai yesterday.

They may have had some effect. This evening. the editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, appeared to apologise for the public attention given to the Khamenei order.


1720 GMT: The Opposition Politicians and Qom. More on the important news of the day, the Khatami-Mousavi-Karroubi letter to Grand Ayatollahs asking them to intervene to free detainees. Keeping the Change has an incisive analysis on both the immediate issue and the wider significance: "Should the Reformists be able to win over a majority of the marjahs [high-ranking clerics], it...would constitute the serious religiously-based challenge to the regime's behavior that the Reformists have been after, but have heretofore been unable to obtain."

1715 GMT: The Confessions Pressure Escalates. Allaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Parliamentary commission on national security and foreign policy has also stated his objections to broadcasting the confessions of detainees. Boroujerdi said that, during the meeting of this committee last week with Minister of Intelligence Ejeie, the minister stated "that legal issues make this broadcasting impractical".

1605 GMT: The Next Achilles' Heel? Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has stated: "If the confessions of the detainees are to be broadcast, all instances in which the interrogators have broken the law during the process which sometimes has lead to fatalities must also be investigated".

The statement, echoing the clerical fatwas of Ayatollah Sanei and Bayat-Zanjani, continues, "If these confessions were obtained under normal conditions they would have a useful role in enlightening the public, however, if they are obtained under irregularites they have no use at all....It is possible that the arrests themselves may be legal, but the important issue is whether the detainees have been treated according to islamic regulations, and have they been subjected to mental and physical pressures....We all must uphold the law and try to improve the current situation."

The significance is that Motahari, like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, is considered a "principlist", the political bloc in Iran distinct from both "conservative" and "reformist" factions. With clerical pressure on the Government increasing, this could be an indication that some outside the Green Movement will be focusing on detentions and interrogations to demand changes in the system.

1600 GMT: Defending the Nation. The lead Iran story on Press TV's website today has been the statement by Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari: "Iranian missiles have the capacity to target Israeli soil if the Zionist regime commits such stupidity including its nuclear sites."

I am sure that the content and timing of Jafari's statement have nothing to do whatsoever with the domestic blows to the Ahmadinejad Presidency, with which the Revolutionary Guard has been closely associated, in the last 48 hours.

1545 GMT: Reports of protests, and action by security forces to break them up, in Vanak and Azadi Squares in Tehran.

1340 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's staff have vigorously denied any contact with foreign embassies over Iran's post-election conflict. The allegation was made on Friday both by Minister of Intelligence Ejeie and Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the leader of Tehran's prayers.

1330 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Yazdan Panah, a journalist and member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released from detention.

1035 GMT: I am in the midst of an interesting and challenging discussion with Kevin Sullivan of Real Clear World, sparked by a column by Joe Klein of Time. Which should come first: a focus on Iran and the nuclear issue or consideration of the internal political dynamics between the Government and the post-election Green Movement?

0950 GMT: How serious was the argument over the First Vice President? The head of Iran's armed forces, Major General Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, had written President Ahmadinejad to ask for Rahim-Mashai's dismissal.

0935 GMT: The resignation letter of former First Vice President Rahim-Mashai has been published. Ahmadinejad's response has also appeared: " I had hoped that with the elimination of some negative pressure, you could remain in the First Deputy position."

0900 GMT: Our correspondent Mani sends in important news:
In an open letter, a number of reformist politicians led by Mohammad Khatami, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have asked the Grand Ayatollahs of Qom to remind "relevant segments of the establishment" of "the dire consequences" of their "anti-legal methodologies". The letter asks the Grand Ayatollahs to intervene to free the current post-election detainees.

The reformist politicians, stating that arrests have been done with "no legal justification" and have "blackened the name of the Islamic Republic both within Iran and abroad", declare, "The only solution to this situation would include the following: A clear and serious effort to stop the post-election atmosphere of fear and coercion caused by the increased presence of security forces, freeing all detainees, and restoration of the mechanisms by which the accusations of election irregulariites can be legally addressed."

They add, "The families of the detainees have been stonewalled by officials when they have tried to obtain legal recourse; this has caused many problems for these families". The "disturbing news" regarding the physical and mental well-being of the prisoners has exacerbated the level of anxiety already felt by these families.

The authors also challenge state media, calling Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting "the propaganda machine of the coerced confessions project". IRIB, "by broadcasting staged confessions, is attempting to prove spurious charges that have been made against a popular movement".

0725 GMT: Protests are being held in more than 100 cities across the world today in support of the Green Movement. Information is available on the United4Iran website.

0720 GMT: Amidst the uncertainty over how many of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts have turned against Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0645 GMT), one has made his position clear. Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Akbar Qoreyshi has written an open letter criticising Rafsanjani for not separating himself from the post-election opposition: “After the Leader’s strong defense [of you] in his Friday Prayers sermon, I told you in a letter that the leader’s defense had solved everything and it would be best that you apologize to him and tell the nation that you have nothing to do with your child or children’s actions....Unfortunately my letter was ignored.”

0710 GMT: More on Karroubi and Iran's Security Forces (see 0645 GMT). Mehdi Karroubi has criticized the treatment of detainees by the security forces in an open letter to Minister of Information Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie. Karroubi said recent information from reliable sources caused him deep concern about the conditions of confinement and demanded that Ejeie, carrying out his responsibilities, identify all parties responsible for recent horrific events and asserts that this is the minister's responsibility.

Karroubi, adidng that the withholding of information from the families of detainees is also a cause for great concern, concluded that it is a sorry state of affairs that citizens are treated so poorly by an Islamic Government.

0645 GMT: A relatively quiet Friday sprang into life during the afternoon with the emerging opposition, not only from the Supreme Leader but from across "conservative" ranks, to President Ahmadinejad over the Vice-Presidential appointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Ahmadinejad's capitulation last night is so significant that we've covered it in a separate analysis.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Yousef Sanei has extended his public support of the protest movement with a fatwa moving religious blame from the detainee to the Iranian authorities:

1) If you are under arrest, coerced and put under extreme pressure and forced to make a false confession to stop torture, your false confession is not a sin. However, those responsible for such methods have committed a sin;
2) Confessions that are obtained under duress and torture have absolutely no validity in an Islamic court;
3) Under Islamic and Shia law, interminable interrogations, especially those done arround midnight, are absolutely forbidden.

Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri has issued a fatwa condemning the behaviour of the security forces towards Mehdi Karroubi as he arrived at Friday prayers in Tehran last week. In an incident picked up in widely-distributed photographs, Iranian police jostled Karroubi, knocking off his turban.

Covering the other side of the clerical debate, Keeping the Change digs into this week's supposed declaration of the 86-member Assembly of Experts reaffirming support of the Supreme Leader and, more importantly, seeking the dismissal of Hashemi Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly. The analysis notes the discrepancy between only 16 signatures and state media's claim that 50 clerics (in other words, a majority) support the declaration. In contrast to our own interpretation that this is a power-play by an important pro-regime minority on the Assembly, Keeping the Change concludes:
Many of the Assembly's members owe their positions to Khamanei and have deep loyalties to the Supreme Leader. For them to support the letter, while withholding their names, may be a compromise position that suits both their political passivity and their fidelity to Khamanei.
Saturday
Jul252009

Latest Iran Video: Zahra Rahnavard, Vanak Square Protests

The Latest from Iran (26 July): United in Protest?
The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

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25 July: Tehran Demonstrations at Night

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sK4VXaOSPI[/youtube]

25 July: Tehran "Down with the Dictator!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLPlYKqdRSI[/youtube]

25 July: Vanak Square, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpuvx7kGoQ8[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/user/IranYouth#play/all/uploads-all/1/O0FFgsgoWso[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/user/IranYouth#play/all/uploads-all/0/KhyXp_I3gQQ[/youtube]

24 July: Zahra Rahnavard, wife of Mir Hossein Mosavi, on Detained Brother (in Farsi)


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cvwwtu0pow[/youtube]
Saturday
Jul252009

A Turning Point in Iran: The Eclipse of the President

Iran Timeline: How the Supreme Leader Vanquished His President
The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

AHMADINEJADMahmoud Ahmadinejad is now President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in little more than name. Last night's dramatic turn of events, with the First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "resigning", was the most public of humiliations for Ahmadinejad, even if many in the non-Iranian media were slow to figure out what had occurred.

We were saying as early as 16 June that the President was a relatively weak actor in the post-election play. His position was almost completely dependent on the Supreme Leader's decision to declare his electoral "victory", and after his far too-bold declaration of triumph over the "dust" of his opposition on 13-14 June, he quickly disappeared from the central stage. There were halting attempts to regain some authority,  such as a national television address and an appearance in Mashaad, but these turned from serious political drama into farce. (In retrospect, the moment when a Giant Mysterious Bug defeated Ahmadinejad during his TV speech may be the symbolic moment when the President was put in his place, although the YouTube video of Mahmoud and his Multi-Coloured Charts should not be missed, either.)

Many in the media, however, especially in the "West", relied upon the simple formula of Supreme Leader + President = Regime, thus missing the reality of Ahmadinejad's parlous situation. Thus, it was only yesterday, when many journalists belatedly noticed Ayatollah Khamenei's opposition to the Rahim-Mashai appointment, that the President's weakness was exposed. This was not just a case of a Supreme Leader slapdown; Ahmadinejad had alienated a large number of his political and religious supporters. "Conservative" politicians, members of parliaments, senior clerices, and even students in the Basiji movement were publicly insisting that the Vice President be dismissed as soon as possible.

So exit Stage Right, Mahmoud, for your loss is our gain. With the apparent resolution of this dispute within the regime, the battlefront again becomes the extent of the opposition's challenge to the regime. Does the Green Movement and powerful figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani concentrate on the continued pounding of Ahmadinejad into "dust" or do they go further, calling for institutional change to reduce the Presidency to near-vassal status? I doubt that will be the case (no least because one Hashemi Rafsanjani may still have Presidential ambitions, either for himself or a close ally, as does one Mir Hossein Mousavi).

So how do the opposition leaders re-position the Presidency in relation to the Supreme Leader? And will the activists in the Movement, both behind the scenes and on the street, accept the extent of the reform?

Put bluntly, will the weakening of the President now lead to the prospect of the weakening of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
Saturday
Jul252009

Iran Timeline: How the Supreme Leader Vanquished His President

A Turning Point in Iran: The Eclipse of the President
The Latest from Iran (25 July): A President Retreats

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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

AHMADINEJAD KHAMENEIYour cut-out-and-keep guide to the final victory of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the dispute over the appointment of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai:

1502 in Tehran (1032 GMT): Iranian Students News Agency posts Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami's address at Friday prayers in Tehran.

1745 Tehran (1315 GMT): Iranian press summarises Khatami address. Two sentences stand out: "I wish the President would accept the friendly criticisms of his friends. We consider this government to be legitimate and we support it, however it is our kindly and supportive concern for the president that leads us to request him to reconsider his decision."

2011 Tehran (1541 GMT): Khabar Online publishes a response form Ahmadinejad's Press Secretary, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, denying that the Supreme Leader has given the President a directive ordering the dismissal of the First Vice President:
Mr Ahmadinejad is a strong arm of the Supreme Leader for serving the higher ideals of the people and the establishment, however some individuals are attempting to break this useful and competent arm. Amongst those who are against Mashai's installment, there are individuals for whom Mashai is irrelevant and their goal is to break the will of the President. Experience has proven that the president and Mr. Ahmadinejad's government defer to the supreme leader and if the Supreme Leader sends a directive we will obviously obey.

Is it the job of the Deputy Speaker of Parliament or the Speaker of Friday Prayers to deliver these directives to the President?....Whenever the Supreme Leader wishes to make his opinion known he announces it personally or he sends a directive missive from his office....If the Supreme Leader has this opinion, the problem will be resolved by consultations.

2041 Tehran (1611 GMT): The official text of Khamenei's order, written five days earlier, to Ahmadinejad is published in Fars News. Publication follows in Tabnak ( 2050). Khabar Online (2113), and Etemade Melli (2210).

The publication of the statement sends the message to the President: You are dishonest, as it has been five days since you received this order.

Midnight Tehran (1930 GMT): A reader sends Enduring America an urgent e-mail. Fars News is reporting the statement of Ahmadinejad's senior assistant: Rahim-Mashai has resigned as First Vice President.
Saturday
Jul252009

US to Israel: No Bargain on Jerusalem

JJERUSALEM SETTLEMENTS

The pressure on Israel has gradually increased since the advent of the Obama Administration. Now the position of Washington on the matter of Jerusalem is clear and precise: there will be no bargaining over the future status of the city.

After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that "Jerusalem would never be divided" in May and that "Israel's sovereignty in Jerusalem was not up for debate,” Israel's definitive statement came in Sunday's cabinet meeting. Netanyahu said: "United Jerusalem is the capital of the Jewish people and the State of Israel. Our sovereignty in it is not subject to appeal, and among other things, this means that Jerusalem residents can buy apartments anywhere in the city. We cannot accept the idea that Jews should not have the right to live and buy anywhere in Jerusalem."

Yesterday, a response came from Washington as Tel Aviv prepared for the E1 Project, the construction of 3,500 housing units in an areabetween Jerusalem and the West Bank settlement of Ma'aleh Adumim. The US administration stated that any change in the status quo in E1 would be "extremely damaging", even "corrosive."

The Obama Administration is rightly worried that such a construction would divide the West Bank into two parts and would strengthen Israel's hegemony in East Jerusalem. This would mean more than damage to US credibility in the region: it could render the two-state solution impossible, even with Washington's dedicated efforts as a broker.
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