Friday
Jul162010
UPDATED Iran Analysis: When "War Chatter" Poses as Journalism (Step Up, Time Magazine)
Friday, July 16, 2010 at 16:49 
UPDATE 1945 GMT: Gosh, couldn't have predicted this. With Western "analysts" playing up the it-could-be-war line, Iranian authorities are responding with we-will-repel-you. Revolutionary Guard Deputy Commander General Hossein Salami said, "The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps is ready to confront arrogance on both national and global levels....[Missiles] are being produced locally and without any limitations and are ready to strike regional targets with any quantity and quality."I generally try these days to avoid slaps at US pundits because --- however ill-informed or ill-judged the commentary --- the effort is a diversion from the important issues.
Unfortunately, there are times when superficial, speculative ponderings are puffed-up as important revelations, and there are times when those supposed revelations can do political harm as well as causing unnecessary agitation. And on those occasions, a take-down is needed to get a bit of balance and to damp down the media hysteria.
Today Joe Klein of Time is pushing a piece, "An Attack on Iran: Back on the Table". The title says it all --- Reader, Reader, Come to Me, I Will Enlighten You on Dangerous Times! --- and unfortunately it has worked with even normally-shrewd outlets such as the influential Daily Dish blog.
Unfortunately because when you peel away the onion skins of Klein's claims posing as evidence, there is no onion, let alone a likely war, left.
Here are the sources for Klein's supposed discovery: "a recently retired U.S. official" offering his personal opinion ("I began to think...."), "an Israeli military source", and....that's it. There is not one US Government official at any level, let alone a level which would have access to such sensitive discussions.
Klein tries to cover this by stretching a quote from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, "I don't think we're prepared to even talk about containing a nuclear Iran. We do not accept the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons". You'll note that this quote doesn't actually translate into "military action" and, if you check both the interview and the context, you'll find that Gates was pushing the US-led sanctions regime against Tehran.
Then there's this beauty of a piece of straw making a haystack: "Other intelligence sources say that the U.S. Army's Central Command, which is in charge of organizing military operations in the Middle East, has made some real progress in planning targeted air strikes — aided, in large part, by the vastly improved human-intelligence operations in the region."
Leave aside that "other intelligence sources" does not necessarily mean "US Government" --- Klein immediately skips to a quote from his Israeli official. Militaries make contingency plans all the time for operations. You see, that's what you do in the military: you don't sit without any provisions for land, naval, and air operations since, you know, there's something called "preparedness" if a conflict does arise.
Klein takes refuge in the one public event that has been unsettling in recent weeks, when "United Arab Emirates Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba said on July 6 that he favored a military strike against Iran despite the economic and military consequences to his country". There has been the question as to whether al-Otaiba realised he was "on the record"; more importantly, there's the larger question of whether al-Otaiba is speaking for his Government, let alone any other Arab state, let alone the United States.
So what's the big deal about one jacked-up, macho, doom-laden column? Why not let it fade into cyber-oblivion?
Well, the problem is that, in Washington circles, Joe Klein is a loud voice --- hey, did you know he was the Anonymous author of the novel Primary Colors about the Clintons? --- and others respond to the call even when the voice is saying very little that is productive. So this column might get played up as a smoke signal of what is really happening.
And even though this is not what is really happening, the beat-beat-beat of war talk will be picked up by Tehran, which will echo it as proof of Western perfidy in its attempt to maintain some vestige of internal legitimacy. If the Iranian people are scared of "them", the logic runs, then they may not interrogate why they are disillusioned with the Government.
So let's call this column now. It is not empty, even if it is near-empty of evidence. It is filled with political exaggeration which can cause nothing but trouble: Joe Klein's attention-seeking comes at the expense not of calm consideration. It also comes at the expense of recognition of the Iranian people and their concerns.
Reader Comments (38)
46 US warships headed to Costa Rica last weekend. 3 US aircraft carriers along with 8 US & 1 Israeli battleship recently went through the Suez Canal on their way to the Persian Gulf. 14 Ohio-Class submarines stationed off South Korea in the Yellow Sea facing China. Patriot missile base installed in Poland ... I guess these don't count for war preperations.
Observer -
I understand your thoughts and agree there is likely some level of planning by the military to prepare for "any option" however I do not think all of these logistical moves point directly to matter with Iran. The positioning in S. Korea may be taken as positioing with S. Koreans and missles in Poland is versus Russia.
Please see article below:
http://www.survivalistnews.com/2010/07/08/u-s-navy-evacuates-gulf/" rel="nofollow">http://www.survivalistnews.com/2010/07/08/u-s-n...
Scott,
While I appreciate the effort to avoid the diversion, I believe it was warranted here. I'm sure, unfortunately, this article is getting lots of traffic. The question becomes, how do we get a discussion such as yours next to the Time article so people in the US can make their own decisions rather than being fed one sided opinions? yes, there are opinions in US media on the other side of the fence however, realistically how many in the US seek and/or find such commentary?
Regards,
Good question Bijan77! Maybe offer the article to The Huffington Post? They LOVE pieces about this subject... "Politico's Anonymous Sources: A Lesson In Absurdity "
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/16/politicos-anonymous-sourc_n_648960.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/16/politi...
Simon Tisdall from the Guardian is fully in line with Klein: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/14/iran-israel-us-nuclear" rel="nofollow">http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/ju...
I'm not approving Klein or Tisdall, but to me the war option is on the table, and I really see no other solution:
1) the regime shows no willingness to comply with the UN demands, but continues to defy the international community,
2) the Green movement influences domestic politics only on a very low level of negative resistance. Even though its leaders may be more willing to accept the UN demands, they cling to the Islamic Republic, offering no real alternative to the international community,
3) the IRGC, who control about 60% of domestic economy, a majority of provinces, some ministries, and a series of state organisations, are acting as corporate raiders and have already managed to destroy large parts of domestic economy. In view of their falling interest rates due to sanctions, and a predictable severe economic crisis, causing popular unrest, their only solution to stay in power is of military nature.
Very obviously none of these groups is able or willing to stop these developments, but I still hope that the regime crumbles before.
Arshama
"but like I said why would Obama gamble his whole presidency by giving the order to board and inspect."
Under current conditions, I do not really see the US "boarding and inspecting" . But Iran could do something really silly. It would all be dependent on whether Iran starts pushing the boundaries and how far they go (if they do it at all - they are not completely stupid) . Kruschev once pushed the boundary right out the to big red line in Cuba.
Barry
If war option is on the table, which I completely disagree with, then let's break it down to basics?
1. Who would be in charge of organizing and executing?
2. When would this happen?
3. How would action be taken....targeted military strikes? If yes, where? who?
The military option in my opinion is a knee jerk reaction to the notion that 1) a solution can not be devised or 2) there is no patience to devise a solution.
Arshama, I may not always agree with your comments but respect them, so please help me understand how the military option is a solution to a problem.
Regards,
I am sure in this discussion of “War” or “No War”, we all agree on one thing; the sooner Islamic Republic is put out of its miserable existence, the better off are Iranians, people of ME and people of the world. And if there are readers on EA and in this discussion thread who do not agree with the above statement, they are, in my view, either a part of this Islamic fascist regime or has benefited from the chaos it has created. The following words, therefore, are not for their consumption. They do not need to read the rest of my comments.
For those who agree with the above statement, the question is how and with which method.
I do agree with Arshama’s points. The only area I part with Arshama is in the hopes she/he holds out that Islamic Republic could fall on its own. If cancer cells die on their own so would Islamic Republic. We are, therefore, left, more or less, with 3 options; 1) peaceful resistance, 2) political and economic sanctions by world community, and 3) military intervention (domestic or foreign).
1. Peaceful Resistance: Iranians have peacefully resisted this regime one way or the other in the past 31 years at very high human cost I might add. It has not worked. If anything it has made this regime more brutal.
2. Economic Sanctions: Islamic Republic has faced economic sanctions and political isolation in varying degrees in the past 30 years. These sanctions became opportunity for a few countries to rob Iranians blind. This incompetent regime has put Iran natural resources on fire sale to overcome sanctions and to buy friends. Sanctions will weaken this regime but it will take a long long time to bring this regime to its knees and that is if more countries do not join the sanction cheaters. We cannot afford to sacrifice another generation of Iranian; one is too many
3. Military option: This option though is with high cost- loss of life and destruction- has been the surest method to get rid of rouge and fascist governments. I, therefore, believe though we all dread this option- and I share that fear, we have no other viable and effective option. I believe many Iranians in Iran deep in their hearts of heart know their only way out is force; domestic or foreign military intervention.
For the first time in the past 13 months that I have been listing to a political discussion of a radio broadcasting station, one of the political activist/analyst who lives in Iran and is a frequent guest on this program and who is very very guarded in his comments (I am sure for a good reason) last Tuesday in his analysis said people not only welcomed the current economic sanctions they wanted more crippling sanctions. He then went on to say that though he personally did not favor military option, situation in Iran was so dire that if west decided to exercise military option people would support that in order to break free from the grip of Islamic Republic. He went on to say that military attack damage will be less than what they had endured for the past 30+ year under Islamic Republic. He added Iranians like people of North Korea or Cuba were hostages of their governments and for Iranians anything would be a better alternative than Islamic Republic. He also went through some historical examples in Persian history that people welcomed the invaders because that helped neutralizing the oppressive government. These words coming from this individual who goes by the name of Kaveh was so uncharacteristic and so shocking that I had to listen to it again in the archive to make sure I had heard it correctly. If you know farsi and want to listen to the referenced comments, you can go to http://www.epersianradio.com" rel="nofollow">www.epersianradio.com, click on archive, click on Saeed Ghaemmaghami, then click on Ba Hammihanan, 7-13-10 Tue. The referenced comments start at minute 44.
In summary, our academic discussion of “War” or “Not” is intellectual acrobatics at best. After all, it is one thing to hear and read about prison and prisoners abuse it is another thing to personally live it or watch suffering of your loved ones helplessly. It is one thing to hear about massive unemployment and it is another thing to be unemployed in Iran. It is one thing to hear and read about inflation and it is another thing not to be able buy life necessities like food. It is one thing to read about deadly summer heat in Tehran and it is another thing to go out of your house and be forced to cover yourself from head to toe as if there is a blistery winter day. In other word if we lived in Iran and life was being sucked out of us, we may find our words for and against “War” or any remedy for that matter a bit childish and that includes words of yours truly.
Living under Saddam Hoessine was not a better option for Iraqis. Iraq is much better off today than tit was under Saddam Hoesein. Only Khamenei and his gang will dispute that.
Come on, guys, I'm just as frustrated with the tenacity of this satanic mullah-military kleptocracy as the next person but the only thing a military attack would guarantee is major collateral damage and subjection to foreign powers.
I agree with those who want to keep this an indigenous, grassroots movement. I disagree with them when they constantly urge "patience" as an excuse to delay real action. Once the grassroots of the opposition organizes properly and decides to act boldly, then there won't be any need for foreign intervention.
That depends on what group of Iraqis you ask. Iraqi Christians are being kidnapped, raped and murdered. There were 1.5 million Christians in Saddam's Iraq 20 years ago. Today, the number is about 400,000 and shrinking.
Countries like today's Iraq claim to be democratic (or in transition), but they don't understand that human rights and religious liberty are essential parts of democracy.
Bozorg,
“…….only thing a military attack would guarantee is major collateral damage and subjection to foreign powers.”
I suppose that means Russia is not foreign power. Iran is already occupied by foreign powers, Russia, China and their partners, IRGC. These foreign powers are not bombing from the air; they are raiding it from inside by crippling the economy, stilling jobs and natural resources.
“Once the grassroots of the opposition organizes properly and decides to act boldly, then there won't be any need for foreign intervention.”
We can wait for this until cows come home! It will never happen. First, Leaders of grassroots of the opposition who are in Iran are wasting away in prisons and those who are outside Iran are busy fighting one another. Second, do not hold your breath for “BOLD” act. You cannot act BOLD with green ribbons when your opponent has live bullet.
As we wait for grassroots of the opposition to organize and act boldly the country will become the killing field; Sunni killing shia and Shia killing Sunni Muslims, the Zahedan suicide bombing, something we had never seen in Iran.
Rgrassroots,
I am not calling for a war at all, I issued a warning to all political responsibles in Iran, who are still able to prevent it!!!
It is them, who have blood on their hands, not the people who want freedom and justice, or me, supporting them!
Go ask your masters, who have killed and raped thousands during these past 31 years, who free murderers and imprison human rights activists, journalists, students, Bahai, Christians, Kurds, Azeri, Baluchi day by day.
I am fed up with constantly lying regime supporters like you!
Arshama
Bijan77,
Obviously war is the last thing I want for Iran, but sometimes I try to analyze the situation in Iran from a completely independent point of view.
To my big regret no Iranian political party, group or current is actually willing or able to stop this dangerous course, heading for military conflict.
I did not say war is a solution, I am predicting it, if this course is not stopped, i.e. if sanctions fail to to be effective...
Arshama
Pak,
Let's be serious: do you think the hardliners, who bowed to the SL's command in a secondary issue like the Free Universities, will be able to impeach AN?
And even if they managed to do so, would they react differently to the demands of the international community in the nuclear case?
Do you know any political group in Iran, which is able to disempower the SL?
If not, the SL, who is living on his hatred against the US and the whole western world, who is bound to the IRGC and AN, will continue his fatal course of confrontation.
I am still hoping that sanctions will bring down this regime, otherwise it will be too late...
Arshama
Pak,
I, too, am amazed at some of the comments I have just read here.
Outside military intervention of any kind would be a total disaster. There is no way any other country could attack Iran without involving the entire Mideast.
The only military involvement possible that I can see rests with the Artesh. I hope every day that they will finally have enough of this ruthless regime and rise up to stop it. If the U.S. could get in contact with enough high ranking officers and offer aid and weapons superior to those of the IRGC the Artesh have the numbers to make quick work of the IRGC. I truly believe the people would heartily support this and once the IRGC is out of the way the regime would fall. The people would then be able to form whatever type of government they desire.
"I hope every day that they will finally have enough of this ruthless regime and rise up to stop it."
*******
The Iranian regime is just one despotic government among many in the Middle East and northern Africa. One of those regimes collapsing will not create a domino effect.
http://nickzz.tripod.com/apoislam/hway-2-mecca-muslims-only.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://nickzz.tripod.com/apoislam/hway-2-mecca-...
Pak,
No idea how to answer you...
You behave as if Iran would live in a bubble, not on this very real earth. First, the Green movement has no 15 years to develop and mature, because it will be a) crushed before, and b) the world community will not sit around, watching a mad dictator to build his beloved nuclear bomb in order to "wipe Israel off the map". I am sorry to say that such a vision is simply naive.
Perhaps it helps to take a look at the Third Reich (I mention an example for a dictatorship, about which I am somewhat informed): after harmless beginnings it gradually developed into a murderous tyranny, sacrificing its own citizens, i.e. the German Jews in Auschwitz or Bergen-Belsen, started to attack and occupy its neighbours, and ended up in ruins...
The Nazis did it in the name of the superior "Aryan" race, AN and his IRGC cronies will occupy neighbour countries and eliminate Israel in the name of their superior "Islam".
Do you think Mesbah Yazdi and his messianic ideology are just a joke? We may laugh about their "connection" to the Hidden Imam, but to them it is dead serious.
Strangely enough the German poet Stefan George also praised the "holy war" ("heilige krieg" or jihad) in one of his early poems:
Ihr baut verbrechende an maass und grenze:
>Was hoch ist kann auch höher!< doch kein fund
Kein stütz und flick mehr dient .. es wankt der bau.
Und an der weisheit end ruft ihr zum himmel:
>Was tun eh wir im eignen schutt ersticken
Eh eignes spukgebild das hirn uns zehrt?<
Der lacht: zu spät für stillstand und arznei!
Zehntausend muss der heilige wahnsinn schlagen
Zehntausend muss die heilige seuche raffen
Zehntausende der heilige krieg.
Iran is millennia old (though Iranians did not care for their archaeological heritage at all), but we are living today.
Arshama
Iran is millennia old (though Iranians did not care for their archaeological heritage at all), but we are living today.
Arshama
********
Why did the people dump their home-grown prophet Mani (Manicheanism) -- one of the greatest minds of all time -- and embrace Mohommad and his religion?
Mohommad -- lived for war
Mani -- pacifist
Mohommad -- polygamist
Mani -- abstinent.
Yes, the Persian Empire was exhausted from fighting the Roman Empire and the Arabs took advantage of that. Conquest and forced conversions followed. ...But it's still baffling.
Dear Arshama,
The opposition to the Shah developed under conditions not so dissimilar from today. The reaction of the regime is vital for the development of the Green Movement, even if it involves oppression, intimidation and terror (sorry to be so crude), because it teaches the movement that violence is not the answer; it teaches the movement about everything that is wrong with the current regime. The movement may ebb and flow in terms of popularity and visibility – it may even change name and leader – but it will always be there for disenchanted people to turn to, once they are enlightened about the true nature of the regime. The foundations have been built and they will not disappear. And, as Scott Lucas, among others, has documented, there is a significant power struggle emerging within the regime at the moment, which indicates that it is by no means stable.
Excuse my naivety, but I was never under the impression that the US/Israel would attack Iran to actually help Iran. I thought we established that the Iraq war was not about democracy and human rights. The reports coming out of American and Israeli think tanks/political institutions also suggest that an attack on Iran would be about democracy and human rights. If so, then why has Obama remained quiet and impotent about events in Iran since the elections? And I never believed that “pre-emptive” war was actually a legitimate doctrine. How would they attack anyway? Would they bomb key facilities, such as nuclear sites and military bases? This may weaken the military and delay the nuclear programme, but it would not dislodge the regime. Would they launch a full blown invasion? This would be catastrophic, expensive and a logistics nightmare, thus highly improbable. So it looks like they will commit a hit and run, thus achieving their short-term aims while leaving us Iranians with an even bigger problem; a regime that can finally justify its hatred of the US and Israel.
And, again, excuse my naivety, but I never actually believed that Iran had a threatening nuclear programme. Sure – Ahmadinejad and Mesbah Yazdi probably have wet dreams about attaining a nuclear bomb. But the evidence available to everyone proves time and again that Iran does not have the capability to build a bomb, let alone consensus. The nuclear programme is actually in tatters. Russia has taken over 15 years to “complete” Bushehr. Reports suggest that scientists are too afraid to run Natanz at full capacity, fearing it would blow up as a result. Where is all the enriched uranium that Ahmadinejad brags about? There are probably an embarrassing couple of kilos here and there, which would be under IAEA surveillance anyway. Regardless, Iran has not actually violated any law based on the NPT. The resolutions and sanctions imposed on Iran began with a dubious UN Security Council resolution (UNSC 1696) that demanded a freeze on enrichment, which ultimately led to more resolutions and sanctions, as Iran under Ahmadinejad refused to bow to such a dubious resolution.
I suggest you read Muhammad Sahimi’s article on Iran’s nuclear programme: http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/03sahimi.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/03sahimi.html. He has written many more articles since this one was published, a lot of which are readily available on-line. As well as describing the nature of the nuclear programme, Sahimi also challenges legal matters and time and again shows how Iran is acting within its rights.
The regime may bear a resemblance to the Nazi regime of Germany, but there are also significant differences. The Nazi’s actually had a formidable military; Iran does not. Anything the regime claims about its military is hot air. Nazi Germany was well organised, well supported by its population and well funded by its economy. Iran is chaotic, has a disillusioned population and its economy is held together by thread. If you truly believe that Iran will start an offensive war, as you are suggesting with your comparison to Nazi Germany, then you have bought into the regime propaganda. Iran will never start an offensive war; the regime is crazy, but not stupid. Their military doctrine is wholly defensive. The only thing I believe the regime craves is an idiotic attack by the US/Israel, in order to justify their existence, their raison d’être. If – and this is a highly improbably if – the regime launches an offensive war, then at least it would be my war. It would be my fault, my problem to deal with. It would not be a catastrophic and frankly insulting war imposed on me by another nation.
Please, it will take more than a poem – one that I cannot understand anyway – to convince me that war is a viable solution.
Few people are making propaganda consciously, the other are thinking what they have to think to. Open your eyes slaves
Sleep along - ore is it your first try to open your mouth?
@Pak
you wrote: “Regardless, Iran has not actually violated
any law based on the NPT”
Where did you picked up this kind of information?
Your kind suggestion to read Sahimi’s article it’s always a good proposal – but the articles you quoted are from 2004 and 2005 – they are “snow from yesterday” – at least melted by this summer heat.
Why don’t you read information from today?
Here you can read easily, where Iran had violated the NPT.
Source: Tehran Bureau, Headlines, 30. September 2009
“IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei told CNN that Iran has violated its obligations by failing to notify the Agency about the construction of the Qom facility”. (…..)
What’s about Qom? – The concealment of these facilities is a clear violation of NPT.
Furthermore look at:
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2010/gov2010-28.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Boar...
Summary IAEA 31.of May 2010 “Board of Governors”:
37. (….) … Iran has not provided the necessary cooperation to permit the Agency to confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.
38. More specifically, Iran is not implementing the requirements contained in the relevant resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, including implementation of the Additional Protocol, which are essential to building confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of Iran’s nuclear programme and to resolving outstanding questions. In particular, Iran needs to cooperate in clarifying outstanding issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to its nuclear programme. Iran also needs to implement the modified Code 3.1 on the early provision of design information.
39. In addition, contrary to the relevant resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has not suspended enrichment related activities. Iran has continued with the operation …………(…..)
40. Similarly, contrary to the relevant resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has also continued with the construction of the IR-40 reactor and with heavy water related activities. The Agency has not been permitted to take samples of the heavy water which is stored at UCF, and has not been provided with access to the Heavy Water Production Plant.
41. The Director General requests Iran to take steps towards the full implementation of its Safeguards Agreement and its other obligations, including implementation of its Additional Protocol.
So you can analyse the alarming signals of the strange behaviour of the Iranian Regime:
Absence of cooperation, concealment, non recognition, Continuing with forbidden activities, hindrance of the IAEA inspectors and non recognition of the Additional Protocol 3.1.
As I wrote - "alarming signals" - ore not?
@Pak
you said:
“The regime may bear a resemblance to the Nazi regime of Germany, but there are also significant differences”.
I agree with many of your estimates you have made according the comparison of the Nazis Regime and the Iranian dictatorship.
But your assessment – your quote “Their (the Iranian) military doctrine is wholly defensive” - you deeply failed - for at least two reasons:
1. The terror organizations “Anzar Hezbollah “ and “Hamas” invented and financed by the Iranian Regime to fight on a daily base an asymmetrical war outside the country are clear indicators that “ Iran is cooking ” a violent conflict beyond their borders. Furthermore there is the Quds brigade – they were fighting openly at the Libanon war.
2. At the last 13 months you could see just only one single answer of the cruel Iran Dictators: The only answer of Khamenei was bloody inhuman violence – an open war against their own people.
And furthermore the questions is: How to fight this murderers, torturers and rapists send by Khamenei with peaceful means – but clearly KNOWING, that this is a contradiction for himself.
Pak,
Obviously you are not what you pretend to be, but surely spreading the usual regime propaganda.
Re: "The opposition to the Shah developed under conditions not so dissimilar from today."
This is a complete lie. Iran has been "free" of foreign powers for 31 years, in which only your beloved Islamic Republic has ruled (ruined) this country. Instead of blaming this irresponsible dictatorship for the terror in Iran, you switch to an alledged US/Israel attack immediately.
Re: "Sure – Ahmadinejad and Mesbah Yazdi probably have wet dreams about attaining a nuclear bomb. But the evidence available to everyone proves time and again that Iran does not have the capability to build a bomb, let alone consensus."
Second lie. AN and his cronies insist on a nuclear bomb, which is a threat not only to Israel, but to the whole Middle East. Where is your evidence proving that the IR has not the capacity to build a bomb? And this is the main reason for actual sanctions. Before the 2009 elections regime supporters could have argued that the IR has no military ambitions, but since then the situation has completely changed: a regime that kills its own people to stay in power, is likely to wage a war for the same reason.
Re: "There are probably an embarrassing couple of kilos here and there, which would be under IAEA surveillance anyway."
Third lie. The IR has amassed more than two tons of enriched uranium, as the IAEA reports, enough to produce a nuclear weapon. If your beloved regime has no military nuclear ambitions, why didn't it accept the uranium swap from 2009?
Re: "Iran will never start an offensive war; the regime is crazy, but not stupid."
Can you guarantee that? Surely not! A regime, whose illegitimate president continues to menace Israel to "wipe it off the map" and claims to be the righteous leader of the whole Islamic world is not crazy, but dangerous. Your attempt to present AN as an unimportant jerk is falsified by realities: he oppresses Iran with his IRGC and Bassiji cronies, led by Mesbah Yazdi and his doomsday visions. Whenever he and his corporate raiders have ruined Iran's economy to a point that incites popular unrests, they will start a war to stay in power.
As Tired said: Open your eyes slaves.
Arshama