Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Bowing Out? (Abedin)

Mahan Abedin writes for Le Monde Diplomatique: "As the Iranian revolution moves toward its fifth decade, there seems to be no more room for the man who excelled in the art of being everything to everyone."

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran’s president from 1989-97, was at the top of the Iranian political establishment for three decades, his uncanny ability to manipulate politics to his own advantage undiminished. But over the past year, as Iran went through its most serious political crisis since the 1979 revolution, his empire has declined, and now his enemies have been emboldened to strike a fatal political blow. Rafsanjani has signalled his willingness to step aside from politics, thus avoiding public dismissal; the language has been carefully worded to minimise his loss of face.

Rafsanjani’s downfall was his inability to avoid a confrontation with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and supporters, after Ahmadinejad’s disputed victory in last year’s presidential election. The purge of Rafsanjani has less to do with a clash of personalities and factional interests; it signals a major re-alignment in Iranian politics, in which the role of factions is much diminished and the power of the state ascendant.

Rafsanjani has been among the most influential forces in Iranian politics, devoting his life to the revolution. Before the expulsion of the shah in 1979, he was a committed disciple of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and took extraordinary steps towards the fall of the monarchy. He even participated in political violence, notably the assassination of the former prime minister, Hassan Ali Mansour, in 1965.

After the revolution Rafsanjani was catapulted to the commanding heights of the Iranian government, serving as the speaker of the Majlis or National Assembly throughout the 1980s. This gave him a vantage point to survey the complex political faultlines of post-revolutionary Iran, with its many shifting factions.

Besides his Machiavellian instincts, Rafsanjani’s extraordinary political success came from his understanding of the Islamic Republic’s lively political scene and his ability to intervene successfully in major political disputes. By placing himself in the middle of warring political factions he was able to play mediator, taking the heat out of disputes --
all the while strengthening his own position and that of his family.

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Comments

[Arshama]

Re: “As the Iranian revolution moves toward its fifth decade"

Mr. Abedin appears to be very eager to prolong this terror, the Islamic (not Iranian) revolution just entered its 4th decade!

Re: "it signals a major re-alignment in Iranian politics, in which the role of factions is much diminished and the power of the state ascendant."

Which "state"? If you define AN's radical faction of Bassiji thugs, IRGC cronies and Mesbah Yazdi's Hojjatieh as "the state", this analysis is acceptable.