The Iran Crisis (Day 16): What to Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

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Saturday is likely to be a steady-as-she-goes day, as the regime tries to consolidate its hold on public space, and any political discussions occur in private.

The non-appearance of the Supreme Leader at Friday prayers sent a powerful message to Iranians. Ayatollah Khameini could stay away because the situation was returning to normal, with a reduction in the demonstrations on the streets and less vocal opposition from key politicians.

That's not to say there was nothing from the platform at Tehran University. Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami laid out the hard line to those who might continue to challenge the re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Protesters would be dealt with firmly and severely. Meanwhile, Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi pointed towards the possibilities of quieter negotiations with his reference to discussions to transform hostilities, antagonism and rivalries...into amity and cooperation among all parties". (See yesterday's analysis for more.)

This apparent tightening of the Government's grip was reinforced by two statements outside Iran yesterday. President Obama, at a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, again assumed his tough rhetorical stance against the post-election, but sharp readers should note that his anger was directed specifically against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, leaving the Iranian system relatively untouched, and that there was nothing to jeopardise a return to engagement if/when the crisis abates. Perhaps even more significantly, the British Government, after this week's flare-up of tensions with Tehran, issued a statement for a resolution of the situation by diplomatic means. Translation: London is now concluding that the Supreme Leader and the Government have re-asserted control, and they do not want a fight.

Still, as the media turns away from the Iran story and the regime portrays the confidence that all will soon be resolved (Press TV English is once more saying nothing in its news headlines, while offering analysis in its "Iran Today" programme on US interference), it's important to note that people are still finding the space to protest. Yesterday's public show of resistance was the release of green balloons into Iranian skies, and last night the cries of "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator" again were heard from rooftops.

At the moment, however, that continuing anger and demand for change has little visible leadership. There are reports that Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi is now withdrawing from the public challenge, former President Khatami has been silent for a few days, and, most importantly, Mir Hossein Mousavi is severely restricted in his movement and communications. There is no sign yet this morning of any impact of his latest letter to his supporters.

One more persistent and important note. Ahmadinejad continues a relatively hermit-like political existence. Mark this down: even if the Iranian system comes out of this crisis relatively unchanged, with the election results upheld and unchanged, Ahmadinejad is already a lame duck in office.

Iran: Hammer and Handshake

Immediate headlines from Tehran this afternoon may focus on the statement by Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami, who led Friday prayers in place of the Supreme Leader, that protesters would be dealt with forcefully. There may be, however, a second part of the message, one which promises accommodation behind the scenes.

Press TV's website is reporting prominently the statement of Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi calling for the post-election dispute to be settled through "national conciliation".

In a statement on his website Thursday, Makarem-Shirazi reinforced the official line of extremist trouble-making, "Extremely bitter events have occurred in the days following the magnificent 10th [presidential] election, and certain adventurists took advantage of the disputes between the honorable candidates." He also echoed the call of the Supreme Leader last Friday for "self-restraint".

The Grand Ayatollah was more explicit, however, in indicating that a deal might privately be struck to acknowledge the concerns and even demands of some critics of President Ahmadinejad's re-election: "Definitively, something must be done to ensure that there are no embers burning under the ashes, and (to ensure) that hostilities, antagonism and rivalries are transformed into amity and cooperation among all parties."

Speculation: while Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami was wielding the public hammer to smite the demonstrations, Press TV's emphasis on the Makarem-Shirazi statement is an indication of reassurance to key individuals. But whom? Former President Rafsanjani? Former head of the Republican Guard Mohsen Rezaie? Even a hand reached out to Mir Hossein Mousavi?