The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

The Iran Crisis (Day 16): What to Watch For Today
The Latest from Iran (26 June): It’s (No Longer) A Thriller

NEW Making Links: Extract from Martin Luther King’s “Letter from a Birmingham Jail”
UPDATED Iran: A Tale of Two Twitterers

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2230 GMT: Reports circulating that "persiankiwi", one of the key Iranian sources on Twitter for information and comment (see separate entry), has been arrested.

2200 GMT: Reports tonight that a group of women's rights activists, assembling in Laleh Park to light candles for Neda Agha Soltan and others killed in post-election protests, were violently dispersed by security forces. News agencies supporting the Government took pictures with telephoto lenses, and extra female officers were on hand to deal with the demonstrators.

1730 GMT: More manoeuvring ahead of the Guardian Council's attempt on Sunday to close off any discussion of the election outcome. Mir Hossein Mousavi has written to the Council (link in Farsi), requesting a legal and religious body of arbitration accepted by all candidates". This is a clear attempt to build on notions that the Council is far from neutral, a concern raised by "establishment" figures like Ali Larijani last week.

Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi has reiterated his current position in a meeting with the National Security Council, saying he will pursue through "legal means" an annulment of the vote.

1540 GMT: Reuters has confirmed the news, which emerged yesterday, that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's media office, Abolfazl Fateh, has been barred from leaving Iran. Fateh is a doctoral student in Britain.

1430 GMT: The Islamic Iran Participation Front, the reformist organisation of former President Mohammad Khatami and high-profile detainees such as Saeed Hajjarian, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Abdollah Ramezanzadeh has issued a statement declaring that any "staged confession" is "illegal". It is warning of the "intoxication of power" of State authorities and their further plans for the opposition.
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1340 GMT: A hitch in the Iranian regime's plans for confirmation of a Guardian Council "recount" (see 1215 GMT). Gerami Moghadam, the speaker of Mahdi Karroubi's Etemad Melli Party, has said that Karroubi will only send a representative if two members of the special group attending the recount are changed.

1330 GMT: Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has issued a statement on the Mousavi website denying her detention, "I haven't been arrested, I continue my academic duties, I remain opposed yet committed to the law."

1215 GMT: While all remains quiet for today, here's a look at the regime's scenario for Sunday:

Guardian Council declares, after a "recount" of 10% of the ballot boxes, that the Presidential election result is valid. Representatives of all campaigns, attending the session, accept the outcome, ending the immediate battle against President Ahmadinejad.

Why would the representatives of candidates such as Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi agree?

Hundreds of detainees, including the top people from the opposition campaigns, in Iranian jails, few if any of whom are released before the official vote count is endorsed.

0915 GMT: The US-Iran Sideshow. Press TV's website reports on a Washington poke-in-the-eye for Tehran. US authorities denied visas for Iran's First Vice President, Dr. Parviz Davoudi, and the rest of the delegation to attend a United Nations conference on the world economic crisis on Friday.

While this is a far more notable rebuke than the non-story, seized on by the media, that the US Government had withdrawn invitations for Iranian diplomats to eat hot dogs at 4th of July parties at American embassies, it's a token wrist-slap for Iran. Still, it's enough to rankle the Iranian Ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Khazaee, and Press TV, which also wins today's award for Wide-Eyed Innocence:

It remains unclear...whether [the visa denial] had anything to do with the United States' position on the outcome of Iran's recent presidential elections.

0715 GMT: The lockdown on significant information from Iran is almost complete. Non-Iranian media, browbeaten by Tehran's authorities, have now moved to other stories (to its credit, Al Jazeera has picked up on the escalating problems in Iraq rather than joining the Michael Jackson procession). The opposition leadership's newspapers have been shut down and its websites curbed. The flow of videos from citizen journalists has all but stopped.

And now the Twitter sources are dropping off. Two of the most important observers, whom we profiled earlier this week, are again silent, and others just cannot find or get out the information that is needed. (There are still a few important, vital exceptions, whose work you'll see in our updates. Fingers crossed that they can continue in their efforts.)

The Iran Crisis (Day 14): What To Watch For Today

The Latest from Iran (25 June): The Sounds of Silence

NEW Iran: A Tale of Two Twitterers
NEW Iran: A List of Those Killed and Detained (12-23 June)
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The Latest from Iran (24 June): Afternoon Violence
Latest Video: Resistance and Violence (24 June)

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At the request of our readers, we're starting this feature as a quick guide to the day's event. For rolling updates through the day, go to The Latest from Iran.

After yesterday afternoon’s surge in tension and uncertainty, particularly at the rally in front of the Iranian Parliament, a strange, almost eerie quiet in news and chatter. There is little coming in from sources and Twitter.

CNN’s website, which went on Red Alert over reports of beatings of protesters, particular in a dramatic phone call (see Latest Video) from an eyewitness to its studio and its correspondent’s general assertion of Iranian paramilitary Basiji “acting like animals”, has fallen back with a peripheral statement from Iran’s Ambassador to Mexico and the official Iran line of the Supreme Leader’s call for tolerance. (It should be noted, however, that CNN TV — back in its vacuum of news — is running heavily with criticism of the Iranian regime from its reporters, Nobel Prize Winner Shirin Ebadi, author Azadeh Moaveni, and Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi.)

Press TV, after suddenly breaking its blackout to give attention to the general political situation (though not to the specific demonstration at the Parliament). The BBC (English service) isn’t even sure that anything took place yesterday: their website headline uses cautionary quote marks, “Protesters ‘in new Iran clashes’”.

The lull in information leaves questions on both the public and private fronts. Publicly, there are conflicting reports over whether this afternoon’s demonstration (4:30 p.m. local time; 1200 GMT) proceeds; there is a claim that Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi has “cancelled” the memorial to those who have died in post-election violence.

Privately, there is a suspension of news on the manoeuvres within the Government and between the Government and the opposition. There is no follow-up to last night’s intriguing report of a meeting between a key official, the head of the National Security Council, with former President Rafsanjani and candidates Mousavi and Rezaei.

Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

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Tehran Bureau has posted the following list. Many of the names have also been confirmed by other sources and our correspondents. In addition, Tehran Bureau profiles journalist and filmmaker Maziar Bahari (left), who was working for Newsweek when he was arrested this weekend:

Politicians

Dr. Mohsen Aminzadeh: Member of the Student Followers of Imam’s Line (SFIL), the leftist group of the students who took over the United State Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979; Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami administration; member of the Central Committee of the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organization (IRMO), one of the two leading reformist parties; founding member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), Iran’s largest political party; director of the Mousavi campaign.

Dr. Saeed Hajjarian: Member of SFIL; leading reformist strategist; advisor to Mohammad Khatami during his presidency; editor-in-chief of Sobh-e Emrooz (This Morning), a leading reformist newspaper shut down by the hard-liners; member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; deputy Minister of Intelligence in the 1980s; member of the SFILM; handicapped by an assassination attempt on his life in March 2000.

Behzad Nabavi: Leading reformist strategist, a founder, and member of the Central Committee of IRMO; Deputy Speaker of the 6th Majles (parliament); chief negotiator with the United States that led to the release of the American hostages in 1981; Minister in the first Mousavi Cabinet in the 1980s; jailed for years by the Shah.

Mohammad Tavassoli: Tehran’s first mayor after the 1979 Revolution; member of the Central Committee and political director of the Freedom Movement of Iran (FMI), a reformist/centrist political party founded in 1961 by Mahdi Bazargan, the first prime minister after the 1979 Revolution; jailed for years by the Shah.

Mostafa Tajzadeh: Deupty Interior Minister in the first Khatami administration who supervised the elections for the first city councils and the 6th Majles, a process praised for its even-handedness and transparency; member of the Central Committees of both IIPF and IRMO; outspoken critic of the hard-liners.

Dr. Abdollah Ramazanzadeh: Deputy Secretary-General of the IIPF; Government spokesman during the second Khatami administration; Governor-General of the Kurdistan province; deputy Interior Minister for planning, and for political affairs.

Mohammad Ali Abtahi: Chief of Staff, and then Vice President to Mr. Khatami for parliamentary affairs; a principal advisor to Mahdi Karroubi (the second reformist candidate) in the 2009 presidential election; popular reformist cleric who writes for his own website/blog, www.webnevesht.com ; a leading member of the Association of the Combatant Clerics, the reformist leftist clerical organization that supports Mr. Mousavi.

Dr. Ebrahimi Yazdi: Secretary-General of the FMI; Foreign Minister in the Bazargan government after the 1979 Revolution; leading aid to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during the Revolution (he was arrested while hospitalized for a medical condition; it is said that he may have been released).

Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi: Secretary-General of the IIPF; chairman of the 6th Majles’ Committee on National Security; one of the three principal leaders of SFIL who took over the US Embassy in 1979.

Mohammad Atrianfar: Deputy Interior Minister in the first Khatami administration; member of the Central Committee of the Executives of Reconstruction Party (ERP), a reformist party; editor-in-chief of the popular daily Hamshahri (owned by Tehran’s city council) during the second Khatami administration; manager of Shargh, a popular daily reformist newspaper shut down by the hardliners.

Mohsen Safaei Farahani: Member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; former head of Iran’s Soccer Federation, deputy Minister of Economy in the Khatami administration.

Hedayatollah Aghaaei: Member of the Central Committee of the ERP.

Davood Soleimani: Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance for Domestic Press in the first Khatami administration; Tehran deputy in the 6th Majles; member of the Central Committee of the IIPF.

Dr. Ali Tajer Niya: Mashhad’s [a large city in northeastern Iran] deputy to the 6th Majles; member of the campaign team of Mr. Mousavi; member of the IIPF.

Jahanbakhsh Khanjani: Spokesman for the Interior Ministry during the Khatami administrations; member of the ERP.

Saeed Leylaaz: Economic advisor to the Khatami administration; journalist; strong critic of President Ahmadinejad’s economic policies.

Abdolfattah Soltani: Prominent attorney and member of the Center for the Defense of Human Rights (founded by Shirin Ebadi, Iran’s Nobel Laureate for Peace); attorney for several jailed human rights advocates; attorney for the mother of Dr. Zahra Kazemi, the photojournalist that was murdered in an Iranian jail; imprisoned for his human rights activities.

Shahab Tabatabaei: Director of the youth committee of the Mousavi campaign.

Mohammad Reza Jalaei Pour: Director and spokesman of the nation-wide movement, Pouyesh, that supports Mr. Mousavi; son of the well-known university professor and reformist journalist Dr. Hamid Reza Jalaei Pour.

Abdollah Momeni: former Secretary-General of the Office for Consolidation of Unity (known in Iran as Tahkim Vahdat, the largest nation-wide university student organization), and the Organization of University Graduates of Islamic Iran (known in Iran as Advaar-e Tahkim); a prominent political activist.

Rajabali Mazrouei: Member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; Isfahan’s deputy to the 6th Majles; journalist, and director of the Association of Iranian Journalists

Journalists and Bloggers

Mahsa Amrabadi: reporter for the E’temaad-e Melli (National Trust) daily, the mouthpiece of the National Trust Party of Mr. Mahdi Karroubi, the reformist candidate.

Karim Arghandehpour: journalist writing for reformist newspapers Salaam and Vaghaa-ye Ettefaaghiyeh, both of which were shut down by the hard-liners. He also has a blog, www.futurama.ir

Khalil Mir Ashrafi: A television producer and journalist

Behzad Basho: Cartoonist

Kayvan Samimi Behbahani: Managing editor of Naameh (Letter), a monthly publication, close ties to the Nationalist-Religious Coalition (NRC)

Somayyeh Tohidloo: a blogger at http://smto.ir ; political activist; sociologist; supporter of Mr. Mousavi

Abdolreza Tajik: political activist, economist, and close to the FMI and the NRC

Dr. Ahmad Zeydabadi: distinguished journalist writing for www.roozonline.com and print media in Iran; Secretary-General of the Organization of University Graduates of Islamic Iran (Advaar-e Tahkim); a supporter of Mr. Karroubi; close to the RNC.

Mojtaba Pourmohsen: editor of Gilaan-e Emrooz (Today’s Gilaan; Gilaan is a province in northern Iran, bu the Caspian Sea); contributor to Radio Zamaneh (a Persian radio in Holland).

Hamideh Mahhozi: a journalist active in southern Iran

Amanollah Shojaei: a blogger living in Bushehr, in southern Iran

Hossein Shokouhi: reporter and journalist writing for Payaam-e Jonoob (the Message of the South), in southern Iran.

Mashallah Haydarzadeh: Another journalist active in southern Iran

Ruhollah Shahsavar: A journalist working in Mashhad (in northeaster Iran)

Mohammad Ghoochani: prominent reformist journalist, editor of many reformist newspapers shut down by the hardliners (e.g., Shargh [East]; Hammihan [Compatriot], and the weekly, Shahrvand Emrooz [Today’s Citizen]); editor of E’temaad Melli; son-in-law of Mr. Emad Baghi, the prominent journalist and human rights advocate.

Jila Baniyaghoob: prominent female journalist, working previously for many reformist newspapers; editor of the website Kannon-e Zanaan-e Irani (Center for Iranian Women); writing at http://irwomen.net

Bahman Ahmadi Amooee: journalist and husband of Jila Baniyaghoob

Eisa Sahar Khiz: an outspoken journalist who has been a critic of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; contributor to www.roozonline.com director in charge of the domestic press during the first two years of Mr. Khatami’s presidency, during which the Iranian press flourished.

Iran: The "Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto" for Change (Gary Sick)

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move
Video and Transcript: The Moment of Truth? Mousavi’s Speech at Saturday’s Protests

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On Saturday, hours after his speech to marchers in Jeyhoon Street, Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi posted a lengthy letter to his supporters. (We posted the video and letter in a separate entry.) Yesterday Gary Sick, one of the top US specialists on Iran, offered a critique: "It is apparent from this statement that Mousavi’s movement — and Mousavi himself — have evolved enormously in the past week....[This] is truly a revolutionary statement."

Mousavi's new revolutionary manifesto

[On Saturday], Mir Hossein Mousavi, the presidential candidate who has come to represent the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people, issued a formal statement.

Although he denounces the “lies and fraud” of the leadership, particularly in the recent election, he views the fraudulent election as only as the symptom of something far more serious. He describes a revolution gone wrong, a revolution that was originally based on attention to the voice of the people but has resulted in “forcing an unwanted government on the nation.”

This moment is “a turning point,” he says, and he defines the ” the movement that is forming around him of having a “historical mission” to accomplish nothing less than “renewing the life of the nation” according to its own ideals.

He acknowledges, interestingly, that his own voice at the beginning was less ‘eloquent’ than he would have wished and that the people were ahead of him in turning the movement green. But now he accepts the “burden of duty put on our shoulders by the destiny of generations and ages”

He denounces both extremes of the political spectrum: those on one hand who believe that “Islamic government is the same as Tyranny of the Rightful;” and on the other, those who “consider religion and Islam to be blockers for realization of republicanism,” i.e. those who believe that Islam and democracy are incompatible.

Mousavi says his call for annulment of the election and a revote, supervised by an impartial national body, “is a given right.” Theobjective is nothing less than “to achieve a new type of political life in the country.”

That is truly a revolutionary statement. He says he will stand by the side of all those seeking “new solutions” in a non-violent way. He accepts the principles and the institutions of the Islamic Republic, including the Revolutionary Guard and the basij, but denounces “deviations and deceptions.” He demands reform “that returns us to the pure principles of the Islamic Revolution.”

He calls for freedom of expression in alll its forms, and says that if the government permits people to express their views “there won’t be a need for the presence of military and regulatory forces in the streets.”

It is apparent from this statement that Mousavi’s movement — and Mousavi himself — have evolved enormously in the past week. The candidate started as a mild-mannered reformer. After the searing events of the past several days, he has dared to preach a counter sermon to Khamene’i’s lecture on Islamic government. Although he never mentions the Leader by name, there is no overlooking the direct contradiction of his arguments. This open opposition to the Leader by a political figure is unprecedented.

Mousavi has in fact issued a manifesto for a new vision of the Islamic Republic. The repression and disdain of the government has brought the opposition to a place they probably never dreamed of going. And no one knows where any of the parties are likely to go next.

But for outside observers, it is like standing on the edge of a glacier and feeling the ice begin to crack under your feet.

Iran: EA's Chris Emery in The Guardian on Khamenei and Mousavi

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Will The Rally Go Ahead?
Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address

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Chris Emery has published in The Guardian Online an updated version of his article, "7 Lessons", on the significance and possible outcomes of the Supreme Leader's address on Friday. He filed this last night, well before the dramatic events of today, but his projections --- especially as Mir Hossein Mousavi has just reportedly addressed his supporters despite State threats and violence --- are even more significant:

Khamenei puts the ball in Mousavi's court

Even for a seasoned political animal like Iran's Supreme Leader, speaking at Friday prayers posed a severe challenge. Ayatollah Khamenei, recognising that he was unable to offer the disgruntled parties any significant concessions, reasoned that the wisest move was to increase the pressure on the political opposition centred on presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. Mousavi now faces an agonising decision: does he withdraw his backing for further demonstrations or risk being held directly responsible for any future bloodshed? Khamenei's speech thus primarily aimed to split Mousavi, and to a lesser extent fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, from their supporters.

As I write, in the wake of Khamenei's speech, reports suggest that Mousavi will defy an Interior Ministry ban and cross the Rubicon to attend tomorrow's demonstrations in Tehran's Enqelab Square. With Khamenei having drawn a line under the election result, explicitly warning Mousavi's supporters that they cannot influence his decision making, this could yet be the greatest challenge the Islamic Republic has ever seen.

In truth, Mousavi faces few viable alternatives apart from remaining a figurehead for the opposition. Whether or not he attends tomorrow's planned demonstration, it appears certain that his supporters will turn out again in huge numbers. Denied Mousavi's political backing, these masses would be isolated and more easily attacked as extremist rioters. Mousavi is thus in the unenviable position of being responsible for his supporter's political cover, while at the same time being held accountable for any potential violence perpetrated by either side. Faced with this dilemma, Mousavi will probably attend but urge extreme restraint.

It is possible, but probably unlikely, that Mousavi will be offered something he can take to his people by the Guardian Council, which is meeting with all four presidential tomorrow. There seems little, however, this arch conservative body can now offer Mousavi in terms of concessions. Even if Mousavi is persuaded, or simply threatened, to end his challenge this would not prevent tomorrow's demonstration.

Ominously, Khamenei used his speech to defend the feared state paramilitaries, the Basij, and criticised attacks on them by the public. There are unconfirmed reports that Basij and Revolutionary Guard forces are now grouping in large numbers on the streets of Tehran. The state's irregular enforcers will potentially view the Supreme Leader's moratorium on dissent as license to commit acts of violence in the knowledge that Khamenei has implicitly set Mousavi up to take the blame.

The Supreme Leader also came to Friday prayers apparently to mostly praise former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not to bury his rival. This, again, was a calculated political manoeuvre. Following these conciliatory gestures, together with the Supreme Leader's strong backing of Ahmadinejad, any continued moves by Rafsanjani will appear increasingly brazen and disloyal. The Supreme Leader will also be buoyed by reports that Rafsanjani's efforts to rally opposition against the president among senior clerics have met a lukewarm response.

Khamenei was thus speaking to the presidential candidates, the people in the streets and influential power bases in Iran's political establishment. Predictably, the Supreme Leader also played the nationalist card. He called the election a "political defeat" for Iran's "enemies" and evoked Iran's titanic war with Iran, the ubiquitous "Zionist" threat and the continued intrusion on Iran's national sovereignty by the United States and Britain. The speech also went beyond criticism of these alleged intrusions. Khamenei put events in Iran in a wider geo-political context; highlighting the current turmoil in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. The message to Iran's international audience was clear: continuing instability in Iran is not in your strategic interests. The Supreme Leader equally sought to remind Mousavi of the danger of Iran descending into the chaos seen in its regional neighbours, where US military intervention has followed.

Overall therefore, the Supreme Leader's defiant rejection of any wrongdoing in these elections has put the ball firmly in Mousavi's court. His political future, and even personal freedom, may now depend on the conduct of tomorrow's demonstration and how the authorities respond.