The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)
Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists
Iran: Who was "Neda"?
Iran: The “Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto” for Change (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)

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2300 GMT: It's on....Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site put out the news this evening, "There will be another peaceful demonstration in Tehran to honor the martyrs on Thursday. Please Update us with your 'Solidarity' Events around the globe on Thursday."

There will now be a 60-hour cat-and-mouse game between the protest movement and the Government. Iran State-run media had already spread the message from the Revolutionary Guards, warning demonstrators not to take to the streets Tuesday. That is now superseded by preparations for Thursday, as we predicted in a separate entry earlier today: Mousavi is declaring that he will announce the march route for Thursday much closer to the time, thus limiting the Government's ability to react.

The latest news overtakes the Government's pseudo-concession earlier in the evening. Press TV repeated the news that Guardian Council and Ministry of the Interior would conduct a box-by-box vote recount, but those same bodies added that no one should expect that this would change the results.

2100 GMT: Mousavi supporters say a general strike is to take place in Iran on Tuesday.

1920 GMT: We have now posted a special snap analysis of today's possibly significant breakthrough from talks between Mir Hossein Mousavi and senior clerics.

1910 GMT: State-run media is reporting that the Ministry of the Interior will carry out a box-by-box vote recount.

Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports that demos continue across Tehran. Paramilitary Basiji are stopping any group of 2 or more people and shooting at "suspects" with paintballs to identify who has been in protests. "God is great" is ringing out from the rooftops of Tehran. Tehran Bureau adds that Basiji are stopping cars and confiscating any cameras, taking the ID cards of the owners.

1810 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has now posted his appeal to the Guardian Council.

1720 GMT: Claims on Twitter that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will address a "silent, civil rally" in Tehran on Thursday. Karroubi has also reportedly urged the Guardian Council to annul the Presidential vote instead of wasting time.

1520 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Alireza Ronaghi reports "small gatherings" in a small park near 7 Tir Square with "far too many" security personnel for an ordinary afternoon. "On every important crossroad and...traffic bridges, we saw security forces and special units of the police standing by....Many of these people are just wearing normal clothes with helmets and shields."

Ronaghi also spoke with a key Ahmadinejad advisor, Alireza Zaker-Esfahani, who said, "I don't think the unrest will last. Iran's history is proof of that....Failure [of Mousavi campaign] always brings dissatisfaction. The emotional conditions will not last." The current problem is "the weakness in Mir Hossein Mousavi's political behaviour, which could help calm public opinion by giving it the right information. Unfortunately he did the opposite."

And the reason for President Ahmadinejad's near-disappearance since last Sunday? Zaker-Esfahani asserted, "If he enters the scene now, he may expose himself to the accusation that he --- as Mousavi might said --- is an accomplice in possible irregularity."

1515 GMT: Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee has confirmed to BBC Persian TV what we reported this morning in a short profile of the woman killed on Saturday by paramilitary Basiji: she was buried quickly yesterday and Iranian authorities prevented any memorial service.

1450 GMT: AP reports that the British government is going to evacuate families of British diplomatic personnel in Iran.

1408 GMT: CNN close to helpless now. They are insisting on calling the quick burial of Neda Agha Soltan and the cancelled memorial service "rumours". (We received verified information on this early this morning.)

1402 GMT: Press TV also headlining, "Iran Confirms First Swine Flu Case". Just waiting for this to be blamed on "Western interference". (The patient is a 16-year-old Iranian resident of the US who was visiting Iran.)

1400 GMT: Reports that Iranian security forces have used tear gas and fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters at 7 Tir Square. Press TV continues to lag behind events with the headline that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) "is ready to crush new riots". The IRGC also hailed the Presidential election as "an epic that disappointed the enemies".

1330 GMT: BNO News now reports clashes in Tehran. The AFP wire now says there are 1000 protesters (the figure of 200 appears to have been an error).

1315 GMT: Twitter's BNO News, citing AFP, report that there are 200 people at the rally in Tehran- not the 1000+ reported by Reuters.

1255 GMT: A new rally appears to be taking place in Tehran, possibly in memory of Neda Soltan. CNN's David Clinch reports on Twitter, "Hundreds of protestors have gathered at Haft-e Tir square in Tehran. Hundreds of Basijis + riot police confronting the crowd". A smaller demonstration is also due to take place at the Iranian embassy in London.


1230 GMT: Reuters reports that the Italian embassy in Tehran is open to wounded protesters.

1150 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has urged supporters to stage more protests against Ahmadinejad's reelection. Iran has meanwhile accused the BBC and Voice of America of engineering post-election unrest in Iran.

1105 GMT: We have just posted a video which appears to show Neda Soltan minutes before her death.

1055 GMT: Associated Press are reporting that Iran's Revolutionary Guard are threatening to "crush" any further protests. Iranian activists say roadblocks from the north to south of Tehran have been set up to prevent congregation of protesters. The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is under heavy guard, and all roads and alleyways around the Ministry of the Interior are closed with concrete blocks and guards.

1045 GMT: Has "Neda" become the symbolic key to the movement's next steps? Mir Houssein Mousavi and advisors are making a concerted effort to link image and protest, both on Mousavi's Facebook site and on a special page devoted to Neda Agha Soltan.

1015 GMT: Twitter users report that there will be a candlelit vigil for Neda Soltan this evening from 5  to 7 p.m. in 7 Tir Square, Tehran.

1005 GMT: Press TV's website and TV channel are both currently leading with Iran's condemnation of "foreign interference by certain Western states in the country's internal affairs." Significantly, however, Press TV have also announced that results in the 50 cities where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters would not have had an impact on the outcome of the election.


1000 GMT: Press TV has confirmed that the daughter and four other relatives of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released from detention.

1010 GMT: Twitter's PersianKiwi, previously a reliable source of information, believes that Mehdi Karroubi is to publish an announcement today.

0935 GMT: Reuters reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a change of leadership in Iran could lead to peaceful relations between the two states. "There is no conflict between the Iranian people and the people of Israel and under a different regime the friendly relations that prevailed in the past could be restored," he told the German newspaper Bild. "What we have seen in Iran is a powerful desire on the part of the Iranian people to be free."

0900 GMT: On the BBC's flagship radio programme Today, Jeremy Bowen offered a similar line to that in our Morning Update (0500 GMT): "The opposition has to decide what its next move will be."

0645 GMT: I'm off on academic duties until mid-afternoon. Mike Dunn will keep an eye on the latest news and update. Meanwhile, please keep sending in your information and comments.

0640 GMT: A far-from incidental detail that was lost over the weekend. The spokesman for the Guardian Council admitted to state-run IRIB television that the number of votes collected in 50 cities was more than the number of eligible voters. The total vote concerned is about 3 million.

0630 GMT: The latest phase of the Iranian Government's attack against "Western interference" was just launched by Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi in his weekly press conference. He was expansive and at times almost agitated in his denuncation, claiming at one point that CNN was posting material on how to conduct "cyber-warfare" against Iran.

The strategy was far from subtle and far from unexpected. What was more interesting was that some of the questions to Qashqavi were challenging, preferring to focus on the details of the Presidential vote rather than American, British, or French meddling. Qashqavi was uneasy at these points, avoiding the questions and returning to his main theme, arguing that there was no interference when the US had its own disputed Presidential election in 2000.

Morning Update 0500 GMT: There is still an uneasy lull in political developments and widespread protests. Press TV is eagerly reporting, "Calm has returned to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran," with film showing cars moving freely and pedestrians strolling in shopping districts. The violence of Saturday is blamed on protestors "who attacked security forces who tried to disrupt" their march, with "hundreds" arrested (other Iranian state media put the number at 457).

Iranian authorities are trying to choke off the political challenge. They have arrested not only many advisors of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi but also five members of former President Rafsanjani's family (although they were later reported to have been released). A large but unknown number of activists and opposition party members have also been detained. Media coverage has been closed off, not only through denial of movement to reporters but arrests of about two dozen journalists.

Mousavi is responding through statements posted on his Facebook site and webpage. Yesterday he declared,""Protesting against lies and fraud (in the election) is your right...In your protests, continue to show restraint. I am expecting armed forces to avoid irreversible damage."

However, to maintain momentum, the challenge to the Government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad awaits movement on two fronts. Within the higher reaches of the system, Rafsanjani's challenge appears to have been blunted, with senior clerics unwilling to come out openly against the Supreme Council. The Guardian Council is holding the line on the legitimacy of the Presidential vote, and Ali Larijani's call for reforms, which we covered in detail yesterday, will have only limited if any effects.

The second front of mass pressure is also uncertain. There has been talk of a candlelight march this afternoon and of a general strike, but nothing firm has crystallised. At this point, it is more likely that there will be scattered demonstrations today.

This does not mean that the battle is over, only slowed. The symbol of "Neda", the 27-year-old student killed by paramilitary Basiji on Saturday, has spread beyond Iran and around the world. Symbols, however, can only represent change rather than bringing it about. Whether Neda Agha Soltan's death will accompany a long-term movement in Iranian politics and society or will become one of many tragic footnotes to this crisis remains to be seen.

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
Iran Latest: A Khatami Action Plan?

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Take 2 --- Reliable activists on Twitter indicate that Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was in Qom on Monday talking to "senior clerics".

Add 2 --- Within the last two hours, the Assocation of Combatant Clerics, associated with former President Khatami, has issued a statement in support of Mousavi.

Do you get the 4 of a significant upsurge in the movement against the Iranian Government?



I'm not sure, but these developments would explain why the opposition leadership was relatively quiet and unseen today, as scattered demonstrations took place in Tehran. It would also explain why, in the last few hours, Presidential candidate Karroubi has put pressure on the Guardian Council to annul the vote. And I think it would explain why the Mousavi and Karroubi groups have called for a rally on Thursday as a memorial to those who have lost their lives in the demonstrations (including "Neda", whose own memorial service was blocked by the Iranian authorities).

If this is true, this is a significant challenge. But its problem may be that, having given 72 hours' notice of the rally, it gives the Government and its agencies time to organise their response, which will no doubt be to block any mass gathering.

Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

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Tehran Bureau has posted the following list. Many of the names have also been confirmed by other sources and our correspondents. In addition, Tehran Bureau profiles journalist and filmmaker Maziar Bahari (left), who was working for Newsweek when he was arrested this weekend:

Politicians

Dr. Mohsen Aminzadeh: Member of the Student Followers of Imam’s Line (SFIL), the leftist group of the students who took over the United State Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979; Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami administration; member of the Central Committee of the Islamic Revolution Mojahedin Organization (IRMO), one of the two leading reformist parties; founding member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), Iran’s largest political party; director of the Mousavi campaign.

Dr. Saeed Hajjarian: Member of SFIL; leading reformist strategist; advisor to Mohammad Khatami during his presidency; editor-in-chief of Sobh-e Emrooz (This Morning), a leading reformist newspaper shut down by the hard-liners; member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; deputy Minister of Intelligence in the 1980s; member of the SFILM; handicapped by an assassination attempt on his life in March 2000.

Behzad Nabavi: Leading reformist strategist, a founder, and member of the Central Committee of IRMO; Deputy Speaker of the 6th Majles (parliament); chief negotiator with the United States that led to the release of the American hostages in 1981; Minister in the first Mousavi Cabinet in the 1980s; jailed for years by the Shah.

Mohammad Tavassoli: Tehran’s first mayor after the 1979 Revolution; member of the Central Committee and political director of the Freedom Movement of Iran (FMI), a reformist/centrist political party founded in 1961 by Mahdi Bazargan, the first prime minister after the 1979 Revolution; jailed for years by the Shah.

Mostafa Tajzadeh: Deupty Interior Minister in the first Khatami administration who supervised the elections for the first city councils and the 6th Majles, a process praised for its even-handedness and transparency; member of the Central Committees of both IIPF and IRMO; outspoken critic of the hard-liners.

Dr. Abdollah Ramazanzadeh: Deputy Secretary-General of the IIPF; Government spokesman during the second Khatami administration; Governor-General of the Kurdistan province; deputy Interior Minister for planning, and for political affairs.

Mohammad Ali Abtahi: Chief of Staff, and then Vice President to Mr. Khatami for parliamentary affairs; a principal advisor to Mahdi Karroubi (the second reformist candidate) in the 2009 presidential election; popular reformist cleric who writes for his own website/blog, www.webnevesht.com ; a leading member of the Association of the Combatant Clerics, the reformist leftist clerical organization that supports Mr. Mousavi.

Dr. Ebrahimi Yazdi: Secretary-General of the FMI; Foreign Minister in the Bazargan government after the 1979 Revolution; leading aid to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during the Revolution (he was arrested while hospitalized for a medical condition; it is said that he may have been released).

Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi: Secretary-General of the IIPF; chairman of the 6th Majles’ Committee on National Security; one of the three principal leaders of SFIL who took over the US Embassy in 1979.

Mohammad Atrianfar: Deputy Interior Minister in the first Khatami administration; member of the Central Committee of the Executives of Reconstruction Party (ERP), a reformist party; editor-in-chief of the popular daily Hamshahri (owned by Tehran’s city council) during the second Khatami administration; manager of Shargh, a popular daily reformist newspaper shut down by the hardliners.

Mohsen Safaei Farahani: Member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; former head of Iran’s Soccer Federation, deputy Minister of Economy in the Khatami administration.

Hedayatollah Aghaaei: Member of the Central Committee of the ERP.

Davood Soleimani: Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance for Domestic Press in the first Khatami administration; Tehran deputy in the 6th Majles; member of the Central Committee of the IIPF.

Dr. Ali Tajer Niya: Mashhad’s [a large city in northeastern Iran] deputy to the 6th Majles; member of the campaign team of Mr. Mousavi; member of the IIPF.

Jahanbakhsh Khanjani: Spokesman for the Interior Ministry during the Khatami administrations; member of the ERP.

Saeed Leylaaz: Economic advisor to the Khatami administration; journalist; strong critic of President Ahmadinejad’s economic policies.

Abdolfattah Soltani: Prominent attorney and member of the Center for the Defense of Human Rights (founded by Shirin Ebadi, Iran’s Nobel Laureate for Peace); attorney for several jailed human rights advocates; attorney for the mother of Dr. Zahra Kazemi, the photojournalist that was murdered in an Iranian jail; imprisoned for his human rights activities.

Shahab Tabatabaei: Director of the youth committee of the Mousavi campaign.

Mohammad Reza Jalaei Pour: Director and spokesman of the nation-wide movement, Pouyesh, that supports Mr. Mousavi; son of the well-known university professor and reformist journalist Dr. Hamid Reza Jalaei Pour.

Abdollah Momeni: former Secretary-General of the Office for Consolidation of Unity (known in Iran as Tahkim Vahdat, the largest nation-wide university student organization), and the Organization of University Graduates of Islamic Iran (known in Iran as Advaar-e Tahkim); a prominent political activist.

Rajabali Mazrouei: Member of the Central Committee of the IIPF; Isfahan’s deputy to the 6th Majles; journalist, and director of the Association of Iranian Journalists

Journalists and Bloggers

Mahsa Amrabadi: reporter for the E’temaad-e Melli (National Trust) daily, the mouthpiece of the National Trust Party of Mr. Mahdi Karroubi, the reformist candidate.

Karim Arghandehpour: journalist writing for reformist newspapers Salaam and Vaghaa-ye Ettefaaghiyeh, both of which were shut down by the hard-liners. He also has a blog, www.futurama.ir

Khalil Mir Ashrafi: A television producer and journalist

Behzad Basho: Cartoonist

Kayvan Samimi Behbahani: Managing editor of Naameh (Letter), a monthly publication, close ties to the Nationalist-Religious Coalition (NRC)

Somayyeh Tohidloo: a blogger at http://smto.ir ; political activist; sociologist; supporter of Mr. Mousavi

Abdolreza Tajik: political activist, economist, and close to the FMI and the NRC

Dr. Ahmad Zeydabadi: distinguished journalist writing for www.roozonline.com and print media in Iran; Secretary-General of the Organization of University Graduates of Islamic Iran (Advaar-e Tahkim); a supporter of Mr. Karroubi; close to the RNC.

Mojtaba Pourmohsen: editor of Gilaan-e Emrooz (Today’s Gilaan; Gilaan is a province in northern Iran, bu the Caspian Sea); contributor to Radio Zamaneh (a Persian radio in Holland).

Hamideh Mahhozi: a journalist active in southern Iran

Amanollah Shojaei: a blogger living in Bushehr, in southern Iran

Hossein Shokouhi: reporter and journalist writing for Payaam-e Jonoob (the Message of the South), in southern Iran.

Mashallah Haydarzadeh: Another journalist active in southern Iran

Ruhollah Shahsavar: A journalist working in Mashhad (in northeaster Iran)

Mohammad Ghoochani: prominent reformist journalist, editor of many reformist newspapers shut down by the hardliners (e.g., Shargh [East]; Hammihan [Compatriot], and the weekly, Shahrvand Emrooz [Today’s Citizen]); editor of E’temaad Melli; son-in-law of Mr. Emad Baghi, the prominent journalist and human rights advocate.

Jila Baniyaghoob: prominent female journalist, working previously for many reformist newspapers; editor of the website Kannon-e Zanaan-e Irani (Center for Iranian Women); writing at http://irwomen.net

Bahman Ahmadi Amooee: journalist and husband of Jila Baniyaghoob

Eisa Sahar Khiz: an outspoken journalist who has been a critic of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; contributor to www.roozonline.com director in charge of the domestic press during the first two years of Mr. Khatami’s presidency, during which the Iranian press flourished.

Iran: Who Was "Neda"?

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
UPDATED Iran: Who Was “Neda”? “A Beam of Light”

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Update 1720 GMT: The novelist Paulo Coelho has just posted on his blog that the doctor who tried to save Neda Agha Soltan is his best friend, "who showed me [Iran's] beautiful culture when I visited Teheran in 2000, who fought a war in the name of the Islamic Republic (against Iraq), who took care of wounded soldiers in the frontline, who always stood by real human values".

Drawn from this profile and from correspondents:

On Saturday, a woman was watching demonstrations on Karegar Avenue in Tehran when she was shot in the chest by a paramilitary Basiji. A 40-second video captured the killing; within hours, "Neda" became an icon --- witting or unwitting --- for the political movement in Iran.

Yesterday, the person behind the image emerged. She was Neda Agha Soltan, a philosophy student who was standing beside her professor (initial sources said her father).

Neda Agha Soltan was buried on Sunday. Her memorial service was scheduled for late afternoon in a mosque but was cancelled on orders from Iranian authorities.

Iran: The "Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto" for Change (Gary Sick)

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move
Video and Transcript: The Moment of Truth? Mousavi’s Speech at Saturday’s Protests

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On Saturday, hours after his speech to marchers in Jeyhoon Street, Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi posted a lengthy letter to his supporters. (We posted the video and letter in a separate entry.) Yesterday Gary Sick, one of the top US specialists on Iran, offered a critique: "It is apparent from this statement that Mousavi’s movement — and Mousavi himself — have evolved enormously in the past week....[This] is truly a revolutionary statement."

Mousavi's new revolutionary manifesto

[On Saturday], Mir Hossein Mousavi, the presidential candidate who has come to represent the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people, issued a formal statement.

Although he denounces the “lies and fraud” of the leadership, particularly in the recent election, he views the fraudulent election as only as the symptom of something far more serious. He describes a revolution gone wrong, a revolution that was originally based on attention to the voice of the people but has resulted in “forcing an unwanted government on the nation.”

This moment is “a turning point,” he says, and he defines the ” the movement that is forming around him of having a “historical mission” to accomplish nothing less than “renewing the life of the nation” according to its own ideals.

He acknowledges, interestingly, that his own voice at the beginning was less ‘eloquent’ than he would have wished and that the people were ahead of him in turning the movement green. But now he accepts the “burden of duty put on our shoulders by the destiny of generations and ages”

He denounces both extremes of the political spectrum: those on one hand who believe that “Islamic government is the same as Tyranny of the Rightful;” and on the other, those who “consider religion and Islam to be blockers for realization of republicanism,” i.e. those who believe that Islam and democracy are incompatible.

Mousavi says his call for annulment of the election and a revote, supervised by an impartial national body, “is a given right.” Theobjective is nothing less than “to achieve a new type of political life in the country.”

That is truly a revolutionary statement. He says he will stand by the side of all those seeking “new solutions” in a non-violent way. He accepts the principles and the institutions of the Islamic Republic, including the Revolutionary Guard and the basij, but denounces “deviations and deceptions.” He demands reform “that returns us to the pure principles of the Islamic Revolution.”

He calls for freedom of expression in alll its forms, and says that if the government permits people to express their views “there won’t be a need for the presence of military and regulatory forces in the streets.”

It is apparent from this statement that Mousavi’s movement — and Mousavi himself — have evolved enormously in the past week. The candidate started as a mild-mannered reformer. After the searing events of the past several days, he has dared to preach a counter sermon to Khamene’i’s lecture on Islamic government. Although he never mentions the Leader by name, there is no overlooking the direct contradiction of his arguments. This open opposition to the Leader by a political figure is unprecedented.

Mousavi has in fact issued a manifesto for a new vision of the Islamic Republic. The repression and disdain of the government has brought the opposition to a place they probably never dreamed of going. And no one knows where any of the parties are likely to go next.

But for outside observers, it is like standing on the edge of a glacier and feeling the ice begin to crack under your feet.