Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement

Even now, 18 hours after the news emerged, there is still a sense of confusion over the statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they were withdrawing their request for a permit to march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election.

As the news circulated, some reacted with disbelief, some with anger, some with resignation, and some with the assurance that this was the best course of action or even part of a wider scheme. Above all, however, there was this question: so what happens tomorrow,  on 22 Khordaad?

Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 12 June Protest (10 June)

Strangely, given that we are less than 24 hours from that occasion, my belief is that it's too early to tell, certainly to put up an analysis. I say that for two reasons.

First, there are curiosities in the chain of events. On one level, the Mousavi and Karroubi decision is straightforward: they made their approach to the Ministry of Interior, the Iranian authorities are stalling until the last minute before making a likely denial, the possibility that many people may be hurt if they turn out in the face of a heavy security presence makes a demonstration problematic.

Yet there are still gaps: given that Mousavi and Karroubi have referred for weeks to "other ways" of pressing opposition even if the permit was not granted, what is the Plan B? Is there really no suggestion beyond a general reference to  "the path of the people" before 22 Khordaad comes and goes?

Which --- perhaps as a diversion --- takes me back to an event at the start of the week. Mousavi and Karroubi, we were told, held a press conference in front of representatives of about a dozen reformist and Green media outlets. A photo of the two men was released, and further details were promised.

We looked on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. We searched for transcripts, video clips, even a summary of what was said. Nothing.

And so --- before possibly going too far off the track or too deep into what should remain unexamined for the moment --- what was discussed at that press conference?

The second and more important mystery beyond yesterday: opposition and the Green Movement are not just Mousavi and Karroubi. Indeed, in line both with their wishes and with the sentiments of many others, I do not refer to them as "leaders" of the opposition. They are important figures, but they are not the sole guardians of the challenge to the Iranian Government.

So today I watch for others: the reformist parties, the students, the women's movement, the labour movement, the human rights activists, those far-from-common people who are still making up their minds over how public or how private their concern, anger, and hope should be.

That watching, I think, should take precedence over any projection --- certainly any conclusion (and I have read many ill-informed conclusions in the last 48 hours) --- of what has or will happen in Iran. On 22 Khordaad, the day after, and far beyond.

Comments

[Offred]

There's no mystery at all. Both Mousavi and Karroubi are PART of the regime. They are on one side with Rafsanjani while Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are on the other. They are not about to topple the regime they helped create. They are responsible for the deaths of thousands of Iranians -- particularly in 1988. They want theocracy. Theocracy is not democracy. Wake up!

[Catherine]

Arash Aramesh at http://Insideiran.org" rel="nofollow">Insideiran.org adds some details to the story of the cancellation:

"The unwarranted execution of four Kurdish and one political prisoner last month, coupled with a wave of new articles and editorials in hardliner newspapers, such as Kayhan and Vatan Emrouz, have made many opposition activists believe that the government will not shy away from using brute force much worse than it did last year.

Kayhan poked fun at opposition leaders June 10, claiming that Moussavi, Karroubi, and former President Mohammad Khatami are actually very happy that the Interior Ministry denied their request because they were not going to be able to produce a crowd of more than a few hundred strong and that would cause yet another huge embarrassment for the Green movement."

[DCl6]

I don't know how they can expect people to actually believe that "only a few hundred" would show up...unless you live in a tiny village and are totally clueless about what's going on..

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