Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over "Khomeini"

Occasionally, in this crisis of almost a year, there is an unexpected twist of events. On the surface, that development may not fit the narrative of Green Movement v. regime, but its significance intersects with it and may propel even wider shifts in Iranian politics.

So it is with the Friday incident when the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini (pictured), was shouted down at the commemoration ceremony of his grandfather's death. Having watched the episode live, we soon noted that it might overshadow the regime's efforts --- through the speeches of President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei --- to bolster its legitimacy. We could not have expected, however, that by yesterday the episode would be the dominant story in Iranian politics.

The attempt to use the legacy of Khomeini --- by all sides --- has now become a fight over Khomeini.



A stream of clerics, reformist parties, and opposition figures defending Hassan Khomeini became a torrent yesterday. Equally significant, that defense of Khomeini --- from Grand Ayatollah Sane'i to Mehdi Karroubi to key Principlist MP Ali Motahari --- was also a sharp attack on the Ahmadinejad Government.

Even if the most dramatic of the allegations --- that the President encouraged the shout-down of Hassan Khomeini on Friday to humiliate him --- is not substantiated, how can a government which claims to take its ideals and principles from Imam Khomeini stand by while his descendant is forced to sit down and shut up by a group of unnamed hecklers?

The countering argument would be that Hassan Khomeini has thrown in his lot with the Green Movement and thus has abandoned the regime that his grandfather founded. That, however, is a risky course to take publicly --- the named attacks on Hassan Khomeini usually come from "hard-line" publications and not from officials in the Iranian Government. A regime which spent so much time trying to degrade the Green Movement by claiming that it burned photographs of Ayatollah Khomeini may not get away with, even if it took the chance, the public burning of his grandson's reputation.

The weekend, however, poses an even more imminent challenge for the regime: dare it say nothing at all? As the defences of Hassan Khomeini mounted, there was a loud silence. No words from the Supreme Leader, who had sought to use Friday Prayers as a high-profile exaltation of his position --- and denunciation of the opposition --- through Ayatollah Khomeini's image. Not a sound from the President. No utterance from the "security forces" who purportedly were keeping order at the Khomeini Shrine.

Not all in the opposition are comfortable embracing the legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini; there was also a silence over the weekend from activists in the Green Movement beyond the reformist parties and dissident clerics. Throughout this crisis, however, they have had an ally in Seyed Hassan Khomeini, who has signalled that he will not ostracise opposition figures (and that he will not allow his grandfather's Shrine and foundations to be used in that mission).

We shall see if --- perhaps inadvertently --- Hassan Khomeini, as he endured his public torment, did that opposition an even greater service on the anniversary of his grandfather's death.

Three days after that anniversary, five days to 22 Khordaad.

Comments

[Baz]

This reminds me a little of the "Russian Revolution(s)".

After the Czar was ejected, different groups argued as to what they should do next. Go this way - go that way?? They even had a civil war. There were arguments about whether the Revolution should be kept to within Russia - or exported worldwide. But they were all agreed on one thing - there was no going back.

Now - the two sides in Iran are arguing over who "owns" Khomenei - who is truest to Khomenei's "vision". Neither side denies Khomenei's vision . But there is one side - the current Regime - whose idea of the "revolution" is on-going and never-ending. They do not want it to be merely the Iranian Revolution leading to an Islamic Republic of Iran - they wish to take it to the world as an "Islamic" Revolution. This is the essential difference between the two sides - not unlike what happened in Russia. Only one side can win - as happened in Russia - but the poor people are the losers whichever side wins ( as was the case in Russia!) :)

Barry

[Dissected News]

I'm having a hard time with this particular angle. I understand how important this issue might be, symbolically, but I'm having a hard time understanding its overall significance.

I have my worries and questions about the state of the Green movement's leadership at present. As the anniversary is upon us, the debate about whether the green movement should follow Mousavi and/or Karroubi has seemed to intensify on the blogosphere and on Twitter. But not there alone. I've recently received many emails condemning Mousavi, or praising Karroubi, or dismissing both of them as leaders. I've also encountered a lot of chatter about the reformist vs. revolutionary direction the Green movement should be heading.

So here is my question. Is all of this the chatter of a bunch of writers and intellectuals, hot heads and mouthpieces, or are there serious rifts within the Green movement? Also, will these rifts interfere with the leadership of the protests, or are they likely to remain under the surface until such a time comes that a new government will be formed?

Thoughts?

[Bijan77]

James -

I have read your post several times during the day and since I have a moment will reply to the extent I can. While I will claim to be neither a writer or intellectual but rather simply an observer and student of the movement, to attempt to collect all the voices into one cohesive thought is an near impossible thought and I think this stems from, as we have discussed in the past, there are many views on what the goals of the movement are. While there is consensus on human rights, freedom of speech/assembly, release of prisoners, end to the hostile environment - the way to do this - return to Constitution, amend Consititution, new system - creates many currents within the Green movement. I think these concepts are the root of the varying chatter and perhaps questioning on who is best to lead the movement. As within many matters in life, there will be varying opinions, however, as you suggest, this may in turn be a point of consideration in the short term and long term furture of the movement. I too share you concern regarding the leadership but more so from a standpoint of what actions will be taken and less on the popularity of Mousavi or Karroubi. It seems to me Mousavi still garners more support but Karroubi, with is sharp rhetoric, appeals more so to specific views within the movement as a whole.

In short, I have learned, to observe and only through observation can there be a high level of accuracy in predictions. Observations thus far show while there are mulitple thougths in the end result, these thoughts do ideologically share common goals. The movement is working to become more encompassing by reaching out to labor and teachers (now, unpredictably, we see some level of inclusion to Kurds).

[DCl6]

Well Put sir.

[Bijan77]

Thank you.

[M. Ali]

Scott, I was thinking of something.

Why was the grandson invited to speak? Who invited him and who organized (was it even organized?) the disruption? Which are the two internal sides conflicted over this?

[Unity and the Many Voices of D]

[...] that divided both the opposition movement and the conservatives, the significance of which has been debated by experts. This past Friday,  the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, was heckled off the [...]

[Dissected News]

I totally agree, Bijan. I believe that as the days and weeks move forward, we will see a large amount of apparent unity. If this is a truly democratic movement, then many of these differences won't matter as they will become, essentially, the political parties of the post-IRI government. If and when we get that far.

Short of outright revolution, however, it remains the most likely scenario that eventually a reformist, perhaps Moussavi or Karroubi, perhaps their successors, will make it into the office of the President. Once there, they will be responsible for representing a plurality of views, or they will find themselves out of office.

I'm writing my analysis now, but the bottom line is that if this is really a democratic movement then it will survive differences like this. In fact, they will form the backbone of a healthy debate about the role of Iran in the future.

Thanks for the discussion, as always!

[Dissected News]

Here is my analysis of this event and the recent chatter I described in my previous comment:

Unity and the Many Voices of Dissent in Iran http://www.dissectednews.com/2010/06/unity-and-the-many-voices-of-dissent-in-iran.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.dissectednews.com/2010/06/unity-and-...

[Bijan77]

Thank you for the discussion as well James and agree with your comments.

I will read your analysis but another quick thought relative to your comment regarding a potential ascention of Mousavi, Karroubi or another reformist, we have all seen the results of a reformist movement when it runs into the conservative wall as exists today. Unless the concept of velayat-e-faqih is removed, changed or a moderate minded cleric becomes the next SL a repeat of the sentiment during and after the Khatami era may be likely.

[Baz]

M Ali

"Why was the grandson invited to speak? Who invited him and who organized (was it even organized?) the disruption? Which are the two internal sides conflicted over this?"

These are good questions.

I have often wondered whether really any one person or body is in charge in Iran - or whether there is any coordination between elements of the Government at all. Or is it the case that someone does some stupid thing - and then others (who may really disagree with whatever has been done) are kind of forced to support the act, even argue a case for the act, because they are afraid to be seen as conflicting with one another.

The photo of Khamenei after last Friday prayers seems to lead me further in the direction of this thought. I can even imagine him angrily asking those questions that you have posed - and thinking "How am I going to smooth this over? How am I going to think something up to indicate to the World that everything in Iran is in good order?, when it is really a total shambles.

Did anybody notice how the camera captured that moment in time ? - there appears to be some trying to calm Khamenei down, some looking on despondently and some trying to get out of that place quickly. Khamenei did not look like a "Supreme Leader" and nobody was paying any "homage" to him. In fact, he appeared to me to be someone who was being left behind - and he knows it.

Barry