Iran Special: Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Strategy of "We Are Still Standing (for the Revolution)"

And so another statement, accompanied by a picture of the two men warmly greeting each other, from Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

The announcement followed the now established pattern of declarations from opposition figures.

1. Use current events to highlight the declining legitimacy of the Government, highlighting the attacks on key groups in the Islamic Republic

Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 June)

"No government or authority can remove the love of these guardians of the religion from the hearts of the believers by relying on a group of thugs."

In this case, Mousavi and Karroubi highlight the Government's campaign against marja (senior clerics). This month's verbal and physical assaults on the reputations and homes of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri are a solid platform for an appeal to the public which is lastly to last throughout the summer.

Doing so, Mousavi and Karroubi are claiming that they are defending the Islamic Republic, which is being torn down by a Government which should be upholding its values and Constitution. Some would-be analysts of Iranian politics argue that the opposition is "counter-revolutionary"; Mousavi and Karroubi point to the strategy that the opposition is still "revolutionary" in its pursuit of the goals of 1979. Equally important, they are pointedly noting that the Government is attacking figures, including Khomeini, who were and are "the Revolution".

2. Make a political move to get support from those who are not in the opposition

"Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi expressed their sorrow and concern for the weakening of the legislative branch....some don’t even respect the stature of this Parliament."

At one level, this is a continuation of the argument that the Government is attacking the institutions of the Islamic Republic and the defenders of the Revolution.

At another, however, it is a tactical approach to "conservatives" and even "principlists" within the system. The headline story in Iran at the moment is the running battle between Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over economic and social policy and institutions; this week's furour over the supervision of Islamic Azad University is only the latest symbol in the contest.

There is no chance that Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament, and Mousavi and Karroubi will ever be ideological brethren. But there is more than a chance that they could share the common goal of wanting to remove Ahmadinejad from power and change the approach of the Government to its relationship with the legislative and judicial branches.

3. Highlight basic civil rights

"Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi pointed out the government’s denying the people’s legal and legitimate request to hold a silent demonstration, while an organized group, in complete security, attacks whoever and wherever they want."

The reference to the anniversary of the election, 22 Khordad/12 June, is in part a defensive move by Mousavi and Karroubi, covering their decision not to proceed with a march in defiance of the Government's refusal to issue a permit.

At the same time, however, the approach is to highlight that the battle for civil rights is more than one occasion for demonstration. The references to "the current security trend and recent arrests... [and] the chaotic situation of the detention centres and prisons" brings Mousavi and Karroubi back to their fundamental challenge.

This is not a legitimate Government, for it does not guarantee and safeguard the rights must be part of the Revolution and its incarnation in the Islamic Republic: When Mousavi and Karroubi call on Iran's judiciary "to move toward restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms", they are both making another tactical approach to those in the "establishment" --- you do not have to bow down to this illegitimate President and his advisors --- and pointing to the heartbeat of civil rights within the opposition.

And this strategy is not separate from the 2009 election and "Where is My Vote?"; it is vitally linked to it. For how can Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sustain his cry of "24 million supported me" when that support is seen today in the refusal of dissent and the accumulation of political prisoners?

4. The Green Movement lives because the campaign for civil rights lives

"Mousavi and Karroubi once again emphasized othe rightful demands of the Green Movement and the role of promoting awareness and knowledge in the society about the assured rights and fundamental freedoms of all classes of the society."

This approach may not be enough for many in the opposition, inside and outside Iran. As the row over Nikahang Kowsar's cartoon on Mousavi and "Statement 3000" illustrated, Mousavi and Karroubi's approach may be seen as the unacceptable of the "gradual" or even a tacit resignation covered over by their words. The issue of whether they should have taken to the streets in June (and, in the case of Mousavi, for months before that) is still fresh.

Strategically, this latest statement remains vague on specific steps and demands. Indeed, the last clear declaration by Mousavi of those demands may be his statement at the start of January. And Mousavi and Karroubi's clear line of working within --- in fact, exalting --- the Islamic Republic will not be to the taste of those who want a greater revision or even sweeping away of the system.

At this point, however, Mousavi and Karroubi are working in an Iran where many activists have been imprisoned or have left the country, where the Government has tried to shut down communications beyond the most "reliable" of outlets, where the security forces are omni-present not only on possible dates for marches but in all aspects of Iranian life.

In that environment, the imperative may to be grabbing whatever space to declare: We are legitimate; the Government is not. We uphold the Republic; the Government does not. We believe in the rights and pursuit of discussion, dialogue, justice; the Government believes in the baton and the jail cell.

For better or worse, the immediate purpose of this statement could be: We are still standing.

Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 June)

From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

In today’s joint meeting Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi emphasized on the following issues:

Emphasize the respect for Marja (Grand Ayatollahs) and their high stature in Shi’a:Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi pointed out the history of Shi’a [religion] since Imam Mahdi’s (Shi’a's hidden Imam) absence and the establishment of the religious scholars. They considered Marja as one of the most important foundations of the society; Shi’as have respected this for centuries and have never allowed and will not allow any person or group to insult the stature of Marja.

They emphasized that no government or authority can remove the love of these guardians of the religion from the hearts of the believers by relying on a group of thugs, and therefore they condemned the premeditated unprecedented insult and offence of a group sponsored by the government and their illegal entering to the house of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and destroying the properties in his office as well as the house of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

They also considered repeated insults made by a group of newspapers affiliated with the authorities against the great Marajeh of Shi’a and their attempts to destroy and weaken the stature of Marja as the basis for these events. After the attack on the houses of Marajeh and insult against the grandson of Imam Khomeini (founder of the Islamic Republic), the judiciary, instead of prosecuting the attackers, shut down the office of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. This offered harmony between these foot soldiers (thugs) and some of the authorities for attacking the stature of Marajeh.

Weakening the stature of the Parliament is cause for concern and sorrow: Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi expressed their sorrow and concern for the weakening of the legislative branch [by the Government], which started by making an excuse out of the bequeathing of Azad University to charity. They emphasized that, according to the Constitution, the legislative branch acts via the Parliament and this Parliament approves laws for all public affairs as asserted by the Constitution.

However, some don’t even respect the stature of this Parliament. The criteria of who can elect and who can be elected have not been followed (because of the role of the Guardian Council, whose members are openly supporters of this Government and appointed by the Supreme Leader, which decides and pre-approves who can go on the ballot and oversees the elections).

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi pointed out the government’s denying the people’s legal and legitimate request to hold a silent demonstration, while an organized group, in complete security, attacks whoever and wherever they want. Karroubi and Mousavi emphasised that it is necessary that everyone stands against these kinds of actions that diminish the stature of the legislative branch and the ability of the members of the Parliamentand that they don’t allow those fleeing from the law to achieve their illegitimate goals with these kinds of methods.

They also emphasized that, if using goons and aggressors becomes the inauspicious norm, there will be no dignity for any person or entity....Today, not only the people and those objecting to the fraud in the election are under attack by these shameful behaviours, but also the family of Imam Khomeini and the respected Marja of Shi’a. Even the Parliament are not immune.

The inconsiderate remarks by the administration and its costs for our national interest: Mousavi and Karroubi parties not only considered these remarks in conflict with rich and ancient culture of Islamic Iran but also recognized them as causes for moral and material damages to the country in the international arena, endangering national interests. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi karroubi...expressed hope that in today’s special situation the authorities, instead of creating tensions, act to resolve the country’s important economic, social, and international problems by using capabilities in different fields.

Condemning recent arrests: The current security trend and recent arrests, especially the arrests of a number of outstanding and elite students of the country. were discussed, and both men pointed to the chaotic situation of the detention centres and prisons which have imposed hard conditions on country’s political prisoners. They called this trend a contradiction to the country’s rules and regulations.

Mousavi and Karroubi also called on judicial authorities to take action in accordance with the inherent duties of that branch to be a defender of the individual and social rights, to be responsible for establishing justice, to move toward restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms, to act accordingly. By hearing the words of the political prisoners, the judiciary should lay grounds for their unconditional release.

Efforts for promoting awareness about the fundamental rights and freedoms, especially among various unions and groups: At the end of this joint meeting, both men once again emphasized othe rightful demands of the Green Movement and the role of promoting awareness and knowledge in the society about the assured rights and fundamental freedoms of all classes of the society.They called on all groups, especially unions, to make efforts to raise awareness among the various layers of the society about their rightful and legitimate demands.

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Baghi Freed

2010 GMT: We've posted the English text of this morning's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Analysis is likely to follow tomorrow.

1815 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Documentary filmmaker Mohammad Ali Shirzadi has been released from detention. He leaves prison on the same day as Emad Baghi, whom he served as cameraman during the journalist's interview with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri (for which Baghi was allegedly arrested).

NEW Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 June)
NEW Iran Eyewitness: An “Army of Strollers” and Allah-o-Akbar on 12 June (Tehran Bureau)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard & the US: Oil Spills Are Thicker than Hostility?
Iran: To Lead or to Follow? 4 Cartoons on Mousavi and the Greens
The Latest from Iran (22 June): Rumbling On

1630 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting. The Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a Persian summary of this morning's discussion.

1340 GMT: Today's Nuclear Posture. Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, has declared, "We have already produced 17 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium, and we have the ability to produce 5 kg each month but we do not rush."

Salehi said in February that the Tehran medical reactor required around 1.5 kg of fuel per month. By early April Iran had produced 5.7 kg, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

1240 GMT: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (and Even Bigger News --- Baghi is Free). Apologies for limited service because of academic business. Let's catch up....

The first item to note is one that might turn the day. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have met this morning to discuss plans.

But, for the moment and while we await further information, let's dwell on this information: journalist Emaduddin Baghi (pictured after his release) has been freed after six months in detention. According to his website, Baghi posted a $200,000 bail and is facing trial on 3 July.

1120 GMT: Economic Front. Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani has announced that Iran has doubled the denomination of its highest banknote to 100,000 rials (10,000 tomans or about $10).

The move has prompted speculation that it is due to inflationary pressures in Iran. The Iranian Government claims that the annual rise in prices is about 10 percent, though some analysts think the actual figure may be much higher.

0845 GMT: After a  series of clashes within the "establishment", a slow start to Wednesday. There is still chatter about the Parliament v. President dispute over control of Iran's largest university, as well as the fight over economic policy. Given Ali Larijani's defiant position on Tuesday, including a speech to the Majlis rejecting any interference --- except for the supervision of the Guardian Council --- with legislation, it looks like the ball is back in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's court.

On the opposition side, we are looking for any follow-up to Mohammad Khatami's Tuesday statement. On the surface, the speech maintained pressure on the Government through the criticism of attacks on senior clerics and tried to sustain the spirit of resistance with the invocation of freedom and civil rights.

Meanwhile...

Political Prisoner Watch

Rah-e-Sabz claims that all leave for political prisoners has been suspended.

The website also says that student leader Majid Tavakoli and six other prisoners have been transferred to the "high-security" Section 350 of Evin Prison.

International Front

Contradicting earlier reports, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said that Islamabad would not suspend a deal with Tehran to construct a gas pipeline by 2014, despite pressure from US officials.

Walking a careful line, Gilani said Pakistan would reconsider the deal if it violated U.N. sanctions, but the country was "not bound to follow" unilateral U.S. measures. He said media reports claiming, from Gilani's statements, that Pakistan would heed the warning of President Obama's envoy Richard Holbrooke were incorrect.

Meanwhile, Iranian state media is playing up the meeting of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, with Syrian Vice-President Farouq ash-Shara. Not many details on specific topics, however, beyond "the latest international and regional developments".

Iran Eyewitness: An "Army of Strollers" and Allah-o-Akbar on 12 June (Tehran Bureau)

"A Contributor in Tehran" writes for Tehran Bureau:

"The most stable and democratic country in the world." Thus Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the man who last year was "reelected" (many say "selected") as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, described his nation at a recent press conference in Istanbul. Ahmadinejad, of course, is hardly renowned for well-considered, precise, statesmanlike observations. In fact, he is notorious for quite the opposite: making off-the-cuff statements whose substance bears little relation to reality. Yet the depiction of Iran in such terms days before the 12 June anniversary of the vehemently disputed presidential election was an extraordinary distortion of the truth, even by Mr. Ahmadinejad's loose standards. The truth of his statement, needless to say, was tested on the anniversary.

As expected, "the most stable and democratic" government on earth failed miserably. It denied permission to the opposition to hold a simple peaceful rally in order to commemorate last year's election --- even though, according to the Iranian Constitution, such gatherings do not require government approval to begin with. For weeks, security and other officials had warned that the regime would not tolerate any protest rally on June 12. The Interior Ministry, raising some ludicrous technical excuses, refused the permit, as it had done similarly on numerous occasions in the past.



By contrast, government-sanctioned rallies and ceremonial events, such as the one that took place on 4 June  --- the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic -- enjoy the regime's full support and sponsorship. On that occasion, hundreds of thousands, many of them members of the Basij militia, were mobilized throughout the country to travel, at government expense, to Tehran to attend the commemoration and listen to the Friday Prayer sermon delivered by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Khomeini's successor as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. This particular event was to be a showcase for the power and "popularity" of the regime in advance of 12 June. The initial plan was thus to assemble about two million people from throughout Iran for the event. By independent accounts, the regime fell far short of its goal.

Just a couple of days prior to the election anniversary, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, two of Ahmadinejad's rivals in last year's election and the de facto leaders of the Green Movement, the popular reform movement that emerged following the rigged vote, announced that because of their concern for people's safety they would cancel the rally they had planned. They asked their supporters to pursue their struggle for change through means less risky than participation in a public protest that the government was determined to violently suppress.

Given that most opposition political figures and activists have been imprisoned or rendered inactive over the past year, and that many political parties and civil society organizations have been banned, there are few avenues available to those opposing the regime to communicate with one another and organize en masse. The few Reformist newspapers face heavy censorship and are under constant threat of closure if they cross the government's ambiguous "red lines." Foreign news and analysis broadcasts, like the popular Persian services of the BBC and VOA, are routinely jammed -- especially when an important day, such as 12 June, approaches. The Internet is often strangled and access to most sites with uncensored information is systematically denied through a pervasive filtering system (though many have by now learned how to circumvent it). In short, the regime exerts its full power to deny people the means and even the hope of organizing peaceful protests, short of risking their livelihoods and their very lives.

Nonetheless, the message somehow spread that a silent protest would be held in Tehran from 4 to 8 p.m. on June 12, a Saturday. It was understood that Mousavi and Karroubi, as responsible leaders, could not ask their supporters to jeopardize their lives by attending a formally declared rally. Yet people concluded that they could make their presence felt and in the process expose the regime's true anti-democratic nature, its illegitimacy, and the extent of its fear by simply "strolling" peacefully and silently from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi (Freedom) Square. The route, around ten kilometers long, was chosen in part because along it lies Ferdowsi Square and Enghelab Square, where two major universities are located.

Read rest of article....

Iran: To Lead or to Follow? 4 Cartoons on Mousavi and the Greens

There was a commotion last week over the first of these cartoons, drawn by Nikahang Kowsar, showing Mir Hossein Mousavi putting out "Statement #300". The reformist site Rooz had posted it but, after pro-regime media picked up on the cartoon as a sign of tension and decline in the opposition, withdrew Kowsar's caricature from its website.

Yet this has not been the only cartoon raising the political question --- tactical and strategic --- of Mousavi's place in the opposition and the Green Movement. We post three others which point to the important and ongoing discussion not only of "leadership" and activism but also of the Green Movement's relationship to groups pressing for political, legal, and civil rights in Iran.