UPDATED Afghanistan: Karzai's Pre-Emptive Political Strike

Update (3 March): Senior UN official Alain says it will be nearly impossible to hold credible elections in Afghanistan in April for logistical and technical reasons as well as the prevailing security situation.

In many "Western" systems, the "snap" election is a time-honoured prerogative of the President/Prime Minister. If a leader is in a strong but possibly short-lived political position, or conversely if he/she is in trouble but faces worse times ahead, then Parliament is dissolved and everyone heads to the polls. However, when an Afghan President, particularly one who has lost the support of the foreign governments who brought him to power, calls such an election, it's a much different matter.

On Sunday, Hamid Karzai wrong-footed diplomats, covert operators, and observers, as well as his domestic opponents by declaring he would go to the polls, four months earlier than expected. Legally, Karzai was not only within the letter of the Constitution but upholding it, as his term in office expires on 21 May. US and NATO representatives complained immediately, however, that they could not ensure security.

This, of course, is an excuse to cover political objections to Karzai's move --- the military campaign against the Taliban and other insurgents will be far from won by August. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, an opponent of Karzai's, was more honest in his criticsm: he declared that he would not stand in a "Zimbabwe-type" election designed to keep the current Government in power.

Karzai has calculated that, if only a portion of the stories of a political challenge backed and funded by the US and other foreign countries are true, he is better off not allowing the opposition five months to organise. Conversely, Washington now faces the prospect of several more years of an Afghan leader who has been far from unquestioning in his co-operation with American power.

So now we have the delicious --- if you go in for political intrigue --- prospect of the US working with Afghan representatives in their review of Afghanistan/Pakistan policy whilst having that policy reframed by Karzai's surprise initiative.

More than seven years ago, when Karzai emerged as the US choice to lead "liberated" Afghanistan, America praised his political acumen. One wonders if the word "irony" will creep into their reports today.