The Latest from Iran (12 March): Assessments

2015 GMT: Apologies to all, but the fatigue monster grabbed me as soon as I walked through home's front door. Back to normal service in AM --- best wishes and thanks to everyone for your support this week.

1650 GMT: Why Are Detainees Being Released? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty ask the question we've been pondering and get interesting answers....

Former reformist legislator Fatemeh Haghightajoo says it is the result of an understanding reached “at the highest levels of the Iranian establishment. I believe [former President] Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the so-called pragmatic conservatives have played a prominent role."



Paris-based reformist journalist Seraj Mirdamadi sees a show of strength, “The establishment is trying to show itself as having the upper hand following the engineered state demonstrations marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution and demonstrate that it has reached victory.”

Mirdamadi adds that others will be kept in prison as a warning to would-be protesters. That is especially true for those who have used tough words against the Government and the Supreme Leader, with student activists Ahmad Zeidabadi and Majid Tavakoli and refomist journalist Issa Saharkhiz likely to remain in jail. (http://www.rferl.org/content/Why_is_Iran_Releasing_Some_Postelection_Detainees_/1982200.html)

1610 GMT: Economy Watch. Reuters offers a summary of companies who have recently ceased or altered business dealings with Iran.

* Royal Dutch Shell has stopped gasoline sales to Iran
* Oil trading firms Trafigura and Vitol are stopping gasoline sales to Iran
* Ingersoll-Rand, a maker of air compressors and cooling systems for buildings and transport, said it will no longer allow subsidiaries to sell parts or products to Tehran.
* Oilfield services company Smith International said on 1 March it was actively pursuing the termination of all its activities in Iran.
* Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment, said on 1 March it would prevent foreign subsidiaries from selling equipment to independent dealers who resell it to Tehran. [ID:nN01245727]

* German insurers Munich Re and Allianz said in February they had halted all remaining insurance business in Iran.
* Reliance Industries stopped gasoline sales to Iran from its giant refining complex in May 2009. (However, Malaysian state oil firm Petronas was said in February to be shipping a gasoline cargo produced by Reliance into Iran.)
* German engineering conglomerate Siemens said in January it would not accept further orders from Iran.
* Glencore ceased gasoline supply to Iran in November 2009
* British Petroleum stopped supplying Iran in 2008

1545 GMT: Back from academic work and finally on way home.

While I've been away, Iranian authorities have assured that the "death penalty is essential 2 public security and applied only after exhaustive judicial proceedings". A drug trafficker was hung in public in Ahwaz on Friday. (http://bit.ly/9S2wSe)

Reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former Deputy Minister of Interior, received a hero's welcome after his temporary release from detention for Iranian New Year. (http://tinyurl.com/yj8rh83)

Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, jailed for 15 years last autumn, may be released on $500,000 bail. (http://bit.ly/bUQRdn)

0755 GMT: Very Significant. Reporters Without Borders have awarded the first Netizen Prize to the Iranian creators of the website Change for Equality, established in 2006 to campaign for changes in laws that discriminate against women.

Not Very Significant. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says on national television, “The name of the Persian Gulf is so irrefutable that it is non-negotiable."

0725 GMT: Opening thoughts this morning on the significant and the peripheral...

There is a valuable discussion amongst readers in our separate entry on Gender Issues and the Green Movement; however, I also find myself distracted, as I've noted in a brief post, by the focus on discussion in Washington on the nuclear issue.

The peripheral pops up this morning, again from Washington, in a muddled piece in Foreign Policy which proclaims, "It's hard to sign up with the folks who seem all too willing to bomb Iran, but the neoconservatives...have a well-grounded view of the Iranian regime," but has little consciousness of Tehran beyond its supposed "leadership".

So it's back to the significant, if blackly comic, news that an Iranian football journalist, Abdollah Sadoughi, has been released after seven weeks. His crime? He had published posters supporting the Iranian-Azerbaijani football team, Traktor Sazi, in Tabriz; for the Iranian authorities, this became "acts against national security" and "supporting "Pan-Turkism". (EA readers may recall a video we posted months ago of a protest against an Ahmadinejad speech in Tabriz with the chants of "Traktor! Traktor!")

Three members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters --- Saeed Haeri, Mehrdad Rahimi, and Saeed Kalanaki --- have been released on bails of around $100,000.

Comments

[Anthony]

Fathollah-Nejad posting on Juan Cole's blog: "Why 'Smart Sanctions' on Iran are Actually Stupid

http://www.juancole.com/2010/03/fathollah-nejad-why-smart-sanctions-on.html

[Doug]

RE: 0725 GMT: Opening thoughts this morning on the significant and the peripheral…
So it’s back to the significant, if blackly comic, news that an Iranian football journalist, Abdollah Sadoughi, has been released after seven weeks. His crime? He had published posters supporting the Iranian-Azerbaijani football team, Traktor Sazi, in Tabriz...

     This might explain why I haven't heard from my friend, who reports on Mullah Nasrudin, in a long time.
     It's been a long time, but finally my source has gotten a story to me which I'll relate at a later time when it seems relevant to a whatever... but lately he's gotten very clumsy in his smuggling operation and he almost got caught a few times. He calls himself Fez this week.
     Fez has been smuggling donkeys from Azerbaijan(province) to Azerbaijan(Country) for several years now. This last time, Fez rode with great confidence to the border on his donkey with his pet parrot resting on his shoulder. As soon as he reached the border guard, the parrot inexplicably made the sound of a tiger which made the donkey rear up in fright and throw Fez to the ground. Fez started screaming in pain that he had broken his arm, but the parrot without mercy began saying, "Find the drugs, find the drugs, find the drugs."
     The guards searched the saddlebags but couldn't find anything. The guards consulted an official and were inclined to beat him to death or arrest him, Fez thought.
     But one of them, kicking Fez, asked, "Does he say anything else?"
     "He can say verses from the Koran," Fez said.
     "Show us," the guard said.
     Fez said, "God is Great," and expected the parrot to start saying an appropriate verse from the Koran but instead kept squawking repeatedly, "Traktor Sazi, Traktor Sazi: All of Azerbaijan feels pride with you". The parrot was relentless, buzzing around their ears. Finally, the guards seized his donkey, told him to take his parrot and go, and kicked him across the border like a football.
     Poor Fez lost a donkey but smuggled another parrot across the border. And the parrot has memorized another story which Fez has given me for later...

[Catherine]

I kind of hate to post such a serious item right after Doug's donkey piece, but hey, that's life.

More from the very significant category:
Report on Iran: More than 400 Executions in 2009.
The year 2009, according to the annual report from Iran Human Rights, has seen the highest number of executions in the past decade.

HRANA - Iran Human Rights, the organization that works on the files of executed Iranian citizens, reported at least 400 executions for the year 2009.

Read the Summary of the Annual Report about Execution in Iran—2009
http://persian2english.com/?p=8236

[Arshama]

Kabul Watch

The Afghan daily "Hasht-e sobh" (8 am) has an article "Here is Kabul, the voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran" http://www.8am.af/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10257:1388-12-19-19-14-09&catid=1:2008-10-31-09-36-47&Itemid=487

Hugs and kisses for 8 am :-)

[Catherine]

Arshama,
RE the photo in the article, last pm I was watching a TV report on AN's visit showing him and Karzai walking together from AN's airplane (I think) and greeting all kinds of officials, and I couldn't believe how TINY Ahmadinejad actually is! Karzai, who is not a tall man, literally dwarfed him. Now I know where all that anger comes from ...... ;-)

[Publicola]

Emad al-Din Baghi, personally commissioned by Chomeini to establish the number of persons sentenced do death under the Shah, stated that
the number of the persons executed from 1941 to 1979 amounted to 341 (three hundred forty-one) .
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Reza_Pahlavi#Opposition_und_Gewalt

According to political historian Ervand Abrahamian, "whereas
less than 100 political prisoners had been executed between 1971 and 1979,
more than 7900 were executed between 1981 and 1985. ...
the prison system was centralized and drastically expanded ...
Prison life was drastically worse under the Islamic Republic than under the Pahlavis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran#Capital_punishment

[Doug]

Catherine,
Karzai is such a pompous disgusting, over-educated aristocrat. He feels so superior to the masses that he feels he can make power deals on behalf of the lower classes of the fantasy future. But in the midst of today's corruption, his deals with various ethnic groups and tribes and "good" Taliban and his balance of power politics with various countries, he enables horrible suffering and oppression of women. I can't understand all of these "noble" diplomat men around the world who make deals and compromises that destroy the souls of women. Some "ethnic" customs are not charming or cute or moral. Some aspects of politically correct cultures should not be tolerated or respected for the sake of diplomacy. Barbarity and crudeness comes in many forms. Some well-educated people are educated in Evil. Some aspects of official religions are evil. Diplomats should stew their carrots carefully in the stew of negotiation but should sharpen their sticks...

[Adam]

re: story at 1650

This seems to further back up my observation of a few days ago that Khamenei's sudden openness to Rafsanjani/Rezai-led electoral reform may indicate a back-room deal. Electoral reform and the release of political prisoners (while still too slow and incomplete for anyone's taste) would likely be the key points of a deal between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, so this makes perfect sense.
I should note that the demands of the Green Movement for political freedoms and human rights still haven't been met, so even a deal between Rafsanjani and Khamenei would not be the end by any means. Further, the fact that Ahmadinejad (the very symbol of the regime's fraud and illegitimacy) is still technically in the presidency leaves the government as illegitimate and the regime in a constant state of existential crisis.

[Arshama]

1610 GMT: Economy Watch

Scott,

Thank you so much for this useful summary, even though being presumably busy with changing trains and planes for the past few days ;-)
With this impressive list, sanctions against Iran are no longer a vague idea, but have already started.

To this I should like to add the news about US Defence Secretary Robert Gates' tour through Arab states to ask them to reassure Beijing that they would be prepared to offset any shortfall in Iranian crude shipments.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=228584

Really bad news for all Iranians on the eve of Nouruz, but I still hope that the new Iranian year 1389, beginning on 21 March, will also herald the Green voice of freedom.

Arshama

[Megan]

Adam,

Electoral reforms is superficial and for the purpose of fooling people. Islamic Republic constitution gives absolute veto power to Vlayet-e-Faghih and in this case to Khamenei. That means he decides even which candidates can or cannot enter the election process. He can even nullify people votes as he sees fit. The real reform is when they get rid of the expediency counsel and eliminate office of SL or severely limit authorities of that office in the political process.

Behind the door deals have not been done for the good of people but it is done for the benefit of power brokers. It is as if mafia bosses negotiated on dividing the territories so they can all stay in business. It is crystal clear that people who have suffered so much will be the real losers of these negotiations. The token release of political prisoners who could be arrested again and again is an insult to the intelligence of Iranians. It is my hope that people see through this and stay committed in uprooting this corrupt system of government. I know it is a tall order and it is asking much too much of Iranians who suffered for too long and have lost much but I know it can be done.

[Megan]

Doug,

“I can’t understand all of these “noble” diplomat men around the world who make deals and compromises that destroy the souls of women.”

I hear you. Those who make a pact with the devil are the devil. Devil cannot be noble.

[Catherine]

Doug,
Your description of Karzai fits to a tee. And *this* was the best puppet the international community could find?

(Naturally I'm being sarcastic; I know the US+international community have vastly different criteria than we do!)