The Latest from Iran (19 March): Untamed?

2120 GMT: Mahmoud Goes to the Country? OK, it's not just Internet chatter. EA readers bring me up to speed: in a televised statement on Friday night, President Ahmadinejad set out the possibility of a referendum on his proposal to control $40 billion from subsidy reductions (the Parliament only gave him $20 billion).

And Ahmadinejad wasn't pulling punches: he said that his "conservative" opponents in Parliament were verging on "treason" with exaggerated statements of the inflationary potential of his plan. Fortunately, he reassured, their economic estimates were not correct.

NEW Iran: Ethnic Minorities and the Green Movement (Ghajar)
NEW Iran Academic Question: Suspending North American Studies?
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi’s and Rahnavard’s New Year Messages (18 March)
Iran: Reading Mousavi & Karroubi “The Fight Will Continue” (Shahryar)
Iran & the US: The Missed Nuclear Deal (Slavin)
The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

2110 GMT: Containing the Poet. Another story to pick up --- National Public Radio has a profile of 82-year-old Simin Behbahani, the poet who is so dangerous that Iranian authorities seized her passport as she was about to board a flight for an awards ceremony in Paris.


2100 GMT: Back from a movie break. (Iran as Wonderland? Discuss.) Little happening this evening, though there is Internet chatter that Ahmadinejad may go to the country for a referendum on his subsidy reform proposals.

The break is useful to pick up on a couple of important stories. Persian2English has posted an English translation of the Committee on Human Rights Reporters statement of 17 March, responding to the regime's efforts to break human rights activists with charges of their role in US-backed "cyber-warfare":

Exaggerated claims that human rights activists are connected to foreign or political organizations have been repeatedly disseminated by Tehran’s prosecutor, domestic and military media, intelligence interrogators, and internet bandits. No plausible or credible evidence has been introduced to back their accusations of blatant lies....

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters has indicated in their mission statement, in interviews, and in their official announcements that their activities are limited to human rights issues, and they are proud of their work.

1615 GMT: And Via Satellite. European Union ambassadors have declared in Brussels that the EU is determined to end Iran's "unacceptable" jamming of satellite broadcasting and Internet censorship: "The EU calls on the Iranian authorities to stop the jamming of satellite broadcasting and Internet censorship and to put an end to this electronic interference immediately."

1520 GMT: Internet Diplomacy? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in an interview with Bloomberg, has highlighted the US Government's support of initiatives to get around Iranian restrictions on Internet access.

Clinton declared, “We’re doing a lot, let me just put it at that, because we think it is in the interests of American values and American strategic concerns to make sure that people have a chance to know what is going on outside of Iran." She claimed that a license had been issued to an (unnamed) company to boost access. Clinton added:

I’m sure that the Iranian authorities will do what they can to block any move that we make, so it’s like a chess game. We’ll go back and make another move, because we think we owe it to the Iranians, particularly during this period when there is so much at stake

1430 GMT: The President and the Clerics. An EA reader brings up to speed on the Ahmadinejad visit to Qom: Khabar Online has pictures of the President with Ayatollahs Mesbah Yazdi, Nouri-Hamedani and Jafar Sobhani, as well as a group shot.

Ahmadinejad's deputy for religious affairs claims that the meeting's atmosphere was good with the President "convincingly" answering some complaints from the clerics. The marjas brought up the people’s income problems, which should be solved, and cultural matters. AN promised to deal with these and also to transform Qom into the most beautiful town of the country.

Another meeting is planned with Jame’eye Modarressin (Association of the Teachers and Researchers of Qom).

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists in Iran have issued a list of 2560 detainees for the Iranian Year 1388 (March 2009-March 2010). The large majority were arrested after the election.

0855 GMT:  Political Prisoner Watch. Philosophy student Ali Moazzami has been released on bail; however, other detainees such as journalist Emadeddin Baghi remain behind bars for Nowruz.

0845 GMT: Remembering. Mourners gathered yesterday at the graves of post-election martyrs, placing flowers and cards.

In front of Evin Prison, relatives gathered to demand the release of detainees, including Ms Elham Ahsani, supporter of the Mothers of Mourning.

0825 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Here's the Rumour of the Day --- Islamic Republic News Agency claims Hashemi Rafsanjani flew to Kish Island to meet his son Mehdi Hashemi, who wants to return illegally to mainland Iran via Dubai.

AFP picks up on the news, which we reported last night, that Hossein Marashi, a relative of Rafsanjani's wife and an ally of the former President, has been jailed for one year for "spreading propaganda".

0820 GMT: Economy Watch. Jahangir Amuzegar offers a broad analysis of the state of Iran's economy and the problems it poses for President Ahmadinejad.

0815 GMT: Qom Absentee. Looks like one person who was not at the President's meetings with senior clerics (see 0645 GMT) was Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Khabar Online, unsurprisingly, surmises that this is because the President was firmly told to leave Rahim-Mashai behind.

0755 GMT: On the International Front. Lots of media attention to apparent tensions in Moscow between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian hosts over Iran. The immediate focus is on whether Russia will finally help Tehran to bring the Bushehr nuclear power plant on-line (Helpful Hint: the Russians are playing a double game, trying to delay completion while publicly declaring that they will ensure Bushehr will start operations in 2010).

The wider issue --- overlooked in The New York Times summary --- is whether Russia will give public backing to an expanded sanctions programme. The dispute in Moscow moves the arrow towards "No".

0745 GMT: Taming the Internet? The New York Times highlights the ongoing battle of the opposition for access to and dissemination of information with "Iran’s Opposition Seeks More Help in Cyberwar With Government". The article highlights both the steps forward and the sizeable challenge that remains. The take-away quote from Mehdi Yahyanejad of the Persian-language news portal Balatarin:

The Islamic Republic is very efficient in limiting people’s access to these sources, and Iranian people need major help. We need some 50 percent of people to be able to access independent news sources other than the state-controlled media.

0730 GMT: Pick Your Analysis. In sharp contrast to the analyses of other "Western" observers, Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor asks, "Does Iran’s most powerful man – whose official title is God’s Deputy on Earth, infallible to his ardent followers – think he is winning?"

Caution is needed here as well. Peterson's supporting evidence of "several close observers" is primarily two unnamed Iranian academics, and some of their declarations are sweeping:

[The Supreme Leader is] in triumphant mood right now. But deep down, he knows he’s lost the war of legitimacy and popularity....Deep inside –-- this is my belief –-- he does not have a very good sleep at night. He’s very angry –-- that’s what I can see in his face. The slogans they leveled against him, the image he’s got –-- he’s lost a lot of the popularity he had.

More useful may be assessments which don't rely on speculating inside Khamenei's head:

It’s almost like one voice coming out of the establishment, state-run television, all their hard-line newspapers, saying that "we managed to crush them”

At the same time, worries are clear to see. They are not in a state of panic [as] in the past, but are still on very high alert. They feel that enemies are organizing, and reformers are just pawns.

0645 GMT: We start the morning clearing away the underbrush of distorted or wayward analyses of Iran's internal situation.

Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett have written another hit piece, with weakly-supported polemic posing as analysis, claiming the death of the Green Movement.

Far more seriously (since I am not sure key circles in Washington are still paying attention to the Leveretts' repetitions), Najmeh Bozorgmehr of the Financial Times, who has been a quality front-line journalist in Iran, has carried out an examination of the opposition which gets muddled in editing. Bozorgmehr's evaluation is sharp and incisive in places, such as "The Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people." She adds, "Iranian analysts and western diplomats doubt if the regime has snuffed out the challenge of the opposition."

However, Bozorgmehr also has some loose, unsupported sentences, "Reformists concede that the intensifying radicalism of demonstrations helped Mr Ahmadinejad to shore up support." And the headlines are caricatures: the Financial Times goes for "Iran's Regime Contains Opposition", while the Irish Times creates, "Hard Line Seems to Have Tamed Iran's Green Movement".

Elsewhere, others have not been tamed. Journalist and activist Isa Saharkhiz, who has been detained for eight months, has told his family that he went on hunger strike Thursday morning and that other prisoners in Section 350 of Evin Prison will join him to protest illegal detention and inhumane conditions.

And President Ahmadinejad has tried to carry out his own taming by visiting senior clerics in Qom. The Financial Times reports that Ahmadinejad met six marja but gives no details beyond that. There is only the cryptic sentence from an analyst, "A massive lobby by the most influential authorities happened to convince the clergy to see the president."

That just raises another question: which "most influential authorities"? We are monitoring.

Comments

[Arshama]

@ AN visiting senior clerics in Qom

Khabar Online reports that AN's peach (Rahim Mashaie), who normally accompanies him, was not present at this meeting. No reason for that has been given, but KhO points to some clerics' criticism of RM. http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-50198.aspx

[Barry]

"[The Supreme Leader is] in triumphant mood right now. But deep down, he knows he’s lost the war of legitimacy and popularity….Deep inside –– this is my belief –– he does not have a very good sleep at night. He’s very angry –– that’s what I can see in his face. The slogans they leveled against him, the image he’s got –– he’s lost a lot of the popularity he had."

Think about it for a little while.

Some time in the past you were just another one of the troops. Doing things that you thought needed to be done. Doing a good job maybe?

Then one day, somebody - maybe a group - came up to you and said " ERR - soon we think we are going to need a "SUPREME LEADER" . What do you think about that??

You say : " Do you mean me???" "It's not something that I have given much thought to". "Oh well ! If you insist, I guess I could do it"

Later, you have now been "SUPREME LEADER" for 30 years!! It must have some effect upon you and your ego. I have never been a King or an Emperor or even a Supreme Leader - so I can only guess what impact it would have upon me. Such power!! Can you imagine it?? I would now be living in the realms of past great men - Charlemagne, Julius Caesar, Ghengis Khan, Alexander, Louis xxiv.

Wake up!! I will never be a King or an Emperor or a Supreme Leader - but I can imagine and sympathize with those who do. It must be difficult to accept when your time is up and/or the masses finally come for you - one or the other always happens. The ingrates!!!

Barry

[Catherine]

RE: Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett have written another hit piece, with weakly-supported polemic posing as analysis, claiming the death of the Green Movement.
Far more seriously (since I am not sure key circles in Washington are still paying attention to the Leveretts’ repetitions),

Their blog should really be named 'Battle for Iran' for its repetitive pugnacious stances. Although this article isn't worth reading, the comments are. The Leveretts' readers quickly tire of the Green-bashing and move on to a detailed discussion of the whole situation surrounding Tehran Nuclear reactor. Per the Leveretts' often skewed logic, their blog also fuctions in the opposite way to most others. The most recent comment is at the top, so if you want to follow the discussion you have to start at the bottom. The interesting part starts at: Alan says: March 18, 2010 at 7:54 am, then you have to scroll upwards.

[shangool]

Any ideas about who the six Marjas that met with AN are? And was the meeting sanctioned by SL?

[Scott Lucas]

Shangool,

Important questions. And I don't have an answer to either.

S.

[Arshama]

Shangool, Scott,

Here are some pictures of AN's meeting with the Maraje at Qom, including Ay. Mesbah Yazdi, Nouri Hamedani and Jafar Sobhani: http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-50267.aspx

And here is a short report from AN's deputy for religious affairs, according to which the meeting's atmosphere was good, Maraje had some complaints, which were answered convincingly. Maraje pointed to the people's income problems, which should be solved, and also to cultural matters. AN promised to do so, and also to transform Qom into the most beautiful town of the country (Na Qom khubeh, na Kashan ...) http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-50259.aspx
Another meeting is planned with Jame'eye Modarressin (Association of Clergys?).

@ Kahrizak Watch

Parleman News reports that the court is proving the case of Kahrizak doctor Pourandarjani, who died under suspicious circumstances. This case is handled separately from the culprits case, held in a military court, the details of which shall be reported by the PR of armed forces. http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=9617

Arshama

[Samuel]

Even a military General like Colin Powell doesn't believe that sanctions will work.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-19/powell-says-new-sanctions-on-iran-won-t-stop-nuclear-program.html

Powell Says New Sanctions on Iran Won’t Stop Nuclear Program
March 19, 2010, 12:22 AM EDT
More From Businessweek
Iran’s Defeated Presidential Candidates Consider Joint Strategy
Petraeus Says U.S. Doesn’t See Inevitable Iran Bomb (Update1)
China Willing to Support Tougher Sanctions on Iran, Envoy Says
U.S. Uses Iran to Globalize Its Defenses, Russia Says (Update1)
Iran’s Karrubi Demands Referendum on Election Panel (Update2)
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story digg this save to del.icio.us add to Business Exchange By Chris Dolmetsch

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said new sanctions on Iran to persuade it to stop enriching uranium won’t work because the Islamic republic is “determined to have a nuclear program.”

“I don’t see a set of sanctions coming along that would be so detrimental to the Iranians that they are going to stop that program,” Powell said in an interview with Bloomberg special contributor Judy Woodruff. “So ultimately, the solution has to be a negotiated one.”

The U.S. is working with Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany to persuade Iran to give up enriching uranium, a process that can lead to an atomic bomb. While Iran says it is pursuing enrichment for non-military uses such as energy and medical research, its government hasn’t taken up offers aimed at meeting that goal in other ways.

“The Iranians are determined to have a nuclear program,” Powell said in the interview, which will be broadcast on Bloomberg Television’s “Conversations with Judy Woodruff” this weekend. “Notice I did not say a nuclear weapon. But they are determined to have a nuclear program, notwithstanding the last six or seven years of efforts on our part to keep them from having a nuclear program.”

[Samuel]

Barry,

"Later, you have now been “SUPREME LEADER” for 30 years!!"

Minor, insignificant point but he has not been SL for 30 years. That means he would have been SL since the Revolution.

[Samuel]

Fatima Meer one of the great anti-Apartheid activists of all time passed away recently. Her passing has been overlooked by some considering her early role (especially as a woman) in fighting for African liberation.

Among her many, many positive qualities she was a great friend of the IRI. (Of course the biased report uses the word "apologist")

"After a visit to Iran, she also became a passionate apologist for the Islamic Revolution in the country."

Fatima Meer, leading South African activist, dies at 81
Posted Mar 12, 2010 by ■ Christopher Szabo
Fatima Meer, a leading figure in South Africa’s anti-Apartheid struggle and respected academic, has passed away following a stroke.

Independent Online reports eThekwini Municipality deputy mayor Logie Naidoo announced Friday evening that: ”She passed away about 30 minutes ago.”
Naidoo is also a family friend.
Meer (81) had been in hospital in the coastal town of Durban (part of eThekwini) for some weeks following a stroke.
Meer organised vigils in the 1960s to protest against mass detentions of anti-apartheid activists. They were detained without trial. She was served a ”banning order,” which severely curtailed her civil rights, several times in the 1970s and was detained without trial for trying to organise a political rally with murdered Black Consciousness Movement founder Steve Biko.

Meer narrowly avoided an assassination attempt after her release.

News24 says Meer was a respected academic and her books included the story of an executed ANC guerrilla, Trial of Andrew Zondo, and a biography of Nelson Mandela, titled Higher Than Hope.
She founded the Institute for Black Research at Natal University and also wrote scripts, including one about South African-born Mahatma Gandhi’s experiences in South Africa. The Indian government funded the script and the television production was bought by the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC).
Meer was known for holding some odd views, including her claim that Salman Rushdie was a blasphemer. After a visit to Iran, she also became a passionate apologist for the Islamic Revolution in the country.
Fatima Meer is survived by her husband, Izmail, an active politician, and two daughters, Shehnaaz, a judge, and Shamin, a consultant in social science.

________________________________

Re: her husband:

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2010-03-12-fatima-meers-amazing-journey

Her husband, Ismail, was a famed lawyer/activist who was one of the most energetic ANC members of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial legislature. He died in 2000.

He was arrested and charged with treason together with Mandela and others in the early 1960s.

[Samuel]

Link to Fatima Meer article.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/288989

[Adam]

Samuel,

If sanctions wouldn't work you wouldn't be trying to dissuade us from them, ;)

[Bijan]

Does anyone know if the unnamed company Clinton discusses (see post @1520 GMT) is Haystack?

[hass]

Yes, the only thing the Iranians lack is more access to the Western media so they can learn even more about how the US legally tortures people.

Come on folks, Iran is not the Soviet Union, and there is no "Iron Wall" . Stop trying to apply the Cold War thinking to Iran

[James the Hype]

Hey Scott,

Isn't it nice that Hillary Clinton must follow our blogs? I think we owe Jared Cohen a big slap on the back for all his hard work.

[Mike Dunn]

hass's comment reminded me of http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/011015.html" rel="nofollow">this article I read the other day.

It's long and complex but full of interesting ideas:

"We need to shift our thinking from helping users in closed societies access blocked content to helping publishers reach all audiences. In doing so, we may gain those publishers as a valuable new set of allies as well as opening a new class of technical solutions."

[danial]

@Hass, Mike Dunn

isn't it nice how openly some people conspire against the Iranian people.

Lets show them how free and beautiful(and all that good stuff) the west is but they don't really need to know about the downsides of it all.

refined information if you will.

Also, Mike Dunn

the West (USA really) should adopt a new policy; instead of looking for new allies, stop making enemies

[Adam]

Danial,

People undoubtedly have more freedom of speech, expression, and assembly in the west than they do in Iran today. The downsides of it? Maybe I should instead ask you what is the upside of the mass murder and rape of Iran's young people by Khameneijad? Do you think that makes for a "moral" society?

[germanfool]

asif we (germany and usa) got uncensored media. and for once can our fuckin gouvernments stop trying to bring other nations "peace!" "democracy" and such awesome things if they didnt even asked for it in the first place :D. i mean trying to fuck osama and his friends up was right but what the heck are our troops doing there now since 2004?
peace to the people in usa, i like your free-loving nation, but your military and presidents are gone crazy in the last 2 or 3 decades ,same in europe btw.

and i would urge your president to never meet with this tibet-cia-spy who likes to eat children and dress up in human skin called the dalai lama.( dont think its crazy talk, just open a history book Tibet between 1950-1960 and some documents released by your gov's website acknowledging the fact he was/is on CIA payroll)

and dont try to play your coldwar mindgames with china, they got a total different mentality, i mean theyd rather lose 10 million people than one inch of their property and i would say its understandable, maybe some should open a history book and read what happend in and around china between 1860 or so and 1950.

Finally the best way to get those countries to become democratic is to show them our cultures AND not FORCE em to be like us, they will adapt eventually with time, mind they left the middle age only 50-100 years ago :P. I mean seriously look at the history of wars after the second worldwar ( which im glad we got you brave americans back then) korea, vietnam, somalia, palestine, iraq twice, afgahnistan, laos, i bet the list goes on, not once did someone screamed for help and not one of this wars was either right or won.

[germanfool]

point is WE THE WEST got not one inch of credibility left in asia dont you get this? :D
how many times did we left our so called allies there to literally rott in hell?

and ond the iran thing, dont you get this in the usa? who did support iraq back then? eh? who did help those poor iranians back then NOT ONE SINGLE COUNTRY IN THE WHOLE FUCKING WORLD, so its only natural to ignore all of our words why should they listen, and believe it or not but if your army would try to invade iran ALL people would fight you back, then go on fighting each other. and bare in mind how would you win a war against a country of the size of iraq+afgahnistan they got like 1 000 000 soldiers and like 15 000 000 paramilitary forces every man and women down there is trained to fight us back. they learned a lesson. and i dont think pakistan china would like it either.

my suggestion however is leave em alone, yes there might be cruelties but what would happen if we invade even more deaths and years of misery on atleast one side.
usa lost its divine mandate of beeing world police , maybe your "free" media didnt told you, but bar europe everybody hates usa. and to tell other countries how to treat their citizens is so sad when you should look in your own backyard first... death penalty? racism (dont counter this with obama hahaha) tortures i think you got percentage wise the biggest population in jail worldwide , your first nation people , list goes on, only country to threw 2 atomic bombs , what about the fake evidence both times you invaded iraq (both times proven to be false) put bush (both of em) before an international court for a start it would maybe regain some trust on other continents.

[Adam]

In germanfool's honor I think you guys should post the Monty Python SPAM video again.

[danial]

@Adam

germanfool somewhat made my point and.

"Maybe I should instead ask you what is the upside of the mass murder and rape of Iran’s young people by Khameneijad? Do you think that makes for a “moral” society?"

where did this come from? did I say anything in support of the Iranian regime or their actions?

[Adam]

Danial,

Like all trolls on this board you attempt to crowd out legitimate comments with completely irrelevant distractions... generally finger pointing against the west to distract from the very specific human rights abuses being documented in Iran. Say hi to Samuel for me.

[danial]

@Scott Lucas

post 1615 GMT

Do you know how they will go about achieving this?

[danial]

@Adam

Thank you Adam, I will.

[danial]

analysis by Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran/khamenei-s-support-base-eroding-1.600211

This article was posted on Gulfnews, news agency from UAE

I'm quite surprised that they would post such an article.