Iraq: So What Do the Elections Mean (So Far)?

As we noted yesterday, the Sunday vote in Iraq now gives way to party propaganda and behind-the-scenes haggling and power plays, although a lot of the manoeuvres will be reshaped by the preliminary outcome when it is announced later this week.



Yesterday Iraq's electoral commission reported that 62.4 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots, with rates of 50 to 80 percent across the provinces. Still too early to tell where the outcome is heading, amidst conflicting (and self-serving) claims from the parties.

On Monday, Marc Lynch offered this sharp, incisive reading, which I think holds for the post-election period as well as for the vote. This line jumped out at me --- "[A] headline of the Iraqi election campaign has to be the overwhelmingly nationalist tone of all major politicians and the marginal American role in the process":

Iraq's election day went off remarkably well.



Despite some scattered and tragic violence, there was nothing like the kind of devastating violence threatened by a few insurgent groups and only scattered reports of problems in the electoral process. The de-Baathification shenanigans of Chalabi and al-Lami did some long-lasting damage to the credibility of state institutions and the rule of law, but not enough to cripple the elections. The relatively calm election day was overseen, it's worth emphasizing, by Iraqi security forces and not by U.S. troops -- something which I was often informed, over the last year, couldn't possibly happen. It did. This is simply excellent news, and a credit to the emerging capability of the Iraqi state. So now that election day is past, what now?

First, don't rush to speculate on who won or what it means. All the Iraqi lists are loudly claiming victory, but the truth is that no official (or even unofficial) results yet seem to exist. The anecdotal evidence still points to the pre-election speculation -- [current Prime Minister Nuri] Maliki on top, [Ayad] Allawi a strong second, the ISCI/Sadrist Shi'a list fading -- but it's only anecdotal. It does make a difference who comes out on top, and who becomes Prime Minister - Maliki and Allawi, for instance, would have very different styles, as would Chalabi or some such. But at the same time, there's almost certainly going to be a coalition of some kind (fully inclusive or otherwise) and the differences probably won't be as stark as some people expect.

Everybody has been predicting that the post-election coalition maneuvering will be long and painful, and could create the kind of security and political vaccuum which caused so many problems in the first half of 2006. I suspect that this is wrong. Iraqis learned from that experience, and they've been spending the last half-year gaming out coalition scenarios. I think that we'll see some intense political jockeying, with escalating warnings of disaster which lead to some worried op-eds about how the U.S. must get involved to resolve the conflict. And then it will resolve itself, likely within a month. I could be wrong -- lord knows, Iraq is hard to predict -- but that's my sense. Check back in a month and we'll see.

The other main headline of the Iraqi election campaign has to be the overwhelmingly nationalist tone of all major politicians and the marginal American role in the process. The election campaign (as opposed to the results, which we still don't know) showed clearly that Iraqis are determined to seize control of their own future and make their own decisions. The U.S. ability to intervene productively has dramatically receded, as the Obama administration wisely recognizes. The election produced nothing to change the U.S. drawdown schedule, and offered little sign that Iraqis are eager to revise the SOFA [Status of Forces Agreement] or ask the U.S. to keep troops longer. Iraq is in Iraqi hands, and the Obama administration is right both to pay close attention and to resist the incessant calls to "do more." This doesn't mean ignoring Iraq -- the truth is, the Obama administration has been paying a lot more attention to Iraq than the media has over the last year. It means moving to develop a normal, constructive strategic relationship with the new Iraqi government, with the main point of contact the Embassy and the private sector rather than the military, and adhering in every way possible to the SOFA and to the drawdown timeline.

Follow the Middle East Channel for a lot of analysis of the Iraqi election in the coming days!

Iraq LiveBlog: Election Day

1615 GMT: The Iraqi electoral commission is reporting that voter turnout is well above 50 percent in all but one of 11 provinces declared so far.

Strikingly, the turnout in Diyala, a former centre of Sunni insurgency, was more than 90 percent. That's a sharp contrast from the 2005 national elections, which were boycotted by the main Sunni parties.

1600 GMT: Iraqi security forces have announced a 10 p.m. (1900 GMT) curfew in Baghdad to allow safe transport of ballot boxes to election commission headquarters.


1552 GMT: Polls formally closed in Iraq almost two hours ago.

The official death toll from bombings and explosions today is 38, with 89 wounded. 25 died in a single incident when a Baghdad apartment building collapsed from an explosion (see 0645 GMT).

Ayad Allawi, the head of the National Accord Movement and one of the leading candidates for prime minister, gave a televised speech which both criticised the “weakness” of the government’s security operations and maintained that voters would be intimidated:

You know that Iraqis do not get scared. They will not be scared by tanks, bombings and explosions. They fought the British, as it is known, with simple weapons and kicked out the British empire. So this intimidation will not work.

1545 GMT: Back from a recording for Al Jazeera English's Inside Story on the significance of today's elections. The programme will air at 1730 GMT.

1310 GMT: Despite his disqualification from standing in the election, on the grounds that he had been sympathetic to Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, leading Sunni politician Saleh al-Mutlaq has asked his supporters to vote:

I call you by the name of Iraq. I call on you by all the values of Iraq. No one should stay at home. All should go. These are the decisive hours. So go and trust God is with you and will reward you for all what you have paid in the past times.

1300 GMT:The spokesman for Baghdad Operations Command, Maj. Gen. Qassim Atta, has claimed that today's bombings and mortar attacks “are miserable and desperate attempts that did not affect the atmosphere of the elections”.

Atta said at least one rocket-launching site had been located and struck west of Taji, a village on the northern outskirts of Baghdad. He added that the Iraqi military had requested that US forces increase air sorties. US Apache attack helicopters and their Iraqi counterparts have been circling above the Tigris River.

1110 GMT: AFP is hinting at manipulations and pressure in Kurdistan: "The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) -- allied to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani -- and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of regional president Massud Barzani have had a stranglehold on power for so long in Iraqi Kurdistan that people are afraid of even saying they voted for opposition parties."

In contrast, AFP correspondents are reporting long lines to vote in Sunni towns, "a positive sign for Iraq's fragile democracy".

1100 GMT: Awena is reporting that, in Erbil in Kurdistan, journalists have "civilian" escorts and are stopped when taking photographs of frauds or violations.

1010 GMT: New reports indicate that this morning's female suicide bomber (see 0715 GMT) struck a checkpoint, not a polling station.

1000 GMT: The Iraqi Independent Electoral Commission has put out an update at a press conference. More than 8000 polling centres, with 49,000 stations, opened this morning. They claim a high turnout with no serious incidents.

Ranj Alaaldin adds, "No serious fraud so far, names not on lists in some cases, security tight."

0915 GMT: A translator for AFP, as bombs go off across Baghdad while people go to the polls, "It's like a symphony."

0910 GMT: In a sign of confidence and/or defiance, the Iraqi authorities have lifted the ban on vehicles in Baghdad.

0900 GMT: Poll Sidelights....

"The BBC reports, "Eight people [were] arrested [on Saturday] following protests and scuffles at a polling station for Iraqi expatriates in north London. Police said 'spontaneous disorder' broke out at the Advait Cultural Centre, Wembley, at about 1330 GMT. The incident happened during a protest by a group which claimed it has been excluded from the polling facilities."

In Baghdad, a correspondent notes, "As usual kids use the election day to play football ON the highway."

0800 GMT: The death toll in Baghdad has risen to 24, according to the Interior Ministry.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki says the attacks "are only noise to impress voters but Iraqis are a people who love challenges and you will see that this will not damage their morale".

0730 GMT: All peaceful in Sulaimaniyah in eastern Kurdistan with no curfew on vehicles.

0720 GMT: Iraqis officials report two mortar bombs near polling stations in the western town of Ramadi and eight explosions in Fallujah. Samarra in the north has been hit by three mortars.

The official toll is now 16 people killed in attacks with more than 50 mortar rounds hitting targets across the capital.

0715 GMT: ABC News (US) correspondent reports a female suicide bomber has attacked a polling station in Al Karkh in Baghdad Province.

0710 GMT: A voter reports "huge turnout" and no apparent problems in Kirkuk.

0645 GMT: Polls opened for today's national election throughout Iraq at 7 a.m. local time (0400 GMT). More than 19 million Iraqis inside the country are eligible to vote; 4.7 million are in Baghdad. (Iraqis living outside the country have been voting throughout this week.)

Preliminary results are expected Wednesday. A summary of the parties and their leaders can be found in yesterday's entry previewing the elections.

More than 30 mortar rounds have hit Baghdad this morning, with three landing inside the "Green Zone" that includes the U.S. Embassy and many Iraqi government buildings. AFP reports that one person was killed and nine injured inside the Zone.

An explosion in the Ur neighbourhood in northeastern Baghdad has collapsed an apartment building, killing 12 people and wounding eight.

Analyst Ranj Alaaldin comments, "It's all kicking off in Baghdad,but nothing 2 serious as Iraq holds elections. Countless mortar attacks in Green Zone."