Iran: The People's (Facebook) Revolution

News Around the World by Enduring America on Facebook

On Wednesday, my colleague Chris Emery sent me the story that the Iranian Government had apparently blocked Facebook. That was curious because, two hours earlier, an Iranian friend had asked me via the site about my opinions on the Iranian Presidential election and the challenge of Mir Hossein Mousavi. Chris added that he, too, had been chatting with people in Tehran about the latest political developments.

So we did some cyber-checking --- Chris from Britain and I from a campsite in rural France --- and found out from our contacts that the site had been blocked on Saturday. That was not the big story, however. About 48 hours later, after much public protest, access to Facebook was restored, although no explanation for the original blocking was offered.

The immediate speculation was that the restriction was linked to the Presidential election. Months ago, when former President Mohammad Khatami was considering a 2009 bid, a group supporting him rapidly attracted thousands of members. Khatami's homepage now supports Mousavi, who in turn now has his own profile with more than 1300 fans. Mehdi Karroubi, another Presidential candidate, has a very active page with more than 2000 supporters.

(And, anticipating your question, there are several pages in the name of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, none appear to be an active "official" site, unless his primary language has suddenly become Spanish.)

Yet, while accepting that electoral politics was the proximate cause of the short-lived ban on Facebook, this misses the wider significance of the story.

For Facebook, as even the most cyber-phobic person knows, is much more than a political forum. Within minutes, you can be making up your ultimate band, discussing (and hopefully deriding) the latest Tom Hanks travesty, playing on-line Scrabble, or simply informing the world that you are angry/happy/depressed/excited/ready to hand over your children to the first person who will take them off your hands.In any country, let alone Iran, that opens up vistas of knowledge, discussion, and debate. For those immersed in politics, much of it may seem it far more trivial than a Presidential campaign, but these are the exchanges of everyday life.

Which is why, in my opinion, it would be a misreading to treat this Facebook movement as an uprising against the Islamic Revolution or even against the current Government (the real or imitation Mahmoud Ahmadinejads have several thousand supporters). Taking advantage of the opportunities offered by social media does not lock someone into a particular political, economic, or religious point of view.

Instead, the Facebook revolution is one of dialogue and engagement. It may face further bumps along the political road, but a return to a full block is unlikely. The illusion that Iran is cut off from "the West" --- just as the illusion that Iran is or should be just like "the West" --- is now well and truly shattered.

Iran's President Election: Mousavi Makes His (Economic) Challenge

Chris Emery, who has kept Enduring America on top of the Iranian presidential election, offers a latest observation which suggest there might be a heated contest:

With Iranian voters going to the ballot box in less than three weeks, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the candidate most likely to challenge President Ahmadinejad, has this month stepped up his campaign. With vital television debates beginning next week, in which the economy is likely to feature strongly as an issue, Mousavi's team published details of its economic plans over the weekend.

Mousavi’s manifesto has reportedly drawn on the analysis of 150 economists and is undeniably ambitious. The document calls for transparency on oil contracts, an increase in aid to boost and diversify production, and an economy that encourages “ethics and morality”. Iran’s dependence on oil revenue will be reduced through a shift to an industrial Ieconomy.

Mousavi places Iran’s nuclear energy programme at the centre of this effort. However, he also recognises that an overly provocative pursuit of nuclear energy will do little to advance the role of the private sector, which is another cornerstone of his economic strategy.

Indeed, there is a clear geo-political emphasis in Mousavi’s support for the liberalisation and diversification of Iran’s economy. In contrast to Ahmadinjad’s inflammatory anti-Israel rhetoric and his boasting of Iran’s regional power, Mousavi suggests that a stronger and more diverse national economy would offer Iran more influence as the region addresses its problems.

Yet, while the economy is likely to be the defining aspect of this campaign, Mousavi's challenge also shows the importance of political associations, in particular aligning oneself with political icons.

Mousavi’s choices don’t get much more iconic. By placing himself alongside Mohammed Mossedeq, the nationalist prime minister ousted by a CIA plot in 1953, Mousavi asserts his own belief not only in a strong national economy but in an economy linked to greater national autonomy and involvement in the region.

Mousavi's close personal relationship with former president Khatami cements his support from the young and takes advantages of Khatami’s large organisational network. This was seen earlier in the month during a rally Khatami organised to support Mousavi. Video footage shows a young audience, donned in Mousavi’s campaigning colours of green, shown videos of Mossedeq.

Also highly visible in the video is Mousavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard. Whilst candidates’ wives have become important campaigners for Western politicians, it is extremely rare in Iranian politics. President Ahmadinejad has been notoriously guarded about his own wife and children, who are almost never seen in public. In contrast, Rahnavard, a former university chancellor and supporter of women’s rights, has appeared at most of her husband’s campaign events.

The third iconic figure with which Mousavi has closely associated himself is the founder of the Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini. Mousavi, who needs to appeal to moderate conservative elements if he is to win, has emphasised his close relationship with Khomeini, who was his chief political sponsor during the 1980s. After visiting the house in which Khomeini was born earlier this month Musavi stated, "We have to return to Imam Khomeini's values if we want justice and freedom in Iran."

Mousavi knows that a high turnout is vital for his victory. His sparring with Ahmadinejad during the television debates will be watched by millions, but it is his organisational machine which would deliver his success. Access to the reformist campaigning infrastructure which delivered Khatami two consecutive victories is crucial, but this will have to be complemented by a much broader appeal. It will a frantic run-in to the 12 June election.