Britain's Election: The Final Word So Far (M. Python)

After the inconclusive British Election last Thursday, we are now in a phase of private talks between the parties, primarily the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats but also the current Labour Government and the Lib Dems. We also are being treated to a media which, deprived of hard information, is trying to pass off speculation as news and insight.

Given this 24/7 discussion with much repetition but without resolution, a whimsical look inside a British elections from the 1960s:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31FFTx6AKmU[/youtube]

Britain’s Election on The Morning After: “Who Here Has a Mandate?”

Britain's Election on The Morning After: "Who Here Has a Mandate?"

UPDATE 1715 GMT: The final count of seats (assuming Thirsk is held by Conservatives in three weeks' time): Conservative 307 (19 short of majority), Labour 258, Liberal Democrat 57, Others 28.

UPDATE 1420 GMT: The Conservatives have gained two seats, Amber Valley (target #137) and Morecambe (target #111), from Labour. With four seats remaining (one of which, Thirsk, will return a Conservative in a delayed vote three weeks from now): Conservatives 304 (22 short of a majority), Labour 257, Lib Dem 57, Others 28.

UPDATE 1345 GMT: Cameron's "Big, Open, Comprehensive" Offer. Conservative leader David Cameron has made his play for power. His initial gambit was to lay out terms for an arrangement --- either a coalition or assured support for Government policies --- with the Liberal Democrats. He pointed out, for example, that the Conservatives could work with the Lib Dems on a "pupil premium" to give resources to deprived schoolchildren, a low-carbon economy, and tax reform. He made a rhetorical nod to electoral reform, although his proposal stopped at an "all-party committee of enquiry".

Britain’s Election LiveBlog: An Interim Assessment “Hung Parliament”
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Britain’s Elections

However, Cameron's deal wasn't all or even that sweet. He red-lined areas beyond discussion: the Conservatives will insist on no further British moves towards Europe, towards a get-tough immigration policy, and for continued pursuit of the Trident nuclear missile system. And I don't think his "all-party committee" will go far towards the Liberal Democrats' goal of proportional representation.


So Cameron set up his fall-back. If the Conservatives don't get a firm commitment of Liberal Democratic support, they will rule with a "minority government", working on a case-by-case basis to get legislation through Parliament (the last time this was tried, in 1974, it lasted five months).

None of Cameron's plans can be sought, however, until Labour and Gordon Brown step aside. So over to you, Mr Brown.

And, equally important, over to you, Mr Clegg.

UPDATE 1245 GMT: Brown Makes His Pitch. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has launched a pre-emptive strike in advance of Conservatiýve leader David Cameron's statement at 1330 GMT.

After signalling the authority of his Government (we are in talks with the Euro Group on the Greek crisis, we are discussing the problems of the Eurozone with the G7 group of developed nations), Brown stood upon the notion of "strong, stable" political leadership. While he respected Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg's wish to speak first with Cameron about a coalition, the arrangement were in place for the Government to discuss possibilities with the Lib Dems.

And here is where it got interesting: Brown said there were two firm bases for the talks --- sound economic policy and electoral reform. Thus the offer: come with us, Lib Dems, and your dream of proportional representation may be possible.



UPDATE 1155 GMT: Latest state of parties --- Conservatives 295, Labour 252, Lib Dem 53, Others 27, Undeclared 23.

UPDATE 1045 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have made a notable, if limited, gain by taking Brent Central from Labour. Because of boundary changes, this was the one constituency where two sitting MPs faced each other.

UPDATE 0945 GMT: Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, has said he is open to discussions with the Conservatives over a coalition. Clegg says the Tories have the "first right", given that they have the most seats, to try to form a Government.

UPDATE 0930 GMT: Labour have held a series of marginal seats, rebuffing challenges from Conservatives, Lib Dems, and George Galloway of Respect.

UPDATE 0910 GMT: The Conservatives have gained Thurrock (target #125) from Labour with a 92-vote majority. They now have 291 seats with 32 to declare.

UPDATE 0815 GMT: Let's note a historic first: the Greens are now represented in the House of Commons. Caroline Lucas, a member of the European Parliament, has won Brighton Pavilion on England's south coast.

Now to latest numbers and muddle: the Conservatives have had two more gains from Labour (Hendon and Watford South). Current state of play: Conservative 290, Labour 247, Lib Dem 51, Others 27, Undeclared 35.

So officially, Britain has a "hung Parliament" as the Tories cannot reach the 326 mark.

That's just the simple soundbite, however.

Already Conservative supporters are saying, well, since Northern Ireland's Irish nationalist Sinn Fein (4 seats) refuse to sit in the UK Parliament and since they could ally with eight Northern Irish Unionists, just maybe they could squeak out a majority. (All of this is fluff, but at least it bolsters the Conservative claim that Labour should stand aside and let the Tories have a chance to form a Government.)


On the other side, an EA correspondent points out the bold reach for a Labour (255 projected seats at the moment)-Liberal Democrat (55)-Scottish Nationalist (6)-Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru(3) coalition. My maths, however, say that it is still only 319 seats.

Spinning gold --- even fool's gold --- from straw comes to mind.

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In the speech of thanks at his Parliamentary election early this morning, Conservative leader David Cameron asserted, "It is clear that this Labour Government no longer has a mandate to govern."

Maybe so. But it is not clear who does have that mandate.

A few hours after we broke off our LiveBlog, the three points we riskily ventured have firmed up: 1) the Conservatives will not achieve an overall majority; 2) the Liberal Democrats have failed to make a significant advance; 3) Labour faces the difficult decision of if it wishes to forge a coalition and how it does so.

The numbers at the moment out of 650 seats in the House of Commons: Conservatives 287, Labour 237, Lib Dems 57, Others 27, Undecided 42.

The Tories have gained 88 seats. They need 116 to achieve a majority, however, and there are not enough targets left to pick up 28 more from either Labour or the Liberal Democrats. So while the other two major parties are dealing with disappointment this morning --- Labour down 81 seats and the Lib Dems, more surprisingly, down 5 from their 2005 performance --- they are not bowing down before a Blue Wave.

Nor is the raw percentage of vote, for what it's worth, any more supportive of a Conservative victory. The Tories only added four percent to their 2005 total, rising to about 36.5%. Labour is at 28.7%, in line with pre-poll projections, but the Liberal Democrats are down from those projecitons (though up slightly from 2005) with 22.8%.

If I was to attempt an academic soundbite --- be snappy but invoke history --- this was no 1997, when Tony Blair's Labour swept away the Conservative Government, with leading Tory Ministers falling on their swords in defeat. A couple of former Labour Ministers did lose, but nothing which even merited a front-page photograph.

So what do we have? Muddle.

We have muddle in the results. The BBC's 2-D Swingometer has now imploded amidst outcomes that might take four dimensions to map. There was no uniformity in the shifts or non-shifts, with individual seats bouncing around depending on boundary changes, some regional trends, three- and four-way splits in the vote, and --- dare it be say --- local issues and the strengths of individual candidates.

So Labour was not only to resist the Lib Dem challenge but, in some places, to push back against the Conservative claim of rule after 13 years of Blair and Brown Governments. For example, in our home area of Birmingham, Labour retained what used to be a Conservative stronghold in Birmingham Edgbaston, clung on --- despite talk of a student vote tipping seats to Lib Dems --- to Birmingham Selly Oak, and, in one of the most intriguing results of the night, kept Birmingham Hall Green (the Respect Party, formed on the strength of opposition to the 2003 Iraq War, finished second in a four-way fight with more than 25 percent of the vote).

And we have muddle in what is to come. The stark politics of the numbers is that the Conservatives are projected to fall about 20 seats short of a majority. However, Labour and Lib Dem are projected, even in coalition, to be about 10 seats shy of the mark, which would mean bringing in a couple of smaller parties for a majority.

Under the laws and practices of this land, Labour gets the first shot at forging a Government. Paradoxically, however --- given their scare talk of how votes for the Liberal Democrats will unsettle the country --- the lack of a Lib Dem surge means that they can only bring a weakened party into a coalition.

The Conservatives will bang away at how the largest number of seats means that, sooner rather than later, Gordon Brown should step down and let them put together a Government. But it appears there are not enough scraps on the electoral table, i.e., a few Northern Irish Unionists, to weld a coalition without approaching the Lib Dems. And those Lib Dems, even in a shaken state, will stick insist on major changes in the British electoral system (if you want an unspoken headline from last evening, the numbers this morning show how skewed Britain's "first past the post" elections are). That's not a demand that the Tories will be eager to meet.

So from the messiness of "democracy" to the murkiness of individual politicians testing others, sounding out deals, assessing the price of getting power.

The silver lining? Well, there may be quick redress for those hundreds (thousands) of voters who had the doors of polling stations shut in their faces at 10 p.m. local time last night. For, in less than a year, with no party establishing a right to govern, there could well be another Election Night in Britain.