Iran Analysis: When Allies Fight (Tehran and Moscow)

The international headlines this morning are on the drama of an apparent public row between the Iranian and Russian leaders. As we noted in yesterday's updates, the fuse was lit in a speech by President Ahmadinejad in Kerman. As usual, he focused on the international rather than the domestic front, but this time he had a surprise:

Today it has become very difficult to explain [Russian President Dmitry] Medvedev's behaviour to our people. Iranians do not understand whether they (the Russians) are our neighbour and friend standing by our side or are after other things.

But non-Western media really noticed the bangs when Moscow, through Presidential advisors, fought back. Foreign Policy specialist Sergei Prikhodko stated:

Any unpredictability, any political extremism, lack of transparency or inconsistency in taking decisions that affect and concern the entire world community is unacceptable for us. It would be good if those who are now speaking in the name of the wise people of Iran ... would remember this.

Russia has been playing a balancing game between Tehran and "Western" powers for months. Medvedev was one of the rare leaders who dared to appear in public with Ahmadinejad last summer, and the Russians maintained that projects such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant would be completed.

On the other hand, Medvedev --- in contrast to his Foreign Ministry --- has publicly signalled since last autumn that further sanctions can be considered if Iran did not shift its position over uranium enrichment. The Russians have delayed shipments and confirmation of contracts over missiles, and Bushehr's opening date repeatedly slips.

Even last week, the Janus-faced policy of Russia continued. The sharp US response, with the introduction of a sanctions resolution to the UN Security Council, to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on uranium enrichment came after discussions with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Yet Moscow restated that Bushehr would come on-line in August, and the US press reported that Russian suppliers would continue to send missile components to Tehran.

So what happened for Ahmadinejad to disrupt the balance with his public statement? The obvious speculation is that Russia has refused to peel away from the sanctions move in the UN, but the truth is we don't know. It's unlikely that the warning from the Iran President is going to worry Moscow --- what cards of pain can Tehran play against the Russians? --- so Ahmadinejad's statement appears as pique, anger, or even miscalculation.

For its part, the US has kept quiet, which seems the wise move. And China, the other "balancing" power in the UN Security Council, has also said nothing.

We'll keep eyes well-open today to see if the fight escalates. More importantly, we'll try to figure out why.