Middle East Inside Line: Israel's Settlements; Syria's Defiance

Pressure on Netanyahu over Settlements: On Thursday, fifty-six members of the Knesset petitioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to allow construction of a neighbourhood in the West Bank settlement of Ariel. The building would break Netanyahu's promise to freeze building in the West Bank for 10 months.

The neighourhood would house evacuees of the former Gaza Strip settlement of Netzarim, who have been without permanent housing since Israel's disengagement in 2005.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: The 2nd Round of Proximity Talks (Yenidunya)
Israel Revealed: Tel Aviv Offered Nuclear Weapons to South Africa

Syria Takes No "Step Back": Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in Damascus on Sunday and urged the West to "break its silence" in the face of Israeli "aggression" in the Middle East. According to Syria's official news agency SANA, Assad said:

The region has changed and the West's policy in the area is no longer acceptable, keeping silent over Israeli violations is no longer acceptable.

If the West wants security and stability to be established in the Middle East, [it] must start to play an effective role to contain Israel and put an end to its extremist policies.

Then, he defended Damascus' ally and neighbour Iran:

The countries involved need to change their attitude to Iran's civil nuclear program, because this agreement is an important opportunity to reach a diplomatic solution and prevent a tragic dispute in the region and the world at large.

Late Sunday, Foreign Minister Walid Moallem sharpened Syria's tone during a meeting with his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle. He said that Damascus "will not be a policeman for Israel" and added:

Why are arms forbidden to Arabs and allowed to Israel? Did Israel ever stop arming itself, did it stop instigating violence or making military maneuvers?

Israel is beating the drum of war. In the absence of real peace every thing is possible.

Israel's Drill and Hezbollah: Hezbollah has mobilized thousands of its militants in southern Lebanon ahead of a major Israel Defense Forces drill, "Turning Point 4", AFP reported.

While Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo ahead of his visit to Washington, Hezbollah's deputy head, Nabil Qaouk, said thousands of Hezbollah fighters will not take part in Lebanon's municipal elections on Sunday because they are preparing for the possible attack by Israel.

Israel has sent messages to Arab states about the drill, stressing that it has no plans to launch an attack.

Washington Approves Israel's Iron Dome Defense System: The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday voted in favour of President Barack Obama's plans to help Israel fund the deployment of the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system.

Lawmakers, by a 410-4 margin, backed Obama's plan to give Israel $205 million for its production of a short-range rocket defense system.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: The 2nd Round of Proximity Talks (Yenidunya)

US envoy George Mitchell was in Ramallah on Wednesday and in Israel the next day. During talks with Mitchell, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas said Israeli “provocations” were threatening negotiations.

Following the delivery of several complaint letters to Mitchel, the top negotiator Saeb Erekat added, "We hope that the Americans will obligate the Israelis to stop the provocations, which include invasions, arrests, settlement construction and the creation of new facts on the ground." However, Erekat was still "optimistic", saying, "We hope that in the next four months we can achieve the two-state solution on the 1967 borders."

Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Settlements; Syria’s Defiance
Israel Revealed: Tel Aviv Offered Nuclear Weapons to South Africa

Army Radio reported that Israel was preparing gestures for the Palestinians, including removal of roadblocks in the West Bank and release of prisoners. Government sources said that Netanyahu is favorably examining a proposal to expropriate land from Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank to build a road between Ramallah and a new Palestinian town under construction.


Washington, however, seems to be highlighting the priority of security for both sides, even though this breaks the ban on discussion of core issues before direct talks. On Saturday, Mitchell said the first round in Ramallah dealt with borders and security arrangements. He denied earlier reports that Palestinians had agreed to give up more territory  during former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's land swap offer in 2008: Abbas is ready to exchange land with Israel but gaps remain on how much territory is to be traded.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, an opponent of the discussions, presented the Israel Cabinet with a secret report on plans by the Palestinian Authority for global campaign to keep pressure on Israel over settlements. The report says that the Palestinians will seek to use the so-called proximity talks to increase American pressure on Israel so the freeze on settlement construction will continue, including East Jerusalem if possible. It allegedly continues, "In our assessment, the Palestinians will not reveal any area of flexibility, especially not on issues of borders and territory exchanges, because in their view the Israeli government is not genuinely interested in carrying out effective negotiations."

The report supposedly claimed the Palestinians would seek to persuade Washington, in the United Nations Security Council, not to veto a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Israel Revealed: Tel Aviv Offered Nuclear Weapons to South Africa

A former South African naval commander, Dieter Gerhardt, jailed in 1983 for spying for the Soviet Union, said following his release in 1992 that there was an agreement, "Chalet", in which Israel would arm eight Jericho missiles with "special warheads" for South Africa. Gerhardt said that these were atomic bombs.

Gerhardt's claims have finally been supported. During research for his newly published book, The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Alliance with Apartheid South Africa, an American academic Sasha Polakow-Suransky found secret South African documents revealing Israel's offer of nuclear warheads to the apartheid regime,  the first published documentary evidence of West Jerusalem's possession of nuclear weapons.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Settlements; Syria’s Defiance
Israel-Palestine Analysis: The 2nd Round of Proximity Talks (Yenidunya)

The "top secret" minutes of meetings between senior officials from the two countries in 1975 reveal that South Africa's Defence Minister, PW Botha, asked for the warheads and Shimon Peres, then Israel's Defence Minister and now its President, responded by offering them "in three sizes". The two men also signed a broad-ranging agreement governing military ties between the two countries, with a clause that "the very existence of this agreement" was to remain secret.



The top secret minutes of the meeting record, "Minister Botha expressed interest in a limited number of units of Chalet subject to the correct payload being available." The document then states, "Minister Peres said the correct payload was available in three sizes. Minister Botha expressed his appreciation and said that he would ask for advice."

The "three sizes" are believed to refer to the conventional, chemical and nuclear weapons.

Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions

A bit of background to Monday's agreement between Iran, Turkey, and Brazil on procedure for an uranium enrichment deal....

Four days before the announcement, on 13 May, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had a telephone conversation with his counterpart Hillary Clinton. Two days after that, on Saturday, they met, just before Davutoglu went to Tehran.

Hours later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan --- who had cancelled his own trip to Iran on the Friday --- reversed course. He set aside a visit to Azerbaijan and flew to Tehran.

So what happened in the high-letter US-Turkey encounters just before the IBT agreement? According to the State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley:

During the call [on 13 May], the Secretary stressed that, in our view, Iran’s recent diplomacy was an attempt to stop Security Council action without actually taking steps to address international concerns about its nuclear program.

There’s nothing new and nothing encouraging in Iran’s recent statements. It has failed to demonstrate good faith and build confidence with the international community, which was the original intent of the Tehran research reactor proposal. It has yet to formally respond to the IAEA.

She [Clinton] stressed that the burden is with Iran and its lack of seriousness about engagement requires us to intensify efforts to apply greater pressure on Iran. Now, that was the primary purpose of the conversation. They briefly touched on other subjects, including Middle East peace and the relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Throughout the question-and-answer session, Crowley was giving the message: Iran was not going to give up its own enrichment of 20-percent uranium and so there was still the "urgent" need for sanctions as a result of the dual policy towards Iran. Translated, Washington said that there would be no unclenched fist extended to Iran as long as Israel's protests  over Tehran's nuclear programme and the regional contest for influence continued.

Crowley continued:

Iran has been very busy in recent weeks having conversations with a range of countries. Part of that conversation did occur last week in the dinner in New York. And not only – during the conversation in New York, not only did Iran not offer any new, Foreign Minister Mottaki indicated during the dinner that notwithstanding any potential agreement on the Tehran research reactor, they would continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent, which we –-- which is of great concern to us and violates their obligations under the IAEA.

So they had initially, when they announced they were going to enrich uranium to 20 percent, they claimed at the time that it was for the Tehran research reactor, but it’s obviously part of a broader agenda. And that’s what we are concerned about. That’s why we continue to pursue the sanctions resolution as part of our pressure track.

When asked whether Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's expected visit to Tehran was a "last opportunity", Crowley said:

Well, I mean, we are –-- we continue to move forward on a sanctions resolution, and we have a sense of urgency about this. We want to get this done as quickly as possible. But our view remains that we are doubtful that Iran is going to change course absent the kind of significant pressure that comes with a resolution and the consequences that come with them.

Then, when he was asked whether the State Department gave Davutoglu any red lines that Turkey should not cross, Crowley replied:

Regarding the TRR [the Tehran Research Reactor], it [a proposal for "third country enrichment"] was put on the table last fall to build confidence with the international community about the true intentions of Iran’s nuclear program. We have drawn conclusions from Iran’s failure to even respond –-- much less engage constructively –-- even respond to the proposal formally to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency].

[Clinton] stressed to Foreign Minister Davutoglu again today that it’s not about the public statements that Iran makes. If Iran wishes to engage in –-- regarding the TRR, come up with alternatives that meet the fundamental intent of the proposal, then they can pick up the phone and call the IAEA, which is something they have failed to do.

Following the announcement of the IBT agreement, Crowley restated the reasons for an "urgent" sanctions draft:

In the statement, the White House acknowledged the efforts made by Turkey and Brazil and now called upon the IAEA to clearly and authoritatively convey the results of this arrangement to the IAEA. That said, the United States continues to have concerns about the arrangement. The joint declaration does not address the core concerns of the international community.

Iran remains in defiance of five UN Security Council resolutions, including its unwillingness to suspend enrichment operations. In fact, today Iran reaffirmed that it plans to continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent despite the fact that it previously justified this increased enrichment as for the Tehran research reactor. So public statements today suggest that the TRR deal is unrelated to it ongoing enrichment activity. In fact, they are integrally linked.

And then Crowley became very coy and even deceptive about how much Washington knew of the Turkish and Brazilian efforts:

I think we had conversations with Foreign Minister Amorim and Foreign Minister Davutoglu prior to their arrival in Tehran. I’m not aware of any specific contacts with them over the weekend.

But, setting aside Crowley's public spin, did the US know in advance of Erdogan's sudden decision to go to Iran? Most likely, Washington did not anticipate that the diplomatic efforts were moving towards an agreement, leading to the Turkish Prime Minister's change of plans. Ankara had made a decision: the benefits of a joint proposal with Iran and Brazil meant that it would exert autonomy and risk the US reaction.

Now the question is "What will Turkey will do in the UN?" This week, Erdogan wrote a letter to President Obama, saying that Ankara had opened the door slightly for a resolutio. Now the ball was in Washington's court.

In other words: "We did our part (and gained diplomatic and political advantage from doing so). You want to mess up this agreement with sanctions, so be it --- although don't expect us to vote for the resolution in the Security Council.

"We've got our ties with the US, which we value. But we also have our economic and political ties with Tehran."

Turkey Inside Line: It's Not Baykal in Video!; Kilicdaroglu Steps In; A UN "Well Done" to Turkey

It is Not Baykal: On Thursday, the National Criminal Bureau released the findings of their enquiry into a video clip allegedly showing the former leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Deniz Baykal, having sex with a party deputy, Nesrin Baytok.

The representative of the Bureau, Uğur Kurtulan, said that the man in the clip is not Baykal and the woman is not Baytok. He added that the head of Baykal in the first part of the clip was produced through a montage and that the man in the second part is thinner and taller than the one in the first part.

Turkey Inside Line: Latest War between Government and Opposition; New Era in Turkish-Greek Relations

Baykal's lawyer said: "It is clear that a victimhood is constituted after a video clip in which even the colours of socks and ties do not match. What is the aim of the person who released it? The duty of the government is to investigate who, with which purpose and why wanted to end Mr Baykal's political life in Turkey."


Kilicdaroglu as the Strongest Candidate: Obtaining overwhelming support from Republican People’s Party provincial chairpersons Tuesday, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu announced his candidacy for CHP leader at the party conference on 22-23 May. However, Kılıçdaroğlu said he wants to see the former head Deniz Baykal as honorary leader. He also added that if the circumstances permitted, he wanted to see Baykal as the president of Turkey.

Baykal refused the offer of honorary leader since it is Kemal Ataturk who formed the party.Speaking to the media after the meeting Baykal, acting CHP leader Cevdet Selvi said: “Baykal seemed dynamic and in high spirits. However, he was angry with his fate.” Selvi also said Baykal had no problem with the candidacy of Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kilicdaroglu, in an interview with Milliyet, said Wednesday he would work closely with the poor if elected as the new party leader. He would support youth and those who produce, invest and create employment opportunities.

According to a poll conducted by A&G Public Opinion in 39 provinces and districts, CHP’s share of a national vote would reach 32.3 percent if Kılıçdaroğlu took the leadership. If Deniz Baykal returned, the votes would go down to 18.6 percent, and another leader appointed by Baykal would return 21.7 percent.

Turkish Military Shows Flexibility: Following a series of agreements between Athens and Ankara, Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ told reporters Wednesday that he has proposed stopping flights of armed jets over the Aegean to his Greek counterpart in a move to end potential unwanted incidents. The response he received was, “I will consider this.”

A "Well Done" to Turkey: On Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon praised Turkey’s efforts in the Cyprus talks, the uranium swap deal signed in Tehran, the Somalia conference in Istanbul, the mediation role in the Middle East, the EU membership process, indirect talks between Syria and Israel, Alliance of Civilizations initiative,and rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia.

Ban added that he hoped Cypriot leaders would meet soon to continue the talks. "As I understand, they will meet at the end of this month." He continued:

I have extended strong support to negotiations, and I continue to do so. More than 70 talks have taken place between the two leaders in the past 18 months. This is an extremely positive development.