The Latest from Iran (27 May): Cooperation and Feuds

1915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The families of detainees Kouhyar Goudarzi and Majid Tavakoli report that both men have been transferred to hospital days after they started hunger strikes.

The mother of Goudarzi, a member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, said her son passed out in prison: “When I went to visit Kouhyar, the officials told me that he cannot be visited because he has been transferred to solitary confinement but one of the prisoners informed me through a phone call that he has been taken to Evin Prison infirmary.”

Majid Tavakoli’s brother said the family received a call from a friend in prison reporting that Majid had lost his speech and was taken to the infirmary.

Goudarzi quit eating on 20 May to protest transfer to solitary confinement. Tavakoli started his strike when he was returned to solitary four days ago for protesting against “the sub-standard conditions of the prison and the illegal restrictions enforced against prisoners rights”.

NEW Iran Analysis: When Allies Co-ordinate (Mousavi & Karroubi)
NEW Iran Analysis: When Allies Fight (Tehran and Moscow)
Iran Document: Mousavi “On the Importance of Political Parties” (26 May)
Iran Document: Karroubi “Aligning the Green Movement Inside and Outside Country”
The Latest from Iran (26 May): Panahi Out But 100s Still Imprisoned

1410 GMT: Azad University Invaded? A curious report on Parleman News that, late last night, more than 20 armed plainclothes militia entered the Office of Board of Trustees and Founders of Islamic Azad University and the office of the Center for Advanced Science and Technology. The story claims that the militia threatened and handcuffed security personnel, entered offices and vandalized them, and took documents, computers and other objects..


A statement by the Office of Board of Trustees and Founders of Islamic Azad University said the attack was a continuation of recent hostile activities against the university and illegal changes made to the runiversity's rules, along with the introduction of new members to the Board of Trustees by the Ahmadinejad Government.

Islamic Azad University, Iran's largest private chain of universities, was launched during Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Presidency (1989-1997). Until recently Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was the President; he is now in Britain, under threat of prosecution if he returns to Iran.

1400 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Moment. Press TV, which had avoided any reference to President Ahmadinejad's criticism of Russia in his speech on Wednesday (see EA's special analysis), now decides it can consider the story:

Russia has pledged to "actively support" the Tehran Nuclear Declaration on condition that the landmark fuel swap proposal is fully implemented.

"If it (Iran) strictly abides by them, Russia will actively support the scheme proposed by Brazil and Turkey," AFP quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying on Thursday

"We welcome this deal. If fully implemented, it will create very important preconditions not just for the solution of the concrete problem… but for improving the atmosphere for the renewal of negotiations," Lavrov added.

The remarks come one day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized Russia for conceding to a US campaign for tougher UN sanctions against the country, calling on Moscow to "resolutely" support the May 17 declaration issued by Iran, Turkey and Brazil.

Of course, Lavrov's statement is about the 4357th instance of Russia playing its balancing game on the nuclear issue --- you'll notice that he did not distance Moscow from sanctions until a deal on uranium enrichment is completed.

And, hmm, looks like Press TV missed this portion of Lavrov's statement: "To our great regret, during years --- not just months ---Iran's response to these efforts has been unsatisfactory, mildly speaking."

1025 GMT: Don't Criticise Me (Cuz I'm Close to the Edge). An interesting story from President Ahmadinejad's visit to Kerman yesterday....

According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, Ahmadinejad met provincial administrators. He told them that, while the Government respects all groups and parties, they have no right to interfere in the state's governance and to pressure it. Ahmadinejad also turned the criticism on his audience, citing corruption and clannishness in the provinces and saying that local officials should work for the people.

Significance? Well, at the start of this week, the President came under public fire from an audience heckling him over unemployment in Khorramshahr. This looks like his response: I hear you, but you don't have any standing to challenge me. And, before you think of such a challenge, take a hard look at local and provincial officials.

0750 GMT: The Executions. RAHANA reports that the body of Farzad Kamangar, one of five Iranians hung on 9 May,  still has not been returned to his family but remains in a prison morgue.

0740 GMT: Economy Watch. The head of the Supreme Audit Court, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, has criticized Iran's slow pace of development and insatiable consumption of natural resources, especially oil.

Declaring that it is “shameful” for Tehran to import vegetables like onion and garlic , Fazli continued, “It is not reasonable for the country to insatiably consume oil revenues yet the government pays subsidies for gasoline, fertilizer, and human resources to plant vegetables like orange, garlic, onion and….Iran is a poor country from the standpoint that it is unable to enhance its assets and properly take use of its abundant human resources."

Fazli warned that growth was far below the 8% projected by the Government for its 5th Development Plan.

0735 GMT: The "Political" Revolutionary Guard. Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari has proclaimed that the IRGC is foremost an intelligence and political organisation, then a military establishment.

0725 GMT: The Rumbles Within. A group of "hardline" politicians have criticised Government supporters for abstaining, rather than voting No, in the vote for the re-election of Ali Larijani as  Speaker of Parliament.

0720 GMT: That Russia (Non-)Story. Following up Press TV's disappearance of President Ahmadinejad's criticism of Russia (see 0715 GMT), a quick glance shows that Tabnak highlighted the challenge to Moscow but that Fars set it aside.

0710 GMT: A later start this morning, as we focused on two analyses. The international front was marked on Tuesday by the sudden emergence of President Ahmadinejad's anger with Russia and Moscow's response: why now? But inside Iran, the story was of both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi making tactical moves to forge opposition.

As we catch up on the news, an intriguing signal on the Iran-Russia dispute: Press TV's report on the Ahmadinejad speech in Kerman proclaims, "No Isolation on the Cards", and leads:

The Iranian president has slammed what he described as the tyrannical policies of the West, saying no bullying power or corporate structure can isolate the Iranian nation.

The Iranian president further pointed out that comments about the isolation of the Islamic Republic and Western efforts for the imposition of sanctions on Iran were solely face-saving measures aimed at protecting the Western community from its downfall.

"It is the Iranian nation that will isolate many of such countries," he added.

Number of references to Russia in the story? Zero.

The Latest from Iran (24 May): Rahnavard's Statement, Ahmadinejad Heckled

1910 GMT: Panahi to be Freed? Iranian Students News Agency is reporting a statement from Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi that the decree ordering the release of film director Jafar Panahi from Evin Prison has been signed.

Panahi has not been freed yet, however. Dowlatabadi said he met Panahi last Thursday in jail and agreed to the director's request of freedom before his trial, subject to payment of bail. According to Dowlatabadi, "bureaucratic procedures are now proceeding".

1745 GMT: No Permit, No 12 June March? Readers have picked up on this passage from the English translation of Sunday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi:

[They] decided to invite people to participate in a national rally on theanniversary of the rigged presidential election on 22 Khordaad if permission for holding a rally is issued by the Interior Ministry, but if this constitutional right is denied by Ahmadinejad’s administration, they proposed to peacefully continue promoting awareness through the various and numerous social networks.

I asked an EA correspondent, "Does that mean that, if no permit is given, neither will take to the streets and call out the Green Movement to demonstrate?"

The correspondent's reply:

I take it to read that while they may not march, they will not stand idle if, as expected, the permission is not granted.

We should emphasise that the 12 June rally, if it takes place, is something relatively new, as it is the very first "homegrown" event for the Green wave, i.e., one that does not "piggyback" on an existing regime commemoration event. This is potentially a vulnerability, as it leaves the Green people exposed (everyone out on the streets that day is Green). It is worth nothing that Kalemeh indicates that Mousavi and Karroubi have also discussed events pertaining to the June 15 anniversary of the mass rally and the June 20 commemoration too. All this means that these days shall be an important litmus test for everyone, the regime and the Greens.

NEW Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 May)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Heckled During Speech (24 May)
Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People’s Month?

1650 GMT: The Iran Uranium Letter. Reuters has posted the text of Iran's formal note, based on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a uranium fuel swap, to the International Atomic Energy Agency. An extract:

The nuclear fuel exchange is a starting point to begin cooperation and a positive constructive move forward among nations. Such a move should lead to positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation through refraining from measures, actions and rhetorical statements that would jeopardize Iran's rights and obligations under the NPT.

Based on the above, in order to facilitate the nuclear cooperation mentioned above, the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to deposit 1200 kg LEU in Turkey. While in Turkey the LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.

In return, we expect the Agency, also in accordance with paragraph 6 of this declaration, to notify the Vienna Group (USA, Russia, France and the IAEA) of its content, and consequently inform us of the Group's positive response. Such action, according to this declaration, will pave the way to commence negotiation for elaboration on further details of the exchange leading to conclusion of a written agreement and as well as making proper arrangements between Iran and the Vienna Group.

1425 GMT: We have posted the English translation of the summary of the Mir Hossein Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting on Sunday.

1330 GMT: The Crackdown (and a Video Game). Writing for The National, Michael Theodoulou opens his story with the tale of the video game, "Fighting the Leaders of Sedition", where players can use fighter jets to kill Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. He then moves to the real-life stories of jail sentences, alleged beatings, e.g., of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, and the detention of film director Jafar Panahi.

1310 GMT: What the Crowd Said to Ahmadinejad. HomyLafayette interprets the video, from Iranian state television, of an audience shouting at the President in Khorramshahr today:

Ahmadinejad attempted to shout over the cries of the population, but even his promises to stem unemployment in the southwestern province failed to trigger applause or to calm the people's loud refrain of "bikari, bikari!" (unemployment, unemployment!).

"The government is at your service," said the beleaguered Ahmadinejad. "With broad projects, with the efforts of the dear youth of Khorramshahr and Khuzestan province, it will uproot unemployment from Khuzestan, god willing."

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to an Iranian activist, Azad University student Sina Golchin has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison by an appeals court for participating in the protest on Ashura (27 December).

1135 GMT: Sunday's Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting. Saham News, the website connected with Mehdi Karroubi, has posted a summary of the discussion between Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The two men agreed to call for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the election, and to seek ways to expand the awareness of the Green Movement despite Government restrictions.

1040 GMT: Ahmadinejad Heckled. An EA correspondent, who watched the President's television speech this morning, sends us two audio clips of crowd noise. He comments:

You can clearly hear people shouting 'Azadi' (freedom) in the second clip. In the first clip, near the beginning, the TV obviously tried to remove something, but it's not clear what that was.

(We've now posted a video of the incident.)

1025 GMT: Still Keeping Score on Uranium? After Sunday's confusion, Tehran has submitted a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, outlining last week's Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on procedure for talks on a uranium swap outside Iran.

1020 GMT: Tough Crowd for Ahmadinejad? Nasser Karimi of the Associated Press reports:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech in a southern port town has been marred by shouts from disenchanted Iranians demanding jobs.

Ahmadinejad on Monday addressed hundreds gathered in Khorramshahr — about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Tehran — when scores from the crowd interrupted his speech with shouts: "We are unemployed!"

The President was speaking on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces in the Persian Gulf War.
0945 GMT: Rahnavard's Green Movement Warriors. An English translation of the remarks of Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, speaking to Iranian war veterans on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraq, has been posted:

Today the Green movement is seeking the same great values and is continuing the [real] goals of the revolution and the holy defence [against Iraq]; and the martyrs of the Green movement and the warriors and woundees of this movement are the followers of the martyrs of the holly defence era [against the Iraqi occupying forces] especially in the liberation of Abadan and Khorramshar.

Today, the martyrs of the Green movement are carrying the same flag of the martyrs of the holy defence era and revive the memories of the devoted mothers that sang lullaby for the children of martyrs, soldiers and veterans. Today those children have risen from their cradles and each has become a warrior and a devotee. This is why the role of women, daughters and wives in the houses of martyrs as the flag bearers for purity, justice and freedom is truly unforgettable and will be our guide.

I would like to say to you that each has been the witness of the values of your martyrs that if this regime does not try to fulfill the demands and the transcendental and value-based expectations of the Green movement, then it will definitely fall by its own hands. The government should know that the nature of reform is to reform and not to overthrow. But it is possible that this regime with the path that it has chosen, overthrow itself. The government today has not turned 90 degrees but rather 180 degrees from the transcendental values of Islam, revolution and the holy defence era....

Our great Islamic Revolution put an end to 2500 years of monarchy and joined to the movement of prophets. These demands will never fail but if the current government does not reform itself and does not respond to the people’s demands, the Green movement will not overthrow it but rather the very own government will overthrow itself. We hope this will not happen. We would like everything to be reformed in the best way. We hope the regime itself becomes the pioneer for these demands and fulfill them but if it remains ignorant to people’s demands, then it is destroying itself.

0740 GMT: MediaWatch. Since we've chided CNN for its nuclear obsession, it's only fair to give a shout-out to Scherezade Faramarzi of the Associated Press, who posted on Sunday, "With Death Sentences, Iran Seeks to Cow Opposition".

0545 GMT: Execution. Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Abdul Hameed Rigi was hung this morning. He is the brother of Abdul Malek Rigi, the detained leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

0525 GMT: Slowly but steadily, the opposition is building up to 12 June. In the last 72 hours, there have been statements from Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Mousavi and Karroubi met on Sunday, although there are still no details of the discussion.
Seven opposition websites issued a statement declaring their goals as “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” and urging the public to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution”.

How and even whether these signals will translate into a challenge to the regime on the anniversary of the Presidential election is the big, unanswered question. But at least that question is being posed.

Not that this matter much, so far, to CNN. It is preoccupied with the state of play on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal for talks on uranium enrichment. Iran has said --- amidst some confusion amongst its state media --- that it will formally present the proposal to the International Atomic Energy Agency today, and CNN International is already pursing it lips: ""But can the Iranians be taken at their word?"

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

We are still chasing confirmation of the status of filmmakers Mohammad Nourizad and Jafar Panahi. There were reports, amidst meetings by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi with prisoners and their families, that the two would be freed --- pro-Government media were saying that Nourizad had been released, a report denied by Nourizad's daughter.

Student leader Majid Tavakoli has reportedly been taken back to solitary confinement and has threatened that he will go on hunger strike.

Amnesty International has posted a statement requesting "urgent action" over detainees Shiva Nazar Ahari and Kouhyar Goudarzi of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters (CHRR).

Sanctions Dance

In the continued manoeuvring over the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal and the US-led push for more sanctions, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday, "If I was in the place of Russian officials, I would adopt a more careful stance."

Russia has been on a non-stop balancing act since last week's moves, with Washington insisting that it has Russian support for a UN Security Council resolution punishing Tehran but Moscow also declaring that it will open Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant by August.