Monday
Nov102008
Iraq: Slouching Towards Limbo
Monday, November 10, 2008 at 20:55
So Iraq, after a break away from the front pages, will be back tomorrow. Dozens of people have been killed in three bombings in Baghdad, one in Baquba, and one in Samarra.
It's a sad reality that Iraq only makes Page 1 now with a series of incident like today's or with a carefully-packaged story by the US military on the state of the "surge". If you're thousands of miles away, there's an eerieness as tragedy makes a brief appearance and is then whisked out the door by the myth of American success. There is nothing in between.
Nothing, for example, in the US press on the quiet but significant British announcement that their soldiers are out by July 2009 and possibly by April. That's right, gone. The withdrawal of the 4100 troops may be spun as a testament to success, since violence in the south is down in recent months, but it is equally likely that the Brits will just slide away with little fanfare. This hasn't been London's fight for some time, and certainly not since Tony Blair stepped down as Prime Minister.
And the "minor" incidents of violence aren't likely be in your breakfast headlines. Consider, for example, this from yesterday:
Baghdad: Around 10 am a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in the Rubayee street in Zayuna neighborhood (east Baghdad). Six people were injured including two policemen.
Anbar: Around 9 am a female suicide bomber targeted the emergency room of the Amiriat Al-Falluja hospital. One woman was killed and five other people were injured including three women, Falluja police said.
Diyala: Around 9 am a bomb planted in garbage container detonated near the main market in downtown Baquba. One sweeper was killed and five other civilians were injured. A roadside bomb detonated in Khalis market ( north of Baquba). Five people were killed and 8 others were wounded including the district commissioner of Khalis town, Uday Al-Khathran.
Kirkuk: Gunmen riding in a Toyota pick up car kidnapped a policeman who was in his own car in Rashad town (southwest Kirkuk) on Saturday night, police said. Gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi check point in Askari neighborhood of Tuz Khurmatu (south of Kirkuk) around 5 am. Three soldiers were wounded.
Mosul: A roadside bomb detonated in Intisar neighborhood (downtown Mosul city). Two people were injured. Gunmen killed a policeman in front of his house in Ghizlani neighborhood in downtown Mosul. - A suicide car bomber targeted a police patrol in Mansour neighborhood in Mosul city around 5:30 pm. Eleven people were injured including 6 policemen. A roadside bomb targeted an army patrol in Al-Zihour neighborhood in Mosul city. Three soldiers were killed and seven people were injured including four soldiers.
But, maybe most significantly, you'll have to search long and hard for the latest on the proposed Status of Forces Agreement, which the US hopes will be in place when the UN mandate (the current basis for the occupation) expires on 31 December. After months of wrangling, the al-Maliki Government has passed its almost-final verdict on the arrangement: it's going to pass the buck. That is, caught between US insistence on exemption of its soldiers from Iraqi sovereignty and the opposition of much of the Iraqi population to the agreement, the Government will put the proposal to the Iraqi Parliament for a straight up-or-down vote.
No more negotiations, especially with a lame-duck Bush Administration. And given the mobilisation by key Iraqi groups --- the Sadrists, other Shi'a parties, and even some of the Sunnis whom the US has been touting as Awakened Allies, it's highly likely that the Parliament will have enough cover to throw the agreement back at Washington.
This political wrangling doesn't have the drama of "liberation" or an insurgent's bomb. It's far too complex to make for an easy read. And so it will probably continue to hide behind the "surge" tales and superfluous speculation of US troops out by end of 2011, mid-2011, end of 2010? In recent days, only the New York Times has broken cover to put forth any original thinking:
If the agreement is stymied, the United States and Iraq should ask the Security Council to extend its mandate. Or the two countries could agree to let the American forces keep operating until the pact is concluded.
The fact that the process is taking so long is also a reminder that there is no moving forward in Iraq without bringing Iran into the process — something Mr. Bush has fiercely resisted.
But, of course, that quick burst of thought merely stirs up a bit of trouble. Talking to Iran, the enemies next door to the former enemies in Iraq? Surely not.
And so we're likely, even in this time of "Change", to be falling back on more surge, surge, surge and little else (apart from inconvenient quintuple-bombings) for the near-future.
It's a sad reality that Iraq only makes Page 1 now with a series of incident like today's or with a carefully-packaged story by the US military on the state of the "surge". If you're thousands of miles away, there's an eerieness as tragedy makes a brief appearance and is then whisked out the door by the myth of American success. There is nothing in between.
Nothing, for example, in the US press on the quiet but significant British announcement that their soldiers are out by July 2009 and possibly by April. That's right, gone. The withdrawal of the 4100 troops may be spun as a testament to success, since violence in the south is down in recent months, but it is equally likely that the Brits will just slide away with little fanfare. This hasn't been London's fight for some time, and certainly not since Tony Blair stepped down as Prime Minister.
And the "minor" incidents of violence aren't likely be in your breakfast headlines. Consider, for example, this from yesterday:
Baghdad: Around 10 am a roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in the Rubayee street in Zayuna neighborhood (east Baghdad). Six people were injured including two policemen.
Anbar: Around 9 am a female suicide bomber targeted the emergency room of the Amiriat Al-Falluja hospital. One woman was killed and five other people were injured including three women, Falluja police said.
Diyala: Around 9 am a bomb planted in garbage container detonated near the main market in downtown Baquba. One sweeper was killed and five other civilians were injured. A roadside bomb detonated in Khalis market ( north of Baquba). Five people were killed and 8 others were wounded including the district commissioner of Khalis town, Uday Al-Khathran.
Kirkuk: Gunmen riding in a Toyota pick up car kidnapped a policeman who was in his own car in Rashad town (southwest Kirkuk) on Saturday night, police said. Gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi check point in Askari neighborhood of Tuz Khurmatu (south of Kirkuk) around 5 am. Three soldiers were wounded.
Mosul: A roadside bomb detonated in Intisar neighborhood (downtown Mosul city). Two people were injured. Gunmen killed a policeman in front of his house in Ghizlani neighborhood in downtown Mosul. - A suicide car bomber targeted a police patrol in Mansour neighborhood in Mosul city around 5:30 pm. Eleven people were injured including 6 policemen. A roadside bomb targeted an army patrol in Al-Zihour neighborhood in Mosul city. Three soldiers were killed and seven people were injured including four soldiers.
But, maybe most significantly, you'll have to search long and hard for the latest on the proposed Status of Forces Agreement, which the US hopes will be in place when the UN mandate (the current basis for the occupation) expires on 31 December. After months of wrangling, the al-Maliki Government has passed its almost-final verdict on the arrangement: it's going to pass the buck. That is, caught between US insistence on exemption of its soldiers from Iraqi sovereignty and the opposition of much of the Iraqi population to the agreement, the Government will put the proposal to the Iraqi Parliament for a straight up-or-down vote.
No more negotiations, especially with a lame-duck Bush Administration. And given the mobilisation by key Iraqi groups --- the Sadrists, other Shi'a parties, and even some of the Sunnis whom the US has been touting as Awakened Allies, it's highly likely that the Parliament will have enough cover to throw the agreement back at Washington.
This political wrangling doesn't have the drama of "liberation" or an insurgent's bomb. It's far too complex to make for an easy read. And so it will probably continue to hide behind the "surge" tales and superfluous speculation of US troops out by end of 2011, mid-2011, end of 2010? In recent days, only the New York Times has broken cover to put forth any original thinking:
If the agreement is stymied, the United States and Iraq should ask the Security Council to extend its mandate. Or the two countries could agree to let the American forces keep operating until the pact is concluded.
The fact that the process is taking so long is also a reminder that there is no moving forward in Iraq without bringing Iran into the process — something Mr. Bush has fiercely resisted.
But, of course, that quick burst of thought merely stirs up a bit of trouble. Talking to Iran, the enemies next door to the former enemies in Iraq? Surely not.
And so we're likely, even in this time of "Change", to be falling back on more surge, surge, surge and little else (apart from inconvenient quintuple-bombings) for the near-future.
tagged Nouri al-Maliki, Status of Forces Agreement, surge in Iraq
Nouri al-Maliki, Status of Forces Agreement, surge in Iraq