Sunday
Nov022008
A Guide to Watching the Election in Britain
Sunday, November 2, 2008 at 16:51
"Canuckistan" offers this helpful guide to combining election-watching and partying on Tuesday night. Remember, we'll be live blogging on Enduring America from 10 p.m. UK time:
"The first significant state to watch is the first one where the polls close: the state of Indiana---the results from here will be available just after 11 p.m. UK time. Indiana has not gone for a Democratic candidate since 1964. George Bush won the state easily in 2000 and 2004. If the state is quickly declared for John McCain then it is a signal of trouble for Obama. On the other hand, if the result takes a while to be declared, even if in the end it goes to McCain, that is a very good sign for Obama as it is an indication that his supporters are turning out. It was Indiana, by the way, that effectively finished the chances of Hillary Clinton against Obama for the Democratic nomination when she barely won the primary there.
The next key result comes in at 12:30 a.m. UK time when polls close in Ohio. No Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. If Obama wins here, and polls show him ahead, then that will be a strong indication he is going to have a very good night. Remember that if John Kerry had won Ohio in 2004 he would be president.
Then comes 1 a.m. UK time and the polls closing in Pennsylvania. McCain has staked his entire campaign on winning this state which has not gone for a Republican candidate since 1988. Pennsylvania is the only Democratic state from 2004 that McCain is targetting in a semi-realistic fashion. If Obama wins here, then it will only be a matter of time until he is declared the victor.
I predict that the election will be called for Obama between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the 77 electoral college votes from California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are added to his column."
"The first significant state to watch is the first one where the polls close: the state of Indiana---the results from here will be available just after 11 p.m. UK time. Indiana has not gone for a Democratic candidate since 1964. George Bush won the state easily in 2000 and 2004. If the state is quickly declared for John McCain then it is a signal of trouble for Obama. On the other hand, if the result takes a while to be declared, even if in the end it goes to McCain, that is a very good sign for Obama as it is an indication that his supporters are turning out. It was Indiana, by the way, that effectively finished the chances of Hillary Clinton against Obama for the Democratic nomination when she barely won the primary there.
The next key result comes in at 12:30 a.m. UK time when polls close in Ohio. No Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. If Obama wins here, and polls show him ahead, then that will be a strong indication he is going to have a very good night. Remember that if John Kerry had won Ohio in 2004 he would be president.
Then comes 1 a.m. UK time and the polls closing in Pennsylvania. McCain has staked his entire campaign on winning this state which has not gone for a Republican candidate since 1988. Pennsylvania is the only Democratic state from 2004 that McCain is targetting in a semi-realistic fashion. If Obama wins here, then it will only be a matter of time until he is declared the victor.
I predict that the election will be called for Obama between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the 77 electoral college votes from California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are added to his column."
tagged UK, US Election, prediction in US Politics
UK, US Election, prediction in US Politics