The Other Battlefield: Tonight's Senate Races

This is an update of Enduring America's original projection on 28 October.

YOUR ESSENTIAL SUMMARY: DEMOCRATS PICK UP SEVEN SENATE SEATS, WITH AN 8TH WITHIN REACH IN MINNESOTA

In the current Senate, the Democrats and Republicans each hold 49 seats. The Democrats only maintain a nominal advantage because two Independents, Lieberman of Connecticut and Sanders of Vermont, vote with the Democratic caucus.

There are 35 seats, all but one with a six-year term, being contested tonight. The Democrats should easily hold all 12 of the seats they are defending. The Republicans, however, are vulnerable in no less than 11 of their seats.

SAFE REPUBLICAN HOLDS: 12

Alabama (Sessions), Idaho (Risch), Kansas (Roberts), Maine (Collins), Mississippi (Cochran), Nebraska (Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Texas (Cornyn), Wyoming-1 (Barrasso --- 4-year replacement term), Wyoming-2 (Enzi)

SAFE DEMOCRATIC HOLDS: 12

Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), New Jersey (Lautenberg), Rhode Island (Reed), Johnson (South Dakota), West Virginia (Rockefeller)

THE RACES: 11 (Republican Incumbents marked with an *)

ALASKA: STEVENS (R*) v. BEGICH (D)

One to celebrate. The wily, rude, but now criminally-convicted Stevens has been doomed by his felon status....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

COLORADO: SCHAFFER (R) v. M. UDALL (D)

Udall, one of two members of a prominent political family running this year, is more than 10 points up in polls....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

GEORGIA: CHAMBLISS (R*) v. MARTIN (D)

Hate to say it, given the despicable way Chambliss unseated Max Cleland in 2002, but he's out of trouble now....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

KENTUCKY: MCCONNELL (R*) v. LUNSFORD (D)

The potential embarrassment of embarrassment for Republicans, with Senate Minority Leader McConnell suddenly in a real electoral battle. His lead has widened in the last week....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

MINNESOTA: COLEMAN (R*) v. FRANKEN (D)

The race of Senate races. Franken, the comedian/author turned campaigner, came from far back to take the lead in the polls in October. There's been a swing to Coleman in recent days, however. Even harder to call because there is an independent currently taking more than 15 percent of the vote in surveys.

NARROW REPUBLICAN HOLD

MISSISIPPI: WICKER (R*) v. MUSGROVE (D)

Actually, this one was never in question but there was a flutter amidst the Democratic rush in the polls during mid-October....

NEAR-CERTAIN REPUBLICAN HOLD

NEW HAMPSHIRE: SUNUNU (R*) v. SHAHEEN (D)

Former Governor Shaheen, running a strong race, knocks off Sununu, the son of a former Republican White House Chief of Staff....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

NEW MEXICO: PEARCE (R) v. T. UDALL (D)

Udall is even safer than his cousin in Colorado, holding a 15-point lead....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

NORTH CAROLINA: DOLE (R*) v. HAGAN (D)

An uphilll battle for the former Secretary of Transportation and wife of former Presidential candidate Bob Dole....

PROBABLE DEMOCRAT GAIN

OREGON: SMITH (R*) v. MERKLEY (D)

Republican Smith distances himself from President Bush, tries to embrace Obama, fails to save himself....

PROBABLE DEMOCRAT GAIN

VIRGINIA: GILMORE (R) v. WARNER (D)

A race between two former Governors is no contest --- Warner's victory is both a sign of and a boost to the likely Obama success in the state....

NEAR-CERTAIN DEMOCRAT GAIN

Election Day: A State-by-State Guide

This is an update of Enduring America's original projection from 27 October.



Remember, first to 270 electoral votes gets to hang the curtains in the Oval Office:

SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES (Total 238 electoral votes):

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES (Total 163 electoral votes):

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

THE STATES IN PLAY --- FROM EARLIEST TO LATEST

Polls Close 11 p.m. British Daylight Time

INDIANA (11 electoral votes --- 6 p.m. Local)

Came into play a few weeks ago during Obama's surge amidst the economic crisis. Always a challenging target, however, with a strong Republican base amidst the rural population and a popular Republican Governor.

Likely Republican

Polls close midnight BDT

VIRGINIA (13 --- 7 p.m. local)

Republican for the last 40 years but a changing population, a strong Democratic Governor and popular Democratic Senator, and Bush unpopularity helped Democratic organisation tip this one to Obama. If the race is declared here, then the election is over barring a Republican surprise in Pennsylvania.

Likely Democrat

FLORIDA (27 --- 7 p.m. local)

The biggest state up for grabs, and one of the three most challenging to call. Strong Democratic voter registration may be the deciding factor in a state mixed amongst ethnicities, racial and religious background, and political views.

Possible Democrat

Polls close 12:30 a.m. BDT

OHIO (20 --- 7:30 p.m. local)

The state that handed George W. Bush the 2004 election has always been a bellwether for this election. A close and hard-fought race throughout the campaign, but strong turnout in urban areas may maintain the slight Democratic edge.

Possible Democrat

NORTH CAROLINA (15 --- 7:30 p.m. local)

A divided state --- where else could you get Senator Jesse Helms and Senator John Edwards side-by-side --- but changing population, for example, the white-collar influx into the Research Triangle, offers new possibilities for Democrats this year. Still a hard call.

Possible Republican

Polls close 1 a.m. BDT

PENNSYLVANIA (21 --- 8 p.m. local)

The only possible Democratic-held target and Get Out of Jail state for McCain-Palin. If they could somewhat convert that (white) working-class rhetoric into votes, then maybe they could swing this to their column. Always a long-shot, however, and Obama seems to have checked any last-minute comeback.

When this one is called --- presuming Obama has taken one of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida --- you Brits can go to bed.

MISSOURI (11 --- 7 p.m. local)

Media folks love this one for the fact that the state has picked the winning candidate for the last 100 years. Hard to call if Missouri will preserve that record by tipping to Obama --- the urban-rural mix and indeed the issue of a high African-American vote in the St. Louis area come into play here.

Toss-up

Polls close 2 a.m. BDT

COLORADO (9 --- 7 p.m. local)

In a state where power shifts between city "liberals" and rural "conservatives", complemented by a strong evangelical presence, the Democrats have taken the edge in both local and national races.

Likely Democrat

NEW MEXICO (5 --- 7 p.m. local)

An outstanding effort from the Democrats, with the Hispanic vote tipping their way and voters across age and education ranges coming out for them, makes this a huge symbolic victory in a state that was on a knife-edge in the last two elections.

Likely Democrat

Polls close 3 a.m. BDT

NEVADA (5 --- 8 p.m. local)

Bring out the final stereotypes of the evening. The gamblers and cowboys make the headlines, the unions make the difference for Obama.

Likely Democrat

Scott Lucas on BBC WM Radio

Scott Lucas appeared on BBC WM's Breakfast Programme to offer a run-through of the US electoral system and the likely outcome of tonight's Presidential contest.

The piece can be accessed via "Listen Again" --- it's just after the 30-minute mark.

Scott speaking on BRMB

Yesterday Scott spoke to Birmingham radio station BRMB:

Scott told BRMB: "If you can make it to a bookmaker, don't necessarily put your kids but put a few pounds on Obama, he's going to win, he's going to win comfortably and we might even get to bed at a reasonable hour knowing who the 44th President is."

You can listen to the full interview here.

Enduring America's Election Night Anthem

"Canuckistan", backing a fellow Canadian, offers the opening suggestion for our theme song:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biVUZwBAc9I&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=%22Leonard+Cohen%22+democracy&emb=0&aq=f[/youtube]

With regret, I have to admit that Leonard Cohen's "Democracy" may be better than my own selection, a tribute to the outgoing President:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbmarWHlKTQ&feature=related[/youtube]

Of course, Enduring America welcomes your suggestions --- the final choice will be declared at 9 p.m. British time when we open the live blog.