Election Morning: Revised Projection --- Obama 338, McCain 200

More than a dozen overnight polls have settled in a remarkably narrow range of a lead of about 7 points for Obama-Biden. If they are on the mark, Obama has not only checked McCain's fight-back of the last week but has slightly widened his advantage.

In light of this national trend and --- more importantly --- early voting patterns and state polls, Enduring America is now putting Florida back in the Democratic camp. The Obama lead in trend-adjusted polls is 2 percent. How much those polls draw from voters who have already cast their ballots rather than those who will show up today is unknown, but we think the combination of a consistent if slight Democratic lead and the mobilisation of Democratic-registered voters will give Obama-Biden the edge.

Beyond Florida, the two states most in doubt are Missouri (the closest of all races at this point) and North Carolina (Republican lead of about 1 point). That, however, is the extent of a glimmer of hope for McCain:

1. Pennsylvania, the one state that the GOP hoped to pull back from the Democrats, seems well beyond reach. Obama is up around 8 points across the polls.

2. These states held by the Republicans in 2004, and thus the margin of victory for George W. Bush, are now likely to fall to the Democrats: Virginia (Democrats up 5-6), New Mexico (Democrats up more than 10), Colorado (Democrats up 6-7), and Nevada (Democrats up 5). Even Ohio, where the Republicans were closing to within toss-up range, appears beyond reach --- Democrats are up 4.

We'll have a full run-down of the states later in preparation for Election Night live blog (from 9 p.m. British time), as well as a break-down of the key contests in Congress. We might have even a couple of "The Worst of Election 2008" stories.

Worst Election 2008 Story: Obama Loses, Blacks Riot

I first noticed the story 10 days ago in the Daily Telegraph of London: "Police Fear Riots If Obama Loses US Election".

Needless to say, I hit an inner panic button --- who was I to say that the uprising might not spread to threaten a white guy in Birmingham, England? So I read on:

In Oakland, near San Francisco, police will have tactical squads, SWAT teams and officers trained in riot control on standby.

"We always try to prepare for the worst," said Oakland police department spokesman Jeff Thomason.

"This election is going to mark in history a change in the presidency: you're going to have a woman in the presidency or an African American as president. I think everybody around here is voting for Obama, so if he gets in the White House everybody's going to be happy.

"But we'll have our SWAT teams on standby and traffic teams here, so if something goes off we'll organise and take care of the problem."

That's it? A police department prepares for crowds on Election Night which --- newsflash --- it does whether or not the winning/losing candidate is black, a woman, an old white fella, or a Martian, and this turns into a tide of fear across the United States? But, wait, here comes the clinching evidence:

There have also been internet rumours about plans for protests or civil disobedience by supporters of Democratic candidate Barack Obama if he is beaten by Republican rival John McCain on November 4.

Ahh, Internet rumours. Well, that clinches the story --- no doubt the Telegraph can update by citing the reports of reliable sources such as Enduring America.

Then again, it was not just an isolated example of journalism in a "quality" British newspaper, right? Well, two days later, my wife returned from a trip to northwest England to report that her mother was panicking over this in the Daily Mail:

Barack Obama is already planning a £1.5million election victory party - while police prepare for the possibility of riots across America if the White House vote goes against him.

The same Oakland spokesman re-appeared, joined this time by the authority Bob Parks, "an internet columnist and black Republican candidate for state representative in Massachusetts": "If Obama is elected, like with sports championships, people may go out and riot. ‘If Barack Obama loses there will be another large group of people who will assume the election was stolen from him. This will be an opportunity for people who want to commit mischief."

Ahh, those mischievous "people", who of course are never identified by skin colour. They reappeared in the Irish Independent, which at least had the courtesy to add a balancing quote from a Detroit policeman, "that problems could flare whichever candidate won".

I take Canuckistan's point that the election of Obama could be a momentous symbol, one which societies outside the United States might wish to consider. I would be even more heartened if the newspapers in those countries, even as they are hailing a candidate of African-American descent, weren't making unsubtle allusions to the dangerous Darkies on the streets.

Monday Evening Update: Democratic Advantage in Florida?

"Canuckistan" passes on a bit of information which could be significant, at least for the final margin of Democratic victory. According to National Public Radio, early voting returns in Florida have given the Democrats a 300,000-vote advantage. In contrast, in 2004, the Republicans were 150,000 votes ahead.

Part of the swing is undoubtedly the sharp increase in registered Democrats getting their ballots in early. MSNBC noted two weeks ago that, on the first day of voting on 20 Octobers, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 56-28 percent in those casting votes. Two years ago, the margin was only 45-42.

I suspect that this bit of information, as well as a slight bump in the polls for Obama, explains why FiveThirtyEight.com have moved Florida from a toss-up to a likely (64%) win for the Democrats. I'm not yet convinced, given that McCain had closed in recent days --- it will come down to whether the Republicans can mobilise their forces in the same way that the Democrats have built up their registration and voter mobilisation campaigns.

A final projection on Florida will be made tomorrow morning.

A bit of further checking turns up the original story, from McClatchy News Services in the Miami Herald. As of 30 October, 46 percent of those voting were Democrats, 38 percent Republicans. About 2.6 million people had voted, which could be close to 1/3 of the final turnout.

A note of caution, however. Just because a voter is a registered Democrat doesn't mean he/she will vote Obama-Biden, or conversely that a registered Republican will push the button for McCain-Palin. And there are those 18 percent of early voters who are unaffiliated to either party.

Election Update: Projections from "Canuckistan"

This just in from "Canuckistan":

1. Barack Obama will win 326 to 212 over McCain in the electoral college votes. The election will be declared for him by 5 a.m. at the latest and more likely between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the polls in 4 states (Hawaii, California, Washington, and Oregon) that Obama will easily win and which are worth 77 electoral college votes close.

2. Conventional wisdom turned out to be correct. All of the forecasts had this as a Democratic year because of the end of 8 years of Republican domination, the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and the decline in the U.S. economy. The breakdown of the economy in October only reinforced this and trumped concern that some voters had about Obama being untested. A sign that it is a Democratic year is that the Dems will also do well in the House and Senate elections. They've been gearing up for this election and the hotly contested battle between Clinton and Obama for the nomination aided in this result becauase it led to the signing up of many new voters and organizations on the ground right across the U.S.

3. Expect radical change in appearance but less in substance in that Obama is planning on committing more troops to Afghanistan and will not be quickly able to pull out of Iraq. The economic downturn in the U.S. leaves him with little wiggle room at home.

4. Win or lose, the candidacy of Barack Obama is a remarkable achievement and demonstrates how far the United States has come in terms of race relations. He will almost certainly win Virginia, once home to the capital of the confederacy. The seriousness of his candidacy also offers a challenge to western democracies who often look rather smugly toward the United States when it comes to racism: where is the British Barack Obama? Where is the French Barack Obama? Where is the Canadian Barack Obama? Where is the German Barack Obama?

Enduring America: Leading the Way in Political Analysis

A moment of immodesty: RealClearPolitics, on their electoral map with no "toss-up" states, have just flipped North Carolina from Obama to McCain --- this following our own call for North Carolina for the Republicans. RCP still hasn't moved Florida to the GOP's column: when they do, they will have caught up with us state-for-state.

For us, it's safety in numbers: if McCain-Palin pull off an upset, at least we'll all go down together.