Monday Evening Update: Democratic Advantage in Florida?

"Canuckistan" passes on a bit of information which could be significant, at least for the final margin of Democratic victory. According to National Public Radio, early voting returns in Florida have given the Democrats a 300,000-vote advantage. In contrast, in 2004, the Republicans were 150,000 votes ahead.

Part of the swing is undoubtedly the sharp increase in registered Democrats getting their ballots in early. MSNBC noted two weeks ago that, on the first day of voting on 20 Octobers, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 56-28 percent in those casting votes. Two years ago, the margin was only 45-42.

I suspect that this bit of information, as well as a slight bump in the polls for Obama, explains why FiveThirtyEight.com have moved Florida from a toss-up to a likely (64%) win for the Democrats. I'm not yet convinced, given that McCain had closed in recent days --- it will come down to whether the Republicans can mobilise their forces in the same way that the Democrats have built up their registration and voter mobilisation campaigns.

A final projection on Florida will be made tomorrow morning.

A bit of further checking turns up the original story, from McClatchy News Services in the Miami Herald. As of 30 October, 46 percent of those voting were Democrats, 38 percent Republicans. About 2.6 million people had voted, which could be close to 1/3 of the final turnout.

A note of caution, however. Just because a voter is a registered Democrat doesn't mean he/she will vote Obama-Biden, or conversely that a registered Republican will push the button for McCain-Palin. And there are those 18 percent of early voters who are unaffiliated to either party.