Monday
Nov032008
Election Update: Projections from "Canuckistan"
Monday, November 3, 2008 at 16:15
This just in from "Canuckistan":
1. Barack Obama will win 326 to 212 over McCain in the electoral college votes. The election will be declared for him by 5 a.m. at the latest and more likely between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the polls in 4 states (Hawaii, California, Washington, and Oregon) that Obama will easily win and which are worth 77 electoral college votes close.
2. Conventional wisdom turned out to be correct. All of the forecasts had this as a Democratic year because of the end of 8 years of Republican domination, the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and the decline in the U.S. economy. The breakdown of the economy in October only reinforced this and trumped concern that some voters had about Obama being untested. A sign that it is a Democratic year is that the Dems will also do well in the House and Senate elections. They've been gearing up for this election and the hotly contested battle between Clinton and Obama for the nomination aided in this result becauase it led to the signing up of many new voters and organizations on the ground right across the U.S.
3. Expect radical change in appearance but less in substance in that Obama is planning on committing more troops to Afghanistan and will not be quickly able to pull out of Iraq. The economic downturn in the U.S. leaves him with little wiggle room at home.
4. Win or lose, the candidacy of Barack Obama is a remarkable achievement and demonstrates how far the United States has come in terms of race relations. He will almost certainly win Virginia, once home to the capital of the confederacy. The seriousness of his candidacy also offers a challenge to western democracies who often look rather smugly toward the United States when it comes to racism: where is the British Barack Obama? Where is the French Barack Obama? Where is the Canadian Barack Obama? Where is the German Barack Obama?
1. Barack Obama will win 326 to 212 over McCain in the electoral college votes. The election will be declared for him by 5 a.m. at the latest and more likely between 4 and 4:30 a.m. when the polls in 4 states (Hawaii, California, Washington, and Oregon) that Obama will easily win and which are worth 77 electoral college votes close.
2. Conventional wisdom turned out to be correct. All of the forecasts had this as a Democratic year because of the end of 8 years of Republican domination, the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and the decline in the U.S. economy. The breakdown of the economy in October only reinforced this and trumped concern that some voters had about Obama being untested. A sign that it is a Democratic year is that the Dems will also do well in the House and Senate elections. They've been gearing up for this election and the hotly contested battle between Clinton and Obama for the nomination aided in this result becauase it led to the signing up of many new voters and organizations on the ground right across the U.S.
3. Expect radical change in appearance but less in substance in that Obama is planning on committing more troops to Afghanistan and will not be quickly able to pull out of Iraq. The economic downturn in the U.S. leaves him with little wiggle room at home.
4. Win or lose, the candidacy of Barack Obama is a remarkable achievement and demonstrates how far the United States has come in terms of race relations. He will almost certainly win Virginia, once home to the capital of the confederacy. The seriousness of his candidacy also offers a challenge to western democracies who often look rather smugly toward the United States when it comes to racism: where is the British Barack Obama? Where is the French Barack Obama? Where is the Canadian Barack Obama? Where is the German Barack Obama?
tagged US Election, prediction in US Politics
US Election, prediction in US Politics
Reader Comments (2)
I think it might be a tad closer than Canuckistan reckons... but not by much. Obama to get 310-320 votes
Well I now have money riding on Obama getting 310-329, so here's hoping Canuckistan is right.