Saturday
Nov142009
Enduring America on the Road: A Dublin Discussion on Blogging and Iran
Saturday, November 14, 2009 at 11:55 
I'm taking a couple of days off before a Monday night discussion at the Clinton Institute for American Studies, University College Dublin, on blogging, "new media", and the post-election crisis in Iran. Mike Dunn will be ensuring no fistfights break out on the site and will be waiting for your ideas, comments, and stories. And there will be Sunday features on Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.I'll be checking in during the weekend and will be back full-time on Monday afternoon.
Reader Comments (36)
Hi Shangool
I wasn't thinking of "active" military support from Jordan and Saudi Arabia - just open skies. And access to the Suez from Egypt.
And if you are referring to the so-called "Lebanon War" of 2006 - this wasn't a war. 1967 ( 6 Day war) and 1973 (Yom Kippur War ) were wars.
Anyway - we are probably now going around in circles. It certainly "feels" like something is building. Some interesting statements coming out of Russia as well. Iran is not very popular in the world - except maybe for some other dictatorial regimes
Barry
Megan
An Israeli attack against Iran is a different scenario than operation desert storm. Iraq, a sunni muslim nation invaded another sunni muslim nation. An attack from Israel will be concidered an ideological war and therefore make it almost impossible for the muslim nations to support.
let me be clear, I hate the mullah regime, but its not accurate to say that all surrounding muslim nations hate it. Iraq with 55% shiite have close ties with Tehran, Malaki is concidered to be an allie of Iran, Afghanistan 40%shiite. Syria has close relations with Iran. Lebanon, Bahrain with 70%shiite, although the government of Bahrain oppose Iranian influence, its people support the regime in tehran. Then we have the palestinians in Jordan, west bank and Gaza who support Iran.
I was talking about Iraq and the 2006 war. Hezbollah emerged as the "winner" of the 2006 war. Iran clearly defeated US in Iraq. proxy wars. General Wesley Clark explained it in those terms in an interview.
I do not oppose a military action against Iran, but the reason should rather be, Irans support for non-state armed groups, Irans viaolation of human rights.
It will be interesting to see how things play out before Obama`s visit to Oslo. I personally think that a military confrontation is inevitable. The downside is, it could give AN and SL a 20 year lifespan.
I am late and so a just a few points: Iran and Hezbollah did not "defeat" the U.S. and Israel in 2006, you must not be looking at the reality seriously and are taken by the propaganda coming from IRI. Take a look at the devastation. Iran's regime only lies but this does not mean that intelligent people should accept it. Iran did come out well in Iraq but again look at the realities down in Naseriyya, people are beginning to hate the Iranian regime. That Maleki and co. pay lip service is clearly motivated by a complex that includes such variables as fear and as economic gain. Don't think that Iran's armed forces are in any way a match for a modern one. Their best assets are missiles, but accuracy is not clear. One reason they are so desperate to get their hands on nuclear arms is in fact because of the outdated armed forces and the totally ineffective air force. They are best at cunning ways and the West is often fooled. They are also good at fooling others to fight for them, by several means, false ideology one of them. There are a good number of people who say out loud that they want the U.S.to bomb, now this is rather symbolic and does not reflect clear thinking, but it is an indication that people are fed up with the 30-year old brutality and abuses of human rights, etc. No one has an equal opportunity no matter how hard they try. There is no clear, legal, free for all, set of rules that govern conduct. People are desperate, very desperate. The regime has done nothing for the people and this fact is becoming rapidly and widely known. You cannot be in any place in public, shops, taxis, street corners, buses, depots, offices, everywhere, and not hear very severe swearing said of the main people in the regime and this hatred is beginning to manifest itself in small towns, unheard of in recent history. Also, nothing is being done, the economy is in utter chaos. No one buys property, the staple of economical movement. Nothing. This, if it lasts any longer, will be yet another serous blow to the regime, more hatred and more dissent. More people wanting to bring about serious change. Nothing to lose. There is nothing gained in 30 years to lose. Let me tell you, I fear the level of chaos when things blow over. The black shirt gard-e vijeh will split in many parts. No one sees any positive thing done, unless of course you are among the very small number of those who belong to the system and are supported bu it, are paid, have access to large amounts of money by corruption, have power, etc. But even there we see cracks starting. While people are losing their fear of being killed and tortured and such the regime is showing fear. This is I would say the most significant sentiment people are observing. The impact of all of this on society is immense.
Now back to war, let us not forget that the saber rattling by the Pasdaran is not just hot air. There are factions who really want a war, and if they have the bomb will use it in the false belief that the act will be so blatant that he West will be powerless to react. A lot of them don't know the level of destruction war will bring upon them. People may revolt, and that is what A.N. and co. fear most of all. The amount of money spent on internal security forces, on special guards, gard-e vijeh (the black clothed specialists who pt down people in demonstrations), and similar groups is much more than that spent on the regular army, who has to subsist hand to mouth. The guard has one main objective: put down internal opposition at all cost. If there is war these guards will turn on people not on anyone else. The regime thinks, too, that a fight, a proxy war will build their shattered credibility in Muslim countries and they desire it without really knowing the dire consequences. Lot of people in Iran think that a real war (not must limited air strikes on Natanz and such) will topple the regime, but there will be chaos and it will be bloody. Western anlysts who are saying the Green is finished and that it does not amount to anything are almost completely wrong, they have not looked at the widespread dissent and huge numbers of people who hate, really hate, the regime. There may be a majority of those who oppose the regime and will take to the street in case of war. Certainly in certain regions even now the level of hatred is so much it is visible. Right nwo things are in a shapeless state, without form, but these blob is moving and is growing. It will take shape, and war will cause it to burst, and then I fear, but the end maybe the only solution to this chaos to this brutality and to this lying false regime that has caused so much havoc in the ME and is so much in opposition to peace. In the end the shapeless blob will be shaped into a meaningful structure driven by desired for peace and freedom. The price may be very high in more blood but this may be the only solution. The alternative is so severe for humanity that I shudder. I think if this regime does not change the future of certainly peoples of all of the ME will be ruined and humanity will be suffering seriously. Take a good look people, this is not a joke. Do not think by kowtowing you will cause it to change or by bribing or by giving it respect, none of this will work. Have to run!
Hosein
we`ll just have to disagree on the 2006 war. I agree with you that Irans military is no match against a modern military, but military technology and equipment is not a key factor if war breaks out between Iran and us/israel. it will be asymmetrical warfare. look at afghanistan, us and nato haven`t been able to defeat taliban.
The bigger question is, what will be the consequense of an Israeli / US attack on Iran?
Hossein,
You give me hope. If at least 50 percent of Iranians share your views, the sun will shine on Iran soon.
History has shown us that freedom has never been free. I do agree with you that it will not come free for Iranians either but anything will be better than living under occupation of this 8th century mullah regime. I heard an Iranian declaring that they (meaning mullahs) have made us cry for Imam Hossein (grandson of Mohammad) for 1400 years but when we get done with them (Iran regime of mullahs) Imam Hoessin will be crying for them. Let’s hope that your children and grandchildren do not have to live under occupation.
Shangool
I don't believe that many want more war in the Middle East. As I have said, the "western" public are sick and tired of the place. They wish it would ALL just magically go away.
It would cause immense consequences to the whole world. ( Although there has been wars and upset in the Middle East oilfields before and the World has survived the turmoil - remember all those oil rigs that Saddam set alight)
But - I believe that Ahmadinejad has really overplayed his hand over the past several years. He has taunted the Israelis with their most basic horror. Extinction! This was done to them once before - and nobody really noticed it (or ignored it), until the person that proposed it actually attempted it. The current State of Israel was very much founded on the concept that this WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN - under any circumstances.
There is a famous novel by George Orwell - 1984. In it there is a Chapter that plays on our phobias - those very personal things that we all (as human individuals) cannot even bear to think about. If you are unaware of what I am talking about , see here -- Room 101 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_101 " You asked me once, what was in Room 101. I told you that you knew the answer already. Everyone knows it. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world."
The Israelis Room 101 is the threat of extinction. They have historically lived with it almost forever- and it is their most driving force.
Ahmadinejad has really pressed the Israelis red button - very dangerous ground indeed. But perhaps he actually knows that and it suits his purposes.
Barry
Shangool,
I usually am pretty in sync with your thinking. Today, however, I find myself in disagreement with you on some points. I think Hoesein addressed most of it. I only would like to add a couple of points.
1. I do not think this conflict will come to military confrontation. Why? Current U.S. administration does not have the spine and the treasure for direct confrontation nor would U.S. entertain a proxy war via Israel (at least not now). For now we are too busy bowing to other world leaders. I fear we may even shake hand with Osama Bin Laden and apologize for bombing his cave or shake Iran mullah Ali’s fist as we are bowing to him.
2. In case Israel goes rogue (which I highly suspect) it will be the end of this current Iranian regime, AN, SL and all of their thugs. Why? As Hossein mentioned Iranians are fully alert today and have their fingers pointed to the direction of real bad guys. I do not believe regime will be able to rally people this time. With regard to Iran military, they will not put their lives on the line for this morally bankrupt system of government. Regime’s fat cats, IRG and Basiji, are empty drums, they may sound big but they are hollow. They beat women in the streets but beg for mercy when caught and their weapons are taken away (we saw that a few times on videos from Iran). I believe these unshaved slobs will hide in their holes and may even escape borrowing their wives chador.
As Hossein stated all is needed is a crack. Not living in Iran, I do not know whether such a crack can be brought about by military strike or wide ranging sanctions, or implosion of Iran economy, or massive and sustained civil disobedient by people or general strike.
Megan
I think there is a greater chance that Israel will attack than US, but the US will as a consequense be drawn into a war with Iran whether Obama likes it or not.
We both agree that this regime must disappear. The question is then,how? what will be the best way to get rid of these thugs?
Mousavi,Khatami,Hashemi and Karoubi, I doubt they can achieve anything. so what other options is left?
1) an attack from US/Israel, can create a power vacum which can be exploited, there is no loyalty amongst the IRGC and basij. it could encourage people to rise up, or they rally around the flag.
2) massive protests followed by nation wide strikes.
3) sanctions, I doubt sanctions will have any effect, the IRGC control the blackmarket, the oil industri and everything else.
I wish we had Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush in the white house now.
Shangool,
We definitely need some grownups in the White House now, don’t we?
I do agree with your assessment of Mousavi, Khatami, Hashemi and Karoubi. I hope people in Iran have come to the same conclusion. I just hope there will not be too much loss of life especially the younger people who have had so little under this regime.
Barry
I think Ahmadinejad smokes too much opium, it makes him delusional.
"I think Ahmadinejad smokes too much opium, it makes him delusional."
Hi Shangool
In 1933, Hitler was also delusional - but look how far he took things before he was stopped , and what an effort to finally stop him!
He "should" have been stopped much earlier - but then (as now) the western world was weary of war, and appeasement (UK) and isolationism (US) was preferred by those ruling at the time.
Barry