Analysis: The Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy Game

At first, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam on Saturday that the Palestinian Authority is considering seeking recognition from the United Nations Security Council of a Palestinian state along 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

On Sunday (which was the anniversary of the symbolic Nov. 15, 1988 declaration of independence by the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat), Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said that the Palestinian Authority is working on a two-year development plan aimed at consolidating the groundwork for independence. It was also stated that these two issues- applying to the United Nations Security Council to have the independence legitimized in the eyes of international law, and the two-year-long economic development plan- were separate issues. Fayyad said:

I know some people are concerned that this is unilateral development plan. But it seems to me that it is unilateral in a healthy sense of self-development.

However these two statements are lacking a strong vision when it comes to the realities of the region. First of all, as I stated yesterday, there is no need to guess at Washington's approach to an appeal for a unilateral demand to be recognized in the UN Security Council. Secondly, the fact that the first plan cannot be achieved overnight breaks apart the claim that they are not inter-related. Fayyad stated that they need two years in which the economic power of the Palestinian Authority can be strengthened - a plan that he hopes will weaken Israel's position and gain US support. Of course, it is not possible and not consistent with the realities Palestinians face today. Can anyone think of an economic development in the West Bank that will strengthen the Palestinian Authority politically yet weaken Tel Aviv, as if the latter has no interest in this land's economic development? Do not forget that it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been highlighting "the significance of the economic development of the West Bank"! So, the economic liberalization process of the West Bank is already in Tel Aviv's interest.

The statements from the Palestinian Authority are aimed at consolidating their position and strengthening it legitimacy in the West Bank, and are not rationally-formulated and strongly-believed plans to make progress toward peace. In other words, they have grown out domestic concerns rather than any deep and wise plans to save Palestine from Israeli occupation.

On the other side of this game, Netanyahu warned that Israel would respond to any unilateral Palestinian steps - particularly declarations of statehood - with one-sided steps of its own. He said:

There is no substitute for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and any unilateral path will only unravel the framework of agreements between us and will only bring unilateral steps from Israel's side.

At the end of the day, there is still a big question as to whether the statements of the Palestinian Authority will work as they desire them to- are they pushing Netanyahu into the corner or are they merely helping Netanyahu show the Israeli public how "uncompromising" Palestinians are following Netanyahu's continuing rhetoric that "Israel is ready to sit at the negotiating table without any pre-conditions?"

Yes, Washington is stuck in the middle of this game. However, the Obama Administration needs to work harder than ever and show its seriousness with concrete action on both sides.

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On Monday, Palestinian officials reiterated their position that there will be no progress in talks unless there is a freeze in Israeli settlements. The declaration came even as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Arab foreign ministers, praising both sides in an effort to convince Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to return to the negotiation table.

After a meeting between Abbas and US special envoy George Mitchell in Amman, the chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said, "The President made it clear during the meeting that peace cannot be achieved with the continuation of the settlement activity." Responding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's accusations of Palestinian "preconditions", he asserted: "We do not put conditions for resuming negotiations, but we want the talks resumed on the basis of the provisions of the road map, which stipulates the cessation of all forms of settlement activity in the Palestinian territories." Erekat added that Mitchell emphasized there was no change in the US attitude, which rejects the Israeli expansion of settlements.

Later, answering Arab foreign ministers' criticisms that Washington was "too soft" on Israel, Clinton said:

The Israelis have responded to the call of the U.S., the Palestinians and the Arab world to stop settlement activity by expressing a willingness to restrain settlement activity.

This offer [Israel's offer to restraint settlement activities] falls far short of what our preference would be, but if it is acted upon it will be an unprecedented restriction on settlements and would have a significant and meaningful effect on restraining their growth.

When either party takes any step that looks like it moves us in the right direction, even if it is not what I would like or I would prefer, I am going to positively reinforce that.

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Clinton’s Trip: Desperately Seeking Israeli Concessions

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Despite US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's "positive statements" after her meetings with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, criticisms from the Arab side escalated on Sunday.

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat denounced Clinton's proclamation of "unprecedented" concessions from the Israeli side:

What the Israelis are offering is not unprecedented. What would be unprecedented is a comprehensive settlement freeze by Israel... and a halt to Israeli policies in occupied East Jerusalem such as home demolitions, evictions and rapid settlement expansion.

Without a settlement freeze and the eventual dismantlement of settlements, there will be no Palestinian state to negotiate and no two-state solution left to speak of.

Israel's position on settlements was nothing other than a failure of Israel to implement a comprehensive settlement freeze as it is required to do under the 2003 road map. Since 2003, the settler population in the West Bank has increased by 73,000 settlers or 17 percent.

Erakat then targeted Washington, "If America cannot get Israel to implement a settlement freeze, what chance do Palestinians have of reaching agreement with Israel on permanent status issues?"

He told CNN's Christiane Amanpour that he believed Abbas was serious about not running for a new term as President, "He feels betrayed by Arabs, Israelis, some Palestinians, and to a certain extent by the Americans."

Later, Abbas' spokesman Nabil Abu Rdainah stepped in. He criticized Washington and called for the Arab League to formulate a "unified Palestinian-Arab position" on the stalled peace process:

There can be no excuse for the continuation of settlements, which is really the main obstacle in the way of any credible peace process.

The negotiations are in a state of paralysis, and the result of Israel's intransigence and America's back-peddling is that there is no hope of negotiations on the horizon.

In Cairo, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned Israel that its actions in East Jerusalem and other Arab areas were "derailing" peace efforts that would have a "catastrophic" effect on the region. Abdullah and Mubarak "stressed the need for an immediate cessation of Israeli unilateral actions, particularly the building of settlements and jeopardising the identity of Jerusalem and holy places, which could only derail the chances of peaces."

On the other side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for Palestinians to "get a grip" and drop their demand for a full halt on the settlements. Confidently using Clinton's "just start the negotiations with or without preconditions" statement, Netanyahu said:

We really hope that the Palestinians will come to their senses and enter the process. The peace process is important and is an Israeli and Palestinian interest. We hope that, as we are ready to begin the talks without delay, we will find the Palestinians hold a parallel position.

We've done things that have not been done until today, although while we are taking steps toward negotiations, we have encountered preconditions demanded by the Palestinian side, which were never demanded before.

Beginning negotiations is important to us, but it is no less important to the Palestinians. We are committed to negotiations, and we hope that the Palestinians will lift the precondition.

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On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Abu Dhabi and with Israeli leaders in Jerusalem.

During their meeting, Abbas told Clinton that there would be no new negotiations unless Israel froze the building of settlements.

The chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat said Clinton had proposed a formula based on final-status talks, to be launched in accordance with an understanding on settlement construction reached between US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. However, for Erakat, there was no progress in the "frank and difficult" talks with Clinton:

This [proposal] is a non-starter. And that's why it's unlikely to restart negotiations. The gap between us was very deep and is widening even more.

This was a sharp contrast to Clinton's portrayal of her talks with Abbas as "very useful."

In Jerusalem, Clinton met Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to consider the future of the peace talks and the Iranian nuclear issue. Her strategy, despite the difficulties in Abu Dhabi, was to play up Israeli concessions regarding the settlement issue as "unprecedented":

What the Prime Minister has offered in specifics of a restraint on the policy of settlements which he has just described is unprecedented in the context of prior to negotiations.

It's also the fact that for forty years, Presidents of both parties have questioned the legitimacy of settlements, but I think that where we are right now is to try to get into the negotiations. The Prime Minister will be able to present his government's proposal about what they are doing regarding settlements which I think when fully explained will be seen as being not only unprecedented in response to many of the concerns that have been expressed.

Netanyahu blamed the Palestinian side by calling them as "the other side" and said that Israel is ready to enter into peace talks without preconditions but not "the other side." He continued: "We think we should sit around that negotiating table right away."

On the Iranian issue, Clinton warned Tehran that time is limited on nuclear discussions:

We are willing to work toward creative outcomes, like shipping out the low-enriched uranium to be reprocessed outside of Iran, but we are not going to wait forever.

Patience does have finally its limits and it is time for Iran to fulfill its obligations and responsibilities to the international community and accepting this deal would be a good beginning.

Clinton will return to Washington declared that the process for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement is still on track, but it is clear that Abbas is rejecting both the Obama Administration's rhetoric and the Israeli claim that it is "the one ready for negotiations without any preconditions". Abbas is under heavy criticisms, even from inside his Fatah Party, over his initial position on the Goldstone Report on Gaza and the increasing restrictions in East Jerusalem by Israeli authorities. There is no still reconciliation agreement with Hamas. On top of this, there is no progress in the status of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

So the Obama Administration's strategy, behind its public face, will be to use Abbas' position as leverage to get Israeli concessions. Yet, beyond the freeze on settlements, we still have no idea what these are.

To be blunt, how does Washington avoid a dead end in its Middle Eastern journey?