Middle East Analysis: A Restoration of Relations between Turkey and Israel?

Middle East Inside Line: An Israeli Truce with Hamas?
Turkey’s Erdogan to Israel: “Syria Will Never Come to Table without Me!”
Turkey’s Concern over the First European Union President

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On Sunday, Israel's Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer --- the only Cabinet member to attend  Turkey’s Republic Day reception --- is flying to Ankara to secure an $183 million commercial deal. Before his departure, he said: "Turkey has a very special place in my heart and special relationship with Israel. As a democratic Muslim country, Turkey has the ability to bridge the gaps between us and our neighbors and help promote normalization and coexistence in the region."

Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul issued an ultimatum to Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems to fulfill the long-delayed supply of 10 unmanned aerial vehicles to the Turkish military within the next 50 days. He warned, "If this letter does not bear fruit either, the tender may be canceled. But there is no cancellation at the moment."

So the immediate deal is commercial links and an easing of Israel's military restrictions on Turkey. However, Ben-Eliezer may have another issue on the agenda.  Is Israel prepared to propose Turkey's mediation between Damascus and Tel Aviv in return for a normalization of relationsrestoring the position from before the Gaza War? Ben-Eliezer said, "I hope my economic and political talks will make it possible to get the important relations between Israel and its Turkish strategic partner back on track. Turkey has special ties with Israel, and as a regional and democratic-Muslim power."
And if so, is this the end of French adventurism in the Middle East or merely a tactical manoeuvre to decrease the tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv? Given that talks between Syria and Israel have been stuck due to the "no pre-condition" pre-condition and given that Turkey has been following a "zero-problem" policy with its neighbours, how sustainable is Ankara's "honesty" towards Tel Aviv?

Turkey's Erdogan to Israel: "Syria Will Never Come to Table without Me!"

Israel-Syria-Palestine: Sarkozy the Mediator?

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On Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that, although Israel no longer trusts Turkey to mediate talks with Syria, Damascus would not accept France as an alternative: "On this issue (of mediation), Israel's stance is that it doesn't trust us. Former Israeli prime minister Olmert trusted Turkey, but [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu doesn't trust us. That's his choice.

"Now France is trying to take up the role we had. I'm not sure what kind of stance [Syrian President] Bashar Assad will take, but from what I've heard from him, they're not going to accept something like this."

Israel-Syria-Palestine: Sarkozy the Mediator?

Middle East Talks: Netanyahu-Sarkozy Alliance To Exclude Turkey?
Syria: Assad Interview with France 2 TV

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Is French President Nicolas Sarkozy stepping in as the "honest broker" for Israel-Syria talks? In Saudi Arabia for a two-day visit, Sarkozy --- who has just met with Syrian President Bashir al-Assad and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu in separate meetings --- said: "The deadlock that we find ourselves in today is very worrying. I told both Assad and Netanyahu that France is ready to facilitate a restart of the talks if both parties thought we could help in this effort."

Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was in Amman on Tuesday for talks with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. On Wednesday, he is going to Israel to hold a meeting on the prospect of peace talks.

Middle East Talks: Netanyahu-Sarkozy Alliance To Exclude Turkey?

On Friday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was in Paris and held a meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Assad dismissed direct talks with Israel but reiterated his country's position that "Syria is ready to talk to Israel under the mediation of Turkey." Assad said:

If Mr. Netanyahu is serious, he can send his teams of experts, we will send our teams of experts to Turkey. They can then talk, if they are really interested in peace.

Assad was trying to convert Paris's willingness to be a mediator into a stimulus to encourage Israel to start peace talks in Ankara. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu created trouble for Turkey. On Sunday, Netanyahu said:

Israel is prepared to hold negotiations without precondition with the Syrians. I prefer direct talks, but if [they are] with a mediator then it must be fair. The Turkish prime minister [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] has not strengthened his image as an objective, fair mediator.

If France is willing to serve as mediator, Israel would be willing.

Sarkozy is trying both to fix France's relationship with Israel and to gain a leverage by playing as a mediator in the Middle East; Assad's manoeuvres could not save Erdogan this time!  So, how are Assad and Erdogan going to behave now Sarkozy has the power to dynamize the peace talks between Israel and Palestine? The next moves are vitally important.

Syria: Assad Interview with France 2 TV

After his visit to Paris this week, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad was interviewed by Laurent Delahousse of France 2 Television. (France 2 video news page here, direct link to video here):

DELAHOUSSE: Good evening, Mr President, Thank you for accepting our invitation. First of all, today you met the [French] President Nicolas Sarkozy. It's not the first time, [as Sarkozy] went to Syria twice. [Note: al-Assad also came to France on 14 July] How would you describe the relationship today between our two countries, France and Syria ?

AL-ASSAD: With Nicolas Sarkozy, we wished to base our relationship on frankness and transparency. We have built a climate of confidence between us, between France and Syria. Together, we can play a positive and constructive role on questions that concern us in international situations, at least in the Middle East.

DELAHOUSSE: Mr President, this visit today was because, it's in a particular context, for you, it is  urgent in that the peace process in the Middle East is started again. Do you agree that the peace process is simply blocked today?

AL-ASSAD: This process is effectively blocked, at least since the Israeli attack on Gaza at the beginning of the year. We should always think about the interest of stability for the interest  of peace. And peace, of course, leads to stability. I'm rather inclined towards optimism, even if there is no Israeli partner, and that's what we discussed with Mr Sarkozy.

DELAHOUSSE: If you came today to see and consult with President Sarkozy, does that mean that you are counting on France to have a role in this peace process?

AL-ASSAD: Yes, France can play an important role. They should defend the mediator role of Turkey, and persuade Israel to return to the negotiating table, with the Turkish mediator. We discussed this  with President Sarkozy and we think he is able to [help] within the framework of his relations with Israel.

DELAHOUSSE: Mr President, it's now a year that Barak Obama has been President of the US, we may think from what you say for a while that you seem to be disappointed with his diplomacy, is this the case or not?

AL-ASSAD: (laughs a bit) We quite agree with the main lines of what he said before he was President, and since he is President, but when we see the result, countries and peoples ask for a plan of action. How to transform this positive talk that we heard into a reality on the field. I can't talk about deception, it's less than a year that President Obama is in power, I think therefore that we must give more time to Obama.

But I can say that the peoples of the Middle East are beginning to lose hope. I hope they are wrong.

DELAHOUSSE: Mr President, you are convinced today that the Iranian nuclear program is only peaceful and not military ?

AL-ASSAD: For years we have heard that Iran wants the nuclear bomb, in one year, two, or three years. The crisis began in 2003, and six years later we still hear about a level of uranium enrichment of 5% [that Iran is reaching]. For medical enrichment, you need a level of 20%, and for military levels you need more that 90%. How can one believe that there is a military programme? Logically it's not convincing.

I say to Europe not to believe the Americans, that [attitude of Washington] goes back to in fact the Bush Administration.

DELAHOUSSE: Mr President, France has thanked you twice for the case of Clotilde Reiss [the French student detained in Iran in the post-election crisis]. Do you think that she will freely be able to come back to France? Have you talked to President Sarkozy about this question?

AL ASSAD: I can't say precisely if Clotilde Reiss will be able to come back to France, it depends on Iran and France. We have transmitted what President Sarzozy has said to Iran in the last few months, but we haven't intervened since. [Silence

DELAHOUSSE: Mr President, do you fear a new esclalation of violence in the region?

AL ASSAD: The area today, when we speak of the Israel-Arab conflict, is still a region  between peace and war  This situation can't continue. It can only end with peace or a war. If the war doesn't happen, there will be extremism. Both hypotheses are bad, let's hope that there will be negotiations and measures that will lead to peace and normal relations in the whole region.

DELAHOUSSE: Thank you, Mr President, for answering our questions.